Brexit, for once some facts.

[Kudoscycles]

But it only seems to be the losers who think the winners have been fed lies.

Both sides lied in the run up to the referendum. We are led to in the run up to a General Election, this is nothing new, move along nothing to see here. I made up my own mind and voted out, just like millions of other people who won.

So, you all have so much to say about what a catastrophe this result is and how you would like to see the result ignored, you, @trex, @flec, @Kudoscycles @KTM Bike Industries UK tell us which numbers represent a fair result?

No that is not true,when Farage thought he had lost on the night before the referendum he was shouting about all the lies that the Remain lot had put out...in hindsight they weren't lies.
I thought the audience on last weeks Question Time were a good lot,mixed across a broad spectrum ,I felt sorry for the young people on there who felt they had been sold out.
It's just looking that at this moment there are no winners and looking to the future I cannot see that any deal we sort with the EU is going to be any better than the one we have currently got.
Out of interest what sort of deal do you think we can make with the EU post Brexit,I heard that they want 12 billion euro to stay in the single market?
KudosDave

 

[trex]

@tillson - I would say that for the result to be fair, either all countries (England, Wales, Scotland and NI) concur with simple majority or a clear overall margin of 5% or more.
Below this threshold, it's up to parliament to have the last say.

 

[Kudoscycles]

I think there had to be 20% of the total as a difference,this referendum has such far reaching consequences,that even now we don't fully understand that it needed a clear winner.
To be honest I thought the referendum was a bad idea from the off,it is such a complex subject that it was impossible to communicate to the people all the facts and actually few facts were presented.
I'm know some old ladies who are fed up with the number of migrants in the UK ,who thought that the migrants would be stopped from coming the week after the vote.
KudosDave

 

[RobF]

No that is not true,when Farage thought he had lost on the night before the referendum he was shouting about all the lies that the Remain lot had put out...in hindsight they weren't lies.
I thought the audience on last weeks Question Time were a good lot,mixed across a broad spectrum ,I felt sorry for the young people on there who felt they had been sold out.
It's just looking that at this moment there are no winners and looking to the future I cannot see that any deal we sort with the EU is going to be any better than the one we have currently got.
KudosDave

In the minds of the electorate there's a lot more to it than just trade.

Had the common market we were sold in the last referendum remained just that, I doubt there would have been much of a call to leave.

With the benefit of some hindsight, the seeds of discontent were sown when the common market began its metamorphosis into what we now know as the EU.

Federalism and 'big government' does not sit well with the British, maybe it's because we are an island nation.

A lot of Scots don't even want to be part of the United Kingdom, so we were never going to be a big happy family with mainland Europe.

The more the rest of the EU countries moved closer together, the less we felt a part of it.

Given that most of our political masters are pro-EU, the only surprise to me was we were given the opportunity to boot it into touch.

 

[flecc]

Now my question to remain supporters is, what figure represents a critical mass whereby you would accept the result?

For such an important decision, 60/40. Anything under a 10% margin is unacceptable for this fundamental change.

And I repeat, I made my view on a marginal result clear before the vote.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

yeah yeah, what are the numbers oldgroaner, the numbers? Forget the waffle, that's for losers. What percentages do we need to satisfy you?

Your memory is failing, may I remind you that earlier I confirmed that I was against changing the result?
You really must have that memory of yours seen to.
My take is that having gone this far the electorate need to be exposed to the consequences of their action, a hard lesson, but a necessary one.

As proof I offer post #1331 re a second referendum
↑Tilson
Only about 14.5 million more signatures needed then to overtake the out vote. Good luck with that.
Me
One thing we do agree on its a dead duck of an idea.

 

[derf]

Your memory is failing, may I remind you that earlier I confirmed that I was against changing the result?
You really must have that memory of yours seen to.
My take is that having gone this far the electorate need to be exposed to the consequences of their action, a hard lesson, but a necessary one.

I'm hoping for a brief hard lesson that doesn't do terminal damage. Already as I hear brexiters on the forum and elsewhere anxiously reasure themselves that it won't be that bad, or confabulating "reasons" why all will be OK I can feel the sentiment and goalposts shifting.

 

[derf]

I'm hoping for a brief hard lesson that doesn't do terminal damage. Already as I hear brexiters on the forum and elsewhere anxiously reasure themselves that it won't be that bad, or confabulating "reasons" why all will be OK I can feel the sentiment and goalposts shifting.

Incidentally there was documentary on viz comics on radio 4 earlier, it was so funny I struggled to control car while driving home from work, in case anyone needs an escape from brexit,enormously politically and incorrect,but literally funniest satire I've heard in years

 

[oldgroaner]

I'm hoping for a brief hard lesson that doesn't do terminal damage. Already as I hear brexiters on the forum and elsewhere anxiously reasure themselves that it won't be that bad, or confabulating "reasons" why all will be OK I can feel the sentiment and goalposts shifting.

I believe the malady originated in Iraq and is known by the medical acronym
C.A.S (Comical Ali Syndrome)

 

[flecc]

Incidentally there was documentary on viz comics on radio 4 earlier, it was so funny I struggled to control car while driving home from work, in case anyone needs an escape from brexit,enormously politically and incorrect,but literally funniest satire I've heard in years

For anyone wanting to listen, it's available at any time on the BBC i-player on the link below:

Viz, an unfeasibly large success
.

 

[Kudoscycles]

In the minds of the electorate there's a lot more to it than just trade.

Had the common market we were sold in the last referendum remained just that, I doubt there would have been much of a call to leave.

With the benefit of some hindsight, the seeds of discontent were sown when the common market began its metamorphosis into what we now know as the EU.

Federalism and 'big government' does not sit well with the British, maybe it's because we are an island nation.

A lot of Scots don't even want to be part of the United Kingdom, so we were never going to be a big happy family with mainland Europe.

The more the rest of the EU countries moved closer together, the less we felt a part of it.

Given that most of our political masters are pro-EU, the only surprise to me was we were given the opportunity to boot it into touch.

Notice I agree,but the only effect so far is negative trade,customers are so uncertain at the moment that any big ticket items are put on hold. I am the same I have delayed any new projects until we have sight of the outcome.
I am an independent guy and hate the advance of Federal Europe,but I realise that we have to compromise to be part of such a big club,maybe too big a club.
Boris let the cat out of the bag,when he said back in February that the best position we can negotiate a new deal and remain is if we vote to leave....I wonder if this was the reason that Gove stabbed Boris,maybe he was about to reveal his true position.
I am still convinced that Theresa May will talk Brexit,will set up a Brexit committee,will have a Brexit minister and do all the other things that politicians do when they want to smokescreen their real agenda.
In private she will negotiate with Merkel,to get a deal that she can put in the 2020 manifesto and the referendum will be forgotten,4 years is a long time.
It will be a nightmare of a job to negotiate us away from the EU,I would say almost impossible but it will be much easier to negotiate a deal to keep us in.....don't forget that Germany has its own migration problems and Holland,France,Austria and Germany all have strong right wing lobbies that may find it attractive to crack a deal with the U.K.
As others have said time will reveal all,but in the meantime I hope we don't do irreparable damage to our country based upon insecurity,the world won't wait around whilst we destroy ourselves,they will find a way to ignore us.
KudosDave

 

[BrendanJ]

Brendan,how do you decide that the £ has been too strong,currencies have a way of balancing themselves over time,1.40-1.50 is about right,Brexit has written off 10% of its value and I cannot see any benefit of it sitting at 1.30.
When it becomes obvious to the markets that May is actually a Remainer and the referendum is ignored,possibly by a General Election,the markets will push the £ back to its normal level.
In the meantime whilst we go through this pantomime the markets will go through a period of turbulence. Let's hope we all wake up quickly to the mistake we have made before the damage becomes terminal.
KudosDave

There is a very well established method for establishing whether a currency is too strong or weak, I will leave you to research that for yourself lest you accuse me for falling for propoganda, your assertion that 1.4-1.5 is about right is amusing as it is based on what!
And in any case did you not hear that the whole world is currently competing for a lower value currency. Even BofE is at it, talking currency down, (no accident or bitterness) and interest rate reduction to do same
A nice dose of inflation and exports is judged to be just what the doctor ordered at this current time
This is not the sky falling in which is what you lot seem to be looking for, it is economics to suit the global situation which Brexit is just one small part

 

[BrendanJ]

Brendan,
Quote' The government has got the message,even if some of us have not'
Unfortunately the government have not got the Leave message,well at least 450 of them have not got the message. Even the Tory party has not got the message ,we can see that by May getting 199 votes and Leadsome only 84, the latter is after all the Leave candidate.
IT IS JUST NOT NUMERICALLY POSSIBLE THAT THIS GOVERNMENT CAN COUNT ENOUGH VOTES TO TRIGGER ARTICLE 50,BREXIT CANNOT HAPPEN UNLESS WE HAVE A CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT.
KudosDave

If that's what you believe then stop worrying! But reality is that is bullshit
1 the government and the government whip will ensure that they deliver on policy, I've now that is leaving
2 who even said there will be a vote

Stop dreaming

 

[BrendanJ]

Sorry Brendan,you are not living in the real world....It is only days since the vote,my business is the largest importer of Motorsport parts out of China,I have over 100 suppliers from China.
They are all very concerned as to whether Brexit will cause the UK to not be able to service the EU after Brexit.
They also are urgently trying to raise prices because the RMB against the £ has fallen by 10%. They are looking to supply Germany direct and eliminate the UK in the supply chain....fortunately the UK is historically the home of Motorsport and the Germans don't have enough volumes to satisfy the Chinese MOQ's
Prices do automatically increase by exchange rates....if you have a 50 dollar product pre Brexit at 1.47 $ v £,that product cost £34.00 plus say 6% duty £36.05. The same product post Brexit at 1.29 $ v £ cost £38.75 plus 6% duty £41.05. £5.00 more.
Ironically I can easily afford these price rises but it will be poor people that will suffer most when these price rises filter through to the shops,this will affect everything bought in £ or dollars,from bicycles to bananas.
If you look on a historical $ v £ chart you will see that the £ has been hovering around 1.55 for some years,it's only since the referendum that we see1.40 and now 1.30 .
Most of my Chinese suppliers just cannot understand why we were so stupid to try to break away from Europe.
KudosDave

You are talking about your industry, and sorry to say hardly big in the uk, there are many more business models around which are much more representative of the bigger picture without disrespect, my company does more that 1 billion trade with Europe and without talking details , we are not concerned and will deal with it like any other event we deal with, so many variables is why management have a job at all so less of the chest beating or intellectual grandstanding would not be amiss,
Does anyone on this thread want an intelligent debate at all !!!

 

[Kudoscycles]

If that's what you believe then stop worrying! But reality is that is bullshit
1 the government and the government whip will ensure that they deliver on policy, I've now that is leaving
2 who even said there will be a vote

Stop dreaming

1. The referendum is not policy,it is only advisory,Theresa May will do nothing of substance until 2020 or the next General Election,whichever,comes soonest.
2. I agree,with the maths as they stand,there will be no vote,Article 50 would be voted down by parliament.
Theresa May would not use the whip,we know that there are only 84 ardent Euro Sceptics in the Tory MPs,for that is the number who voted for Leadsom,she would not want an attack on her authority so early in her term.
How do you suggest that Article 50 would be triggered without a vote in parliament?
I am not a dreamer,I am looking at the cold hard facts,Parliament will ignore this referendum,even with the whip the numbers just don't add up.
It would be a different matter if Leadsome won the PM,she seems a definite Brexit and would try to use the Queens prerogative to get it through but Mischon de Reya,is backed by some heavy hitters who will ensure that option is not available.
The outcome of this referendum was not thought through because Cameron never thought he would lose it,now there are massive legal and practical obstacles to overcome if the 17 million are to get their way,is Theresa May not just a female Cameron,very tepid Brexit.
Time will tell,who is right.
KudosDave

 

[flecc]

It would be a different matter if Leadsome won the PM,

I don't think even the loyal party members will select Leadsome after her disgraceful behaviour in blatantly trying to blame an entirely innocent journalist for her own stupidity. Even her own colleagues and supporters were shocked by this despicable behaviour. There's little doubt if it had happened before MP's voting, they would have dropped Leadsome and Gove would have been going forward against May.
.

 

[derf]

I don't think even the loyal party members will select Leadsome after her disgraceful behaviour in blatantly trying to blame an entirely innocent journalist for her own stupidity. Even her own colleagues and supporters were shocked by this despicable behaviour. There's little doubt if it had happened before MP's voting, they would have dropped Leadsome and Gove would have been going forward against May.
.

It was a bit like a mini watergate,with the cover up attempt doing more damage than the crime

 

[Kudoscycles]

Brexit.This is one of the most interesting chapters in the history of our nation and I suppose it's something of a compliment to the UK that the ripples felt by it are world ranging.
Ok this is the view taken by Mischon de Reya,they were Princess Di's solicitors,so knowledgable about our constitution.
In Britain parliament is sovereign,not the PM nor the Cabinet.
The U.K. entered the EU by way of the 1972 European Communities Act,1972. Under UK statute the repeal of an act can only be achieved by a subsequent act of Parliament.
The effect of triggering Article 50 would at the end of a 2 year period mean the UK cease to be an EU member state and that would automatically mean that the 1972 ECA would be nullified,that cannot happen except by parliament.
It therefore follows that to trigger Article 50 it would be necessary to repeal the 1972 ECA and that can only be achieved by a vote in parliament.
Cameron and the EU got it wrong when he announced that he ( or his replacement)would be triggering Article 50.
It is becoming abundantly clear that the referendum 'decision' made by the people of the U.K.,is not a 'decision' to trigger Article 50,that can only be completed by our national constitutional arrangements,ie parliament.
These legal wranglings will I am sure be news over the next few weeks,July 19 is the initial date,it will suit Theresa May to procrastinate over the outcome,so that a new manifesto can be developed to unite us all.
If that is dreaming,I have some pretty complex dreams.
KudosDave

 

[derf]

Brexit.This is one of the most interesting chapters in the history of our nation and I suppose it's something of a compliment to the UK that the ripples felt by it are world ranging.
Ok this is the view taken by Mischon de Reya,they were Princess Di's solicitors,so knowledgable about our constitution.
In Britain parliament is sovereign,not the PM nor the Cabinet.
The U.K. entered the EU by way of the 1972 European Communities Act,1972. Under UK statute the repeal of an act can only be achieved by a subsequent act of Parliament.
The effect of triggering Article 50 would at the end of a 2 year period mean the EU cease to be an EU member state and that would automatically mean that the 1972 ECA would be nullified,that cannot happen except by parliament.
It therefore follows that to trigger Article 50 it would be necessary to repeal the 1972 ECA and that can only be achieved by a vote in parliament.
Cameron and the EU got it wrong when he announced that he ( or his replacement)would be triggering Article 50.
It is becoming abundantly clear that the referendum 'decision' made by the people of the U.K.,is not a 'decision' to trigger Article 50,that can only be completed by our national constitutional arrangements,ie parliament.
These legal wranglings will I am sure be news over the next few weeks,July 19 is the initial date,it will suit Theresa May to procrastinate over the outcome,so that a new manifesto can be developed to unite us all.
If that is dreaming,I have some pretty complex dreams.
KudosDave

All of that will be great,or preferable to full brexit in the way gangrene is preferable to being decapitated. As that preferred outcome happens we will still take very serious economic damage. For no reason at all,other than boris and farages careers.

 

[mike killay]

Flecc,
I have been googling like mad but cannot find out what Leadsom lied about.