Brexit, for once some facts.

[flecc]

flecc..you really should get out more ! People have been doing that all over the UK since day one

I don't doubt it for cities, but I don't live all over the UK so I only post what I know to be factually true for my city and immediate surroundings.

If others posting are to be believed, people certainly don't behave like Londoners in smaller size locations where they appear to be paragons of lockdown virtue. Even yourself by your own admission!
.

 

[Wicky]

Interesting analysis of Cummings' statement - seems like it was drafted for him by legal bods. Wonder if the delay for his appearance was last minute getting the story right.

 

[flecc]

I am pleased that you do not support that article.
So why should you get angry when I said the article may be fake news?

Because your whole approach was, and still is dismissive of everything I've been saying about the fact of London's lower "r".

All the evidence is that it's lower than the rest of the country now for easily understandable reasons, but you seem to stoop to anything to try to say it isn't, including suggesting Fake News.

Please take off the lockdown blinkers and accept that taking a very large hit early also gets the "r"down, and very much faster than lockdown ever can. That's sound science too, albeit unfashionable.

Ultimately there may be no gain by that other approach, there may even be a loss in terms of lives, though I doubt it. But there will have been a definite very large gain in terms of quality of life and health of the economy due to the greater freedom and earnings due to less or even no lockdown.
.

 

[RossG]

I don't doubt it for cities, but I don't live all over the UK so I only post what I know to be factually true for my city and immediate surroundings.

If others posting are to be believed, people certainly don't behave like Londoners in smaller size locations where they appear to be paragons of lockdown virtue. Even yourself by your own admission!
.

Well of course I am a paragon of lockdown virtue ! Like many others I missed out on seeing my friends, relatives umpteen grandchildren and mine & my partners birthday bashes, first trip to a big store today since the beginning of March. All that because I wanted to protect not only myself but my partner as well as the rest of society, of course if you see it differently......well. (you're not a communist are you flecc )

 

[Woosh]

Because your whole approach was, and still is dismissive of everything I've been saying about the fact of London's lower "r".

because it's unlikely.
I have pointed out for weeks that UK government claim of R (should really be called Re) is too low to be credible. It should be around 0.9.
Most people cannot calculate R nor collect data to spot issues with government claims.
Re changes with mitigation measures, therein lies the rub.
If Re is 0.9, it's unwise to lift lockdown.
Today, government CSO Vallance said it's between 0.7-0.9. Nearer to the truth but not quite.
If government were to be believable, they should have used antibodies test statistics instead of a complex notional factor like rate of infection.

from wikipedia:

Effective reproduction number
In reality, varying proportions of the population are immune to any given disease at any given time. To account for this, the effective reproduction number

is used, also written as

, or the average number of new infections caused by a single infected individual at time t in the partially susceptible population. It can be found by multiplying

by the fraction S of the population that is susceptible. When the fraction of the population that is immune increases so much that

drops below 1, "herd immunity" has been achieved and the number of cases occurring in the population will gradually decrease to zero

 

[flecc]

you're not a communist are you flecc

No, I've a lifelong record of voting right and left according to need and circumstances. Generally though:

Labour for London mayor.

Changeable for GLC.

Tory for borough council.

Changeable for parliament though Labour for a few years now.
.

 

[flecc]

I have pointed out for weeks that UK government claim of R (should really be called Re) is too low to be credible. It should be around 0.9.

If government were to be believable, they should have used antibodies test statistics instead of a complex notional factor like rate of infection.

I agree with you on the point 9 nationally but I believe it's about 0.6 in London due to the early large hit we took, recently reducing those available to be readily infected. That's how all our extra deaths count, leaving us below the rest of the country in Re terms, only for the time being of course.

As for the wisdom of loosening lockdown, we aren't concerned here since we've always had a very loose lockdown anyway, hence in part the large hit we took.

For example my life now is exactly the same as before Covid. I initially tried some changes like queuing for supplies and changing routes, but with loss and no perceivable gain I soon dropped them and carried on as before with all aspects of my life. I think from observation half here have done the same.

It appears from mask wearing and proximity avoidance that only a quarter at most are at all serious about anti Covid measures, about the same proportion paying lip service, with over half of us not really bothered.

I wish the government luck with Testing, Tracking and Tracing, but don't think they have a hope in hell in London.
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[oyster]

Interesting analysis of Cummings' statement - seems like it was drafted for him by legal bods. Wonder if the delay for his appearance was last minute getting the story right.

A far better and more detailed analysis than I could achieve! But I'll add, the start point is odd. Out of the blue, Johnson has a positive test.

It is not the case that there had not been suspicions before that test came back - even the time between the test being adminstered and the result would have been full of anticipation. Yet, it would appear, Cummings only gave it any thought at all after the postive test was returned.

 

[Danidl]

Bizarrely, in England you are supposed to be careful when handing out the barbecued food. In Scotland you are encouraged to each (household) bring your own food, crockery, cutlery.

If based on "the science", why such a difference?

And what I am really looking forward to - McD opening everywhere for drive through between Tuesday and Thursday. I sincerely hope that we don't see multi-hour queues as we have no other way to drive out except that road.

Last week, Ireland moved to phase1 opening.. This included drive through restaurants . So the local KFC opened as did a drive through Starbucks .. in one point I was sorry fir tgat Starbucks as I think it originally opened 1st March 2020, and was forced to close 10 days later. Anyway both have opened last Sunday. While I can understand a 20 minutes wait for the chicken bucket (well sort of), the idea of queing an hour for a coffee really blows my mind. The que for Starbucks was about 100 cars long!.

 

[Danidl]

A far better and more detailed analysis than I could achieve! But I'll add, the start point is odd. Out of the blue, Johnson has a positive test.

It is not the case that there had not been suspicions before that test came back - even the time between the test being adminstered and the result would have been full of anticipation. Yet, it would appear, Cummings only gave it any thought at all after the postive test was returned.

I listened to a reasonable amount of this ,and it was pedantic . Cummings would have wanted to have been a complete eejit Not to have had legal assistance in drafting this statement. He knows it has to be watertight because he knows he is not popular.

 

[Woosh]

@ flecc

the death rate that the Cambridge model is based on is not the best indicator of Covid 'R'. There was a lot to learn how to treat Covid, as death numbers were high at the beginning until the NHS found out that respirators are not the best treatment. Since, more people survived.
If you offset the death figures by the effectiveness of treatment, London will be similar to other large cities.

The testing statistics are better indicators, both antigens and antibodies tests are.

Coronavirus: R number 'very similar' across UK

Scientists say there are no significant regional differences in coronavirus rates across the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[daveboy]

At least half my friends are convinced they have had the virus already, especially since loss of smell and taste was added to the list. None of them have ever been tested,
They are all eager to have the anti-body test.

 

[oyster]

I listened to a reasonable amount of this ,and it was pedantic . Cummings would have wanted to have been a complete eejit Not to have had legal assistance in drafting this statement. He knows it has to be watertight because he knows he is not popular.

It was presented as if that statement was what Cummings said to Johnson. I have my doubts that Cummings did present it to Johnson in that form. (Can you imagine Johnson listening for that long?)

I wonder which lawyers did it? Did we pay for it?

 

[oyster]

At least half my friends are convinced they have had the virus already, especially since loss of smell and taste was added to the list. None of them have ever been tested,
They are all eager to have the anti-body test.

I am intrigued by the mismatch between claims of individuals and the number we are told have had it. I have previously said that I am aware of several people who are convinced they had it in January.

I am suspicious that there are issues/reasons which are not yet properly teased out, identified and understood.

 

[Woosh]

At least half my friends are convinced they have had the virus already, especially since loss of smell and taste was added to the list. None of them have ever been tested,
They are all eager to have the anti-body test.

we all need to be tested.
the symptoms are common well before Covid though.

 

[Woosh]

I am intrigued by the mismatch between claims of individuals and the number we are told have had it. I have previously said that I am aware of several people who are convinced they had it in January.

I am suspicious that there are issues/reasons which are not yet properly teased out, identified and understood.

I don't think that many of us have had it.
the ONS did and still run their antibodies tests and come up with 6% of us having been infected.
I think less than that.

 

[oldgroaner]

Nick Ferrari explains the true cost of coronavirus on the economy
oldgroaner @oldgroaner

The true cost of coronavirus on the economy?
That's easy to answer 38,000 less contributors to it due to criminal negligence on the part of the Conservative government, and now they want you to go back to work to allow more to die to save it from their mistakes

 

[oyster]

I don't think that many of us have had it.
the ONS did and still run their antibodies tests and come up with 6% of us having been infected.
I think less than that.

In one case, the woman thinks she had it in January. She was in physical contact with her father, husband, grown-up children (not sure if they have offspring), people in everyday life, she just carried on - to the best of her ability while feeling awful - as usual.

I know she posted about it at the time when she just thought it was some particularly nasty flu-like issue.

Seems very likely that she passed it on and, because she seems to have quite a bit of social life, possibly to quite a few others.

Have to say, it would be very interesting had we been able to antibody test then and throughout. The rate of growth of those with antibodies might have been helpful.

 

[oldgroaner]

From Brexit Shambles on Twitter

1. Dominic Cummings, Mary Wakefield and Cedd Cummings had no symptoms of Covid-19.
2. During the Covid-19 restrictions, Dominic Cummings took the decision to drive them 260 miles to Durham.
3. There's no evidence any of them ever had Covid-19.
4. When did our police become mugs?

 

[Danidl]

From Brexit Shambles on Twitter

1. Dominic Cummings, Mary Wakefield and Cedd Cummings had no symptoms of Covid-19.
2. During the Covid-19 restrictions, Dominic Cummings took the decision to drive them 260 miles to Durham.
3. There's no evidence any of them ever had Covid-19.
4. When did our police become mugs?

You miss the point, all he had have is make the claim that he was convinced that his wife and or child was getting ill ,whether CV or any other acute illness, he was legal. He was not in law required to supply doctors certs .
Sloppy law of course ,