Brexit, for once some facts.

[flecc]

Some more positive news for Brexit UK....

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/vauxhall-dead-peugeot-chrysler-car-company-uk-motorist-a7580476.html

Yes, with PSA and GM overcapacity in Europe, it's inevitable that if this deal goes through, both our plants will get the chop since both are going to be outside the EU and eurozone. So 4500 jobs transferred to France. Ellesmere Port and Luton had better be praying that the deal falls through.

Being part owned by the French government, it's likely PSA will also seek to close the native Opel plants in future to take jobs from Germany, all easing France's high unemployment.
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[Woosh]

A federation, not a country. The United States of Europe made up of 27 countries . For the moment the regulations are concentrated on consumer protection and the environnement. The laws on protection of citizens.

I think the world only has a few bullies and I don't see the EU in that group - I would not compare it to the USA, Russia or China in that respect.

The EU forces (not encourages but forces) all members to treat all EU citizens like their own.
Ask yourself why one out of 3 French voters will vote for Marine Le Pen.
Is it because her simple point about 'France for French first' rings the bell for them?

 

[flecc]

Ask yourself why one out of 3 French voters will vote for Marine Le Pen.

As long as 2 out of 3 have the good sense never to vote for her or her party, it doesn't matter why.

She and her party aren't the future, they are a dead past that won't lie down.
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[Woosh]

that's the voting intention in the first round.
In the second round, it looks like Le Pen v Macron. Fillon is practically out of the race.
Le Pen will split the socialist and republican votes in the same way we saw in brexit.
Don't forget the Russian hackers and Wikileaks.
Imagine they find some dodgy stuff on Macron just before round two.

 

[flecc]

If Le Pen does succeed, like Brexit it will be a return to the past, with all that's bad implied by that.
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[Woosh]

it can be a rerun of brexit. Le Pen has a campaign manager similar to Matthew Elliott. Their core messages are very similar.
Last week, the BBC camera went to Hayange, northern France (how will blue collar France vote? Marine of course). Not many of you have witnessed the industrial decline in the Lorraine like I have since my student days in the late 60s and early 70s. I totally get them.
Southerners like AKW living in the land of sunshine, milk and honey (Biarritz) are of course remainers.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

Apparently, more than 20,000 laws and regulations have already been incorporated into British laws. Its relationship with its neighbouring EFTA countries is like a bully has in a small village.
The EU has to change, the sooner the better.

ah, the old classic "apparently"... got a source for that??

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-law-what-proportion-influenced-eu/

essentially, we're part of a trade block, so lots of laws have to be in common, if we have trade agreements with anyone post Brexit, including EU or US etc etc, we'll need to have laws in place to make sure we match with their requirements. In addition we are part of the EU currently, so they haven't been imposed on us, we were part of the group that generated the laws.

 

[Woosh]

ah, the old classic "apparently"... got a source for that??

http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-negotiation-issues-worrying-the-european-parliament/

You can't be more European than the French and yet, because the EU pushes for political union at such a speed and depth that more than one out of three French now disagree.
Let's just wait until April, the landscape may be very different.
My contention is that the EU will need the UK a lot more than UK needing EU.

 

[flecc]

Not many of you have witnessed the industrial decline in the Lorraine like I have since my student days in the late 60s and early 70s.

But that's nothing to do with the EU, as here and the USA it's just due to the export of jobs to China and other Far Eastern countries.

It's self inflicted injury due to greed and short-sightedness, no-one forced companies and consumers to buy cheaply from the Orient.
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[Woosh]

the EU single market results in winners take all.
The winners are the German industrialists and multinationals that will close factories in previously successful industrial countries (Germany, UK, France, Italy) and move production to China, India and Mexico.
It has to change.

 

[flecc]

My contention is that the EU will need the UK a lot more than UK needing EU.

Many of the 27 EU countries scarcely need the UK at all. In addition Germany has openly stated that they can accept the loss of their UK business and there's no doubt that's true.

So regardless of what the core EU enthusiasts want in the greater interest of the EU, if just some of the 27 won't play ball, we won't get a good deal since all 27 have to agree every step.
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[anotherkiwi]

that's the voting intention in the first round.
In the second round, it looks like Le Pen v Macron. Fillon is practically out of the race.
Le Pen will split the socialist and republican votes in the same way we saw in brexit.
Don't forget the Russian hackers and Wikileaks.
Imagine they find some dodgy stuff on Macron just before round two.

Macron is already being accused by rumour of being a closet gay. I don't know how it is going to go, if it goes badly I'll ask for political asylum on the other side of the border... My guess is 65% Macron - 35% Le Pen. Those are the 35% who:

- don't know what the EU does
- believe that they were had when France adopted the Euro
- are racist extreme right wing and always have been
- are using their vote as a protest
- ... your other good reason goes here

The actual break down of the different reasons I don't have a clue.

it can be a rerun of brexit. Le Pen has a campaign manager similar to Matthew Elliott. Their core messages are very similar.
Last week, the BBC camera went to Hayange, northern France (how will blue collar France vote? Marine of course). Not many of you have witnessed the industrial decline in the Lorraine like I have since my student days in the late 60s and early 70s. I totally get them.
Southerners like AKW living in the land of sunshine, milk and honey (Biarritz) are of course remainers.

I was here (since 1977) and witnessed. The US pension funds moved in and bought all the medium sized companies they could, closed the factories and shipped the machines off to the eastern block countries before they even joined the EU. Textile factories went to North Africa. Nothing to do with the EU.

Only the rich and/or retired get the milk and honey. There are no jobs here, many more in S. Sebastian but I can't work there because I am not European... Young people either work in tourism (some of us oldies do too) or care for the elderly. There is still a bit of industry and agriculture - Dassault has a factory here.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-negotiation-issues-worrying-the-european-parliament/

You can't be more European than the French and yet, because the EU pushes for political union at such a speed and depth that more than one out of three French now disagree.
Let's just wait until April, the landscape may be very different.
My contention is that the EU will need the UK a lot more than UK needing EU.

That link is saying there are 20,000 EU laws, not all of them will be incorporated into British laws as I thought you suggested... but i take your point on that on.

However I think you're crediting the electorate in the UK and now in France with too much knowledge or understanding of the issues.

Clearly some in the UK voted based on EU issues, but as we've seen even on here in this thread, let alone in the wider UK discussion about this, a high % of those who voted thought the EU was responsible for many many things it is not. The UK government has done an excellent job with the help of the media to shift the blame for all that is bad onto the EU.

The fact that Brexit will not solve the problems in UK society and not put extra cash into the NHS.

I still can't understand how you think a group of 700+ million people can need a group of 60million more than the other way round.

The only thing the EU needs is for Brexit to show the UK is worse off and the EU will continue nicely....

 

[flecc]

the EU single market results in winners take all.
The winners are the German industrialists and multinationals that will close factories in previously successful industrial countries (Germany, UK, France, Italy) and move production to China, India and Mexico.

But national companies are no different, they too move production to China etc. or opt to buy from there. Those like James Dyson for example, the EU didn't force him to move production. Companies like Brompton who hang on here at present are extremely rare and small in scale anyway.
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[Kudoscycles]

if you are a true brexiter then you expect to pay a price for independence from the ECJ and the EU parliament.
The point is how much inflation would move the split from 52%-48% to 45%-55%.

Are you sure about that,I havent met a Brexiter who thought it would cost any money,they thought that they were going to get minimum £11 billion back from the EU,not become poorer!!!! Actually much poorer !!!
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

Yes, with PSA and GM overcapacity in Europe, it's inevitable that if this deal goes through, both our plants will get the chop since both are going to be outside the EU and eurozone. So 4500 jobs transferred to France. Ellesmere Port and Luton had better be praying that the deal falls through.

Being part owned by the French government, it's likely PSA will also seek to close the native Opel plants in future to take jobs from Germany, all easing France's high unemployment.
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Don't worry THeresa May has a box of candy that will sort that out!!!!
KudosDave

 

[flecc]

Don't worry THeresa May has a box of candy that will sort that out!!!!
KudosDave

Nissan will have eaten them all.

Seriously our financial state won't allow any backhanders, we're struggling already.
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[Woosh]

I still can't understand how you think a group of 700+ million people can need a group of 60million more than the other way round.

Most of its 700 m citizens are the JAMs. The EU may not care for the UK market but it needs money, it cannot afford to lose big contributors.
Imagine for a moment that France voted for Le Pen in April.
The EU would immediately need a new treaty.

 

[Woosh]

I havent met a Brexiter who thought it would cost any money

Then you have not met a true brexiter.

 

[flecc]

The point is how much inflation would move the split from 52%-48% to 45%-55%.

It's not just inflation that Brexit will get the blame for, the government has just outlined their plans for a £12 billions cut in the social welfare budget. That's huge, and the cuts will hit hardest just the very people who were most likely to vote Brexit.

As unfair as it might be, the combination of inflation and cuts in incomes/benefits will be blamed on Brexit since that's the change most evident in the news all the time.

I foresee a large number of minds changing about their Brexit votes as these changes bite. Add the difficulties, delays and impossibilities that will arise in the departure negotiations during the next two years and I could well see the government reversing our departure.

Regardless of the provisions of article 50, the EU would expedite that reversal since we would then be an object lesson to any other of their electorates who thought it would be good on the outside. That's right up the EU's street.
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