Brexit, for once some facts.

[Zlatan]

I suspect Boris might be announcing a change in policy with vaccine tonight,or perhaps its wishful thinking on my part.

I, ve found the Stanley Johnson thing very annoying. Daughter had jab very early, which I was really pleased with. Since having jab she, s got 2 kids(4 and 6 Yr old) out of a burning building. (both hiding under beds), she, s got a drunk out of his car after he, d ploughed into a wall, breaking both his legs and trapping himself in car, she administered first aid whilst rest chopped roof off to extricate the fool and she, s helped empty a care home threatened with flooding. (where she volunteers to help)..
Then she gets letter saying she can wait for 2nd jab whilst Stanley gets his...
Strange priorities...

 

[oldgroaner]

Name the insulting ones. Now in this post I have not called anyone anything, you are making an inference.
But getting back to the major point, a number of us were very clear that the proposal / decision of your CMO etc to delay the second jab was a bad idea. We were not questioning his motives, which were probably about seeking the greater good for the many, but the sense of it.
As regards self congratulations .. well yes, I reserve the right to remind you that I am not an airhead from time to time when my many predictions and observations are proven accurate. It is a lesson you might take to heart

There is as much chance of that as Johnson making a wise decision

 

[oldgroaner]

I suspect Boris might be announcing a change in policy with vaccine tonight,or perhaps its wishful thinking on my part.

I, ve found the Stanley Johnson thing very annoying. Daughter had jab very early, which I was really pleased with. Since having jab she, s got 2 kids(4 and 6 Yr old) out of a burning building. (both hiding under beds), she, s got a drunk out of his car after he, d ploughed into a wall, breaking both his legs and trapping himself in car, she administered first aid whilst rest chopped roof off to extricate the fool and she, s helped empty a care home threatened with flooding. (where she volunteers to help)..
Then she gets letter saying she can wait for 2nd jab whilst Stanley gets his...
Strange priorities...

And worst of all the Tory vermin as a thank you for the valiant effort and sacrifice the NHS staff have made to save lives
Voted to include the NHS in any trade deal
To me they are committing Treason
The NHS is the only state institution that benefits the human race all others are parasitic on it
If there was any justice in this world the people who voted to sell the NHS should be in jail

 

[oldgroaner]

From the FT's long read on the Brexit negotiations

Fancy that! well I never!

 

[flecc]

ONS:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsinthecommunityinengland/antibodydatafortheukjanuary2021



According to the ONS, around 8 millions of us have been infected at some time in the past year. 3.54 millions have been tested positive so 4.5 millions (55%) did not show symptoms or did not get tested.
355,000 hospital admissions, 10% of those who have been tested positive.
About 100,000 died, covid kills 1.25% of its victims.
here is my speculation:
On this basis, if we were to adopt the herd immunity strategy last year without the vaccines, 45 millions of us would have contracted the virus, 4.2% of the 45 millions or 2 millions hospitalised, 1.25% or 850,000 would have died.
The vaccines save an estimated 1.5 millions hospitalisations and 700,000 deaths.

But as I posted long ago and you acknowledged, in that scenario with just simple advice being given together with no mention of herd immunity, simple publishing of only the death rate and infection rate, no complex charts or conflicting figures, no bullying with large fines getting the public's back up, everyone left in work or school where they'd be much safer in controlled conditions without all the socialisiing we saw, none of that would have happened to the same degree.

No-one likes being told what to do, unless it's themselves doing the telling. The public would have understood the simple stark message of the two figures and accepted and acted better on the simple advice.

The infection and death rates would have plummetted, out of fear.
.

 

[flecc]

there are fewer opportunities to learn on the job.

Except in politics where most seem to be at early learning or primary level.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

Except in politics where most seem to be at early learning or primary level.
.

Flatterer

 

[Zlatan]

Since the mid 1980s a shift has been taking place in the U.K. People have been securing top public service jobs based on many factors, non of which are competence and ability. This has crept into every corner of the country including politics. A strange admiration also exists for those who “blag it” the “Jack the lad” types, they seem to prosper.

Once in position, the incompetents and blaggers fill the junior roles below them with fellow incompetents / blaggers. Presumably this is done through fear of someone who knows what they are doing exposing the top man as an idiot. You can imagine that after 35 years of this, all public services and government posts are crammed full of clowns.

In normal times, they can just about get away with it vis BS, but then a pandemic comes along where there competence and ability has real impact and consequences. Since March 2020, the rest is history.........

I was saying exactly this 25 years ago in education. The folk getting promotion were not the best at job, best qualified or anything of kind. They were the ones jumping on this months bandwagon. When that one screeches to a halt they jumped onto another. It has meant for over 20 years now policy has swapped and changed, no consistency and no real progress. Kids are less well educated now than any time in last 50 years. The best folk had to leave or were pushed out..

 

[Woosh]

But as I posted long ago and you acknowledged, in that scenario with just simple advice being given together with no mention of herd immunity, simple publishing of only the death rate and infection rate, no complex charts or conflicting figures, no bullying with large fines getting the public's back up, everyone left in work or school where they'd be much safer in controlled conditions without all the socialisiing we saw, none of that would have happened to the same degree.

No-one likes being told what to do, unless it's themselves doing the telling. The public would have understood the simple stark message of the two figures and accepted and acted better on the simple advice.

The infection and death rates would have plummetted, out of fear.
.

but your strategy is similar to what the government has been doing.
We still have no effective treatment, only stuff to relieve symptoms.
The only way out is still the vaccines which is herd immunity without catching the disease.
The basic case fatality rate 1.25% still holds true.

 

[Danidl]

but your strategy is similar to what the government has been doing.
We still have no effective treatment, only stuff to relieve symptoms.
The only way out is still the vaccines which is herd immunity without catching the disease.
The basic case fatality rate 1.25% still holds true.

"The basic case fatality rate 1.25% still holds true." .. the Worldometer figure is 3%. And has remained depressingly so since about July. This figure is based on close on 100M Confirmed Cases, 2.1M deaths and 70M recorded as recovered.

 

[Zlatan]

Flecc
I don't think you can blame government for death toll with argument they have done too much..
The financial packages have been generous in most cases and its costing us a fortune, but to then say they should have done less with regards restrictions is actually taking blame away from them.
They probably locked down late and came out early, perhaps their messaging has been confusing, all debatable points. But doing what Sweden did is far less than ours.. I suspect had we followed Sweden, we would have 150k deaths..
Out of interest do you think our current lockdown /restrictions curtailed the numbers infected or just coincidence?
I suspect without the measures we, d be looking at 100k infections per day at least by now. Hospitals would have failed 10 days ago and things would still be deteriorating.???
Hypothetical, I know, but I, m fairly sure all agreed without any restrictions we, d be looking at 500k deaths..??! (Ferguson predicted that even with some restrictions)

 

[Zlatan]

"The basic case fatality rate 1.25% still holds true." .. the Worldometer figure is 3%. And has remained depressingly so since about July. This figure is based on close on 100M Confirmed Cases, 2.1M deaths and 70M recorded as recovered.

They don't assume any infected apart from those reported. Most countries are testing at best 30% of those actually infected.
Trouble is we just don't know how many world wide infected, we have a fair idea here but looking on estimates earlier in week even ours are at best an estimate.

 

[oyster]

Sounds like a plan.

The Office for National Statistics has insisted the 2021 census will go ahead in March, despite the possible risk of spreading Covid.

The agency said the impact of coronavirus and Brexit meant it was more important than ever to conduct the census as planned on 21 March. It added that postponing it would cost an estimated £360m.

A team of 30,000 field workers, who will be sent to homes to remind people to complete the forms, will be given regular lateral flow tests for the virus to mitigate the risks.

The head of the census, Pete Benton, said: “They’ll be tested twice a week for coronavirus. And of course, they won’t go out if they have a positive test. We’re just working through the details of that at the moment.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jan/22/uk-census-will-go-ahead-in-march-despite-covid-says-ons

 

[flecc]

but your strategy is similar to what the government has been doing.

But in every way in a totally stupid and ineffective manner. That was the whole point of my reply!

We still have no effective treatment, only stuff to relieve symptoms.
The only way out is still the vaccines which is herd immunity without catching the disease.
The basic case fatality rate 1.25% still holds true.

Of course, no disagreement. But with the ways I stated the infection rate plummeting would mean the 1.25% would be far fewer people.

And with our very shaky vaccine situation better placed until that was corrected.
.

 

[oyster]

Covid-19 mortality figures missing thousands.

Epidemiology of post-COVID syndrome following hospitalisation with coronavirus: a retrospective cohort study

Daniel Ayoubkhani, Kamlesh Khunti, Vahé Nafilyan, Thomas Maddox, Ben Humberstone, Sir Ian Diamond, Amitava Banerjee

doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249885
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249885v1

 

[Danidl]

I suspect Boris might be announcing a change in policy with vaccine tonight,or perhaps its wishful thinking on my part.

I, ve found the Stanley Johnson thing very annoying. Daughter had jab very early, which I was really pleased with. Since having jab she, s got 2 kids(4 and 6 Yr old) out of a burning building. (both hiding under beds), she, s got a drunk out of his car after he, d ploughed into a wall, breaking both his legs and trapping himself in car, she administered first aid whilst rest chopped roof off to extricate the fool and she, s helped empty a care home threatened with flooding. (where she volunteers to help)..
Then she gets letter saying she can wait for 2nd jab whilst Stanley gets his...
Strange priorities...

Zlatan, your daughter as a front line emergency worker should have been in the first tier. That should include Firefighters, Paramedics, Police .. A&E staff and that would include my son who works in police command and control. The importance of all of them having them properly vaccinated , is not only that they don't get ill, but that the SERVICE will grind to a halt without them. He is not in the same peril as your daughter, but the consequences of his team going down are as least as serious .

 

[Danidl]

They don't assume any infected apart from those reported. Most countries are testing at best 30% of those actually infected.
Trouble is we just don't know how many world wide infected, we have a fair idea here but looking on estimates earlier in week even ours are at best an estimate.

That is the problem ..lack of knowledge. But until December ,We did have a very good handle on it. When testing is producing a 1% positive rate, you know you are winning, and the infection rate , hospital admission rates are all in synch. When it gets to 5% , one is all over the shop.

 

[Woosh]

"The basic case fatality rate 1.25% still holds true." .. the Worldometer figure is 3%. And has remained depressingly so since about July. This figure is based on close on 100M Confirmed Cases, 2.1M deaths and 70M recorded as recovered.

the 1.25% comes from 100,000 deaths/8 million cases, estimate by ONS, taking into account those who don't bother with a test.
If you go for herd immunity without vaccines, you multiply these two numbers by 8.

 

[Woosh]

But in every way in a totally stupid and ineffective manner. That was the whole point of my reply!



Of course, no disagreement. But with the ways I stated the infection rate plummeting would mean the 1.25% would be far fewer people.

And with our very shaky vaccine situation better placed until that was corrected.
.

compared to the 1918 flu, 228,000 deaths out of 43 millions UK residents.
Back then, the population density was a third less, so herd immunity could be achieved with smaller percentage - say 60%. The fatality rate would be around 228,000/26 millions, a tad under 0.9%.
On this progression, the next pandemic would be 35% worse.

 

[flecc]

compared to the 1918 flu, 228,000 deaths out of 43 millions UK residents.
Back then, the population density was a third less, so herd immunity could be achieved with smaller percentage - say 60%. The fatality rate would be around 228,000/26 millions, a tad under 0.9%.
On this progression, the next pandemic would be 35% worse.

Absolutely none of that follows.

The public health back then was terrible compared to now. When WW1 commenced in 1914 the government of the day had been shocked at the poor condition and general lack of health and fitness of the volunteers to serve in the army and much soul searching about that followed then and after the war. And of course the primitive living conditions of most back then were also a very big contributor, commonly no running hot water, no bathrooms, outside toilets, a single coal fire to heat a house, no health service.

It was a population with living and health conditions primed to be terminal victims of any pandemic and the outcomes of that flu were no surprise at all.

Today there's no comparison.
.