Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldtom]

You aren't really winning anyone over with this attitude are you? BREXIT continues, but with greater resolve and more certainty.

I have never expected to win anyone over. Why? Because the kind of people who align themselves with liars, cheats and buffoons yet still believe the perverse message disseminated by charlatans, simply do not have the basic intellect required to be persuaded by common sense.

You know the saying: 'There's none so blind as those who will not see.'

If the present, fascist administration actually achieve their stated aim of secession from the EU, it will prove to be a pyrrhic victory, of that I am certain.

Tom

 

[oldgroaner]

More insults. Everyone who has a different opinion to old tom or old groaner is an idiot. Keep them coming, treat your opponents with contempt and you will be rewarded with crushing defeat. You aren't really winning anyone over with this attitude are you? BREXIT continues, but with greater resolve and more certainty.

Oh come now tillson, when have I called you an idiot?
At the very worst I have called some of your statements idiotic, and that is not the same thing at all, you know I hold your intelligence in high regard.
And my purpose has never been "winning anyone over" has it.
My purpose is no more or less than to warn you that you are intent on following a dangerous and foolish path.

 

[oldtom]

There is no need to look for a guarantee. We have projections from both camps, by very learned people. They differ only on projected economic growth in the region of 1%-2% which will recover when future governments resolve the current uncertainty.
There won't be a recession and EU immigrants will continue to come for the foreseeable future. Where is the cliff edge?

This post just reveals the complete lunacy prevalent among 'Brexidiots'.

You provide selected figures and make it seem like it's a good thing. We can have those figures and better by not leaving the EU and a guarantee as well!

You predicting no recession is up there with Farage predicting a UKIP victory at Stoke and you now accept that EU citizens will continue to come here - do you have a crystal ball? What is the point of exiting the EU without the equipment required to fight for a share of global trade when we are doing very nicely in that regard just as we are?

So, the analogy remains relevant: It's like jumping off a cliff blindfolded with no idea how far down the rocks are but hoping and praying for a soft landing somehow not too far down.

At least some senior figures in the tory party are now starting to declare a lack of confidence in the direction this 'Brexit' is taking under May's helmsmanship - Heseltine even!.....I never thought I'd see the day that he might prove to be an obstacle to the progress of any tory policy but he is clearly not buying into the notion that any deal will do and May and her team cannot simply just railroad it through.

Tom

 

[Woosh]

I copy here the BoE's forecast, source: ONS

We are heading for growth between 2.3% +/- 2%.
Where is the cliff edge that you are so worried about?
Your lack of objectivity is evident.

 

[oldgroaner]

I copy here the BoE's forecast, source: ONS

We are heading for growth between 2.3% +/- 2%.
Where is the cliff edge that you are so worried about?
Your lack of objectivity is evident.

Tell me why do you imagine this "Growth" will occur, when the only thing keeping the so call "Brexit Boom" going is the fact that consumers are spending money as if it is going out of fashion?

And where are we going to sell goods that we don't currently make, using Trade Deals we haven't got yet, to?

And that is assuming (Which we can't) that the Financial Swindles worked from London will continue without suffering any setbacks?

You are looking at an Extremely "Best Case Scenario" so while you are at it, why not factor in a sudden Discovery of Gold or Uranium in the old Cornish mines , or do these so optimistic Projections already have assumed that?

Here is an alternative view not sponsored by the Leave Campaign
FT verdict
With clear and easily specified economic risks in the short and medium- term, Brexit does not easily pass any cost-benefit analysis.

Michael Saunders, an economist at Citigroup, anticipates a series of three big shocks: “Worse export performance due to inferior EU access for business and financial services; lower potential growth and lower consumer spending from reduced migration inflows; and weaker investment growth, reflecting the above factors plus extra uncertainty.” This would hit the government budget, requiring higher taxes or lower public spending amid higher costs of financing the deficit, he adds.

Remind me, who's level of objectivity is suspect?

 

[Woosh]

Remind me, who's level of objectivity is suspect?

They are the most recent forecasts from the Bank of England, as you can see, dated Feb 2017.
I always fact check everything I post.
That's the simplest way not to be hoodwinked by propaganda.

 

[flecc]

New fleet of £8bn Royal Navy warships to be fitted with launchers that CANNOT fire British missiles
The frigates have been designed with an American style missile system, but the UK has no ammo for it
Critics say it will cost a fortune to buy new Tomahawk missiles which can be used with the MK-41 silos – and cast doubt on whether it will happen at all.

Well it's at least consistent, we're building two aircraft carriers but have no planes for them. So we intend to buy the prohibitively expensive American F35s, but only for one boat, we can't afford to equip and run two of the carriers.

One day the deluded morons who populate our UK governments will wake up to the fact that we are no longer a first world power and stop squandering money in these ways. The great majority of the world's main 300 nations don't, yet don't feel threatened by not having such arms.
.

 

[Woosh]

how about us being blackmailed by the USA into spending the money we haven't got?

 

[flecc]

They are the most recent forecasts from the Bank of England, as you can see, dated Feb 2017.

But not covering Brexit, only the two year negotiating period while we are still in and benefitting from EU membership.

it's the years once we depart that are in question.
.

 

[flecc]

how about us being blackmailed by the USA into spending the money we haven't got?

Anyone who gives in to any blackmail is stupid. The French have a long history of standing firm against US pressures, and it's never hurt them.
.

 

[Woosh]

We'll get to know roughly the direction of the new relationship and the size of the divorce bill by the end of the year. The boffins can then work out where we are going.
Remainers talk a lot about the dangers that do not affect the vast majority of people who voted for brexit like the cliff edge. Only some bankers may be worried. If they want to change brexiters' mind, the message must be 'inflation, inflation, inflation'.

 

[oldtom]

It's not a cut. It's a proposal to curtail expansion. That's quite different to a cut.

Your lack of knowledge Tillson is exceeded only by your lack of compassion for your fellow man but that is perfectly in keeping with fascist ideology so no surprise there!

Perhaps you'd like to explain 'curtailment of expanson' to the family and friends of Marie Lopez. I'm sure they'd welcome your view on PIP and all the other benefits being removed from needy people.

http://voxpoliticalonline.com/2017/02/26/scandalous-and-homicidal-government-cuts-force-woman-to-seek-assisted-suicide/

Tom

 

[oldgroaner]

They are the most recent forecasts from the Bank of England, as you can see, dated Feb 2017.
I always fact check everything I post.
That's the simplest way not to be hoodwinked by propaganda.

Apparently it didn't work in this case perhaps they didn't fancy speculating after brexit?

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[Woosh]

Apparently it didn't work in this case perhaps they didn't fancy speculating after brexit?

Typical forecast: the economy goes through a shock in 2017 then recovers in 2018 and grows after that.
Graph from: SocialEurope.

we usually do better than forecast. Also, growth is proportional to the number of immigrants.
I reckon every 200,000 immigrants add 1% to growth.

 

[flecc]

I see nothing optimistic in this graph, quite the opposite. Currently nearly imitating the 2008 recession, the projected growth is only to well below the overall norm for the whole period. And still only projected to just beyond the possible end of the negotiations.
.

 

[Woosh]

The graph is published by SocialEurope.
You have to convert from Euro to Pound to reflect the UK's consumers' point of view. The effect of currency conversion will add about 7% to 9% to the plot from July 2016 onward. Thanks to devaluation, we avoided the recession altogether. No recession, no cliff edge as far as ordinary people are concerned.

 

[flecc]

The graph is published by SocialEurope.
You have to convert from Euro to Pound to reflect the UK's consumers' point of view. The effect of currency conversion will add about 7% to 9% to the plot from July 2016 onward. Thanks to devaluation, we avoided the recession altogether. No recession, no cliff edge as far as ordinary people are concerned.

None of which nullifies my criticism of the trends. We'd have been in a much better position without the Brexit vote.
.

 

[Woosh]

don't I know it! We are helping our daughter to buy a flat in Paris and the exchange rate makes me cry. The point is, for ordinary people, the pain is no where as bad as remainers predicted and there won't be a cliff edge for the vast majority.

 

[flecc]

there won't be a cliff edge for the vast majority.

I agree, I'm not worried about there being cliff edge. Apart from any other factor, we may be able to negotiate a transition period since that would benefit both sides, and that would smooth any change.

My concern is more the prospect of a long slow decline, since that is what we were so good at before we joined the EU.
.

 

[oldtom]

It's not a cut. It's a proposal to curtail expansion. That's quite different to a cut.

Further to my previous response to your idiotic remark, even Mrs Mayhem's own backbenchers realise how damaging her dogmatic policy on CUTS to benefits received by disabled people are.

This is how it has been recorded in 'The Canary', a non-tory publication:

http://www.thecanary.co/2017/02/27/theresa-may-facing-defeat-unpopular-policy-hands-mutinous-tory-mps/

Tom