Brexit, for once some facts.

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

18 - 24 yr olds 36% turnout.
25 - 30 yr olds 58% turnout.

It then jumps into the high 70% and even low 80% for the other older age groups.

Not a high participation at all from under 30s. Shocking.

Along similar lines there is a graph on .gov site claiming ( and claiming to demonstrate) younger generation have not been represented fairly at all in result... The graph is clearly manipulated, the percentage scale stops at 45% ( with tiny labelling) and it shows swing to stay for 30 to 39 age group as ( if you study it carefully) 22%. A quick glance at graph implies age group has had decision forced upon them by older generation.( which is authors claim)
However a result of 22% simply means for a sample size of 100, remaiin votes achieved 55 and leave 45..So , yes, a tendency for younger to vote stay but by no means unanimous.
And this on a government site.
I,ve spent last 40 years handling statistics and its a bit of a curse. You do see when even correct data is put over in a way to foster a different response to that it should do. Afraid its been case throughout from both sides. Trouble is its continuing. Some buy into it, others look behind and deeper.
We really should not need masters degrees in stats to interpret data properly from government. It should be displayed truthfully with no hidden agendas.

We,d all be in a better position to make informed decisions then.

Totally agreed OG. Nice sentiments.

 

[trex]

flud, can you post the link to those stats?
Dimbleby is doing a special Question Time at 18:30 on BBC news if you are interested.

 

[flecc]

18 - 24 yr olds 36% turnout.
25 - 30 yr olds 58% turnout.

I've just used age distribution stats to calculate the 18 to 24 group and it seems that there are at least 6.3 millions in that group.

That means some 4 millions of them didn't vote.

Therefore it would have needed at least three-quarters of them to vote remain with just a quarter to leave for them to overturn the result, and even then it would have been marginal.

So it's unlikely their absence made a difference.
.

 

[flecc]

Along similar lines there is a graph on .gov site claiming ( and claiming to demonstrate) younger generation have not been represented fairly at all in result... The graph is clearly manipulated, the percentage scale stops at 45% ( with tiny labelling) and it shows swing to stay for 30 to 39 age group as ( if you study it carefully) 22%. A quick glance at graph implies age group has had decision forced upon them by older generation.( which is authors claim)
However a result of 22% simply means for a sample size of 100, remaiin votes achieved 55 and leave 45..So , yes, a tendency for younger to vote stay but by no means unanimous.
And this on a government site.
I,ve spent last 40 years handling statistics and its a bit of a curse. You do see when even correct data is put over in a way to foster a different response to that it should do. Afraid its been case throughout from both sides. Trouble is its continuing. Some buy into it, others look behind and deeper.
We really should not need masters degrees in stats to interpret data properly from government. It should be displayed truthfully with no hidden agendas.

We,d all be in a better position to make informed decisions then.

This post I just made agrees Flud, I don't think the young could have made any difference to the result.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

Along similar lines there is a graph on .gov site claiming ( and claiming to demonstrate) younger generation have not been represented fairly at all in result... The graph is clearly manipulated, the percentage scale stops at 45% ( with tiny labelling) and it shows swing to stay for 30 to 39 age group as ( if you study it carefully) 22%. A quick glance at graph implies age group has had decision forced upon them by older generation.( which is authors claim)
However a result of 22% simply means for a sample size of 100, remaiin votes achieved 55 and leave 45..So , yes, a tendency for younger to vote stay but by no means unanimous.
And this on a government site.
I,ve spent last 40 years handling statistics and its a bit of a curse. You do see when even correct data is put over in a way to foster a different response to that it should do. Afraid its been case throughout from both sides. Trouble is its continuing. Some buy into it, others look behind and deeper.
We really should not need masters degrees in stats to interpret data properly from government. It should be displayed truthfully with no hidden agendas.

We,d all be in a better position to make informed decisions then.

Totally agreed OG. Nice sentiments.

Thanks Flud, and lets look forward to stimulating future debates of a friendly nature, and your latest post is spot on, and rather worrying too!
Be both know about "Gee whiz " graph manipulation, I worked for an American Multinational and the practice verged on High Art, especially after "Just in Time" manufacturing came in and the process was examined in more detail the Auditors came in and heads rolled!
A cartoon was posted (but rapidly disappeared) which read, "It's no good pointing at it, the Computer says we haven't got one!"

 

[oldgroaner]

Daily Mail
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/saving/article-3659987/What-Brexit-means-finances-Savings-steps-protect-family-finances.html
Rather different tone to last week eh?
And fishermen rejoice at the end of fishing quotas, so now will destroy the last North sea Fish stocks and have a brief bonanza before going bust.
Except of course the government will have to step in to stop that happening

 

[trex]

for once, I am in total agreement with their financial analysis.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/saving/article-3659987/What-Brexit-means-finances-Savings-steps-protect-family-finances.html

"YOUR AT-A-GLANCE GUIDE TO WHAT BREXIT MEANS
WHAT IS LIKELY

Housing market will stall as buyers and sellers lose confidence and consumers tighten belts.

Fixed rate mortgage rates will fall – with bargain deals available short term.

Savings rates to fall, further battering savers who have suffered years of derisory rates.

Inflation could rise to as high as 4 per cent – squeezing wages and slowing the economy.

Holidays abroad in many places will cost more on the back of a weakening pound.

The price of filling up the family motor will rise by 2 per cent

WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN

The renegotiation of trade agreements with Europe and the rest of the world will lead to uncertainty for employers leading to a squeeze on investment, recruitment and wages.

Annual State pension rises could be hit if the Government rethinks the expensive triple lock – the protection that increases the pension either by 2.5 per cent or matching the rate of inflation as measured by the Retail Prices Index, or the increase in average earnings.

Plans may be revived to scrap generous tax relief on pension saving.

Interest rates may have to rise next year to help put a lid on any runaway inflation – pushing up mortgage rates for millions.

Lower house prices might provide a fillip for first-time buyers – so long as they are in a job and can afford potentially higher mortgage repayments than today.

 

[trex]

apparently the parliaments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have to agree before Brexit can happen.

 

[tillson]

I'm seriously wondering if the EU exit will happen. 4 days ago it would have been totally unthinkable to suppose that MPs would defy the referendum outcome. Even the most radical feeling a sense of inhibition preventing them from mentioning it. Now it is being spoken about, almost with a sense of abandon.

The SNPs are not going to vote this result through and the majority of the others don't support it either. Throw into the mix that we are going to have a new Prime Minister, possibly a new Labour leader or a bloody battle with Corbyn remaining (which I hope he does) and quite likely a General Election and anything can happen.

There are presidential elections in some EU member countries next year with a hunger for an EU referendum in some of those.

Months ago, I seem to recall Boris Johnson making a casual remark about a UK renegotiation once an EU Exit mandate from the people was in the bag. He quickly back tracked when pushed further, but he definitely had thought about it.

I think if all the changes that I mentioned above happen, a lot of Exit voters will feel satisfied that they have their trophy scalps. Add in modest concessions across all EU member states, which may happen ahead of next year's presedential elections to head off the rising right wing parties, and that might be enough to call and win a Stay vote in a second referendum.

I get a feeling this isn't over yet and the next few months are going to be fascinating.

 

[oldgroaner]

Hang on a minute can anyone explain what is happening? This is becoming bizzare!

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[gray198]

Didn't catch the full speech but someone this lunchtime was saying that Westminster can in exceptional circumstances overrule the Scottish parliament. May be wrong about that.

 

[tillson]

Didn't catch the full speech but someone this lunchtime was saying that Westminster can in exceptional circumstances overrule the Scottish parliament. May be wrong about that.

I don't know either. Would be interested to know the definitive answer.

I'm definitely sensing that a proportion of Out voters are getting the jitters. It's almost like they voted for it, but didn't really want it or think it would happen.

I've not really heard any reassurances from the Out camp either. I would have thought it imperative that they speak reassuringly and confidently in the last couple of days. Everyone seems to have gone AWOL.

 

[gray198]

One thing this referendum has done is to shake the political parties out of their complacency. Now labour is falling apart in front of our eyes.

 

[gray198]

I don't know either. Would be interested to know the definitive answer.

As I say I didn't catch the full article, but it sounds like it could be possible

 

[derf]

I'm seriously wondering if the EU exit will happen. 4 days ago it would have been totally unthinkable to suppose that MPs would defy the referendum outcome. Even the most radical feeling a sense of inhibition preventing them from mentioning it. Now it is being spoken about, almost with a sense of abandon.

The SNPs are not going to vote this result through and the majority of the others don't support it either. Throw into the mix that we are going to have a new Prime Minister, possibly a new Labour leader or a bloody battle with Corbyn remaining (which I hope he does) and quite likely a General Election and anything can happen.

There are presidential elections in some EU member countries next year with a hunger for an EU referendum in some of those.

Months ago, I seem to recall Boris Johnson making a casual remark about a UK renegotiation once an EU Exit mandate from the people was in the bag. He quickly back tracked when pushed further, but he definitely had thought about it.

I think if all the changes that I mentioned above happen, a lot of Exit voters will feel satisfied that they have their trophy scalps. Add in modest concessions across all EU member states, which may happen ahead of next year's presedential elections to head off the rising right wing parties, and that might be enough to call and win a Stay vote in a second referendum.

I get a feeling this isn't over yet and the next few months are going to be fascinating.

But wouldn't the "full Albanian" just be more fun, and exciting, and putting yer money where yer mouth is? I think the British deserve a more exciting future

 

[gray198]

What the British deserve is some politicians with the courage to what is necessary to generate some wealth and stop wasting our money on vanity projects. They should get on with fracking for a start, cut the foreign aid budget stop hs2, stop covering the country in useless windmills. There is plenty of potential. They should stop being led by minority pressure groups and do what is necessary even if it is not to everyone's taste

 

[lectureral]

The Art 50 triggering falls under the Royal Prerogative so the government has the power but I can't imagine Cameron will do it so it would fall in the lap of the next PM but I imagine Parliament will be consulted and if it refuses to pass the motion it could all get very sticky - the referendum vote isn't going to be the end of the process by a long shot.

 

[mike killay]

According to American sources, 24,000 of the signatures on the new petition to re-run the referendum are from North Korea and 40,000 from the Vatican.

 

[derf]

What the British deserve is some politicians with the courage to what is necessary to generate some wealth and stop wasting our money on vanity projects. They should get on with fracking for a start, cut the foreign aid budget stop hs2, stop covering the country in useless windmills. There is plenty of potential. They should stop being led by minority pressure groups and do what is necessary even if it is not to everyone's taste

That's more like it, and I bet the other 16 million brexiters like you won't let Boris budge. With any luck garage will step up to the plate and the future will indeed be fascinating, at the very least

 

[gray198]

That's more like it, and I bet the other 16 million brexiters like you won't let Boris budge. With any luck garage will step up to the plate and the future will indeed be fascinating, at the very least

What you talking about and who's garage!!!