Brexit, for once some facts.

oldgroaner

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Which is pretty much what has happened throughout.

The gov.uk websites are similarly fixated on England to the near-absolute exclusion of anywhere else.

And still no sign-language. Which at least Wales and Scotland have provided throughout.
And there was me thinking all the hand waving he does was sign language!
 

oldgroaner

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Were you listening to Johnson? We are going to have hundreds of thousands of tests every day. Even when covid-19 is over...
I think he was talking about when the results are likely to come back from the ones sent to the USA
 
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sjpt

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Johnson appears to have given carte blanche for anyone in England to travel to their second homes, to the Brecon Beacons, etc. If you can travel to exercise, without limit, what else can it mean?
No, they can go to the peaks, lakes, Cornwall etc, but the Welsh (probably sensibly) won't allow them to go to the Brecon Beacons.

Maybe they should set up testing centres at all the border crossings? Carter Bar seems a good place for the first one.
 

wheeler

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No, they can go to the peaks, lakes, Cornwall etc, but the Welsh (probably sensibly) won't allow them to go to the Brecon Beacons.

Maybe they should set up testing centres at all the border crossings? Carter Bar seems a good place for the first one.
They'd be better to set it up in the southbound layby, as restrictions ease the northbound will become busy again with people taking selfies at the Welcome to Scotland sign. I've never seen them do the same at the Welcome to England sign. ;) ;)
 

Nev

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Spiegelhalter on Marr's show this morning: risk of dying of COVID increases with your age, it doubles every 7 years.
Yes, I watched him this morning and at first I was quite concerned about this statement but on thinking about it a bit more its not as frightening as it first sounds. The reason is although the risk is doubling with every seven years of age it starts off from a very small number (very close to but not quite zero) so even when it doubles the risk is still extremely small.

Here are the stats he provided in the interview they are for England and Wales only, he did not provide any numbers for Scotland and N.I. They show clearly what I mean about this doubling statement not being as frightening as it would first appear.

There are 10 million under 15s in England and Wales, the total number of deaths from Covid in this category is just 2. So the risk of dying from the virus for the under 15s is virtually zero (1 in 5 million).

He went on to say there are 17 million under 25s, and the total number of Covid deaths for this age group in just 26. So once again this results in a very small risk somewhere between 1 and 2 in a million. He also said that it was extremely likely that several of these deaths would be in people with some kind of serious health condition already before catching Covid.

Finally he said for the over 90s just over 1% had already died from the virus. I would imagine though that for the over 90s many, perhaps even most would already have serious health conditions.
 

Barry Shittpeas

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Yes, I watched him this morning and at first I was quite concerned about this statement but on thinking about it a bit more its not as frightening as it first sounds. The reason is although the risk is doubling with every seven years of age it starts off from a very small number (very close to but not quite zero) so even when it doubles the risk is still extremely small.

Here are the stats he provided in the interview they are for England and Wales only, he did not provide any numbers for Scotland and N.I. They show clearly what I mean about this doubling statement not being as frightening as it would first appear.

There are 10 million under 15s in England and Wales, the total number of deaths from Covid in this category is just 2. So the risk of dying from the virus for the under 15s is virtually zero (1 in 5 million).

He went on to say there are 17 million under 25s, and the total number of Covid deaths for this age group in just 26. So once again this results in a very small risk somewhere between 1 and 2 in a million. He also said that it was extremely likely that several of these deaths would be in people with some kind of serious health condition already before catching Covid.

Finally he said for the over 90s just over 1% had already died from the virus. I would imagine though that for the over 90s many, perhaps even most would already have serious health conditions.
What about general health after not dying? What state are you left in and for how long? Johnson looks like a walking corpse to me, he’s clearly unwell and it probably takes him days of rest to build up to a public appearance. I’ve not seen much of Chris Witty either, what state is he in? I mentioned earlier about the 35 year old, now using a Zimmer frame.
 
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Nev

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What about general health after not dying? What state are you left in and for how long?
I don't think I have seen any stats on this, I am not sure if there are any. I would imagine if you are sick enough to have to stay in hospital then you are going to take a long time to get back to normal. I agree with you BJ looks dreadful I very much doubt if he is up to the job at the moment. Then again was he ever really suited to be someone we could have faith in to deal with a crisis such as this.

I do think though we have to be careful to not to get too influenced by some of the stories we see on the TV or other media. When a child dies of Covid it is all over all the media because that industry knows it will create a lot of interest but I bet if you asked a typical family how many children under 15 had died of Covid in England and Wales they would guess at a number far higher than the actual real number of just 2.

I remember reading a report about that cruise ship in Japan, quite a lot of people caught the virus on it but had either slight or virtually no symptoms. I watched an interview with a couple from South Wales who had been on the ship they were amazed that they tested positive as neither had any symptoms at all. The couple looked to be in their 60s perhaps a bit older.
 

Nev

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the virus causes scarring of the lungs which may be permanent.
Yes it does, but is that for everyone who gets the virus? I would assume that this is only for people who end up in hospital with the virus. For the vast majority who catch it and don't need any treatment I have not read that they also have lung scarring.
 
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