Brexit, for once some facts.

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,221
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just examine the impact of a £60 billion bill.
If it gives us a reasonably good deal that allows us to keep most of the EU trade and get some new trade elsewhere, then it will pay for itself within a few years. As the EU negotiators already know, it is 'chicken feed' if it's the price for a comprehensive FTA.
Fully agreed, but as OG observed, Joe Public won't see it that way. They'll be furious at any bill after being promised £350 millions a week saving.
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tillson

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 29, 2008
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just examine the impact of a £60 billion bill.
If it gives us a reasonably good deal that allows us to keep most of the EU trade and get some new trade elsewhere, then it will pay for itself within a few years. As the EU negotiators already know, it is 'chicken feed' if it's the price for a comprehensive FTA.
What is to stop the EU reneging on the trade deal once they have the £60 billion in their trouser pocket? Promises tend to fade from memory with time, especially when they (EU) have spent all the money.

To pay up would be a risky strategy and depend on placing a great deal of trust in the EU's integrity.
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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What is to stop the EU reneging on the trade deal once they have the £60 billion in their trouser pocket? Promises tend to fade from memory with time, especially when they (EU) have spent all the money.

To pay up would be a risky strategy and depend on placing a great deal of trust in the EU's integrity.
Actually they have a right to ask for the money without promising anything, what makes you imagine they will?
If anyone lacks integrity it's us not them.

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,221
30,617
What is to stop the EU reneging on the trade deal once they have the £60 billion in their trouser pocket? Promises tend to fade from memory with time, especially when they (EU) have spent all the money.

To pay up would be a risky strategy and depend on placing a great deal of trust in the EU's integrity.
There's no risk of that happening, regardless of what the payment is for. I don't think it's a matter of integrity so much as not daring to be seen as an untrustworthy trading partner, given the huge damage that causes.

Ill-effects that can rapidly follow are increases in interest on borrowing and a consequent downgrading in credit rating. It's the sort of thing that's done by South and Central American countries and why they are always in a mess, not done by first world Western nations.
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anotherkiwi

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 26, 2015
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What is to stop the EU reneging on the trade deal once they have the £60 billion in their trouser pocket? Promises tend to fade from memory with time, especially when they (EU) have spent all the money.

To pay up would be a risky strategy and depend on placing a great deal of trust in the EU's integrity.
Yeah! I mean how can you trust a group of countries that work together! Yuck just imagine...
 

tillson

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May 29, 2008
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Yeah! I mean how can you trust a group of countries that work together! Yuck just imagine...
I'm not sure what you mean, so I'll disregard it.

We would essentially be placing trust in the representatives of a group of countries. Also known as politicians. So now what's not to trust? I think there is more sense in flecc's reply regarding international credibility being damaged by one side or the other reneging.

I'm not sure that they do work together for the common good of all members anyway. Nationalism is alive and well in the EU. Only a couple of weeks ago Germany were talking about the UK financial markets moving there. What about the other member states? Don't they get a look in or does everyone dance to Germany's tune? France may be interested, but the nationalist / human instinct to look after your own kicks in. It always has done and it always will continue to do so.
 
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oldgroaner

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I'm not sure what you mean, so I'll disregard it.

We would essentially be placing trust in the representatives of a group of countries. Also known as politicians. So now what's not to trust now? I think there is more sense in flecc's reply regarding international credibility being damaged by one side or the other reneging.

I'm not sure that they do work together for the common good of all members anyway. Nationalism is alive and well in the EU. Only a couple of weeks ago Germany were talking about the UK financial markets moving there. What about the other member states? Don't they get a look in or does everyone dance to Germany's tune? France may be interested, but the nationalist / human instinct to look after your own kicks in. It always has done and it always will continue to do so.
Unfortunately if left unchecked this self destructive selfish urge throws up the present set of idiots masquerading as policians in power in this country now, who's only skill is to confuse the public into self destructive acts like supporting Brexit, so that they can exploit them.
When is the goodness going to flow tillson?
As to Germany becoming the financial centre of the EU it makes a lot more sense than it being in London ever did, looking at it from their point of view, where else but in the most powerful and stable member of the group would logic put it?
And all we can do is watch......great plan.
 
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tillson

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 29, 2008
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Unfortunately if left unchecked this self destructive selfish urge throws up the present set of idiots masquerading as policians in power in this country now, who's only skill is to confuse the public into self destructive acts like supporting Brexit, so that they can exploit them.
When is the goodness going to flow tillson?
As to Germany becoming the financial centre of the EU it makes a lot more sense than it being in London ever did, looking at it from their point of view, where else but in the most powerful and stable member of the group would logic put it?
And all we can do is watch......great plan.
If the financial market is going to move from the UK, why don't the EU put it in Spain, Portugal or Greece? Share the prosperity around a bit? The answer is because Germany is the biggest child in the playground and when it comes down to it, national self interest always wins.

The EU is a nice idea, but because human beings are running it, human selfishness will prevail.
 

Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
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In the end it was probably a good idea that the EU have insisted that the following have to be agreed before we move forward....
The divorce bill....I cannot see parliament voting for anything other than the balance of our EU contributions....2 years @ £11billion....£22billion...I remember Boris and Redwood saying we should give them nothing.
The border between Eire and NI .....the DUP and Sinn Fein and Ireland have all said there should be no customs border. The only way this can work is if we stay in the customs union ,thereby making Liam Fox's world trade deals illegal.
Just can't see how this can be resolved, the Tory right wingers won't allow May to stay in the customs union,the DUP and Sinn Fein will vote down any attempt to leave the customs union.
The rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens in the EU....this should have been an easy one but the EU is already saying they won't look after the health of our people in the EU.
This will be very difficult to negotiate,I just can't see us getting to stage 2 unless we agree to almost everything the EU wants and that my not be acceptable to our parliament,especially with May's weak position.
As Osborne said its a complete mess.
KudosDave
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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If the financial market is going to move from the UK, why don't the EU put it in Spain, Portugal or Greece? Share the prosperity around a bit? The answer is because Germany is the biggest child in the playground and when it comes down to it, national self interest always wins.

The EU is a nice idea, but because human beings are running it, human selfishness will prevail.
If Germany is the "Biggest Child" what does that make us? they are far richer and more succesful than we are or are ever likely to be, so I guess that means we are the Dunce in the plaground, we have certainly acted like one, and still do.
Whereas London was powerful before and so naturally we were the most deserving?
Utter nonsense, and I would point out that it's actually none of our business what they do thanks to Brexit is it?
And since Human beings (allegedly) are running this country , and it was their selfishness that induced the population to vote for Brexit,
Incidentally playing on the very human emotions of Fear, Greed and Jealousy, plus false promises of better times and investment of the money in the NHS for support, just what the heck are you expecting to come out of this charade at the end of the day?
Congratulations, despite all the warnings behold the joys of Brexit.
Begging for scraps from our previous partners, a Government in turmoil and interestingly no one sees to be polling the public as the whether they still favour Brexit or not, perhaps they would rather not know?
 
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tillson

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May 29, 2008
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If Germany is the "Biggest Child" what does that make us? they are far richer and more succesful than we are or are ever likely to be, so I guess that means we are the Dunce in the plaground, we have certainly acted like one, and still do.
Whereas London was powerful before and so naturally we were the most deserving?
Utter nonsense, and I would point out that it's actually none of our business what they do thanks to Brexit is it?
And since Human beings (allegedly) are running this country , and it was their selfishness that induced the population to vote for Brexit,
Incidentally playing on the very human emotions of Fear, Greed and Jealousy, plus false promises of better times and investment of the money in the NHS for support, just what the heck are you expecting to come out of this charade at the end of the day?
Congratulations, despite all the warnings behold the joys of Brexit.
Begging for scraps from our previous partners, a Government in turmoil and interestingly no one sees to be polling the public as the whether they still favour Brexit or not, perhaps they would rather not know?
Setting your ramblings and unnecessary nastiness aside, I made the point to illustrate that nationalism is present within the EU. Individual countries will always try to manipulate circumstances in order to favour themselves. Being in the EU makes no difference to this trait.
 
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oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
Individual countries will always try to manipulate circumstances in order to favour themselves. Being in the EU makes no difference to this trait.
Yes, I suppose that's inevitable as there will always be some national pride and a desire to get the best deal possible for one's country.

That being a given for as long as man has traversed the planet raping, thieving and murdering, I think the EU has done a splendid job in achieving the task of uniting 28 sovereign nation states for so many years with no major disagreements. The democratic processes have meant that the various representatives had no other option but to continue discussion on many troublesome issues until a consensus was arrived at to the satisfaction of all.

That really is a massive achievement. Sadly, unless a way is found to pull us back from the brink, (unlikely), 27 states will carry on, as successful as it's possible to be in these difficult economic times, relying on each other with the UK outside looking in. They really won't miss us.

Tom
 
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oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
If the financial market is going to move from the UK, why don't the EU put it in Spain, Portugal or Greece?
Thousands of posts ago, I posted that I understood Frankfurt was the bookies' favourite to house all the EU banking dealings. I was informed back then by my French connections that it could well be France and that both the French and the Germans believed that after the UK secession, they would not allow the UK to profit from the transactions of all business from those EU states using the €.

Dublin also came up as a potential favourite but it would not surprise me if the UK's role in these financial trading matters was shared among various sites for a variety of reasons, efficiency not necessarily one of them.

Tom
 
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oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
This young lady seems clear in her views about some of the violence we have witnessed in recent times. I can forgive her occasional choice of gutter language on the grounds that she is very passionate in her beliefs.


Coincidentally, I came upon this yesterday and I think she mentioned the two parties in her video contribution.

19243051_944864972322689_4036022356857521701_o.jpg

And, of course, this has recently come to light:

Britain First Finsbury Park.png

Our society, our culture and our respect from others has been seriously diminished, particularly since the abusers of free speech stirred up the racist elements of our society with their vile anti-EU abuse and lies.

Tom
 
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Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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I'm not sure what you mean, so I'll disregard it.

We would essentially be placing trust in the representatives of a group of countries. Also known as politicians. So now what's not to trust? I think there is more sense in flecc's reply regarding international credibility being damaged by one side or the other reneging.

I'm not sure that they do work together for the common good of all members anyway. Nationalism is alive and well in the EU. Only a couple of weeks ago Germany were talking about the UK financial markets moving there. What about the other member states? Don't they get a look in or does everyone dance to Germany's tune? France may be interested, but the nationalist / human instinct to look after your own kicks in. It always has done and it always will continue to do so.
Tilson, have you been taking lessons from another poster in deliberately misrepresentation of the role and functions of the EU?
The EU cannot and does not act to insert specific industries into specific countries, what it does is regulate the market so that countries cannot gain unfair advantage at the expense of others by state aid etc. So even if it wished, ( and why would it) it does not act as you suggest.
Ireland, France Germany and other countries are all competing for the mobile financial infrastructure which will result when or if the UK loses its Banking passport. Ireland would only get a tiny fraction, because we don't have the housing infrastructure, the massive broadband communications, or a stock exchange. We may and will get some in the niche areas of say aviation financing, where we are a big player and also in some smaller brokerage houses , where our ability to speak passive English might be desired. France and Germany, being the largest remaining economies, have the largest stock exchanges etc.
 
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oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
Is there a price that the British electorate would consider reasonable so that the tories can continue to govern with the backing of the DUP?

If these figures being bandied about in the media - here in the BBC - are even remotely accurate, I should say let's have another election. I know politics is a dirty business but is this really the way we want our parliament to operate?

uk-northern-ireland-40360060

It isn't a great analogy but given the religious nature of the DUP, didn't JC, (the original one), say as he preached his sermon on the mount,
“Do not give what is holy to dogs, neither throw your pearls before swine, that they may never trample them under their feet and turn around and rip you open.”

Tom
 
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soundwave

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 23, 2015
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we should leave the eu and bomb the fkn lot like ww2 ;)
 
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Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,611
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Is there a price that the British electorate would consider reasonable so that the tories can continue to govern with the backing of the DUP?

If these figures being bandied about in the media - here in the BBC - are even remotely accurate, I should say let's have another election. I know politics is a dirty business but is this really the way we want our parliament to operate?

uk-northern-ireland-40360060

It isn't a great analogy but given the religious nature of the DUP, didn't JC, (the original one), say as he preached his sermon on the mount,
“Do not give what is holy to dogs, neither throw your pearls before swine, that they may never trample them under their feet and turn around and rip you open.”

Tom
.. j.donaldsons argument that the subvention to the NI area went into security matters is actually valid.. Whenever I would visit schools colleges universities in NI over those decades, there was an inevitable security presence in every building. .. usually a portly ex serviceman in uniform, checking all packages, cases etc
But money was spent, in NI think back to delorean, strathern audio .
The road network and the schools in NI were pretty good and well equipped.
The unfortunate side effect is to create a dependency culture, very much at odds with the Protestant ethic of self determination and self sufficiency.
. In contrast Wales seems to me was not given a commensurate share
 
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soundwave

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 23, 2015
16,921
6,516
... Was that NI or the EU you had in mind?
well if they dont like it we can try to blow up the moon instead and see what happens.;)
 

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