Brexit, for once some facts.

[Zlatan]

don't forget the role of IDS in the Iraq war. Most of the country was against the war, if it was not for IDS asking his MPs to vote with Blair, the UK may have adopted a more nuanced role , like France.
Nearly all tory MPs voted with Blair.

Didn't know they were knighting IDS??

 

[soundwave]

Didn't know they were knighting IDS??

 

[oldgroaner]

You will have seen all my posts about London's progressively far lower death rates from Covid, but the scale of the difference is such now that it's time to bring all the information together. First, the factors that might influence a London difference.

London does have one advantage, a smaller number of the elderly but this not large enough to give the perceived advantage even from a neutral position. However London's position is far from equal in other respects since we have some huge disadvantages. These are primarily:

First in the UK to be infected with Covid from 29th January 2020 meaning level for level of infections, up to two months longer with Covid.

That very early start meant up to two months more without PPE and social distancing regulations etc than most of the UK.

By far the highest population density of any UK area, the infamous overcrowding in much of our public transport, the most overcrowded homes and some of the worst housing standards in the country, all making a mockery of social distancing.

We have by far the highest proportion of black people at 13.3%, the next nearest in the UK being the West Midlands with 3.3%. As shown by last year's research, they have four times the vulnerability to Covid of the white population. We also have very large populations of the other higher Covid risk ethnic groups having 2.5 to 1.5 times risk. Since barely over 40% of our population are White British with one times risk factor, this all adds up to a huge disadvantage.

Finally our air pollution levels which have resulted in many EU fines and threats during our membership and which are reckoned to account for a mean 3800 additional deaths per year. That's equal to 21% of our annual Covid deaths.

We might reasonably assume from these that London's Covid deaths would be much higher than the rest of the country, but in fact they are much lower, so shockingly so that explanation is demanded. In the following I haven't deducted the London population from the UK one, giving the UK a very slight advantage from the inclusion of London's lower deaths performance in the totals.

Taking the generally accepted population figure for London, (9.4 million) and the UK (67.2 millions), together with all Covid deaths, both within the 28 days measure and mentions on death certificates, London (18,011), the UK (172,657), London has 25.6% less deaths pro rata than the UK.

However, to ensure no inadvertent bias, I've recalculated using the population figures most disadvantageous to London and most advantageous to the UK. These are London down from 9.4 to 9 million, the UK up from 67.2 to 68.4 million. That reduces the London advantage from 25.6 to 20.7% less deaths pro rata, still shocking.

It means between 35,000 and 44,000 in the UK at large who have died from Covid would not have done if they'd had London's benefit. That is what is so shocking.

So what was that benefit? It certainly wasn't the vaccines, since we were first showing an advantage in late summer 2020, long before the vaccines arrived. And to emphasise that, rebellious Londoners have been vaccine resistant with much lower rates:

16.8% of the eligible have not received a first dose, 24.5% have not received a second dose and 57% have not received a booster to date, all far behind the UK vaccination rates.

So no, it clearly wasn't a vaccination advantage over the rest of the country. It was as I've long insisted, the benefit of the very early huge infection hit that we took, our immune systems creating natural immunity potentially more beneficial than the immunity conferred by any of the vaccines.

Having received so much past opposition to my views on this issue, it is naturally pleasing that there's now increasing authoritative support. The first was from Professor David Spiegelhalter, the UK's chief statistician who long after reached the same conclusion as my London one for the UK's data. Then Danidl in here reported a professor of his acquaintance reaching a conclusion exactly matching mine, that the best result comes from being infected first before any vaccination, with the later addition of the first vaccination, then the second, progressively adding to the immunity.

Then Woosh posted the following, giving one reason for the London difference following infection:

"The Roche N assay is the interesting one. It measures the level of N-antibodies (N=nucleocapsid) post infection, the higher, the better.
It shows that London region has the highest seropositivity, South West lowest.
That explains why the death rate in London is lower than national average."

NHS region Weeks 21 - 32

East of England 13.3% (12.1% - 14.6%)
London 25.0% (23.5% - 26.6%)
Midlands 16.2% (15.0% - 17.6%)
North East and Yorkshire 15.7% (14.3% - 17.1%)
North West 20.7% (19.1% - 22.4%)
South East 12.9% (11.7% - 14.2%)
South West 9.4% (8.3% - 10.6%) . . . . . . . . . . LINK

You can see the scale of the London advantage I've highlighted in bold. However that isn't the whole story since the South West measures low but also has a London style advantage with low infection rates.

Conclusions

My first conclusion will be contentious since it has a political dimension. It is that the delay before the government acted to bring in protective measures was not a mistake in hindsight. It was an inadvertent benefit, since it increased the numbers gaining superior natural immunity from prior infection, so ultimately reducing deaths in London. Nor was it selective about who died, since we know Covid sought out the most vulnerable, no matter how early or late the infection. The only material difference was that it brought forward the deaths that did occur by the length of the delay.

My second conclusion with hindsight is that the best way to have tackled the pandemic has three elements:

1) Immediately without any delay introduce PPE and isolation advice exclusively for the most vulnerable due to age or prior health issues, but to no others.

2) Have far better preparedness for the tiny numbers of them who do still get infected and suffer a serious Covid issue to maximise their survival.

3) The above allowing the healthy mainstream population, mostly of working age, to continue living and working as normal without protections, while gaining the low consequence infections and the resulting superior natural immunity before the vaccines arrived.

These would have resulted in a huge economic benefit, while having the potential to substantially reduce total deaths in the way London did for the the latter.

Finally and sadly, the foregoing information is of little use for those who have been vaccinated since the vaccines will in most cases have prevented them from getting sufficiently infected to gain the natural self immunity. The infection needs to be prior to any vaccines to gain that.

For everyone now though, get fully vaccinated.

N.B. All data used up to the end of 31/12/21 where possible.
.

I'll reduce that to a single sentence
Sacrifice the vulnerable then take action
Who needs science? let nature take it's course.
No

 

[guerney]

Didn't know they were knighting IDS??

He married well. I wonder how much it works out per shag?

 

[daveboy]

Teflon Tony, destabiliser of the 21st century world. Appropriate really, he encapsulates what our culture has become almost as well as boris

The Queen has a cunning plan...she just needs to get Tony knelt in front of her with a sword in her hand.

 

[flecc]

I'll reduce that to a single sentence
Sacrifice the vulnerable then take action
Who needs science? let nature take it's course.
No

I suggest you read my post again. The vulnerable were not sacrificed, huge numbers were saved.

But I take it you prefer that at least 35,000 more in the country lost their lives needlessly.

Remember, it wasn't just London producing this advantage, Sweden did too with 30% less deaths than us pro rata. But of course you refused to accept that too.

There comes a time to get the blinkers off.

 

[Woosh]

Didn't know they were knighting IDS??

he'll be in the HoL when he loses his seat. All other toy leaders did.
Blair had the bad luck that 911 happened in his time and he was forced to go to war but IDS was and still is a neocon, one of those who wanted regime change.

 

[oldgroaner]

I suggest you read my post again. The vulnerable were not sacrificed, huge numbers were saved.

But I take it you prefer that at least 35,000 more in the country lost their lives needlessly.

Remember, it wasn't just London producing this advantage, Sweden did too with 30% less deaths than us pro rata. But of course you refused to accept that too.

There comes a time to get the blinkers off.

Then do so, and tell the Japanese how to do it
Japan 18,395 Deaths
UK 148,851 Deaths
Sorry flecc those are Worldometer figures

 

[flecc]

Then do so, and tell the Japanese how to do it
Japan 18,395 Deaths
UK 148,851 Deaths
Sorry flecc those are Worldometer figures

How many times! This is Britain.

We don't do anything necessary immediately, and when we finally belatedly do something it's usually done badly. Until we can instantly convert our population into a wholly Japanese one there's absolutely no point in such comparisons. We will never behave as the Japanese do since we are physiologically and mentally different due to our vastly different evolution, and that will be as true for you as for any of us.

That is why I picked on Sweden over the two years, they are sufficiently similar to us in so many ways and had exactly the same poor start to the pandemic, making the comparison relevant.

As for the Worldometer figures, where do you think they get their data from? Surprise, it's from the countries concerned!

And their UK figure is wrong anyway, it's only the deaths within 28 day of a positive test. The total number of Covid deaths they should have quoted is 172,657. That is the total UK number.
.

 

[guerney]

Why ‘pruning’ friends has been so common during the pandemic

People have become ‘more insular and bonding-oriented’ amid Covid, and now many aren’t sure how to start rebuilding their social lives

www.theguardian.com

 

[guerney]

UK government’s Covid advisers enduring ‘tidal waves of abuse’

Exclusive: Guardian survey shows level of intimidation, including death threats, against scientific and medical advisers

www.theguardian.com

 

[guerney]

COVID-19: Antarctica research station battling coronavirus outbreak

Princess Elisabeth Polar Station implemented strict rules to avoid infections, but at least 16 of its 25 workers have tested positive for COVID, according to a report.

news.sky.com

 

[guerney]

Omicron evades immunity better than Delta, Danish study finds

The Omicron coronavirus variant is better at circumventing vaccinated peoples' immunity than the Delta variant, according to a Danish study published last week, helping explain why Omicron is spreading more rapidly.

www.reuters.com

 

[guerney]

Denmark health chief says Omicron is bringing the END of the pandemic

Tyra Grove Krause - the chief epidemiologist at Denmark's State Serum Institute - said that a new study found that the risk of hospitalisation from Omicron is half that seen with the Delta variant.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[flecc]

A little history lesson

Long ago when we first went into North America, we took our familiar diseases with us, such as the common cold, measles, chicken pox, mumps etc, things we'd long evolved to cope with quite well.

But they had a devastating effect on the North American Indian tribes and their northern Inuit cousins, wiping out huge swathes of them since they lacked any of our immunities.

The Spanish with our same diseases repeated that in Central and South America, wiping out most of their ancient civilised peoples.

Clearly diseases and peoples belong together in the regions where the people have evolved protections and learned to live with those diseases.

So it follows that the success of the Oriental peoples like the Chinese, Japanese and South Koreans in coping with Covid 19 is hardly surprising, given that Covid and the similar diseases are native to their area.

The real scale of the problem arose when with globalisation over time, these Oriental diseases arrived in our unfamiliar areas. Accordingly I think it very doubtful we could be as successful as those peoples in coping with Covid.

Indeed Germany has shown that. In 2020 they had a brave try at emulating the Oriental success and for a short while earned praise for it, but it didn't last long. Since then they've had successive waves of panic at the huge increases in cases from Alpha, Delta and now Omicron as the link at the foot shows numerically and dramatically on the graphs.

Conclusion: Don't compare Oriental and Western outcomes with diseases not native or historically common to both.

Coronavirus in Germany

 

[guerney]

The result of Xmas get togethers:

Concern over ‘leakage’ of Omicron infections into over-50s, minister says

But Nadhim Zahawi says cases in London ‘epicentre’ are ‘beginning to plateau if not drop’

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Danidl]

I suggest you read my post again. The vulnerable were not sacrificed, huge numbers were saved.

But I take it you prefer that at least 35,000 more in the country lost their lives needlessly.

Remember, it wasn't just London producing this advantage, Sweden did too with 30% less deaths than us pro rata. But of course you refused to accept that too.

There comes a time to get the blinkers off.

I have attempted to make sense of the figures again and again.. There is an interesting addendum in the Figures for London ... This is a table identifying all deaths , locations ,whether in or out side hospitals. It makes the case that the number of deaths outside formal settings of Hospitals and care homes, is anomalously low at 43% , and posits that the total number of deaths in the London area maybe under reported by 20%. . I don't follow this, but looked to see whether the whole of England figures had the same detail, and caveats, but did not find that. data . Source London.gov.uk
This does not negate you thesis that a prior "proper" covid infection and recovery provides significant protection from re infection .... At least until Omicron

 

[Danidl]

A little history lesson

Long ago when we first went into North America, we took our familiar diseases with us, such as the common cold, measles, chicken pox, mumps etc, things we'd long evolved to cope with quite well.

But they had a devastating effect on the North American Indian tribes and their northern Inuit cousins, wiping out huge swathes of them since they lacked any of our immunities.

The Spanish with our same diseases repeated that in Central and South America, wiping out most of their ancient civilised peoples.

Clearly diseases and peoples belong together in the regions where the people have evolved protections and learned to live with those diseases.

So it follows that the success of the Oriental peoples like the Chinese, Japanese and South Koreans in coping with Covid 19 is hardly surprising, given that Covid and the similar diseases are native to their area.

The real scale of the problem arose when with globalisation over time, these Oriental diseases arrived in our unfamiliar areas. Accordingly I think it very doubtful we could be as successful as those peoples in coping with Covid.

Indeed Germany has shown that. In 2020 they had a brave try at emulating the Oriental success and for a short while earned praise for it, but it didn't last long. Since then they've had successive waves of panic at the huge increases in cases from Alpha, Delta and now Omicron as the link at the foot shows numerically and dramatically on the graphs.

Conclusion: Don't compare Oriental and Western outcomes with diseases not native or historically common to both.

Coronavirus in Germany

The fundamental point you are making , I agree with,..that there are indigenous diseases and indigenous populations. with levels of immunity .and the reverse was true , in that Europeans did not survive well in the Tropics, where they encountered novel infections.

But the extrapolation of that to the Chinese response to the novel SARs2 as Covid was initially referred to is unwarranted. The success in China and linked countries was the immediate , one might call it Draconian measures adopted. China had the mindset ,the manpower and the basic technology to implement total quarantine. The countries adjacent to them responded swiftly. We didn't. ,And we could have. It really is on us.

 

[flecc]

I have attempted to make sense of the figures again and again.. There is an interesting addendum in the Figures for London ... This is a table identifying all deaths , locations ,whether in or out side hospitals. It makes the case that the number of deaths outside formal settings of Hospitals and care homes, is anomalously low at 43% , and posits that the total number of deaths in the London area maybe under reported by 20%. . I don't follow this, but looked to see whether the whole of England figures had the same detail, and caveats, but did not find that. data . Source London.gov.uk
This does not negate you thesis that a prior "proper" covid infection and recovery provides significant protection from re infection .... At least until Omicron

I've used the same sources, indeed just about all resources such as the Worldometer you've used and the ONS data, but in my post have ensured any bias has always been against my proposition. I even chose to do that with London's vaccination levels which in reality are worse than I portrayed. I can't find any evidence to support under reporting of London deaths, especially on this scale. How could there be short of a large number of Fred Wests burying bodies in houses.

The one major difference against my proposition is in the lower London age profiles. At most this might compensate for the multiple London disadvantages I listed, bringing UK - London parity of outcomes. But the age profile differences could not possibly do both that and gain up to 26% reduction in deaths since that would imply a well over 30% gross difference in deaths per 100,000.
.

 

[flecc]

The success in China and linked countries was the immediate , one might call it Draconian measures adopted. China had the mindset ,the manpower and the basic technology to implement total quarantine. The countries adjacent to them responded swiftly. We didn't. ,And we could have. It really is on us.

I do agree with this of course, but there is far more to it than just draconian action. The peoples of these countries are far more disciplined and compliant than us, particularly in Japan for example and to a considerable extent South Korea.

This is also evolutionary, a developmental coping mechanism, seen for example in the widespread Oriental practice of mask wearing for common colds and the like.

With the partial exception of German servility, we in the west haven't behaviourally developed in remotely the same way as the Orientals, and as you imply, we pay the price for it.

It's unavoidable this side of probably 1000 years.