Brexit, for once some facts.

[Danidl]

The circumstances are entirely different. We all saw how Putin was holding back for what seemed ages, leaving the West guessing why. It was clear he was trying to assess what the reaction to his invading would be, clearly nervous about it not being too great, such as a NATO response.

In other words he didn't want war beyond the quick fall of Ukraine he planned for, akin to that of Georgia.

If at any time during that long waiting period Ukraine had made the right sort of approach, showing empathy with the Russian position and negotiating to meet Russian needs without any Ukrainian loss, there would be no war now.

It's important to remember or be aware that for the whole of the 20th century Russia and Ukraine enjoyed good relations, with Ukraine a privileged partner. That only ended with the deliberate destabilising of Ukraine by the USA, the consequence being the long standing civil war in Ukraine.

An agreement on the lines I suggest would immediately automatically end that civil war, two birds killed with one well aimed stone.
.

I think your assumptions on his strategy are incorrect. He had almost certainly intended the invasion earlier in February , but XI requested behold off. Then the Biden strategy of leaking his plans meant he had to create a quasi legal framework. Probably a fatal flaw because the Spring came early and the ground unsuitable. He did assume that the populace would greet him as liberator... That was because his underlings yesmen. He expected a stage actor to rollover. He did not expect the kit the Ukrainian were given would be as effective ... Did anyone? . He expected huffing and puffing from EU and no backbone. If anything it is NATO who are following his script.

 

[oldgroaner]

Ukraine wasn't making any links shortly after the millennium, they were happy with their position in their friendly situation with Russia, until the CIA came in and destabilised the country by persuading the population that they'd be much better off in the EU. They did the same in Georgia leading to that conflict. The American intention was to get both into NATO to complete the western and Balkan encirclement of Russia.

It was entirely the USA's fault through their phobic hatred of communism or anything vaguely socialist and believing they had the right to run the world their way.



As I've already explained, he has Donbass and Crimea already. Donbass because the Russian population there had risen up against the US created minority Orange party that had seized power in a coup and deposed the democratically elected pro Russian president and government. Crimea because he used an election to ask the residents of Crimea what they wanted, knowing that as mostly Russian they'd vote his way. They did so he took it.

So he has them already. What he wants and needs is a land link between the two to access and service his Southern fleet secure from threat of attack. That's all, and as I posted Ukraine could easily have given that without any loss.

Whether NATO is or is not a threat to Russia isn't material, it only matters that Russia and now Putin believes NATO is a threat. Hardly surprising when the USA has so keenly pursued surrounding Western and Balkan Russia with NATO countries on the Russian border, often with deliberate covert action to persuade them to join the EU as a stepping stone to NATO membership. These are not things friendly countries do.
.

Really?
Nice MrPutin is killing civilians to gain such trivial and selfish ends?
Not to mention causing huge casualties among his armed forces because of his paranoia?
All you have to do is grovel before him?
To hell with that.

 

[flecc]

Really?
Nice MrPutin is killing civilians to gain such trivial and selfish ends?
Not to mention causing huge casualties among his armed forces because of his paranoia?
All you have to do is grovel before him?
To hell with that.

So you prefer to unnecessarily kill and maim huge numbers out of your false sense of pride, when none of that need have happened.

The Ukraine's attitude is "dog in the manger". The dry desert like Crimea is no use to them and their dominant agriculture. Donbass is no use to them because the population are at war with them. Yet they want to possess them in name only merely out of misplaced pride. Those two are very small and Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe and would remain so after giving them up, so what is the point of wasting so many lives for no material gain and a continuing civil war with Donbass?
.

 

[oldgroaner]

So you prefer to unnecessarily kill and maim huge numbers out of your false sense of pride, when none of that need have happened.

The Ukraine's attitude is "dog in the manger". The dry desert like Crimea is no use to them and their dominant agriculture. Donbass is no use to them because the population are at war with them. Yet they want to possess them in name only merely out of misplaced pride. Those two are very small and Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe and would remain so after giving them up, so what is the point of wasting so many lives for no material gain and a continuing civil war with Donbass?
.

Not a false sense of pride, but the principle Russia thinking it has the right to bully other nations to be subservient to it's will, is a repeat of Germany's attitude in the 1930's and we know where that ended.
They know they can't use their Nuclear weapons under any circumstances, and on this showing their military capability is to put it mildly pathetic. Additionally I wouldn't be surprised if their gas and oil exports infrastructure isn't sabotaged to make their finance situation dire in the extreme.
And Putin will struggle to keep the lid on events when western hackers go after his propaganda apparatus.

 

[oyster]

Not a false sense of pride, but the principle Russia thinking it has the right to bully other nations to be subservient to it's will, is a repeat of Germany's attitude in the 1930's and we know where that ended.
They know they can't use their Nuclear weapons under any circumstances, and on this showing their military capability is to put it mildly pathetic. Additionally I wouldn't be surprised if their gas and oil exports infrastructure isn't sabotaged to make their finance situation dire in the extreme.
And Putin will struggle to keep the lid on events when western hackers go after his propaganda apparatus.

I do wonder what might already have been unleashed - whether recently or years ago. And in any direction.

Could be just a matter of deciding which function to trigger, and when.

The involvement today of Israel should remind us of Pegasus spyware.

 

[Danidl]

So you prefer to unnecessarily kill and maim huge numbers out of your false sense of pride, when none of that need have happened.

The Ukraine's attitude is "dog in the manger". The dry desert like Crimea is no use to them and their dominant agriculture. Donbass is no use to them because the population are at war with them. Yet they want to possess them in name only merely out of misplaced pride. Those two are very small and Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe and would remain so after giving them up, so what is the point of wasting so many lives for no material gain and a continuing civil war with Donbass?
.

Unless you had listened to Putins speech on the night of the invasion ... no coinciliation there . Ukraine with no right to exist .Nazis? drug Pushers? it was probably the first honest visceral speech in his life. all the lies before it was dissimulation ..this was authentic. Of course he hoped his surgical strikes and special forces would cut off the head of the snake , and he would get Ukraine without a struggle and without cost.
Now I did believe in 2014 that Crimea might have been awarded gracefully, because there was a genuine desire for Russia there., and a properly legitimate referendum would have swung it in favour of Moscow. I find no evidence that the same was true for DonBass, . I believe that Putin stuffed that area, and gerrymandered everything. There was it seems a 10% pro Moscow faction and a lot of "non decideds ". When Z got in 3 years ago, he attempted to clear it up and went for an honest brokered solution, with the enthusiasm of youth ... but Putin stymied that , because his final strategy was made up.

 

[oyster]

Given their general unwillingness to discuss nuclear matters, I find it interesting that the NHS documents on handing out iodine tablets (against cancer from nuclear exposure) were updated on 20th January 2022.

Protocols – Potassium iodate and potassium iodide
Document first published: 24 March 2016 Page updated: 20 January 2022 Topic: Emergency Preparedness, Resilience and Response Publication type: Guidance

A specific set of Protocols developed by Public Health England (PHE) in partnership with NHS England, the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and other specialist advice to enable the NHS in England to respond to a chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) event.

NHS England » Protocols – Potassium iodate and potassium iodide

www.england.nhs.uk

 

[Woosh]

Thinking he'd get a quick victory as in Georgia, he went in too light. But he hasn't even begun to bring all his might to bear. That would soon change the picture, we've seen how Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kherson and Mykolalv have been crumbling or fallen. Kiev hasn't suffered an assault to take it over yet, it seems the Russians are just waiting for it to weaken more before that to avoid street to street losses.

don't take the situation in these cities as proof that Putin has won militarily.

 

[oyster]

Eight years make quite a difference:

Putin laughs off sanctions as he signs bills to transfer Crimea to Russia

Fri 21 Mar 2014 13.05 GMT

President promises to open account at blacklisted bank as west signals intent to maintain pressure over Ukraine crisis

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/21/putin-laughs-sanctions-signs-bills-transfer-crimea-russia

When I first said I wanted to be a comedian, everybody laughed. They're not laughing now.
Bob Monkhouse.

 

[flecc]

I find no evidence that the same was true for DonBass, . I believe that Putin stuffed that area, and gerrymandered everything. There was it seems a 10% pro Moscow faction and a lot of "non decideds ".

I did listen to Putin's speech, but its immaterial to my argument. This war was emphatically avoidable at this time and it is only the imminent present we can plan for when others eventual wishes are uncertain.

If the above quotation was true there wouldn't have been any chance of such a long lasting and determined civil war against Ukraine. The last clearly untrue quoted sentence shows how much you are relying on the propaganda of one side.

It's clear that I am arguing against war mongers in here who don't care how many die or get maimed so long as a principle is defended, however unimportant or valueless the principle.

I would like to think Putin will fail, but I think his determination to avoid that could incur incalculable human cost, whatever the outcome. The longer the struggle goes on, the more the Russian Duma and people will come round to his view that Ukraine and the West are the threat.

All unavoidably I argue, especially since no-one has really tried anything like my suggestion to avoid it.
.

 

[oyster]

Propaganda? Lies? Mis-understanding? True?

Well, Daily Star has this to offer tomorrow (dated this evening but appears to be for tomorrow's paper):

Vladimir Putin 'dying in agony from terminal cancer' and pics show his pain, say sources
Russia's President Putin is reportedly suffering from 'terminal bowel cancer', a Pentagon source claims, it comes after he was seen with a 'puffy face' following the invasion of Ukraine

Putin 'dying in agony from terminal cancer' and pics show his pain, say sources

EXCLUSIVE: Russia's President Putin is reportedly suffering from 'terminal bowel cancer', a Pentagon source claims, it comes after he was seen with a 'puffy face' following the invasion of Ukraine

www.dailystar.co.uk

 

[jonathan.agnew]

Propaganda? Lies? Mis-understanding? True?

Well, Daily Star has this to offer tomorrow (dated this evening but appears to be for tomorrow's paper):

Vladimir Putin 'dying in agony from terminal cancer' and pics show his pain, say sources
Russia's President Putin is reportedly suffering from 'terminal bowel cancer', a Pentagon source claims, it comes after he was seen with a 'puffy face' following the invasion of Ukraine

Putin 'dying in agony from terminal cancer' and pics show his pain, say sources

EXCLUSIVE: Russia's President Putin is reportedly suffering from 'terminal bowel cancer', a Pentagon source claims, it comes after he was seen with a 'puffy face' following the invasion of Ukraine

www.dailystar.co.uk

afraid i believe that as much as the promise of humanitarian corridors..the only constant so far in what happened in ukraine, syria has been dissimulation, disinformation - deliberate concealment, bluffing - by russian war machine. But it is a nice thought..

 

[oyster]

afraid i believe that as much as the promise of humanitarian corridors..the only constant so far in what happened in ukraine, syria has been dissimulation, disinformation - deliberate concealment, bluffing - by russian war machine. But it is a nice thought..

Just had a bit more of a look around and saw claims such as him having had surgery for bowel cancer in 2020. Certainly isn't just the Daily Star.

Have to say, if it is true, hurry up.

 

[soundwave]

we need to send in the rocket man to finish him off

 

[jonathan.agnew]

I did listen to Putin's speech, but its immaterial to my argument. This war was emphatically avoidable at this time and it is only the imminent present we can plan for when others eventual wishes are uncertain.

If the above quotation was true there wouldn't have been any chance of such a long lasting and determined civil war against Ukraine. The last clearly untrue quoted sentence shows how much you are relying on the propaganda of one side.

It's clear that I am arguing against war mongers in here who don't care how many die or get maimed so long as a principle is defended, however unimportant or valueless the principle.

I would like to think Putin will fail, but I think his determination to avoid that could incur incalculable human cost, whatever the outcome. The longer the struggle goes on, the more the Russian Duma and people will come round to his view that Ukraine and the West are the threat.

All unavoidably I argue, especially since no-one has really tried anything like my suggestion to avoid it.
.

Quite the contrary. Not warmongers. If the west were more assertive in Ukraine, Afghanistan (Biden sudden withdrawal after trump promised this), the present reality would never have come about. Putin, emboldened by this, took what seemed the west's weakness as an opportunity. You're proposing that we offer him more weakness. More opportunities for expansion, oppression. That he will take. Destroying the Russian war machine now will save, above all, further russian loss of life (and possible nuclear war if the stakes raise further)

 

[flecc]

Destroying the Russian war machine now will save, above all, further russian loss of life (and possible nuclear war if the stakes raise further)

This isn't destroying the Russian war machine, it's strengthening Russian resolve. I repeat:

"The longer the struggle goes on, the more the Russian Duma and people will come round to his (Putin's) view that Ukraine and the West are the threat."
.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

This isn't destroying the Russian war machine, it's strengthening Russian resolve. I repeat:

"The longer the struggle goes on, the more the Russian Duma and people will come round to his (Putin's) view that Ukraine and the West are the threat."
.

No one really believe that narrative. The duma knows the score. That russia has been the aggressor throughout. Perhaps a sustained exchange rate of several hundred ruble to the pound will help them (and the Russian public) appreciate how thoroughly the rest of the world realise this, too.

 

[flecc]

No one really believe that narrative. The duma knows the score.

That's now, but as said:

"The longer the struggle goes on, the more the Russian Duma and people will come round to his (Putin's) view that Ukraine and the West are the threat."
.

 

[soundwave]

 

[soundwave]

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