Brexit, for once some facts.

oyster

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Danidl

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I see this as all part of a massive misdirection campaign. It would have started 2 weeks ago in earnest, claiming that the EU was in disarray and Barnier being sidelined. The next phase is "inviting" multiple EU delegates to one on one meetings in order to divide and conquer. This is a strategy that the EU is well aware of, and why Barnier et al got all the ducks in a row prior to negotiating and has kept the EU parliament informed every step of the way.
 

oyster

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And pretty bad when the government wantonly break the law:

Brexit: Brandon Lewis admits government plan to change withdrawal agreement breaks international law – live
Northern Ireland secretary says plan breaks law but there is precedent; Theresa May accuses Boris Johnson of undermining trust in UK
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/sep/08/coronavirus-uk-update-politics-live-johnson-chairs-cabinet-following-health-chiefs-people-have-relaxed-too-much-warning

And even May puts the boot in - or should that be the kitten heel or FMe shoe?
 
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oyster

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They are useless but I'll say it in very measured, clear terms:

Starmer claims test and trace system 'on verge of collapse'
Sir Keir Starmer has claimed that the test and trace system is “on the verge of collapse”. In an interview with the BBC, the Labour leader said the government should have used the summer to get a “very effective” test and trace system in place. But that did not happen, he claimed.
What we’re now seeing is stories over the past few days that is showing the testing regime is on the verge of collapse.
Heartbreaking stories from people who need a test being told no tests are available. Or the website is crashing, or people are being told to go miles and miles for a test. Nobody can argue that that is good governance.

Starmer said he continued to support the principles of the government’s coronavirus restrictions, saying he did not want to “undermine” messaging during the pandemic.
But he criticised the government’s own messaging as “confused”.

We’re seeing this increase in infection rate, that’s the time the testing regime needs to work and it’s not working and the prime minister needs to take responsibility.
 

vfr400

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Things are pretty bleak in some parts of the USA as weird forces are at work, but here's a light-hearted take of the sort of things that's going on.

Warning: video shows pain and violence, but not enough to stop Youtube from having countless versions of it. Do not watch if you're a snowflake.

 

vfr400

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vfr400

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On average 500,000 people die every year in the UK. That's fairly constant over the last 10 years. That means 38,000 in any 28 day period.
There are approximately 1000 new cases of covid per day, which means 28,000 in the last 28 days.
If you took a random sample of 28,000 people, you'd expect 28,000 x 38,000/66,000,000 to die in that period. That's 16 people from any random sample of 28,000 people would die in any 28 day period.

Covid deaths are now recorded as anybody that dies within the 28 days after being diagnosed, regardless of the actual cause. In the last 28 days 227 people died after being diagnosed with covid. When that number comes down to 16, it's all over. That's roughly one person every 2 days.
 

jonathan.agnew

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Dec 27, 2018
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On average 500,000 people die every year in the UK. That's fairly constant over the last 10 years. That means 38,000 in any 28 day period.
There are approximately 1000 new cases of covid per day, which means 28,000 in the last 28 days.
If you took a random sample of 28,000 people, you'd expect 28,000 x 38,000/66,000,000 to die in that period. That's 16 people from any random sample of 28,000 people would die in any 28 day period.

Covid deaths are now recorded as anybody that dies within the 28 days after being diagnosed, regardless of the actual cause. In the last 28 days 227 people died after being diagnosed with covid. When that number comes down to 16, it's all over. That's roughly one person every 2 days.
ONS doesn't agree with your analysis:
www.ons.gov.uk>bulletins>deaths
but I wouldn't let that bother mevif I were you (who do these experts think they are?). In fact I'd go straight to the nearest pub and give the waitress a big friendly mask free hug. I've got a cheap bottle of champagne riding on a bet with a colleague that boris will be more popular after the next spike and 80k plus avoidable deaths.
 

Danidl

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On average 500,000 people die every year in the UK. That's fairly constant over the last 10 years. That means 38,000 in any 28 day period.
There are approximately 1000 new cases of covid per day, which means 28,000 in the last 28 days.
If you took a random sample of 28,000 people, you'd expect 28,000 x 38,000/66,000,000 to die in that period. That's 16 people from any random sample of 28,000 people would die in any 28 day period.

Covid deaths are now recorded as anybody that dies within the 28 days after being diagnosed, regardless of the actual cause. In the last 28 days 227 people died after being diagnosed with covid. When that number comes down to 16, it's all over. That's roughly one person every 2 days.
The concept of saying anyone dieing within 28 days of a positive CV19 test, made sense in MARCH..it is utter nonsense 6 months later. The cause of death is or should be the pathology record. Michigan had an equally absurd measure .. If you survived 28 days after a positive test you were "cured ".
 
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Danidl

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On average 500,000 people die every year in the UK. That's fairly constant over the last 10 years. That means 38,000 in any 28 day period.
There are approximately 1000 new cases of covid per day, which means 28,000 in the last 28 days.
If you took a random sample of 28,000 people, you'd expect 28,000 x 38,000/66,000,000 to die in that period. That's 16 people from any random sample of 28,000 people would die in any 28 day period.

Covid deaths are now recorded as anybody that dies within the 28 days after being diagnosed, regardless of the actual cause. In the last 28 days 227 people died after being diagnosed with covid. When that number comes down to 16, it's all over. That's roughly one person every 2 days.
My analysis is that about 2.2K people die in the UK each day... 66M/80 per year..
This includes everything from house fires to extreme old age and all sicknesses.
If 1K people contract CV19 per day, this is new and not included in the 2.2K, since there are no year on year statistics yet.
What is the mortality rate?. We need to go to worldometer for that and the CURRENT figure is 4% . Note that with earlier figures it was as bad as 12%, but as the statistics and testing increased, this rate has steadily decreased to a current 4%. Asymptotically heading towards 3%. So the 1000 positive s per day results in 30 to 40 deaths per day within a few months. That is a measurable increase from 2 2K to 2.24K. ,but if the number of infectees stabilises at 10K the rise is to 2.6K deaths per day
 

oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
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My analysis is that about 2.2K people die in the UK each day... 66M/80 per year..
This includes everything from house fires to extreme old age and all sicknesses.
If 1K people contract CV19 per day, this is new and not included in the 2.2K, since there are no year on year statistics yet.
What is the mortality rate?. We need to go to worldometer for that and the CURRENT figure is 4% . Note that with earlier figures it was as bad as 12%, but as the statistics and testing increased, this rate has steadily decreased to a current 4%. Asymptotically heading towards 3%. So the 1000 positive s per day results in 30 to 40 deaths per day within a few months. That is a measurable increase from 2 2K to 2.24K. ,but if the number of infectees stabilises at 10K the rise is to 2.6K deaths per day
I think you are ignoring those who, because they die from Covid-19, will then (obviously) not die of whatever else they otherwise would have died from.

Each person with a life-limiting cancer who instead dies of Covid-19 reduces the number who die of that cancer.
 

oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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I think you are ignoring those who, because they die from Covid-19, will then (obviously) not die of whatever else they otherwise would have died from.

Each person with a life-limiting cancer who instead dies of Covid-19 reduces the number who die of that cancer.
As the Daily Express would say
Lefties and wokes will do anything to skew the figures to embarrass Matt Hancock :oops:
 

Danidl

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Sep 29, 2016
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I think you are ignoring those who, because they die from Covid-19, will then (obviously) not die of whatever else they otherwise would have died from.

Each person with a life-limiting cancer who instead dies of Covid-19 reduces the number who die of that cancer.
That is true to some extent, which is why my 2.2K figure predates CV19. . At this stage the numbers are additive, .. the CV19s are a DELTA on the currently overlying average. But if the numbers start hitting the 10% levels eg. infection rates in excess of 30,000 per day, then CV19 attributed deaths will be noticeably REDUCING the death rates from diabetes, obesity, heart attacks etc. ... since it is remarkably difficult to die twice.
 
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vfr400

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Jun 12, 2011
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ONS doesn't agree with your analysis:
www.ons.gov.uk>bulletins>deaths
but I wouldn't let that bother mevif I were you (who do these experts think they are?). In fact I'd go straight to the nearest pub and give the waitress a big friendly mask free hug. I've got a cheap bottle of champagne riding on a bet with a colleague that boris will be more popular after the next spike and 80k plus avoidable deaths.
My analysis is that about 2.2K people die in the UK each day... 66M/80 per year..
This includes everything from house fires to extreme old age and all sicknesses.
If 1K people contract CV19 per day, this is new and not included in the 2.2K, since there are no year on year statistics yet.
What is the mortality rate?. We need to go to worldometer for that and the CURRENT figure is 4% . Note that with earlier figures it was as bad as 12%, but as the statistics and testing increased, this rate has steadily decreased to a current 4%. Asymptotically heading towards 3%. So the 1000 positive s per day results in 30 to 40 deaths per day within a few months. That is a measurable increase from 2 2K to 2.24K. ,but if the number of infectees stabilises at 10K the rise is to 2.6K deaths per day
All my data is from ONS and other Government source.
 

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