Brexit, for once some facts.

Woosh

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I’m not bothered if people get coronavirus as long as they don’t die or go into hospital.
from what he said (I watched him on BBC News), some residents died after being vaccinated with the first jab. His point is the vaccine does not work on more than half, they (the latter group) get virtually no protection.
Basically, the outcome is not uniform. Some are just unlucky.
 

Woosh

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Then we wouldn't be up the present creek now.
we would have been up the present creek back last spring.
Even now, around 15% of us have come into contact with the virus and our hospitals are already overflowing. Just imagine what they would be like if 7 millions of us down with covid and need hospitalisation in 3-4 months. The case fatality rate would have been much higher.
 

Danidl

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I’ve always been approaching this from the point of view that one vaccination gives high 90% protection from hospitalisation and death, not actually getting Covid.

I’m not bothered if people get coronavirus as long as they don’t die or go into hospital. This is also the basis of the government’s vaccination strategy. However, doubts regarding the protection from death and hospitalisation afforded by one vaccination are now starting to appear, Israel and care homes.

The default position should now shift to caution, ie give two vaccinations 21 days apart whilst the strategy of one vaccination is investigated further. It’s madness to plough on past these red traffic lights that have suddenly popped up.
Agreed. And if you look back at everyone of my postings on the topic it was to follow the science*
*Science a systematic investigation using experiments and measurements , made in as objective a fashion as possible.
 
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Zlatan

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Even someone very thick would figure out that I don't respond to personal attacks.
Good job. You deserve them.
And a lot of your posts are either personally insulting or self congratulatory .... often both.
And this post is contradictory. You, ve called somebody thick but then you say you don't insult folk. Says it all.
 
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Jesus H Christ

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Agreed. And if you look back at everyone of my postings on the topic it was to follow the science*
*Science a systematic investigation using experiments and measurements , made in as objective a fashion as possible.
In fairness Danidl, JVT and Whitty are charged with taking care of our medical safety and wellbeing. You can’t disregard everything and you have to listen to someone. These two aren’t politicians, they are both professors of medicine holding the highest medical positions in the U.K. They aren’t Internet conspiracy theorists.

As far as I’m concerned, we are hurtling down the runway not quite at V1. We’ve had a couple of amber engine captions come up on the panel, we can still reject the takeoff and walk away. It’s crazy to continue.
 

Woosh

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It’s crazy to continue.
yes, a bit.
there are 5 millions that have been vaccinated with the first jab.
The rate of vaccination at present is 2 millions a week, and increasing.
If you split half way, you can carry on giving 1 million jabs a week to the first group their second dose at 3-6 weeks, continue with the remaining population at 1 million jabs a week.
Herd immunity is at around 70%, we should be out of the wood when 45 millions of us are fully vaccinated. So 40 millions to go, that will bring us to around October.
In any case, the number of new cases will start coming down from May onward because of the sunlight.
There is a calculator here:
https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk
 

flecc

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we would have been up the present creek back last spring.
Even now, around 15% of us have come into contact with the virus and our hospitals are already overflowing. Just imagine what they would be like if 7 millions of us down with covid and need hospitalisation in 3-4 months. The case fatality rate would have been much higher.
That wouldn't have happened, not even remotely near. It contains assumptions that very large numbers of us would be suffering severely. But we don't, the great majority of us only get mild symptoms which pass.

And in many large areas far higher numbers of us have probably contracted Covid-19 than 15%. Nothing the authorities are telling us can be trusted. Many months ago London after its 2.5 times infection rate of the rest of the country in the first phase was being said to have 25% infected, I even posted an official statement on that at the time. Now all these many months later it's being said we are at around 15% and well below Yorkshire's 20%.

So 10% of us in London have magically uninfected ourselves with no trace left !!!

Meanwhile the Pfizer vaccine is now being administered in a way which will probably prove to be near to useless as a defence, especially against the new variant; the Astra-Zeneca introduced without third stage approval and government policy constantly changes by the minute.

I don't do the bogeymen stuff and the panic reactions that come with it. Staying cool with simple public guidance and hardly any of the billions spent in keeping people away from work and school where they'd have been safer would have been enough.
.
 

Woosh

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So 10% of us in London have magically uninfected ourselves with no trace left !!!
there are traces.
those who came into contact with Covid produce antibodies.
The 15%-18% is ONS estimate based on their survey of covid antibodies.
I watched Robert Cuffe on BBC last Tuesday.
 

oldgroaner

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Put not your trust in princes
And certainly not Tory policians
From the Guardian a year ago

The business secretary has been forced to admit the existence of a previously secret package of state aid to Nissan that could have been worth up to £80m had the carmaker gone ahead with plans to manufacture a new model X-Trail in Sunderland after Brexit.

Greg Clark released a letter dated October 2016 in which he pledged tens of millions of taxpayer support and promised the Japanese company it would not be “adversely affected” after the UK left the EU.
Yet, at the time the commitments were first made, Downing Street had said “there was no special deal for Nissan” and Clark refused six times to answer a question about what was on offer when interviewed on the BBC. He even appeared to suggest no money was involved. Asked on BBC One’s Question Time about the deal, he said: “There’s no chequebook. I don’t have a chequebook.”

Now we hear encouraging noises from Nissan...what bribery has there been this time, and how will the EU view vis a vis the "Level Playing field part of the agreement?
 

flecc

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there are 5 millions that have been vaccinated with the first jab.

If you split half way, you can carry on giving 1 million jabs a week to the first group
Just over millions was enough to cover the entire first group including all over 80s, the government said as much at the outset. So the fact that having virtually reached that, the best they've managed in an area is 67% of the over 80s and it was announced last night that it's only 50% of over 80s in London is a measure of their total incompetence at administering the vaccine.

As usual, they've made an appalling mess of this in every possible respect.
.
 

Danidl

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Good job. You deserve them.
And a lot of your posts are either personally insulting or self congratulatory .... often both.
And this post is contradictory. You, ve called somebody thick but then you say you don't insult folk. Says it all.
Name the insulting ones. Now in this post I have not called anyone anything, you are making an inference.
But getting back to the major point, a number of us were very clear that the proposal / decision of your CMO etc to delay the second jab was a bad idea. We were not questioning his motives, which were probably about seeking the greater good for the many, but the sense of it.
As regards self congratulations .. well yes, I reserve the right to remind you that I am not an airhead from time to time when my many predictions and observations are proven accurate. It is a lesson you might take to heart
 
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Woosh

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ONS:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsinthecommunityinengland/antibodydatafortheukjanuary2021

  • In England, an estimated 1 in 8 people (95% confidence interval: 1 in 9 to 1 in 8) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in December, suggesting they had the infection in the past.
  • In Wales, an estimated 1 in 10 people (95% confidence interval: 1 in 14 to 1 in 8) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in December, suggesting they had the infection in the past.
  • In Northern Ireland, an estimated 1 in 13 people (95% confidence interval: 1 in 28 to 1 in 7) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in December, suggesting they had the infection in the past.
  • In Scotland, an estimated 1 in 11 people (95% confidence interval: 1 in 14 to 1 in 9) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in December, suggesting they had the infection in the past.
According to the ONS, around 8 millions of us have been infected at some time in the past year. 3.54 millions have been tested positive so 4.5 millions (55%) did not show symptoms or did not get tested.
355,000 hospital admissions, 10% of those who have been tested positive.
About 100,000 died, covid kills 1.25% of its victims.
here is my speculation:
On this basis, if we were to adopt the herd immunity strategy last year without the vaccines, 45 millions of us would have contracted the virus, 4.2% of the 45 millions or 2 millions hospitalised, 1.25% or 850,000 would have died.
The vaccines save an estimated 1.5 millions hospitalisations and 700,000 deaths.
 
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Jesus H Christ

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Name the insulting ones. Now in this post I have not called anyone anything, you are making an inference.
But getting back to the major point, a number of us were very clear that the proposal / decision of your CMO etc to delay the second jab was a bad idea. We were not questioning his motives, which were probably about seeking the greater good for the many, but the sense of it.
As regards self congratulations .. well yes, I reserve the right to remind you that I am not an airhead from time to time when my many predictions and observations are proven accurate. It is a lesson you might take to heart
I’ll agree that you aren’t an airhead, but you are a knob-head. Stop.
 
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Danidl

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In fairness Danidl, JVT and Whitty are charged with taking care of our medical safety and wellbeing. You can’t disregard everything and you have to listen to someone. These two aren’t politicians, they are both professors of medicine holding the highest medical positions in the U.K. They aren’t Internet conspiracy theorists.

As far as I’m concerned, we are hurtling down the runway not quite at V1. We’ve had a couple of amber engine captions come up on the panel, we can still reject the takeoff and walk away. It’s crazy to continue.
My problem with the UK Government is that they have lost credibility. And it is an attitude I understand is shared by a lot of UK citizens. I have much more faith with and in the Irish Government and civil service . The sequence of U turns, backtracking, solo runs since last March done by your Government on Covid is beyond bizarre. They are the architects of this credibility gap. I have huge respect for UK Science and Scientists.. unfortunately that is not shared by senior UK policymakers.
I could list the sequence of errors and wrong-headedness , but it would be just too depressing. It is not just a problem for the UK, but leaks over to Ireland also, as the NI DUP slavishly follow diktats from Whitehall.
I am not saving that Ireland's response was perfect..we made and are still making serious errors, of which removing a lockdown on December 1st was the latest and most blatent.. and it is when the Government went against the advice of NEPHT .
 
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Jesus H Christ

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Dec 31, 2020
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My problem with the UK Government is that they have lost credibility. And it is an attitude I understand is shared by a lot of UK citizens. I have much more faith with and in the Irish Government and civil service . The sequence of U turns, backtracking, solo runs since last March done by your Government on Covid is beyond bizarre. They are the architects of this credibility gap. I have huge respect for UK Science and Scientists.. unfortunately that is not shared by senior UK policymakers.
I could list the sequence of errors and wrong-headedness , but it would be just too depressing. It is not just a problem for the UK, but leaks over to Ireland also, as the NI DUP slavishly follow diktats from Whitehall.
I am not saving that Ireland's response was perfect..we made and are still making serious errors, of which removing a lockdown on December 1st was the latest and most blatent.. and it is when the Government went against the advice of NEPHT .
Since the mid 1980s a shift has been taking place in the U.K. People have been securing top public service jobs based on many factors, non of which are competence and ability. This has crept into every corner of the country including politics. A strange admiration also exists for those who “blag it” the “Jack the lad” types, they seem to prosper.

Once in position, the incompetents and blaggers fill the junior roles below them with fellow incompetents / blaggers. Presumably this is done through fear of someone who knows what they are doing exposing the top man as an idiot. You can imagine that after 35 years of this, all public services and government posts are crammed full of clowns.

In normal times, they can just about get away with it vis BS, but then a pandemic comes along where their competence and ability has real impact and consequences. Since March 2020, the rest is history.........
 
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Woosh

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You can imagine that after 35 years of this, all public services and government posts are crammed full of clowns.
there may be a simpler explanation. Degrees are easier to earn. We have also stopped making things so there are fewer opportunities to learn on the job.
 

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