Brexit, for once some facts.

oyster

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Basically, the old firm civil service along with their associates and partners in crime are being cleaned out. Some realise that their positions are untenable under the new regime. It's no big deal and nothing to get excited about.
I don't see it like that. If you lose all your experienced civil servants, you end up losing your ability to do the very things you want to do.

And it might not only be civil servants you lose:

Senior Conservative MPs and a raft of legal experts have urged the government not to go ahead with plans to drive through a change to the Brexit agreement on Northern Ireland after a minister conceded it would break international law.

The remarkable admission by Brandon Lewis, secretary of state for Northern Ireland, followed the resignation of the most senior legal civil servant and has raised questions over the future of justice secretary, Robert Buckland, and attorney general, Suella Braverman, both of whom have taken oaths to uphold the rule of law.
 

Danidl

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All my data is from ONS and other Government source.
That explains the discrepancy. .. your document regarding overall deaths referred to England not the UK.
Many many people will linger on longer than 28 days to die from CV19. .. especially if they are young and strong
 

oyster

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Down to six meeting for those in England as of Monday. Oh dear. :(

This decision has been made on the basis of increased positive tests. Despite people unable to get tested, not getting results for the best part of a week, etc. If plenty of tests had been available, would they have made the decision earlier? Or would we now be seeing significantly higher confirmed cases?
 
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oldgroaner

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That explains the discrepancy. .. your document regarding overall deaths referred to England not the UK.
Many many people will linger on longer than 28 days to die from CV19. .. especially if they are young and strong
This is where Brexit thinking could be applied.
Using their logic we should develop a vaccine that either kills or cures within say a week.
Plusses
  1. Easier Government statistics
  2. Weeds out all but the strongest (or is that luckiest)
  3. Fits in nicely with Cummings Eugenics theories
Negatives
  1. Not as much fun as Russian Roulette
  2. Likely to run into a new strain in a week or two where it won't work
  3. Unlikely distribution to be well organised enough to work
  4. Most people will quite sensibly hide
:oops:
 
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sjpt

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Question on https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54064347

I can clearly see why cases/death graphs show weekly cycles. It is not clear to me why there is such a big variation in confirmed cases as a proportion of tests.

38222

(semi-related) Trump should be really proud how closely the US statistics are tracking those of Brazil through the weekly variations.


38223
 
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oyster

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Why is state aid such a red line that the rubicon of legality is being breached?

Tech ambitions said to lie at heart of Britain’s bonkers crash-and-burn Brexit plan
State aid needed to nurture the UK’s first-trillion dollar tech company, political puppet-master claims
https://www.theregister.com/2020/09/08/state_aid_tech/

One comment on the above is:

Quote from today's FT:​
Kim Darroch, Britain’s former ambassador in Brussels and Washington, recalls how Treasury officials working for the Thatcher government in the 1980s designed the EU state aid rules precisely to foster fair competition and to stop other European countries engaging in a subsidy race....​

As I see it, state aid is in full flow. In the sense that they have made so many deals without any tendering process. Doesn't this amount to a subsidy to the companies getting those deals? I certainly expect dividends and remunerations to be significantly funded by the excess contract prices we have agreed.
 

oyster

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Question on https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54064347

I can clearly see why cases/death graphs show weekly cycles. It is not clear to me why there is such a big variation in confirmed cases as a proportion of tests.

View attachment 38222

(semi-related) Trump should be really proud how closely the US statistics are tracking those of Brazil through the weekly variations.


View attachment 38223
Not sure how to factor in the severe delays being reported between test and result - e.g. all too often five days or more.

The longer the period, I suspect the more are likely to pass on infection.

Also, just what happened to the random testing which was supposed to inform the "real" rates without some of the issues such as focus on hotspots?
 
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oyster

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They are all bonkers:

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has been giving interviews this morning. He has refused to rule out a further national lockdown. And he has also offered an explanation for why many people have been finding it impossible to get a coronavirus test. It is because people are booking tests who do not need them, he told the Today programme. He said:

The reason we have constraint at the moment is not because capacity has gone down; far from it, capacity has gone up. It’s that we’ve suddenly seen this rise in demand from people who are not eligible. For instance, I’ve read stories of whole schools being told to go and get a test. That is not what the testing is there for. We need it for people who are symptomatic.​

Umm, so you totally ignore the asymptomatic people who then go on to infect many others?

I guess that also means that no post-mortems will be allowed to use tests to identify if they died with/from Covid-19.

(As well as those who have the more common and obvious symptoms not really needing a test except as confirmation.)
 
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Wicky

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Why is state aid such a red line that the rubicon of legality is being breached?

Tech ambitions said to lie at heart of Britain’s bonkers crash-and-burn Brexit plan
State aid needed to nurture the UK’s first-trillion dollar tech company, political puppet-master claims
https://www.theregister.com/2020/09/08/state_aid_tech/

One comment on the above is:

Quote from today's FT:​
Kim Darroch, Britain’s former ambassador in Brussels and Washington, recalls how Treasury officials working for the Thatcher government in the 1980s designed the EU state aid rules precisely to foster fair competition and to stop other European countries engaging in a subsidy race....​

As I see it, state aid is in full flow. In the sense that they have made so many deals without any tendering process. Doesn't this amount to a subsidy to the companies getting those deals? I certainly expect dividends and remunerations to be significantly funded by the excess contract prices we have agreed.
Maybe Boris sees Apple and thinks if the govt invests in Sinclair or Amstrad as a future post-brexit nest egg... ;-)

"At $2 trillion, Apple's market value is now higher than the GDP of numerous developed countries, including Italy, Brazil, Canada, Russia and and South Korea, to name a few."
 
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vfr400

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I don't see it like that. If you lose all your experienced civil servants, you end up losing your ability to do the very things you want to do.

And it might not only be civil servants you lose:
All these guys are power hungry sociopaths and are a complete waste of space regarding doing their jobs. We'd all be better off if we kicked them all out and leave the bottom level clerks to run the civil service. You should be pleased. I think you're letting your BDS interfere with your rational thought process.
 

vfr400

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Question on https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54064347

I can clearly see why cases/death graphs show weekly cycles. It is not clear to me why there is such a big variation in confirmed cases as a proportion of tests.
Good point, well presented. I was thinking the same as soon as I saw that chart. There's something very fishy about it. It's a stupid thing to graph anyway, and by changing the target group you test, you can make it go up and down as you please. When I thought I had the virus, they wouldn't test me because one of the criteria was symptoms for 4 days or fewer, and I'd had symptoms for 5 days. Mysteriously, when I was admitted to hospital the next day, the first thing they did was a covid-19 test.

The problem is that just about everybody presenting data has an agenda that's nothing to do with getting objective information for the public. Hardly any of the data makes sense. The only sensible data would be how many people catch the virus and become ill, and how many die from it, but nobody presents it like that. Why? Why do some hospitals get paid an incentive for everybody they treat that they say has the virus?

There are three sure facts about the virus. 1. People can catch it, after which a fair proportion become ill and recover, and a small proportion die. 2. Some powerful people are using it as a lever to gain more power and control. 3. Many people are using it as a tool to advance their political agenda, and that includes some people posting here.
 
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vfr400

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That explains the discrepancy. .. your document regarding overall deaths referred to England not the UK.
Many many people will linger on longer than 28 days to die from CV19. .. especially if they are young and strong
Jeez, don't you understand basic maths. There are only 6 people in the UK below the age of 15 recorded as having died from Covid -19 in it's entire history. How long it took them to die is pretty well irrelevant compared with the 47,000 over the age of 65.

574 died below the age of 45. That's less than 1% of the total. If a few were missed because it took 5 weeks for them to die, it wouldn't make any significant difference to the data.
 
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jonathan.agnew

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Good point, well presented. I was thinking the same as soon as I saw that chart. There's something very fishy about it.

The problem is that just about everybody presenting data has a political objective. Hardly any of the data makes sense. The only sensible data would be how many people catch the virus and become ill, and how many die from it, but nobody presents it like that. Why? Why do some hospitals get paid an incentive for everybody they treat that they say has the virus?

There are three sure facts about the virus. 1. People can catch it, after which a fair proportion become ill and recover, and a small proportion die. 2. Some powerful people are using it as a lever to gain more power. 3. Many people are using it as a tool to advance their political agenda, and that includes some people posting here.
Responding to this involves getting quite far into the more esoteric bits of far right conspiracy culture. Which doesn't seem meaningful to me. But the idea that nhs hospitals over report covid cases for money is absurd. I'm a frontline clinician in the nhs and can tell you, **** underresourced mismanaged undercapacity system that it is, that isnt one of its features.
 

RossG

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The trouble with all these fact & figures is that no one really knows the truth about anything, they just make it up as they go along like Bob Dylan and his songs. He'd sing a few words blow on his Harmonica while he had a think then sing another line ... genius !
 

oldgroaner

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Responding to this involves getting quite far into the more esoteric bits of far right conspiracy culture. Which doesn't seem meaningful to me. But the idea that nhs hospitals over report covid cases for money is absurd. I'm a frontline clinician in the nhs and can tell you, **** underresourced mismanaged undercapacity system that it is, that isnt one of its features.
He's making admissions of guilt now
"3. Many people are using it as a tool to advance their political agenda, and that includes some people posting here.

AKA If anyone else posts anything, it's all a conspiracy:rolleyes:
 

oyster

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The speaker appears to have threatened Hancock with having to answer an urgent question every day. For failing to announce the new measures in the HoC despite having been there hardly any time before.
 
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