Brexit, for once some facts.

[RossG]

Just had a brief check online and as I thought, no positive evidence to suggest that if you have had covid you then become immune. Lab tests show the virus is neutralized in test tube conditions but in the human body the jury is out. My view is no you are not...hope I'm very wrong.

On another note ... why is the press saying Trump has been seen wearing a mask for the first time, I posted a photo myself on here of him wearing the very same (it appears ) mask.
I wonder if the Chinese have started turning out masks with the Presidential Seal on the side yet ?

 

[flecc]

let's not forget though flecc we don't know anything about immunity yet, it could last days weeks or months who knows ? Does immunity from covid exist at all ?
We're on top of Flu as there is a vaccine but we are not immune from it. The next big step is a vaccine for covid, until then in theory we could be (should we wish) wearing masks for years just as the Chinese do already.

This completely misses the point I am making. I'm saying that the facts about this pandemic indicate that most of us already have full or partial natural immunity, as we do to many other illnesses, so in consequence we lucky ones don't need any new herd immunity or vaccine. Most of use don't catch it at all, or suffer only the very mildest symptoms if we do.

That proposition exactly fits what we know, whereas absolutely none of the proposed science to date does. They say it's highly infectious, but we had Covid-19 for ages before lockdown and yet only a tiny proportion of us caught it, under 0.003%. In Sweden they took no precautions whatsoever in their cities, yet they too only had a tiny proportion catching it, even less than us at present. We also know that there are huge racial differences in infectivity, so there will be wide local variations in the effects of the virus.

Very obviously it isn't at all highly infectious to most of us since we, the herd, just aren't catching it, even in the most likely situations.
.

 

[Woosh]

This completely misses the point I am making. I'm saying that the facts about this pandemic indicate that most of us already have full or partial natural immunity, as we do to many other illnesses, so in consequence we lucky ones don't need any new herd immunity or vaccine. Most of use don't catch it at all, or suffer only the very mildest symptoms if we do.

we already knew that from the statistics of Wuhan epidemic, if we do nothing special, 500,000 or only 1% of us will die, mostly those over 70.
so far, about 50,000 have. The point about policy though is how to avoid killing 450,000 more this winter.

 

[flecc]

we already knew that from the statistics of Wuhan epidemic

No we don't.

We do know there are huge racial differences in the effects of Covid-19, up to 4 to 1. We also know we are not Chinese. We don't eat most of their native foods, or have their living conditions, or their psychology, philosophy and customs.

Anyway Barry thinks we are more in danger from the French.

I'm betting there won't be much of a second phase, especially not in London where we've done most of our our mopping up of the vulnerable already.
.

 

[RossG]

As I've just pointed out we don't know who if anyone is immune only time will tell. Just because many have not caught covid and hopefully never will does not mean they are immune .. that was my point.
I hope to God many are immune but as yet we don't who may be, I certainly don't and neither do you.
We can all see what's happening around the world and draw our own conclusions from it, but until all the facts & figures are finally collated which I believe will be years away we won't know for sure.

 

[Woosh]

we have a pretty good idea how many people are likely to die if they catch CV.
288,953 confirmed cases, 44,798 deaths. The ONS estimated that 4 out of 5 people catching Covid do not get tested, so far, it is estimated that between 1.5 and 2.5 millions of us have had it. That means at least 62.5 millions are still not exposed to it.
I reckon this winter, at least 1.5 millions will come into contact with it, causing another 50,000 deaths.

 

[flecc]

We can all see what's happening around the world and draw our own conclusions from it, but until all the facts & figures are finally collated which I believe will be years away we won't know for sure.

We'll know a whole lot better by next spring if the science is once again shown to be wrong and we don't get a large scale second phase. They won't be able to put that down to imagining the public have been very good with lockdown this time!

Meanwhile the science has proved to be so wrong I'll carry on discounting it and using more rational explanations that match what is actually happening.
.

 

[vfr400]

Just had a brief check online and as I thought, no positive evidence to suggest that if you have had covid you then become immune. Lab tests show the virus is neutralized in test tube conditions but in the human body the jury is out. My view is no you are not...hope I'm very wrong.

On another note ... why is the press saying Trump has been seen wearing a mask for the first time, I posted a photo myself on here of him wearing the very same (it appears ) mask.
I wonder if the Chinese have started turning out masks with the Presidential Seal on the side yet ?

You recover from viruses after your immune system unlocks the code of their arrangement and starts making anti-bodies. Once it has the code, it never forgets, so any time the virus is found in any cells, it will produce antibodies and annihilate it. That's why you can never get the same virus twice, and if it didn't work like that, you'd never be able to recover from any viruses, and you'd be suffering from 100 different colds plus all the childhood diseases you had right now, or you'd be dead.

Some viruses can mutate, especially those that spread quickly, so they might come back with a different arrangement and your immune system needs to again figure out what the arrangement is again before it can make anti-bodies.

Some viruses, like HIV, etc, can hide their presence or their arrangements from the immune system, so they don't get dealt with, but Covid 19 isn't one of them.

So, you can only get Covid 19 once. If you got it again, it would be Covid 20, Covid 21 or something like that, and even then, it's not very likely.

Trump was wearing a mask because he was visiting the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where there were some ill people with compromised immune systems. The mask was to prevent him from infecting them - no conspiracy there. That's why surgeons have always worn masks. It's to stop them from spitting into your cut open body, not to stop them catching anything from you.

 

[flecc]

I reckon this winter, at least 1.5 millions will come into contact with it, causing another 50,000 deaths.

So your forecast, about 1 in 1320 of the population, is rather worse than what we've experienced so far, commensurate with our considerable and expanding easing of lockdown.

I'm confident it won't be that high and very confident that it will be far lower in London. If I'm right it will show that there is considerable and widespread full and partial immunity in our population for whom locking down is irrelevant.
.

 

[vfr400]

we have a pretty good idea how many people are likely to die if they catch CV.
288,953 confirmed cases, 44,798 deaths. The ONS estimated that 4 out of 5 people catching Covid do not get tested, so far, it is estimated that between 1.5 and 2.5 millions of us have had it. That means at least 62.5 millions are still not exposed to it.
I reckon this winter, at least 1.5 millions will come into contact with it, causing another 50,000 deaths.

Good maths, but bad logic. Your assumption is that everything will stay the same, but it doesn't work like that.

1. There are already many records of the virus mutations. Some say it is becoming more harmless. On the other other hand, though not likely, it could mutate into a deadly and extremely infections version.

2. The bulk of people wiped out by Covid 19 have been old and frail people. They're gone now, leaving a more robust population.

3. A lot of the ignorance and negligence that caused all those deaths is more under control now.

4. The general population is much more alert about how to avoid catching it and how to deal with themselves or other people that get it.

In summary, If Covid 20 arrived today and was equally infections and dangerous as Covid 19, it wouldn't kill nearly as many people.

 

[Wicky]

This completely misses the point I am making. I'm saying that the facts about this pandemic indicate that most of us already have full or partial natural immunity, as we do to many other illnesses, so in consequence we lucky ones don't need any new herd immunity or vaccine. Most of use don't catch it at all, or suffer only the very mildest symptoms if we do.

That proposition exactly fits what we know, whereas absolutely none of the proposed science to date does. They say it's highly infectious, but we had Covid-19 for ages before lockdown and yet only a tiny proportion of us caught it, under 0.003%. In Sweden they took no precautions whatsoever in their cities, yet they too only had a tiny proportion catching it, even less than us at present. We also know that there are huge racial differences in infectivity, so there will be wide local variations in the effects of the virus.

Very obviously it isn't at all highly infectious to most of us since we, the herd, just aren't catching it, even in the most likely situations.
.

When you say immunity are you claiming people can't catch it or that folk can be asymptomatic (yet still capable of spreading it) ?

"In Sweden they took no precautions whatsoever in their cities, yet they too only had a tiny proportion catching it,"

• 26 June 2020 > According to WHO data, EU member state Sweden has seen 155 infections for every 100,000 inhabitants in the past 14 days, far higher than anywhere else in the organisation's defined Europe region, other than Armenia.

It's not true they didn't do anything whatsoever - they went into lockdown lite. And it hit care homes heavily with as three-fourths of its deaths occurring among nursing home residents or those receiving home care.

The ban of public gatherings with more than 500 people, later revised down to 50, led to concerts and other events being cancelled or postponed.

Public transport has been cut / usage is down and secondary schools & uni have used distcnce learning.

Not sure why you hold Sweden as an example to follow - New Zealand maybe

How did New Zealand become Covid-19 free?

What has been the strategy behind New Zealand's Covid-19 success?

www.bbc.co.uk

> It locked down early and aimed for elimination

On 8 June, Ms Ardern announced that with no new community transmissions in 17 days and all patients fully recovered, "we are confident we have eliminated transmission of the virus in New Zealand for now".

The lockdown was lifted and everyday life is now almost entirely back to normal, with some social distancing. But the borders remain closed to foreigners for now, with no indication of when they will reopen - and officials say complacency could be disastrous.

The risks posed by borders became clear just over a week after Ms Ardern's announcement, when two women who had recently arrived home from the UK tested positive.

 

[Danidl]

This completely misses the point I am making. I'm saying that the facts about this pandemic indicate that most of us already have full or partial natural immunity, as we do to many other illnesses, so in consequence we lucky ones don't need any new herd immunity or vaccine. Most of use don't catch it at all, or suffer only the very mildest symptoms if we do.

That proposition exactly fits what we know, whereas absolutely none of the proposed science to date does. They say it's highly infectious, but we had Covid-19 for ages before lockdown and yet only a tiny proportion of us caught it, under 0.003%. In Sweden they took no precautions whatsoever in their cities, yet they too only had a tiny proportion catching it, even less than us at present. We also know that there are huge racial differences in infectivity, so there will be wide local variations in the effects of the virus.

Very obviously it isn't at all highly infectious to most of us since we, the herd, just aren't catching it, even in the most likely situations.
.

I would wish to agree with you ,but the evidence is not there. WHO have accepted that aerosol transmission is possible and there is evidence it has occurred, however their view is that formite transmission from contaminated surfaces predominates as does near field inhalation of droplets.

 

[Nev]

This is not good news.

Immunity to Covid-19 could be lost in months, UK study suggests

Exclusive: King’s College London team found steep drops in antibody levels three months after infection

www.theguardian.com

 

[flecc]

When you say immunity are you claiming people can't catch it

Yes, either can't catch it or who can only suffer vestigial symptoms.

"In Sweden they took no precautions whatsoever in their cities, yet they too only had a tiny proportion catching it,"

• 26 June 2020 > According to WHO data, EU member state Sweden has seen 155 infections for every 100,000 inhabitants in the past 14 days, far higher than anywhere else in the organisation's defined Europe region, other than Armenia.

That's 14 days in June so completely irrelevant. Their overall figures are lower than ours and we had our high figures long before them.

It's not true they didn't do anything whatsoever - they went into lockdown lite.

In lockdown terms, it was a joke. To all intents and purposes it gave no protection. That's why they belatedly changed it later.

You amuse me, like so many as soon as anything positive is posted you'll clutch at anything to try to prove Covid-19 is far worse than it really is. A lot less panic and a lot more reflection could have save us a fortune and a seriously damaged future, but that's difficult f or a government to do when there's still so much hysteria about.
.

 

[flecc]

I would wish to agree with you ,but the evidence is not there. WHO have accepted that aerosol transmission is possible and there is evidence it has occurred, however their view is that formite transmission from contaminated surfaces predominates as does near field inhalation of droplets.

In the case of Britain and many other countries, they aren't thinking again. They really ought to get out into the real world more. Almost a third of our households are single person, you can spot them easily since they predominantly shop using a supermarket basket rather than a trolley. That's also true of others at times when they are only collecting a smaller shop. That's the baskets in stacks that NEVER have their handles disinfected and constantly cycle through the stacks and multiple hands throughout up to 12 hours a day, seven days a week.

Yet we are told people who live alone are far less liable to catch Covid-19 !
.

 

[flecc]

This is not good news.

Immunity to Covid-19 could be lost in months, UK study suggests

Exclusive: King’s College London team found steep drops in antibody levels three months after infection

www.theguardian.com

With prior existence the antibodies are likely to return almost instantly in any attempt at re-infection. That's the good news.
.

 

[RossG]

Covid-19 has already started to mutate, it did so from the off. Supermarket baskets ... you can't touch one in my neck of the woods without it being sanitized, probably why very few have contracted covid round here. Certainly not because they are immune because we don't know about immunity yet.

 

[oyster]

You recover from viruses after your immune system unlocks the code of their arrangement and starts making anti-bodies. Once it has the code, it never forgets, so any time the virus is found in any cells, it will produce antibodies and annihilate it. That's why you can never get the same virus twice, and if it didn't work like that, you'd never be able to recover from any viruses, and you'd be suffering from 100 different colds plus all the childhood diseases you had right now, or you'd be dead.

Some viruses can mutate, especially those that spread quickly, so they might come back with a different arrangement and your immune system needs to again figure out what the arrangement is again before it can make anti-bodies.

Some viruses, like HIV, etc, can hide their presence or their arrangements from the immune system, so they don't get dealt with, but Covid 19 isn't one of them.

So, you can only get Covid 19 once. If you got it again, it would be Covid 20, Covid 21 or something like that, and even then, it's not very likely.

Trump was wearing a mask because he was visiting the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where there were some ill people with compromised immune systems. The mask was to prevent him from infecting them - no conspiracy there. That's why surgeons have always worn masks. It's to stop them from spitting into your cut open body, not to stop them catching anything from you.

Maybe. Maybe not...

Immunity to Covid-19 could be lost in months, UK study suggests

Exclusive: King’s College London team found steep drops in patients’ antibody levels three months after infection

People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people year after year, like common colds.

In the first longitudinal study of its kind, scientists analysed the immune response of more than 90 patients and healthcare workers at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS foundation trust and found levels of antibodies that can destroy the virus peaked about three weeks after the onset of symptoms then swiftly declined.

Blood tests revealed that while 60% of people marshalled a “potent” antibody response at the height of their battle with the virus, only 17% retained the same potency three months later. Antibody levels fell as much as 23-fold over the period. In some cases, they became undetectable.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests

Of course, what we really don't know - at all - is how someone with massively reduced antibodies will react to subsequent re-infection.

 

[Danidl]

we have a pretty good idea how many people are likely to die if they catch CV.
288,953 confirmed cases, 44,798 deaths. The ONS estimated that 4 out of 5 people catching Covid do not get tested, so far, it is estimated that between 1.5 and 2.5 millions of us have had it. That means at least 62.5 millions are still not exposed to it.
I reckon this winter, at least 1.5 millions will come into contact with it, causing another 50,000 deaths.

there is a huge difference between an assumption and a measured value. The only facts are that X have been tested positive. Y have recovered, and Z have died. Even Y is problematic as definitions of recovered are not agreed. Any speculation that B have had the diesease and recovered without any intervention because a tiny sample C has been taken and this shows antibodies ..is eeh speculation. The Key numbers are X= 13M, Z= 0.6M Y= 7M. That gives a current mortality rate of 4.6% or 8.5% depending on your criteria.
When populations are tested for infection, and 90% of the samples prove negative, one suspects one is getting into controlling the infection. If the figure , as it is in many USA states they are finding that every second person tested has CV19, ... 40%, it is spiralling out of control.
As of yet it does not appear to have entered the food chain, although mink in holland did contract it from a contaminated farm worker . But with millions of infections, and poor hospital hygiene , that is just a question of time.
Even more worrying is that even if the body controls a minor infection, it may not trigger the intense immune response to create any immunity. There may therefore be a number of people who have tested positive for antibodies, are now being coded as part of sample C did not feel particularly ill , and may have no worthwhile immunity.

 

[RossG]

I came down with something nasty early on in the year, whether it was covid or not who knows but I do know it wasn't fun. That could mean I have antibodies or it might not, it could mean I "had" antibodies or may not have done.
It could mean I may be immune or I may not be, it could mean I am immune to that particular mutation but not another, it could mean ........ ......... get my drift.