Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldgroaner]

Typical forecast: the economy goes through a shock in 2017 then recovers in 2018 and grows after that.
Graph from: SocialEurope.

we usually do better than forecast. Also, growth is proportional to the number of immigrants.
I reckon every 200,000 immigrants add 1% to growth.

And this is worth leaving the EU for? how insane is that?

 

[oldgroaner]

I agree, I'm not worried about there being cliff edge. Apart from any other factor, we may be able to negotiate a transition period since that would benefit both sides, and that would smooth any change.

My concern is more the prospect of a long slow decline, since that is what we were so good at before we joined the EU.
.

And History will, as History does, repeat itself (Bigly as someone might say)

 

[Woosh]

And this is worth leaving the EU for? how insane is that?

OG, 52% voted for brexit and they are not insane. It's you who shut your own eyes to other people's point of view.
You are of course entitled to your view, but why do you call people who disagree with you idiots or insane? Would you like to be called idiot or insane yourself?
Have you noticed I have never insulted you or oldtom in return?

 

[oldtom]

And this is worth leaving the EU for? how insane is that?

Very!

The Woosh man, not wanting to be thought a fool, jumped on to the bandwagon......

'The king is in the altogether, the altogether.........'

He probably believes in the tooth fairy too!

Tom

 

[Woosh]

The Woosh man, not wanting to be thought a fool, jumped on to the bandwagon......

Of course I do not want to be thought a fool, but as far as jumping on the wagon is concerned, I can't see what can be achieved by exaggeration.
I regard your recent posts on benefits for the economically inactive EU immigrants and running like lemmings over a cliff edge as exaggerations.
This thread is about facts. Let's stay focussed on them.

 

[tillson]

Further to my previous response to your idiotic remark, even Mrs Mayhem's own backbenchers realise how damaging her dogmatic policy on CUTS to benefits received by disabled people are.

This is how it has been recorded in 'The Canary', a non-tory publication:

http://www.thecanary.co/2017/02/27/theresa-may-facing-defeat-unpopular-policy-hands-mutinous-tory-mps/

Tom

old tom, you must stop reading The Canary. I can tell that it's affecting your state of mental wellbeing and your perception of what is taking place around you. Your posts are becoming increasingly erratic and slightly more aggressive.

As I said earlier, the PIP payment is not being cut. The government are taking steps to look at whether it should be extended to more people than are currently in receipt of the payment. You can't cut something that was never there in the first place.

 

[Kudoscycles]

We'll get to know roughly the direction of the new relationship and the size of the divorce bill by the end of the year. The boffins can then work out where we are going.
Remainers talk a lot about the dangers that do not affect the vast majority of people who voted for brexit like the cliff edge. Only some bankers may be worried. If they want to change brexiters' mind, the message must be 'inflation, inflation, inflation'.

Nobody voted to pay 60 billion euros on the divorce.....most thought that leaving the EU would give £11 billion back to the NHS (red bus).
The weakness of the £ is making that bill bigger.
I dont think its going to go down well with Leavers if we have to pay anything to leave,never mind 60 billion....be interesting how Theresa May sells that bill to us all?
Still its all worthwhile isnt it ???????
KudosDave

 

[oldgroaner]

OG, 52% voted for brexit and they are not insane. It's you who shut your own eyes to other people's point of view.
You are of course entitled to your view, but why do you call people who disagree with you idiots or insane? Would you like to be called idiot or insane yourself?
Have you noticed I have never insulted you or oldtom in return?

For crying out loud!
And 48% Voted against it, and no one wants to know about their point of view do they?
And while we are at the numbers game, only 25% of the population voted for Brexit.
So at best it was a minority decision that will be foisted on three quarters of the population, whether they like it or not
Having got that little excercise in statistics out of the way let's examine what took place.
Liars on Both sides created a vast cloud of lies, distortions and half truths, and that against a background of a generation long campaign by Government and Press to blame the EU for a situation that you have pointed out can actually by laid at the door of Conservative Policies not the EU.
In this toxic atmosphere of lies and promises that were not honoured
People were asked to vote: they knew little or nothing of the implications and there is NO WAY that you can sensibly propose that the greater mass did understand, as their ignorance of how the EU is organised was profound, and now this
"You are of course entitled to your view, but why do you call people who disagree with you idiots or insane? Would you like to be called idiot or insane yourself?"

Where exactly have I done that? please read my posts and refrain from putting a spin on them, and by the by I can actually quote posts where I have been directly called "idiot" and "insane"

This is exactly what I posted
And this is worth leaving the EU for? how insane is that?
Do you see that as being a personal insult in some way?
How odd, so criticising a point of view conflates with calling the person that holds it an idiot, and insulting them, does it?

This is dangerously right wing thinking, beware of going there,
"Do not commit the Heresy of criticising Brexit hmm?
Unfortunately I do understand your point of view, but that doesn't make me regard it as rational, humane or offering any hope for the future for the greater mass of the Public.

 

[Kudoscycles]

This packaged the current situation nicely.....

Ah, but “the people have spoken”, have they not? Well, it is a fine democratic tradition that, after they have spoken in a general election, the people can speak again, often with a somewhat different view. It was therefore a most welcome contribution to the Lords’ debate on Brexit last week when Lord Butler of Brockwell, the former cabinet secretary, said: “My lords, one has to ask why those who base their arguments for Brexit on the will of the people are now opposed to consulting the people on the outcome of the negotiations. One has to suspect that they fear that they will get a different answer.”


The problem is that much damage is likely to be wreaked meanwhile.

Personally, I think it would be an act of real statesmanship if, as things go from bad to worse in the next year, May were to address the nation and say that, while in good faith she had tried to carry out the will of the people, she had come to the view that Brexit would after all be a historic, calamitous mistake.
quote from the Guardian.

One can live in hope,but what has statesmanship got to do with politics at the moment????
It looks like we have to jump over the cliff just to find out how much it hurts.
Will May pick up the pieces afterwards?
KudosDave

 

[Woosh]

For crying out loud!

brexit is the will of this parliament. Are you going to call parliament insane and idiotic too?
The point is, brexit is not terminal.
Sooner or later, it will come to a point where we as a nation will have to take a decision, either be a wholehearted, fully participant member in the European federation project or we will have to leave.
If we leave in 10 years time, who says that it will be any easier?

 

[flecc]

Sooner or later, it will come to a point where we as a nation will have to take a decision, either be a wholehearted, fully participant member in the European federation project or we will have to leave.

I don't think this is necessarily true. The growing inherent problems for the federation project are such that it will be easier to split into a two tier Europe first. This dodges most of the problems and will allow the core group to integrate fully, leaving the second tier members to fully join over time as and if they catch up.
.

 

[anotherkiwi]

I don't think this is necessarily true. The growing inherent problems for the federation project are such that it will be easier to split into a two tier Europe first. This dodges most of the problems and will allow the core group to integrate fully, leaving the second tier members to fully join over time as and if they catch up.
.

There is talk on this side of the water of a federation of France and Germany as the future EU "core". I am sure that Belgium and the Netherlands might want to be in the core as well. Just a couple of elections to get out of the way.

 

[Woosh]

I am pretty certain that if it were not for the enlarged EU, there wouldn't be enough support to leave.

 

[oldgroaner]

brexit is the will of this parliament. Are you going to call parliament insane and idiotic too?
The point is, brexit is not terminal.
Sooner or later, it will come to a point where we as a nation will have to take a decision, either be a wholehearted, fully participant member in the European federation project or we will have to leave.
If we leave in 10 years time, who says that it will be any easier?

Are you going to call parliament insane and idiotic too?
How does Yes sound to you? it sounds good to me.
Why should Parliament necessarily not be both insane and idiotic? it has been not merely either, but both of these things on a regular basis throughout my lifetime.
Do I have to provide a list? OK, I won't bother, but any list of Parliament's stupid insane and idiotic acts should include Brexit, right at the very top.
Have you ever for just a moment asked yourself what motive they have in wanting it?
Is it some suddenly and completely out of character Humanitarian and Noble impulse?

Here is an insight on the process
"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies."
Groucho Marx

 

[oldgroaner]

I am pretty certain that if it were not for the enlarged EU, there wouldn't be enough support to leave.

How ironic that the Government were keen on the enlargement , don't you think?

 

[Jimod]

brexit is the will of this parliament. Are you going to call parliament insane and idiotic too?

The insanity of parliament was obvious years before brexit was invented.

 

[Woosh]

the people can speak again, often with a somewhat different view.

That would be too easy or OG and oldtom.
No, the idiots and insane must remain idiotic and insane so that OG and oldtom can continue to feel intellectually superior.

 

[Woosh]

Why should Parliament necessarily not be both insane and idiotic?

Surprisingly, although I think you are wrong, I am less affected by reading your insults against parliament than when you insult ordinary people that you have never met or heard of.
May be I identify myself one with the plebs.

 

[Kudoscycles]

This parliament is not idiotic,actually they have been quite clever in threatening parliament to abide by the wishes of about 80 right wingers and making sure that the current will of the people has no voice or power.
It reminds me how clever Hitler harnessed the discontent of the German people who were disgruntled of their lot and Hitler promised them their pride and wealth back.
Hitler,of course,used military to expand the country and steal the land and wealth expected by the German people. As he achieved military success he expanded his power base and anyone who questioned him,was deemed 'enemies of the people'......remind you of someone?
Ultimately,Hitler failed and then the country was destroyed.
If Brexit doesn't bring pride and wealth to the disgruntled,what will May give the people,let them 'eat cake'
John Major is trying to tell the people that their expectations of Brexit is being overplayed by May and that she is not being honest about the cost of Brexit....I suspect the Brexiters and their dictator will talk him down and even if he talks sense they don't want to listen to him.
KudosDave

 

[oldgroaner]

That would be too easy or OG and oldtom.
No, the idiots and insane must remain idiotic and insane so that OG and oldtom can continue to feel intellectually superior.

Hang on a minute, only a post or two ago you were complaining that we were calling you and Brexit Voters idiotic and insane.
Now you are asserting that Brexit voters are in fact both of those things?
Additionally we are accused of feeling intellectually superior too?

We didn't and we aren't
I assume that post was meant to be humorous?