Brexit, for once some facts.

Danidl

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Sep 29, 2016
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No point now the horse has bolted and our "r" is is so low at an accepted "6" and still reducing. And with Londoners behaviours I can't see any increase in mask use, as this account shows:

A Day in London Lives

I've had to put up with many silly things said about London from people living far away who know nothing about it, and this was capped by a Professor in WarwickUniversity making this nonsensical claim, "Londoners have made a brilliant effort in adhering to lock-down advice, and bringing the infection under control." which is the reverse of the truth on both aspects.

So I thought I'd place on record just one day in my outside home life and those I interacted with, on Wednesday 27th May to give an idea of the reality.

It started with my leaving home to get my cars tyres rotated, a simple front and rear swap each side. Walking up to my garage, M------, a neighbour and friend called out to me from his driving seat, n/s door open and his girlfriend who I know standing by it (At this stage it's best that I explain that I long ago gave up on strictest distancing since so many don't, only now doing it when others show the same intention). They don't, M------ and I laughingly agreed some while ago that we weren't going to get the virus, so I joined his girlfriend side by side, greeting each other, and close to the cab and M------ so I could hear him over his diesel ticking over. He wanted some details of a service I used so I promised to pop them into his home later.

M------ incidentally runs a painting and decorating business and has never shut down, he and his two staff with three vehicles continuing to work in the homes and businesses of others throughout the lockdown, clearly not practising separation.

Then it was car out and drive to a local tyre service. This isn't one of the big boys, it's a cash only, no cards cheap business selling part used tyres as well as new at very low prices, giving a valuable service on a large council estate where there's many poor people. The guy who runs it employs a few from the estate on a random friendly basis, and when I got there he was out on a job and there was someone I hadn't seen before holding the fort.

An obvious ex con, he seemed to have no concept of social distancing, so I worked with him on the jacking and wheel changes, swapping the jacks, wheels and brace and wheel nut key between us, no sterilisation of these before handling of course. During that a couple of young men who knew the business joined us, hanging around. Then another customer turned up with a punctured spare so one of the young men did that repair, five of us milling around in limited space with no regard to distancing from anyone.

My job done I asked how much, to which he said "How much would he normally charge?" That's the sort of business it is, prices mutually agreed, so I said "A tenner" but gave him a twenty saying, "that will cover you ok" which earned a smile.

Back home I wrote out the details M------ wanted, went out for the second time and popped them though his letter box, another transmission path.

After lunch I went out the third time for a walk in the local reserve, meeting my upstairs neighbour S---- outside as he got back from work. He's a postal worker so finishes by the start of the afternoon and he told me how fed up he'd got with the indoor work he'd volunteered for, wishing he'd stayed out on the road. He added something I'd heard many times here, that he thought the whole corona issue had been greatly exaggerated. Needless to say he wasn't separating by two metres.

Then it was the walk up the long narrow fenced path to the reserve, meeting two families forced to pass very close. The woodlands weren't very crowded, some walkers separating, others not, but the largest meadow I entered was busy, footballs being kicked around by some groups and a number of sunbathers. On and around a bench seat at one corner were a large number of young children playing, with adults from probably three families all mixing.

After taking some photos elsewhere in the reserve I headed for home and on one path I saw a probably Eastern European woman approaching pushing a pram and three other young children with her, blocking the whole path. Suddenly the youngest, a little boy of probably between two and three, laid down on the ground in front of me and started eating the earth! It's the sort of thing babies sometimes do, but startling from someone his age. I laughed and clearly embarassed his mother did too, picking him up and smacking him. Again this was five of us milling around in a small space.

Finally at 7.45pm I went out for the fourth time for the usual late Wednesday shop at my supermarket, getting there at 8, they close at 9. I first started that evening custom to avoid having to endure the separation queues in the day. Originally it was quiet then, but many more have followed my example since so although no queue, it was very busy inside with the usual lack of separation.

There you have it, a truthful account of a typical day in my life and that of sample other Londoners over recent weeks that I'd carefully noted with a view to a post like this.

Remember that Warwick Professor's statement,

"Londoners have made a brilliant effort in adhering to lock-down advice, and bringing the infection under control."

Adding the fact that as the ONS reports, London has suffered up to double the infection and death rates of the rest of the country from early in this episode, and hopefully you'll realise what bunkum that Professor said. London, partly through circumstances and partly through lack of co-operation has performed badly with separation, suffered the consequences early but reaping some benefit now by leading the country with a low "r".
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I don't for a moment doubt the veracity of your observations.
A few points flecc..the first is that the Warwick professor was serving up Plamais..as we say in Ireland , a type of unearned, unsupportive praise, which is cheap to give and difficult to refute . I could see that the minute I read his article. He was saving his powder for the bigger prize, .. criticism of the model. Of course coming from another University, he would critique their work.. .But there was , also a critical review of the Cambridge model by a Prof Shiela Bird, who had previously been a member of the Cambridge group.

The second being that none of your interactions were high risk. A few blokes who had beens working together on and off are not very risky.

The third is that all it takes is for one of those interactions to go awry and it goes bad quickly.

Finally I think you misunderstand the R parameter. ..If is not a cause, but an effect. One measures the effects and then infers that the R for ones choice of model had a specific value .
 

Woosh

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THE REASON FOR THE LOWER "r" IN LONDON NOW IS SIMPLY THAT WE TOOK A FAR HIGHER HIT IN THE FIRST PLACE DUE TO OUR LOCKDOWN INADEQUACIES.
only for a limited time when the initial high infection rate saw a quick decline in early May.
After two weeks of lockdown, London is becoming like other cities.
The number of COVID deaths in London is still very much proportional to its share of population (12%).
My contention is: '24' new cases a day for London is not believable at the moment and London may never get there this year and next.
It's up to you to decide what to believe.
 

RossG

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2019
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Around here it would be just you. The reason you feel that way is because you've been secluding yourself.

I don't because I've been going out all the time and as often as I like, as has almost everyone else around here. Only a tiny minority use a mask and they are clearly the few who do show any embarrassment by their behaviour.
.
It's horses for courses as always flecc. Went to a large supermarket today and found very strict distancing rules in place, security everywhere and everyone behaving as they should. Walking to the store people swerved as I did and gave and received a smile. I was delighted to bump into a young lady who lives in my apartments and who does part time care work, very good news that her care home is and always has been covid free. Of course you could put that down to all sorts of things and I shall be asking a lot of questions later of a great many people as to how they handled this crisis but my opinion is lockdown was the key to that.
There's also the point that has not been mentioned here much is who lives alone and who has a partner and a family.
In my case I do have a partner with several health problems and she is all I care about so risks are not taken.... period. Personally I don't care who does what because I shall carry on wearing protection gear as will my partner, I'm quite happy to do that and so is she.
To be frank with you flecc I think it's fairly obvious that Londoners don't give a toss not only about themselves but others, I should say I know London very well I lived there for years and know it's people that's why I now live on the coast where people do care. We have some shops here where if you walked in without a mask you would get your arse kicked and quite rightly too, we care.

Another story illustrating my view.....we ordered a new sofa a while back, we told the delivery people to leave it in the corridor but they refused to even enter the building ! Frankly I don't blame them so at my suggestion they will deliver when distancing rules allow. A phone call to the retailers and a £100 cheque by way of recompense = sorted ;)
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
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Johnson said:

This will allow people to see both parents at once or both grandparents at once, he adds.

(Allowing that this might be a transciption error, the usual number of direct biological grand-parents is four - which the word "both" does not properly cover. Though given his facilty with numbers that might be generous.)

How many people would need to be in a garden for Johnson's children to see all their grand-parents at once?
 
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flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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only for a limited time when the initial high infection rate saw a quick decline in early May.
After two weeks of lockdown, London is becoming like other cities.
The number of COVID deaths in London is still very much proportional to its share of population (12%).
And much of that 12% in the early stages, as you acknowledge.

Ergo it is now much lower, not like other cities at present.
.
 

oyster

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How many times have I clapped my hand to my head and (silently) screamed? Most often thinking, this must not be true. They can't both have made this big a mistake and managed not to fix it. Can they?

Coronavirus testing hit by struggle to match results with NHS records

Problem affects up to 350,000 samples from drive-through centres in England and Scotland


We have seen many stories of people not getting results in a week or more. But surely that is only a handful of extreme cases... Isn't it?
 

Barry Shittpeas

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Jan 1, 2020
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I think I’ve just witnessed state censorship and silencing of intellectuals. I would have thought that a Chief Medical Officer and a Chief Scientific Advisor might have had an opinion on a Medical and Scientific matter. After all, we are following the science aren’t we? Johnson seems to think otherwise.

I think it was the most disgusting and contemptuous government press conference I’ve ever see.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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The second being that none of your interactions were high risk.
My point was not to comment on relative risks. It was just dismissing the professor's nonsensical claim of Londoners excellent behaviour.

Finally I think you misunderstand the R parameter. ..If is not a cause, but an effect.
No I don't, my post clearly shows the opposite. I've not claimed "r" as a cause but have stated it is the effect of the early high infection rate reducing the later infection rate, resulting in a lower "r" subsequently.
.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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I would have thought that a Chief Medical Officer and a Chief Scientific Advisor might have had an opinion on a Medical and Scientific matter.
It was a legal issue, made a solely political matter from the outset, simply a handy opportunity to try to get rid of a hated political figure.

The almost entirely mythical health issues were simply the icing on the attackers cake, to much later reinforce their arguments.

They've lost.

Hopefully they'll use more sensible and honest methods next time, since I don't like Cummings either.
.
 
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oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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There are lies, Damned lies
And of course the Daily Telegraph
1.38pm - 2 mins after the
@Telegraph
story went online. 2nd image taken at 2.51pm





It's truly pathetic how low Conservatives will go for a Coward that legged it from 10 Downing street when he heard Boris had the infection
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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It's horses for courses as always flecc. Went to a large supermarket today and found very strict distancing rules in place, security everywhere and everyone behaving as they should. Walking to the store people swerved as I did and gave and received a smile. I was delighted to bump into a young lady who lives in my apartments and who does part time care work, very good news that her care home is and always has been covid free. Of course you could put that down to all sorts of things and I shall be asking a lot of questions later of a great many people as to how they handled this crisis but my opinion is lockdown was the key to that.
There's also the point that has not been mentioned here much is who lives alone and who has a partner and a family.
In my case I do have a partner with several health problems and she is all I care about so risks are not taken.... period. Personally I don't care who does what because I shall carry on wearing protection gear as will my partner, I'm quite happy to do that and so is she.
To be frank with you flecc I think it's fairly obvious that Londoners don't give a toss not only about themselves but others, I should say I know London very well I lived there for years and know it's people that's why I now live on the coast where people do care. We have some shops here where if you walked in without a mask you would get your arse kicked and quite rightly too, we care.

Another story illustrating my view.....we ordered a new sofa a while back, we told the delivery people to leave it in the corridor but they refused to even enter the building ! Frankly I don't blame them so at my suggestion they will deliver when distancing rules allow. A phone call to the retailers and a £100 cheque by way of recompense = sorted ;)
Within my immediate family ..as in myself ,wife our family and our respective brothers and sisters. Using Age over 70, diabetes, cancers , heart complaints, serious asthma, Cystic fibrosis, ..I count 8 or 9 serious health risks .. some with multiples . So no we are not taking risks ..Well actually I took one yesterday, I cycled 10km away, and had a coffee at a garden centre.. the tables were each about 4 metres apart in the open, yet I was reluctant to sit and drank my cappuccino standing.. so as to ensure no contact...
 
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Woosh

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And much of that 12% in the early stages, as you acknowledge.

Ergo it is now much lower, not like other cities at present.
.
I wish you were right because that means I can go back to London again but I don't believe it's true.
London has become like other cities after a few weeks into the lockdown.
If you say 20% of Londoners has been infected, I may believe you.
It has not attained the 80% herd immunity. Still a long way from it.
I don't think the British people will ever accept the herd immunity strategy.
 

RossG

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2019
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My simple rule is that I wear a mask when near other people, for their sake as much as mine. Not wearing one "could" be construed as selfish and non caring and although I look on myself as a bit of an idiot at times, I'm not a selfish idiot.
 

wheeler

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jun 4, 2016
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There are lies, Damned lies
And of course the Daily Telegraph
1.38pm - 2 mins after the
@Telegraph
story went online. 2nd image taken at 2.51pm





It's truly pathetic how low Conservatives will go for a Coward that legged it from 10 Downing street when he heard Boris had the infection
Never mind the lockdown regulations, by his own admission he contravened the Road Traffic Act by failing to ensure that his eyesight met the requirements before driving the family for a game of crash test dummies.
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
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My simple rule is that I wear a mask when near other people, for their sake as much as mine. Not wearing one "could" be construed as selfish and non caring and although I look on myself as a bit of an idiot at times, I'm not a selfish idiot.
I don't give a stuff what a mask looks like. (Mine is currently black with white polka dots).

I agree that it is very largely for the sake of everyone else. I hope (but don't expect) my wearing one will encourage others to do so - or at least help any who are feeling embarrassed or feeling silly to appreciate that there is no issue.
 

RossG

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2019
1,628
1,646
I think I’ve just witnessed state censorship and silencing of intellectuals. I would have thought that a Chief Medical Officer and a Chief Scientific Advisor might have had an opinion on a Medical and Scientific matter. After all, we are following the science aren’t we? Johnson seems to think otherwise.

I think it was the most disgusting and contemptuous government press conference I’ve ever see.
I liked the answer BJ gave when the two stooges were questioned on Cummingsgate, " well you two can't answer questions on political matters, I can UNFORTUNATELY " clearly a man who loves his job.
 

Wicky

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Feb 12, 2014
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www.jhepburn.co.uk


The surprising 300-mile round trip was confirmed live on air as part of an online ‘fireside chat’ between Johnson and Buckingham's vice-chancellor, the prime ministerial biographer Anthony Seldon, on Tuesday evening.
 
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