But there are many forms of leaving if we do, and much of the discussion has been about that. At one extreme, leaving is only just outside the door.
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Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
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But it isn't is it? because we have no idea how our "lords and Masters" will mess around to please their paymasters, who may well think otherwise, and they will most likely do the exact opposite of what voters imagine they have gained as a guarantee.
Most likely outcome is that nominally we will be outside, with no influence on events, and paying through the nose for the privilege to trade as if still in, subject to EU Laws (which we can no longer have changed) and Freedom of Movement.
And won't there be a lot of Happy Bunnies in the Brexit Camp who thought the had got what they wanted, only to find it wasn't?
And the Remain camp will be equally disappointed at the lack of control we have over the EU.
No winner will emerge Except for the Elite as usual.
The only problem for the Elite after that will be who to blame when things go wrong.
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I understand all the points made, but I think we will be leaving.
The situation is like a firework that's not yet gone off. Call it the BREXIT firework. Cameron lit the fuse when he called the referendum, but the flash & bang hasn't yet happened, but we know it's coming. Whoever approaches the BREXIT firework to try and defuse it is going to get mortally wounded in the blast. I don't think we have any politicians brave enough to take on the defusing task.
I foresee them all running for cover, watching the inevitable pyrotechnic display and then re-emerging afterwards, taking credit if it's a success or pouring scorn on BREXIT if it fails.
Our leaving will be the UK based model, whatever that may be.
The situation is like a firework that's not yet gone off. Call it the BREXIT firework. Cameron lit the fuse when he called the referendum, but the flash & bang hasn't yet happened, but we know it's coming. Whoever approaches the BREXIT firework to try and defuse it is going to get mortally wounded in the blast. I don't think we have any politicians brave enough to take on the defusing task.
I foresee them all running for cover, watching the inevitable pyrotechnic display and then re-emerging afterwards, taking credit if it's a success or pouring scorn on BREXIT if it fails.
Our leaving will be the UK based model, whatever that may be.
I agree that is a likely outcome, though not certain, as forces other than the ones we can see are at work behind the scenes, and the person who triggers the exit process is in the same situation as anyone who tries to "defuse" it.
First we need to develop a strategy, then alternative plans, and cost them in terms of resources and personnel.
After that stage
The two difficulties seem to be
- Can we get good terms for leaving
- Can we convince the public to accept them, or try to impose them?
The problem there is in real terms we are a Babe in arms at this game, with a Government of incompetents who are not only unable to handle a job of this magnitude, and don't actually want the darned thing, but it would seem setting up the Pro Brexit people like Boris to take the fall if it comes.
May has talked the talk, but hasn't "Walked the walk" with these appointments.
Quite frankly there are insufficient MP's of the calibre required for such a major job even if they are recruited from every party in the Westminster menagerie.
the problem is David Davis is quite clear about what he wants
“Post Brexit a UK-German deal would include free access for their cars and industrial goods, in exchange for a deal on everything else. Similar deals would be reached with other key EU nations. France would want to protect £3 billion of food and wine exports. Italy, its £1 billion fashion exports. Poland its £3 billion manufacturing exports.”
He also clearly does not know that individual trade deals with EU members are not allowed. That's the general picture that the brexit team gives at the moment.
“Post Brexit a UK-German deal would include free access for their cars and industrial goods, in exchange for a deal on everything else. Similar deals would be reached with other key EU nations. France would want to protect £3 billion of food and wine exports. Italy, its £1 billion fashion exports. Poland its £3 billion manufacturing exports.”
He also clearly does not know that individual trade deals with EU members are not allowed. That's the general picture that the brexit team gives at the moment.
An example of the "other Forces" I mentioned is this proposal for a Federal Uk Parliamentary system diverting attention from the main event: surely such a time consuming idea should be kicked into touch till the main event is sorted, otherwise we will be "Waging a war on two fronts" one of which is a Civil War as well.
I fear that the Westminster Inmates have utterly lost sight of the ball.
And another bloody poll came up with this result
"The ComRes survey showed that more than half of Britons (53 per cent) think the UK will not exist in its current form in ten years' time."
And if that isn't enough to muddy the waters here comes another one
" A ComRes poll also showed 66 per cent of people think maintaining access to the single market should be a made a priority during negotiations. Only a third (31 per cent) want restricting freedom of movement to be at the top of the agenda."
And how well is that going to sit with the rank and file voters on both sides? it's like pouring petrol on a fire.
There seems to be a case for reviewing how Polls are being shall we say used for Political rather than informational purposes, they are in many ways a menace.
Somehow a level of Independence needs to be applied to them.
I fear that the Westminster Inmates have utterly lost sight of the ball.
And another bloody poll came up with this result
"The ComRes survey showed that more than half of Britons (53 per cent) think the UK will not exist in its current form in ten years' time."
And if that isn't enough to muddy the waters here comes another one
" A ComRes poll also showed 66 per cent of people think maintaining access to the single market should be a made a priority during negotiations. Only a third (31 per cent) want restricting freedom of movement to be at the top of the agenda."
And how well is that going to sit with the rank and file voters on both sides? it's like pouring petrol on a fire.
There seems to be a case for reviewing how Polls are being shall we say used for Political rather than informational purposes, they are in many ways a menace.
Somehow a level of Independence needs to be applied to them.
I think he will will be aware. We tend to think of them as numpties, but, they will be aware of the rules.
However, if the big players in the EU want, the big players will get. Germany and France will be the EU when we've gone, with all the other countries suckling on their teet. Other countries won't stand up to Germany and France because they've got all the cheese.
Till son.....since the referendum there has been invented a number of catch phrases such as 'Brexit means Brexit', 'We are all leavers now'
Both are just not true and matters are moving away from them.
Even Theresa May is now saying 'Brexit when we get an approach that suits all the U.K.' ....that's a long way from 'Brexit means Brexit'
'We are all leavers now'....even at the referendum 16 million of us were Remainers,I haven't spoken to anyone who voted Remain and wishes to reverse that decision. But of the 17 million who voted leave,many were fed up that Boris and Gove lied about the contribution,immigration,NHS gain and weren't told that the referendum had no power and it still needs to be ratified by parliament,I wonder how many would now vote Remain.
I don't believe that Theresa May thinks that we are all leavers now ,it will be interesting whether her tone changes now that she doesn't have to keep the Leavers happy,whether they are public or MPs.
I notice Brendan has left the thread,shame he lost out on every point he tried,in the end he stated that he voted leave because he thought that would reinforce the negotiation strength for us to remain,I think that he would be disappointed in that ploy.
All very interesting but I don't see any advantage to Theresa May in seriously chasing Article 50 but I can see massive advantage if she manages to secure a good deal but keep us in,but she will need to win the next General Election with an attractive manifesto to achieve that,so that she can ignore the referendum....4 years is a long time in politics.
Even now the sad events in Nice and Turkey has moved Brexit out of the front stage.
KudosDave
Both are just not true and matters are moving away from them.
Even Theresa May is now saying 'Brexit when we get an approach that suits all the U.K.' ....that's a long way from 'Brexit means Brexit'
'We are all leavers now'....even at the referendum 16 million of us were Remainers,I haven't spoken to anyone who voted Remain and wishes to reverse that decision. But of the 17 million who voted leave,many were fed up that Boris and Gove lied about the contribution,immigration,NHS gain and weren't told that the referendum had no power and it still needs to be ratified by parliament,I wonder how many would now vote Remain.
I don't believe that Theresa May thinks that we are all leavers now ,it will be interesting whether her tone changes now that she doesn't have to keep the Leavers happy,whether they are public or MPs.
I notice Brendan has left the thread,shame he lost out on every point he tried,in the end he stated that he voted leave because he thought that would reinforce the negotiation strength for us to remain,I think that he would be disappointed in that ploy.
All very interesting but I don't see any advantage to Theresa May in seriously chasing Article 50 but I can see massive advantage if she manages to secure a good deal but keep us in,but she will need to win the next General Election with an attractive manifesto to achieve that,so that she can ignore the referendum....4 years is a long time in politics.
Even now the sad events in Nice and Turkey has moved Brexit out of the front stage.
KudosDave
Just read Polly Toynbee's article in the Guardian.
Whether you are a Leaver or Remainer it's worth a read.
' This is now project betrayal and WE ARE ALL VICTIMS NOW'
She suggests that nobody is really happy after the referendum and blames the tories for trying to overcome the long standing fester in the Tory party,which has now spread to an epidemic disease across the UK.
Boris broke Britain and has now been put in charge to mend it.
Still cannot see any advantage,short or long term,to leaving the EU,but as Polly Toynbee states there are already a lot of serious problems as a direct effect of the referendum,most of these problems will hurt poor people,many thought that Brexit would improve their lifestyle,they are already realising that the opposite could be the effect,when you are poor next week is long term ,6 years is not of consequence.
KudosDave
Whether you are a Leaver or Remainer it's worth a read.
' This is now project betrayal and WE ARE ALL VICTIMS NOW'
She suggests that nobody is really happy after the referendum and blames the tories for trying to overcome the long standing fester in the Tory party,which has now spread to an epidemic disease across the UK.
Boris broke Britain and has now been put in charge to mend it.
Still cannot see any advantage,short or long term,to leaving the EU,but as Polly Toynbee states there are already a lot of serious problems as a direct effect of the referendum,most of these problems will hurt poor people,many thought that Brexit would improve their lifestyle,they are already realising that the opposite could be the effect,when you are poor next week is long term ,6 years is not of consequence.
KudosDave
And of course as is usual for the Tory party, they have a new Bogey man (woman in this case) to blame for delaying Brexit, in , as the right wing papers will soon be calling her, "that awful Scottish Woman" who's intransigence is delaying us achieving the goal of Brexit we are passionately committed to!
Good enough to fool the plebs and make them angry enough not to see they are being led up the garden path as usual.
And of course what is the most important thing we need before triggering article 50?
An agreement with the EU that the process can be reversed if we cant get a deal we are happy with of course and don't just end up being booted out with nothing to show for it.
Just how many when voting for Brexit were aware of the finality of the process, if article 50 is invoked, or the possible consequences?.
Good enough to fool the plebs and make them angry enough not to see they are being led up the garden path as usual.
And of course what is the most important thing we need before triggering article 50?
An agreement with the EU that the process can be reversed if we cant get a deal we are happy with of course and don't just end up being booted out with nothing to show for it.
Just how many when voting for Brexit were aware of the finality of the process, if article 50 is invoked, or the possible consequences?.
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I have thought over carefully the helpful and constructive points you have raised, and even managed to verbally abuse three of us in one go! Highly Commendable, three for the price of one, and so eloquently phrased, despite acute problems with the computer spell checker.
After much thought I decided on a suitable response
Nothing of interest here, just the usual rant, don't let me detain you as a response sounds about right.
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And how do you propose to keep Scotland within the UK if we do?
No PM would want history to note that she was responsible for the break up of the U.K.
We will do something that will be packaged to suit everyone and I suspect it will be a worse deal than we had before the referendum,that will be our penalty for starting this stupid process in the first place
KudosDave
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Good old Sunday Express
REVEALED: Britain already has TEN Brexit trade deals lined up with economic powerhouses
BRITAIN already has ten trade deals lined up with economic powerhouses around the world as it forges its post-Brexit future, Liam Fox said last night."
So they only take a few minutes on the phone and the deal is done!
Thank heavens for that!
Well done Tillson, right again (perhaps)
So we can just walk away from the EU and tell them to get lost?
Trade Deals are obviously not time consuming after all, just a word in someones ear and it's done.
What a relief!
Just one thought from the comments on page.
"Unfortunately they are all main exporters of goods to the UK. We seriously need trade deals with nations that want to buy our goods, not mainly sell us theirs."
It was the BBC News website, but don't let that spoil your day.
Personally, I'm looking forward to tucking into a succulent kangaroo burger whilst swigging a tin Fosters behind the wheel of a big V8 Holden. What is there not to like?