the BoE will keep the value of the Pound low to limit damage to the economy with lower interest rate and quantitative easing this summer. Shares went up 1.5% the Pound dropped 1.5% yesterday. It's not scaremongering, it's consensus. They are the classic signs of recession is coming.
Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
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I think it'll stay open for years, as its now an important national debate.
Also if I'm honest I'm kind of glad we've voted leave so people can and will see the grass isn't greener and its woken up a huge number of people to politics. 2 good things.
So hopefully we'll vote out, but not actually leave and it'll be win win win.
Also if I'm honest I'm kind of glad we've voted leave so people can and will see the grass isn't greener and its woken up a huge number of people to politics. 2 good things.
So hopefully we'll vote out, but not actually leave and it'll be win win win.
I'd like us leave the EU and adopt the Norway model with some agreed limitation of freedom of movement - like requiring residential permits for permanent settlers. We can then limit how many permits we want to issue and to whom. Seasonal workers are free to come and go. In work benefits are only paid to permanent settlers.
Comments attributed to Admiral Yamamoto after the attack on Pearl Harbour and his colleagues were celebrating a great victory apply both to the EU and our own population.
"I fear all we have done is awoken a great beast and filled it with a terrible resolve."
"I fear all we have done is awoken a great beast and filled it with a terrible resolve."
And it also works both ways
The great resolve of both the EU and also UK
We will see who's resolve stands the test. I still think as yet to be events will strongly influence the outcome and there are no doubts there are storm clouds over Europe
Peter Hargreaves is the only person ever to have started a FTSE 100 company without any loans. He was an accountant and started a newsletter for investors. From that newsletter he developed Hargreaves Lansdown. Financially I,d back him over any self serving politician. He says leave for long term financial reasons.
Morally the EU is bankrupt and has played no part in solving any crisis since its inception.
The free movement of people is a joke at moment when you examine where and in what numbers they go. ( none to Luxembourg)
Junkhers is a gangster. Just examine his dealings.
No reason to stay. Lots to leave. But OG, Trex , and KTM for son reason think they know more than Peter Hargreaves ( and now Mervyn King)
The doomsters don't see that its their ( and others) negativity that's driving things down.
Self fullfilling.
We are leaving, you can carry on driving it down or be positive.?
I already know the answer, but ironically you,ll blame brexit...for ever.!
Morally the EU is bankrupt and has played no part in solving any crisis since its inception.
The free movement of people is a joke at moment when you examine where and in what numbers they go. ( none to Luxembourg)
Junkhers is a gangster. Just examine his dealings.
No reason to stay. Lots to leave. But OG, Trex , and KTM for son reason think they know more than Peter Hargreaves ( and now Mervyn King)
The doomsters don't see that its their ( and others) negativity that's driving things down.
Self fullfilling.
We are leaving, you can carry on driving it down or be positive.?
I already know the answer, but ironically you,ll blame brexit...for ever.!
flud, I think you are mistaken about my view. I like the Norway model, I have said so weeks before the vote. I don't like the BS from the Brexiters leaders. I dislike Farage and Ukip and I despair at the level of understanding the economy. I think a recession is coming and the BoE will keep the value of the Pound low to protect the economy, ie, reduce imports and increase exports. I don't know if you, BrendanJ and Tillson see clearly the relationship between UK current account deficit and the value of the Pound. Foreigners have been pulling their money out of London for months now. It's not fear in the sense of propaganda, it's fear of investing where there is lack of certainty.
Trex
Yes all true but two things
A) Our current situation in not to do with brexit but peoples assumptions about brexit, caused by scaremongering not changes in policy.
B) Its only your assumption recession is on its way. Down turns have been happening for past 15 years. Like I mentioned earlier the big issue has been the stagnation of business for so long. 10 years ago economists were predicting ftse of 9000, its stuck around 6 since.
So yes economic global storm clouds are gathering but since well before brexit.
The value of the pound has been here before. Talk of parity years ago.
Oh and BTW house sales to foreigners in London has increased. One lender has pulled out.The weak pound had bigger effect than confidence.
Yes all true but two things
A) Our current situation in not to do with brexit but peoples assumptions about brexit, caused by scaremongering not changes in policy.
B) Its only your assumption recession is on its way. Down turns have been happening for past 15 years. Like I mentioned earlier the big issue has been the stagnation of business for so long. 10 years ago economists were predicting ftse of 9000, its stuck around 6 since.
So yes economic global storm clouds are gathering but since well before brexit.
The value of the pound has been here before. Talk of parity years ago.
Oh and BTW house sales to foreigners in London has increased. One lender has pulled out.The weak pound had bigger effect than confidence.
Only 10 more pages before this thread take on more significance than the one concerning Electronic Cigarettes.Just a question on protocol
When does this thread actually finish? Or are we going for some record?
I think you don't get it. You should take the FTSE250 as a guide for the UK economy, not the FTSE100. The FTSE250 reflects investors confidence in the UK economy in the 2 and a half year brexit scenario.
you are in denial . The drop in the value of the Pound is real, there are no two ways about this. If the Pound were at $1.40 before the vote, it would have been $1.20-$1.25 now.
If you watch Victoria Derbyshire this morning, it's quite clear why people voted out in large parts of the UK. Most people made clear that UKIP do well where most people are unhappy and voting out is the way of registering their unhappiness.
So Peter Hargreaves voted out as a protest or because he supports UKIP ?
He voted out because he believes UK,s long term economic future is better out of EU..
Or perhaps you write him off as another mistaken expert .
Why are you buying into the rhetoric ,BS, media frenzy.
Will be back to football soon.
Tell me one fiscal change that has actually happened yet. ( Tariffs,rules,embargoes etc)
There are none. This is just public and market hysteria.
At least wait until changes happen before you tell us they are catastrophic.
Every single negative aspect can be laid at our stupid government for its scaremongering campaign.
When the hysteria drops,which it will, when changes are made and when time has been given for those changes , whatever they are, to have a REAL affect that will be time to draw conclusions.
NOTHING has changed yet !
I can not believe what a set of whining, negative hysterical people much of our nation has become. Everybody is now both a political and economical expert. Kids are telling us they are suffering depression as a result of brexit. Restaurant owners shouting brexit disaster. And nothing has happened yet. Its pathetic. Negative,hysterical and reactionary. Everything our nation claims not to be...and folk on here are joining in.
Yes the pound has dropped. Just ask yourself why ...and what it actually means .
If you really can predict recessions, which BTW nobody can, apart from folk knowing they are cyclic ( apparently 43 year period?) then you should be able to make a fortune. Sell everything and buy gold. You,ll make a mint. Bet you don't tho..
He voted out because he believes UK,s long term economic future is better out of EU..
Or perhaps you write him off as another mistaken expert .
Why are you buying into the rhetoric ,BS, media frenzy.
Will be back to football soon.
Tell me one fiscal change that has actually happened yet. ( Tariffs,rules,embargoes etc)
There are none. This is just public and market hysteria.
At least wait until changes happen before you tell us they are catastrophic.
Every single negative aspect can be laid at our stupid government for its scaremongering campaign.
When the hysteria drops,which it will, when changes are made and when time has been given for those changes , whatever they are, to have a REAL affect that will be time to draw conclusions.
NOTHING has changed yet !
I can not believe what a set of whining, negative hysterical people much of our nation has become. Everybody is now both a political and economical expert. Kids are telling us they are suffering depression as a result of brexit. Restaurant owners shouting brexit disaster. And nothing has happened yet. Its pathetic. Negative,hysterical and reactionary. Everything our nation claims not to be...and folk on here are joining in.
Yes the pound has dropped. Just ask yourself why ...and what it actually means .
If you really can predict recessions, which BTW nobody can, apart from folk knowing they are cyclic ( apparently 43 year period?) then you should be able to make a fortune. Sell everything and buy gold. You,ll make a mint. Bet you don't tho..
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It's clearly uncertainty and much of that coming from the campaign propaganda. But as I have said I do not see a lower value pound as an issue, in fact it has always served us well, and as we embark on trying to increase our trade both with the EU and the rest of the world long may it continue. Clearly at the moment it is not clear where it will stabilise at but 15% down on euro would suit me fine.
As far as Bank of England actions, I was let's say disappointed with their inputs to the campaign which were ceized upon by the remainders and exploited but I have every confidence in their process for steadying the ship
We will see whether an interest rate reduction is seen as necessary but in reality it just puts us on a par with rest of world so nothing dramatic there
Clearly they would like us to avoid falling into recession which is sensible but a technical recession is probable in my view, but again I don't see this as earth shaking, look around you at the global situation, if global markets including Europe are down how do we expect at this stage to outperform?
As they always tell you on markets and investments take the long view and certainly in my view we will outperform Europe despite its size, due to its lack of flexibility, failure to achieve trade agreements due to its protectionist stance which is difficult to see how they will change with so many country interests and divergent economies. For Europe there really are only two solutions, either a complete centralist dictatorship, or some level of restructuring on a 2 tier basis. The choice for me and I think for the countries at least if not the commission is obviously
This by the way is a common debate in business, which is better Central control, or devolved local control,
It's at the heart of the Scotland debate, and in fact is why Scotland policy makes no sense, leave the UK but get in bed with an even bigger bully. It's just Scottish Nationalism gone barmy
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I have an account at H&L but have not read his report. Peter Hargreaves speaks from the point of view of somebody investing in shares. One would anticipate the normal reaction from central bank is to inject economic stimulus in case of recession. economic stimulus means the winners are producers and the losers are savers and the consumers. It's not propaganda, it's textbook.
OG....disagree,we now hold all the cards,we cannot be forced to trigger Article 50,we could keep this impasse going for years and the longer it goes on the more frustrated Junkers and his cronies are going to become,there is no leverage they can put on us.
My business is absolutely booming at the moment,my EU customers love this 1.19 £ v€ rate,I buy very little from mainland EU,so there is little on the flip side,I am buying £v $ at forward buy 1.45,so keep it going as long as possible....note how inexpensive Kudos bikes are at present,I am under no pressure to increase prices.
Junkers(henceforth known as Hitler),can spit blood as much as he likes,but the EU is caught,Farage must be loving it. Theresa May looks like being our next PM,remember she was a remainer,she is shrewd,she won't be in any hurry to trigger Article 50,Jeremy Hunt is suggesting after the next general election,2020 at the earliest,new government....new manifesto......we will all have forgotten about this by then.
The referendum has done a good job of distracting the real problems of the EU,I am out in Greece at the moment,the Greeks love us for standing up to the EU,they are learning lessons,hehe.
KudosDave
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Firstly like anyone else, he can be wrong. I've seen Hargeaves Lansdowne get it wrong a number of times over the years.
Secondly, just getting our economic future slightly better than when in the EU will still not be good enough. It needs a revolutionary change, which I see no signs of our being capable of.
We know that there's a big risk outside the EU which may or may not transpire. On the other hand our past and present failures show no signs that we might succeed either way, and our history since 1945 only indicates failure.
So for me, using Hargreaves Lansdowne's own "play safe" investment strategy, the balance indications are wrong for being out.
Therefore my judgment is on what is known and factual, Peter Hargreaves' one is an article of faith only, since there is no actual evidence since the early 20th century of us being successful on our own. Quite the opposite in fact.
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Ftse 100 likely to post best week since 2011.. Yes not as good a guide as 250 but a guide none the less.
i wish you were right, unfortunately some voters have to well and truly pee on the plug before they realsie it's live. also, i'm in principal in fvour of full integration with the eu - i like living in a civilised society. i respect the fact that some out voters equally for principled reasons dont mind destroying the economy for what they believe in
i agree with trex, but dont think BoE cutting interest rates next month, and pound devaluing will avoid a very damaging recession. i read flud et al's comments about currency ratios not mattering with some incredulity. You do realise that cutting public spending (that's health care, social care, eventually pensions, yup the triple lock) - much much more drastically is what's coming? I guess not.