Brexit, for once some facts.

[Woosh]

a free trade agreement could take as long as a decade.

that seems about right. Switzerland started negotiations with the EU in 1992, first bilateral agreement in 1999 (8 years), the next tranche in 2004 then 2010 as more agreements come on stream.
If we start in 2017, then it's reasonable to expect a new relationship to start in 2025. Until then, interim arrangements make sense.

 

[flecc]

that seems about right. Switzerland started negotiations with the EU in 1992, first bilateral agreement in 1999 (8 years), the next tranche in 2004 then 2010 as more agreements come on stream.
If we start in 2017, then it's reasonable to expect a new relationship to start in 2025. Until then, interim arrangements make sense.

But their 120 odd agreements do not include financial services which are essential for us, and the deal still includes freedom of movement, as the Swiss found out when they tried to restrict that and got punished for it.
.

 

[Woosh]

The Swiss are currently proposing that jobs must be filled first by local people. That seems to win over the EU's intransigence on FOM. It could well be the solution for us too.

 

[oldgroaner]

From the BBC
"
Brexit: Warning firms could leave City over uncertainty
Financial services firms could quit the City unless a transitional Brexit deal is secured, ministers have been warned.

I can quite see their point, they will be able to relocate and get better terms for moving into the EU if there is no RUSH to do so, but all this will mean is...
Financial Services Companies will still leave the UK but suffer less loss in the process, at a time of their Convenience.
After all what possible reason could they have to stay?

 

[oldgroaner]

The Swiss are currently proposing that jobs must be filled first by local people. That seems to win over the EU's intransigence on FOM. It could well be the solution for us too.

And it would if you think about it sink Brexit without a trace if that is acceptable.
Excellent!

Somehow such a logical answer will meet implacable opposition I suspect.

 

[Kudoscycles]

This whole Brexit experiment is looking crazier on a daily basis....I didn't realise that Brits living in Europe were not given a vote in the referendum,that's 1.2 million,who were more affected than most of us and most would have probably voted Remain.
Lloyds of London,insurers of the world's shipping,will move to Europe if Brexit does not include EU passporting,Lloyds is such a valued business it would be a tragedy to lose it,such history.
Let's be honest,most who voted Brexit voted to lower immigration,I don't see immigration as bad for our country but understand the concerns of those who think our country is becoming crowded. However,I don't remember anything on the voting form that warned that voting leave would make us poorer and immigration v poverty,I would vote for immigration.
My business has hardly changed prices for 5 years but today I signed off an average of 10% price rises,effective January 1,on 4000 products,no choice the £ v dollar seems to be stuck at about 1.25....my competitors are raising prices similarly....we are all agreed that there will be no pay rises until Brexit is finished or scrapped....so Brexit is going to hurt everyone,is it worth it ?
KudosDave

 

[oldgroaner]

This whole Brexit experiment is looking crazier on a daily basis....I didn't realise that Brits living in Europe were not given a vote in the referendum,that's 1.2 million,who were more affected than most of us and most would have probably voted Remain.
Lloyds of London,insurers of the world's shipping,will move to Europe if Brexit does not include EU passporting,Lloyds is such a valued business it would be a tragedy to lose it,such history.
Let's be honest,most who voted Brexit voted to lower immigration,I don't see immigration as bad for our country but understand the concerns of those who think our country is becoming crowded. However,I don't remember anything on the voting form that warned that voting leave would make us poorer and immigration v poverty,I would vote for immigration.
My business has hardly changed prices for 5 years but today I signed off an average of 10% price rises,effective January 1,on 4000 products,no choice the £ v dollar seems to be stuck at about 1.25....my competitors are raising prices similarly....we are all agreed that there will be no pay rises until Brexit is finished or scrapped....so Brexit is going to hurt everyone,is it worth it ?
KudosDave

The question we should be asking is what is the motive behind the media and politicians who are pushing for it?
When so clearly it is not in the public interest.
Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[Woosh]

...we are all agreed that there will be no pay rises until Brexit is finished or scrapped....so Brexit is going to hurt everyone,is it worth it ?
KudosDave

Brexit brings into the open fractures in our politics.
Although it will hurt a bit financially, I suspect it is still the only solution for change.

 

[oldgroaner]

Brexit brings into the open fractures in our politics.
Although it will hurt a bit financially, I suspect it is still the only solution for change.

Brexit is a symptomatic Spasm, not a solution, rather it is a reaction that highlights how low quality the Government of this nation has been for years.
It is the wrong tool employed by unskilled hands for the wrong reasons.
All it offers is more power to the wrongdoers at the expense of the victims, and frankly no good can come of it.
Change needs to be for the better not for its own sake, or for individuals to profit at the expense of the public, which is what the Champions of this benighted experiment intend.

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[oldgroaner]

From the Idependent
"
Lloyd's of London leads business Brexodus from Britain
Market has become one of the first financial outfits to firm up plans to shift operations out of London "
So beginneth the lesson, but will anyone learn from it?

 

[anotherkiwi]

They will fit in nicely in Rotterdam, Antwerp or Hamburg. London ceased being a major port decades ago, back to their roots I say!

 

[oldgroaner]

They will fit in nicely in Rotterdam, Antwerp or Hamburg. London ceased being a major port decades ago, back to their roots I say!

It's cruel to mock the afflicted you know! consider yourself spoken firmly to!

 

[Kudoscycles]

Brexit brings into the open fractures in our politics.
Although it will hurt a bit financially, I suspect it is still the only solution for change.

The primary fracture was,and still is,in the Tory party....what Brexit has done is to highlight that split and spread it to the rest of the country.
As for the financial hit,Woosh and Kudos sell most of their bikes in the UK,so export tariffs to the EU (if they happen) would not effect us. The big hit is the pound v US dollar,seems stuck at about 1.25,that has made our import costs higher. But companies that export a lot will find exports to the EU more complex and more expensive.
Why did we need change,I found everything up to June 23 ok,now 50% of the country seems to want to fight with the other 50%???
Is Trex ok,he hasn't posted on here for some time?
Happy Christmas
KudosDave

 

[tillson]

Brexit is a symptomatic Spasm, not a solution, rather it is a reaction that highlights how low quality the Government of this nation has been for years.
It is the wrong tool employed by unskilled hands for the wrong reasons.
All it offers is more power to the wrongdoers at the expense of the victims, and frankly no good can come of it.
Change needs to be for the better not for its own sake, or for individuals to profit at the expense of the public, which is what the Champions of this benighted experiment intend.

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

A good post.

 

[Kudoscycles]

I found the terms of Article 50,it is by no means one-sided ....

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Point 2 is interesting ....'setting out the arrangements for withdrawal,taking account its future relationships with the Union'......'it shall be concluded by a qualifying majority,after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament'.
In other words if the EU doesn't get a good future relationship and persuade 14 member states that it is in their interest,leaving may not be in our hands,bet the Leavers didn't know that when they ticked Leave.!!!!
Wonder what we have to do to get back in....re Article 49 ????
KudosDave

 

[oldgroaner]

Another Independent headline
"
Failure to plan for Brexit talks collapsing 'gross negligence', Foreign Affairs Committee warns
The Government has refused to tells MPs if it has a plan for the failure of talks.

“It is hard to believe that the Government has done no thinking about the legal and technical issues regarding a potential ‘no deal’. Understanding the implications of this entirely possible outcome helps minimise uncertainty."

What is worse than not having a plan? not having a plan B either.
This is a Government of fools and knaves

 

[oldgroaner]

Point 2 is interesting ....'setting out the arrangements for withdrawal,taking account its future relationships with the Union'......'it shall be concluded by a qualifying majority,after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament'.
In other words if the EU doesn't get a good future relationship and persuade 14 member states that it is in their interest,leaving may not be in our hands,bet the Leavers didn't know that when they ticked Leave.!!!!
Wonder what we have to do to get back in....re Article 49 ????
KudosDave

To be honest I didn't interpret it that way, nonetheless that could be a veritable gold mine for some ambitious lawyers to sharpen their teeth on!

 

[Lister]

We live in interesting times.
The Brexit campaign was fought on a tissue of lies.
This is now becoming clear even to the muddle headed, the exit issue will be fudged and during this time more truths will emerge about the reality of leaving a massive political, martial and economic union.
We know that the EU is in a muddle, but we should stay and help sort it out with the original Common Market countries.
There is no percentage in throwing toys out of the pram in a huff.

 

[oldgroaner]

We live in interesting times.
The Brexit campaign was fought on a tissue of lies.
This is now becoming clear even to the muddle headed, the exit issue will be fudged and during this time more truths will emerge about the reality of leaving a massive political, martial and economic union.
We know that the EU is in a muddle, but we should stay and help sort it out with the original Common Market countries.
There is no percentage in throwing toys out of the pram in a huff.

All true!

 

[oldgroaner]

A good post.

Thank you my friend.