Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
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And I didn't say you had, read the post yourself I said you "alluded" that.
Do you need an explanation?
allude
əˈl(j)uːd/
verb
past tense: alluded; past participle: alluded
- suggest or call attention to indirectly; hint at.
As to if the cap fits.. you didn't have to confirm it does, did you?
Back on topic.
Cameron's claim of Turkey not getting in EU until 3000 looks rather misplaced today. That is going to be fun in Cyprus...eu making more problems for itself ??
And they wont have any miliitary to help if we do ever get out ??
Cameron's claim of Turkey not getting in EU until 3000 looks rather misplaced today. That is going to be fun in Cyprus...eu making more problems for itself ??
And they wont have any miliitary to help if we do ever get out ??
If you read my post you will note that I am also against an Australian based points,I.e. what you describe. We're not on the same hymnsheet, or in the same church,and I have a strong hunch were never going to be. So we're going to have to agree the differ. You won't do it but I'd suggest you check on the predictive validity of your hypotheses. Once the recession bites and the skilled emigrate you'll probably find other ways of rationalising that.
Yes ,I can understand your reasoning but being so assured of that outcome when we haven't got a clue what trade agreements and which other markets will potentially open up is at best pessimistic.
I,d be interested to know which indicators you are using tovarrive at your conclusion ?
The only negative indicator at moment is value of pound..
Suspect your reasoning is somewhat influenced by the stupid campaign Osbourne / Cameron engineered.
Well done Wales. Brilliant. Showed Woy and our overpaid Muppets up. Superb game. Everyone of them played incredibly.
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the Pound is a very good indicator. It shows how confident foreign investors think of our economy.
Another one is the current account. I posted this plot a few days ago.
flud, BrendanJ and Tillson, what do you see as positive in the plot below of our current account deficit? where are we going to find the money ($$$) to give back to those investors who want out?
The weaker pound is due to the UK's overdrawn current account deficit (how much it earns from exporting goods and services). With the financial account (foreign investment into UK) it makes up the balance of payment. The previous stability of the pound was due to foreign investors funding the current account via the financial account.theoretically a weaker pound could mean that as foreign investment becomes less, as it has since 2013 to be fair, rising exports could plug the gap. But brexit is a double whammy in this regard,a credit downgrade and the prospect of trade barriers. You will no doubt disagree but I believe brexit will make foreign investment dry up with an immediate shock to the economy and currency. At the same time businesses are referring investment. So foreign exchange won't come from exports. The UK for what it's worth has one of the worst current account deficits in the world. It's a bit like being hugely overdrawn,on a relatively fixed salary and you g to tell your bank manager you never want to speak to him again. That's my definition of brexit,cultural and political issues aside. Apologies if any of this was as the English say teaching grandmother to suck eggs
Looking at that graph and timescale quickly, I would just have to say what's that got to do with Brexit and was clearly happening for last 2 years and no one was complainingthe Pound is a very good indicator. It shows how confident foreign investors think of our economy.
Another one is the current account. I posted this plot a few days ago.
flud, BrendanJ and Tillson, what do you see as positive in the plot below of our current account deficit? where are we going to find the money ($$$) to give back to those investors who want out?
Just proves how easy it is to mislead with data and be mislead with data, which one are you?
And why is any of that the result of Brexit ?
Only thing that's happened is half wit Osbourne can now blame budget deficit on Brexit.. which
A) Hasn't happened yet
B) As yet we havnt got a clue what REAL affects on economy.
And like I said earlier if you are so confident on recession you can easily profit from it. Sell everything and buy gold.( in recession that,s the haven)
Gold price has stabled. I,ll bet you , or your stock broker, haven't got the courage of your convictions..ie) do something about it..its easier to just pedal the negativity.
The rest of the economic world aren't buying into Gold so they obviously disagree with your reasoning.
Ftse posted best week in 6 months. And don't come back and tell me 250 is a better indicator because on 24th brexit was taking blame for its drop..
Yes UK has an awful budget deficit debt. Its had one years. If Osbourne worked in private sector in finances they,d have sacked him today. How can government now go onto negotiations with the fool accepting( causing) no confidence in UK business. And why as he done it. So he can lay blame elsewhere for his pathetic management and hang on to his political reputation.
And the weaker pound has absolutely nothing to do with repayments of ,or affects of budget deficit. Our budget deficit was massive when pound at its strongest. Pound has dropped because folk lost confidence in UK...caused by Osbourne.Not brexit.
Only thing that's happened is half wit Osbourne can now blame budget deficit on Brexit.. which
A) Hasn't happened yet
B) As yet we havnt got a clue what REAL affects on economy.
And like I said earlier if you are so confident on recession you can easily profit from it. Sell everything and buy gold.( in recession that,s the haven)
Gold price has stabled. I,ll bet you , or your stock broker, haven't got the courage of your convictions..ie) do something about it..its easier to just pedal the negativity.
The rest of the economic world aren't buying into Gold so they obviously disagree with your reasoning.
Ftse posted best week in 6 months. And don't come back and tell me 250 is a better indicator because on 24th brexit was taking blame for its drop..
Yes UK has an awful budget deficit debt. Its had one years. If Osbourne worked in private sector in finances they,d have sacked him today. How can government now go onto negotiations with the fool accepting( causing) no confidence in UK business. And why as he done it. So he can lay blame elsewhere for his pathetic management and hang on to his political reputation.
And the weaker pound has absolutely nothing to do with repayments of ,or affects of budget deficit. Our budget deficit was massive when pound at its strongest. Pound has dropped because folk lost confidence in UK...caused by Osbourne.Not brexit.
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Get with the programme, I know it's sounds counter intuitive but WEAKER pound is GOOD
Every nation in the world would thank you for it, but can't always achieve it, except examples like China that actually devalued there own currency and the USA were spitting teeth
We currently look at ex rate versus $ and some so oh my god, but the $ is too high, even the US is concerned about it
It is all relative, if you are really going to talk economics at least do your homework, it's getting tiresome
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Derf gave a pretty good analogy, we are already heavily overdrawn, we don't get to call the tune.
Confidence in our economy took a knock, we now have to give them 12% more of our Pound to get their dollars post referendum, that makes the overdraft worse. How are we going to reduce the current account deficit? we need to attract foreign investors .How is Gove or Leadsom going to do that? do they have a plan?
Confidence in our economy took a knock, we now have to give them 12% more of our Pound to get their dollars post referendum, that makes the overdraft worse. How are we going to reduce the current account deficit? we need to attract foreign investors .How is Gove or Leadsom going to do that? do they have a plan?
And there I was thinking we were about to have an informed conversation. With all due respect, it's not how it works.
I notice you didn't mention Osborne or May, why don't you ask them instead of blaming them before they are even in the seat
This constant bitching about brexiteers is now completely beyond natural argument in the lead up to an referendum. It is now stupid, childish, resentful and shows real ignorance about how the world and business works
In favour of reasoned arguments you rely on dubious facts, graphs, and other peoples statements. Why don't you get on with your day job
brendan, it will take years for a weaker Pound to make an impact. A weaker Pound stimulates exports, but the UK is not like Australia or Norway that can pump immediately stuff out of the ground and sell it for cash, we need factories to churn out goods. Pulling out of the EU will cause a number of factories to relocate, reducing our capacity to export. Meanwhile, the cheaper Pound will make imports more expensive. Unless we can reduce drastically imports, our current account is going to get worse, not better. After brexit is completed, uncertainty will disappear, confidence will return, investors will come back and we will be OK again. In the short term, the only good thing about a weaker Pound is pretty immediate inflation. Tax income will rise accordingly. The cost will be born by the poorest in society. They are the ones voting mostly to leave.
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Just goes to show, a little knowledge is sometimes worse than no knowledge at all. Not even an economist would be so certain about the outcomes of the many variables we are talking about, it's kind of like chaos theory if you've heard about that.
The fact is despite the predictions the sky did not fall in, our lives still go on, we still have a deficit as we had before, it's much too soon to make anything more than short term predictions, which of course we will respond to
If you are trying to have an intelligent debate about economics fine, but if you are still on the referendum argument , the game of tennis then frankly I'm bored
I have no problem with the discussions which is what a forum is all about, but the minute I sniff point scoring usually predicated by phrases like " you brexiters" or what do you say about that, you get the point, it's easy to spot. Then all rational discussion and fair response is off the table for me
I hope everyone can take note because the referendum is over, and the decision made, we should now get on with it rather than debating whether we are in economic hell or not, just point scoring
I hope everyone can take note because the referendum is over, and the decision made, we should now get on with it rather than debating whether we are in economic hell or not, just point scoring
What we feel on this forum is not really significant. The 'getting on with it' isn't going to happen - out there in the real world where it matters. Theresa may,whom I loath,but who is a little ray of sunlight compared to Boris or gove, will likely become Tory leader. The economic crap that will hit UK will scare the living daylights out of whoever is left in brexit after seeing all those videos of Boris skulking away from cameras and making it clear it was all a farce. After that I bet you a bottle of cheap champagne brexit will like article 50 be quietly forgotten
There you go, thanks for proving my point. I ignore your comments
lets assume that you are right (for once) and Turkey gets in (someday)
You are due for congratulations aren't you for two things.
- Uniting our friends in the EU as enemies.
- Increasing their military might by getting 70 million Turks with a powerful set of armed forces to join them.
Forgotten that Turkey is a NATO state too?
Think for a moment if the EU decided it needed military muscle, who would it turn to?
Germany and or France, tell me now how do you rate our chances against either in out present circumstances? Care to face a German army again?
Who was going to provide this military help to Cyprus anyway or was it the EU you were referring to as "They"?
This is the worst blunder this nation has ever inflicted on itself, there is more at stake than petty squabbles about money.
If you are right about Turkey getting into the EU you have no reason to celebrate something that has transpired because your foolish vote robbed us of the influence to stop it happening, and there will be lots more things happen that you will not find are to your advantage, but by your own choice are now powerless to prevent.
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TREX, you focus on whatever is perceived to be the current and fashionable bad news story for BREXIT.the Pound is a very good indicator. It shows how confident foreign investors think of our economy.
Another one is the current account. I posted this plot a few days ago.
flud, BrendanJ and Tillson, what do you see as positive in the plot below of our current account deficit? where are we going to find the money ($$$) to give back to those investors who want out?
Before the votes were even cast, you quoted just about every poll going to illustrate that BREXIT was a lost cause and would be defeated.
Following the announcement of the result, we had constant Stock Market updates from you showing how much had been wiped off the value of shares. It was almost like a ticker-tape display. Now we see the Stock Market higher than pre-BREXIT.
Then we turned to the value of our currency and how it was crashing in value. The pound is currently at a higher value against the Euro than it was throughout 2013. The pound strengthened during the Greek debt crisis (2014 - 2015), which incidentally has not gone away, it has simply been fudged postponing the inevitable. Several other countries are stacking up to bring imminent difficulties on the Euro too, so I expect to see the pound strengthen. The pound is definitely currently down against the Dollar, which is to be expected given the temporary uncertainty we have.
Now the latest trendy topic of doom is the Current Account. This one has only surfaced into the news during recent days. I bet no one had heard of it a month ago.
I'm sure that if we can muster the collective will of the country, all talk negatively and try really hard, we will be able to bring on the much yearned for recession. Then, people will be able to sit back, contented, and say, I told you so.
BREXIT has been a shock. No one was really expecting it except BREXIT voters, there is bound to be temporary instability. We have no government or opposition at the moment giving more uncertainty, this is not fertile ground. However, things will settle, order will be restored, the goodness will start to flow again!
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