Brexit, for once some facts.
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Doubtful, as the media bias is far too strong and the Public too lazy to check the true facts, for contra opinions to make any difference,, and on that basis I expect Brexit to win, with a comfortable majority.
And us to rue the day.
Still it has been entertaining, hasn't it?
I was wavering which way to go but these posts helped me to decide.
So not changed my mind on which way to go but if I could be bothered.
Hi Brendan I have read all the posts in this thread with great interest. I have been firmly in the Brexit camp but these discussions have made me challenge my position. I am concerned about services and immigration, but I can see the argument for remaining. The open market is a huge advantage. I run a very small dealership and the parent company is German. My only question is, Does Europe have an appetite to change itself, or will we still be seen as the parent shouting from the side line asking for more?
My thought is that this depends on the majority of member countries. If enough want change it will happen, and there are signs that quite a few are disatisfied with certain aspects. But change is unlikely to be initiated by the EU Commission.
Sadly yes, it's in the nature of our first past the post politics. It's just so easy for the UK politicians to blame the EU when that is convenient. In mainland Europe where coalition governments are commonplace, that's much less likely to happen.
So we get to look like the stroppy neighbour.
.
Has been an interesting debate with some good points raised by both sides. I personally have not been persuaded to change my mind. I think the politicians have been pathetic. I also think that the remain side have spoken as if we are a worthless country which cannot possibly survive without the EU holding our hands and telling us what to do. With ''leaders'' like that it makes me despair. On the leave side I feel they are being over optimistic in thinking that we will carry on as normal. There are bound to be some nasty shocks in store whichever way we go. I have a genuine concern that if we vote to remain the EU will see it as a green light to impose even more on us, and David Camerons so called veto's will be worthless. So for me it is about the UK being in control of it's own destiny. I want to know that if I vote in a general election the man/woman that is elected is not just a lackey for Europe. I wonder how this referendum is being viewed in Europe by the general populace. Is there a fear that if we leave others may want to follow???
I agree with this and referring to trex Telegraph article (we're did that go), although it stated a definite hit to uk credit rating and some risks of money outflows it also talked about serious consequences for Europe, maybe not collapse but certainly restructuring needs and this is causing serious concerns in Europe
I really believe this to be realistic and why a br exit vote is likely to lead to serious rethink and negotiation about the future form of Europe that can better meet the varying needs and situations of member countries
This could be a good thing if we have the courage, it's down to who blinks first
Remember Europe needs and wants us in, don't waste that opportunity, not to negotiate simply for Britain but Europe as a whole
the link to the telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/09/brexit-might-trigger-run-on-britains-record-financial-debts-sp-w/
I don't think the EU and the Eurozone are going to blink. France and Germany stand to gain massively on foreign direct inward investment, the Euro will strengthen against the dollar and the yen. Most Brexiters don't realize the risk to our manufacturing outside the EU fortress. Brexiters think we need zero tariff, this is open door stupid, we'll be flooded with cheap imports because we'll have nothing to negociate with China, the BRICS or the North Americans. Our manufacturing is not geared to compete head on with China, Korea and even Turkey. If we remove the fishing quotas, our seas are going to be fished out within a couple of decades.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/09/brexit-might-trigger-run-on-britains-record-financial-debts-sp-w/
I don't think the EU and the Eurozone are going to blink. France and Germany stand to gain massively on foreign direct inward investment, the Euro will strengthen against the dollar and the yen. Most Brexiters don't realize the risk to our manufacturing outside the EU fortress. Brexiters think we need zero tariff, this is open door stupid, we'll be flooded with cheap imports because we'll have nothing to negociate with China, the BRICS or the North Americans. Our manufacturing is not geared to compete head on with China, Korea and even Turkey. If we remove the fishing quotas, our seas are going to be fished out within a couple of decades.
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The answer is of course that we must stop sending saboteurs to the European Parliament as for Example The UKIP Meps, who have no interest in doing anything other than destroying it, can you imagine how parliament here would run if a significant number wanted Home rule for Yorkshire, lets say?
With a committed UK contingent then change is obviously most likely to be made.
I believe we have the guts and ability to affect the necessary changes rather than quit. We just have to field the right people to represent us.
It is a mistake to think that while fundamental that directive is cast in stone, we are not on our own to think it needs changing.
At this point I offer a little comical note from History please regard this as a piece of fun and not having any anti Brexit overtones, as the situation is so Bizarre that no one in their right mind would ever even dream of doing this again.
We visited the remains of the Old Peak Alum works at Ravenscar and a little information plaque gave this fascinating information.
"At the time of the Reformation the Pope in reprisal cut off the supply of Alum to this country.
This is essential for fixing dyes in clothing etc., etc, so a local Gent discovered that the local shales were similar to that in the continental source area.
The extraction secret was known only to the Vatican, but Henry the Eights agent managed to steal it and the process goes like this
To be refilled with Urine etc. etc.
Apparently it improved the flavour.
And the notice opines that this is the reason for the popularity of yellow Salted Butter.
Four of these companies bandied together and formed Imperial Chemical Industries
Once again I repeat this posting is for humorous purposes only (though somehow it has put me off salted butter!
We visited the remains of the Old Peak Alum works at Ravenscar and a little information plaque gave this fascinating information.
"At the time of the Reformation the Pope in reprisal cut off the supply of Alum to this country.
This is essential for fixing dyes in clothing etc., etc, so a local Gent discovered that the local shales were similar to that in the continental source area.
The extraction secret was known only to the Vatican, but Henry the Eights agent managed to steal it and the process goes like this
- Mine the shale
- Burn it on bonfires for 9 months
- Soak it in pits to extract the Aluminium Sulphate liquor
- Add Human Urine ( and they needed 200 tons a year)
- Collect the Urine in London. Newcastle and Hull in Barrels
- Let it settle and skim off the Alum
To be refilled with Urine etc. etc.
Apparently it improved the flavour.
And the notice opines that this is the reason for the popularity of yellow Salted Butter.
Four of these companies bandied together and formed Imperial Chemical Industries
Once again I repeat this posting is for humorous purposes only (though somehow it has put me off salted butter!
So essentially you see this as an opportunity to blackmail the rest of Europe?
And justify it by claiming it's for their own good and call that courage?
Sad.
Old groaner,
There you go again, negativity and bias
What I am saying is we are clearly in a negotiation, just as Cameron pretended to do. Where he went absolutely wrong is in the little England idea that we the uk needed concessions or exceptions. No wonder he failed
What we are talking about is a system that is not working, is failing and is unable to recognise it or compromise for the whole of Europe. We can all benefit
The economy is failing, imagration policy is failing, restrictive business practices are failing, no trading deals with the rest of the world, Europe army, don't make me laugh
Like any negotiation you cannot get anything unless you are prepared to walk away from a bad deal, unless you are prepared to pres your advantages and convictions
Yes absolutely a vote for br exit will give us that chance, so you call that blackmail. That's very sad!!!, negative and frankly a loser before you begin
You could always emigrate
just watched the ITV debate. I am probably seeing this with a slightly biased view, but what I saw was three shouty women for the remain side with nothing positive to say about our country. All they seemed to want to do was frighten people into believing we would be doomed should we leave. In contrast I thought the leave side were much more positive about the potential of this country. Despite Boris being constantly insulted and attacked by Sturgeon and Eagle I felt that he was big enough to stick to the debate and not sink to their level. Just my view. I also think that the best thing that could have happened for the leave side was for Blair and Major to tell us to stay in. That alone should be a good reason to vote leave.
Off you go again, why should I emigrate? This country is too important to me to enjoy watching what is essentially Brexiters seeking to turn the country into a ready made victim for either the Americans or Chinese to scoop up because it hasn't the confidence in itself to operate as part of a large organisation, where it is one voice among many.
So you propose we walk away from a "Bad deal" which has incidentally over the years brought many benefits, into a totally uncertain future led by an inept political class who's past failures made us seek shelter in the common market where we have prospered?
You apparently ignore the facts that you attribute to the EU that actually apply to us.
"The economy is failing, imagration policy is failing, restrictive business practices are failing, no trading deals with the rest of the world, Europe army, don't make me laugh"
The immigration situation has been made worse by our own governments inept control in losing so many of them, hasn't it? and through not using the instruments of control that Gove doesn't even know he already has to prevent or exclude criminals.
And our coastline is defenceless.
Yes indeed our economy is actually failing regardless of short term results as our debts continue to rise, and as for the European Army, which as yet does not exist (and may never do.)
Tell me the advantage of having a huge army that could be used against us at the channel shore rather than being on the same side?
That is wisdom to you?
Lets cut to the chase: What has being on our own got to actually offer for the future?
Nothing tangible at all, no Markets to exploit to replace the EU with goods that we make a ourselves.
Note ourselves as we have no industry to speak of that isn't foreign owned and may well decide to pull out, or blackmail us as Tata has done
We no longer have a Merchant Navy to ship these none existent home produced goods.
No coastal defences worthy of the name.
our Armed Forces reduced to a shadow of their former selves.
Resources? well we have oil that's too expensive to extract.
Coal that we buy elsewhere as its cheaper.
Metals that we stopped mining on cost 100 years ago.
If and when the banks move to the Far East as they intend, bang goes the financial swindles that keep us going now.
All these things need to be changed overnight for us to be able to thrive, and you think it is a "Neat idea?"
This country cannot expect to bully the EU to get it's own way, the odds are greatly against that.
We are effectively if Brexit is passed seeking a divorce from Europe
Influence the Europeans to change?
About as much chance of that as the man in the divorce case has of coming out winning.
Already the French president is making threatening noises and they wont be the only ones if we pull out.
They are going to make it hard and become enemies economically where we had friends before,
And for what? a Fantasy of an Island paradise free and prosperous?
Sorry, not convincing, just not practical at all.
Watched it too. Leave started to wind me up constantly ending every statement with the phrase "take back control...."
Felt like i was being brainwashed!
Remaining just for spite
Felt like i was being brainwashed!
Remaining just for spite
Really sad, you don't like England very much do you'
, and if what you say is true re our chance to change Europe at this stage through brexit vote which I grant you is one scenario then that would just confirm we are better off out because we for sure would not get the result by simply staying in. One point I would clarify, leaving the European Union does not mean not trading with them and continuing to cooperate with them on many areas, it just means taking back controls, and trading does not mean we need trade deals, were did that phalicy come from,
I am sure we can succeed and prosper, but I recognise this story has lot of mileage in it yet, it does not end with the vote
I don't like England very much? come off it, it is because of my caring about it I don't want it to be ruined by self seeking people who have unrealistic notions of the difference between progress and profit.
How on Earth do you still cling to the idea we will be better off? how?
Trading doesn't mean we need Trade deals?
And you think we will be able to continue as before trading with the EU?
Ask the Swiss about that!
The only way we will be able to do that will be on their terms not ours.
As the Swiss have found out to their cost, and they aren't members of the EU.
I'm all for having dreams, but not trying to live them when a moments thought shows they are impractical is foolish.
I don't believe that but see the joke!Watched it too. Leave started to wind me up constantly ending every statement with the phrase "take back control...."
Felt like i was being brainwashed!
Remaining just for spite
I was and still am attracted by the possibility of paying for access to the EU market while looking elsewhere for new opportunities. What apalled me is conservative leavers gradually show themselves up as ukip. I would have been happier if the leave camp sticks to Gisela Stuart and dumps all kippers.
That's one possibility, but so is simply paying duties on exports , and of course charging duties on imports, net difference probably zero
Combined with the probability of lower value pound, looks good to me
Roll up more New Zealand butter. I just don't get the negative idea that all the cards are in the EU,s hands
I agree that in the brexit campaign it includes some very right wing types, but don't tar them all with the same brush, it also includes a lot of very intelligent and experienced people as clearly witnessed on last nights debate
Also please remember we are not electing a new party here, at last count the government is still the Tory party which would simply be given a new mandate by the British people on the direction it wishes to take, and given the wrangling and negotiation that would then take place it is entirely reasonable that there would be down the line another referendum to confirm the final plan