Why we wont leave..
Even for an optimistic Brexiteer , the last few days have been difficult. Many people who voted out are already feeling a bit betrayed as certain fundamental truths sink in. The “uncertainty” is already affecting the real economy as we see. Project Fear probably understated some of the dangers, though overstated others absurdly, the latter as former Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King has said (a calm voice in these frenetic times).
Before long this uncertainty will feed through even more concretely from the slightly abstract world of financial markets and exchange rates through to jobs, savings, and, above all, the value of people’s homes, which is where most people’s wealth is stored (especially some of the less well-off voters who opted for “Leave”). This is really why I suspect Brexit won’t, in the end, come to pass – because most voters can’t afford it in the short run, whatever the longer term advantages. Call it blackmail by the financiers or the Establishment if you wish, but it is a fairly nasty ransom note all the same.
If there is a general election and Labour get in (strange as it may be) maybe with SNP and Lib Dem support, they will not want to apply to leave the EU formally without going back to Brussels for a deal. Indeed they would be quite desperate to do so and would claim the general election result gave them a mandate for that. We’d almost certainly have a second referendum then, and probably a narrow Remain win. As was recently reported triggering Article 50 is not a done deal,it can be reversed,so if May overcomes all the obstacles to trigger it (unlikely)then Corbyn could untrigger (is that a word)it.
We all know that if there was a referendum on holding a second referendum, the people would be in favour of having another vote. It is certainly the general view in Parliament, and of course we now have the Scottish and Irish dimensions to the problem now crystallising, as well as economic realities. People want to think again, and the politicians have a duty to let them.
Some of Boris’ Tory colleagues now think he didn’t believe a word of what he was saying in the campaign, and that the whole thing was just a vehicle for his ambition. Hence, perhaps, his confused flip-flopping on whether he wants us in the Single Market. If so, then one can see him executing an almighty U-turn in about six months’ time and recommending a Remain vote with him leading the opposite campaign to the one just gone. He has the shamelessness, ambition and dexterity to do just that, in true Churchillian style.
Just cannot imagine me voting Labour and letting Corbyn in! But voting for Boris,whats worse?
KudosDave
