I note with a tinge of amusement that I have attracted a few "disagree" markers regarding my thoughts on the Richmond by-election. The remain camp seem to believe that because an anti BREXIT parliamentary candidate won, in an area which voted by over 70% in favour of remaining in the EU during the referendum, that this somehow represents a sea change in public opinion on the matter.
If we were to hold a by-election in Boston (Lincs) and the candidates canvased on their stance on BREXIT, a pro BREXIT candidate would win for much the same reasons as the Lib Dem candidate won in Richmond. As with Richmond, this would have absolutely nothing to do with the imaginary shift in the nation's stance on BREXIT, as the remainers seem to be putting out.
Since all the post BREXIT predictions of disaster have failed to materialised, and will continue to do so, I suppose this latest fabrication gives them a straw to clutch at.
You are correct....Richmond Park was 70% remain and so it was to be expected that if Remainers are still active there would be a protest vote anti Brexit,it is clear that Remainers are still Remainers,but the shift was 31% from Tory to Lib-dem.
The recent Witney by-election,was Cameron's safe seat,but the Tory majority was reduced from 25000 to 5000,a 21% shift from Tory to Liberal.
It would be very interesting if a strong pro Brexit area experienced a similar shift,there is a by-election in Sleaford and North Hykeham, next week,The seat was a strong Tory seat(56%)and strong leave,most consider the by-election will be fought mainly on immigration,the Liberals(5.7%) if they advanced this would be a surprise and would indicate a sea change against Brexit. It could be that UKIP do well in protest against the slow progress of this government.
But you are ignoring the Tory or Labour marginal seats,,these are the interesting seats,where say a 15% shift to Liberal,the shift being all due to Brexit,could change the holding.
Understand I am no Liberal,I would only vote Liberal as a protest vote against Brexit,but there are many Tory voters who think similarly.
Sky News had an interesting schedule of the likely parliament voting re triggering A50, it looks about even 320 votes to 321,but the whips are unlikely to expose A50 to parliament unless they are sure they can win. MP's are more likely to cause trouble and delays rather than outright vote against.
The EU are clearly monitoring every by-election and aware that there is a large anti-Brexit vote in the UK,this is going to make Davis's and May's negotiations much more difficult,I expect the EU to also practice delaying tactics.
Many of the post vote disasters were overdone but wait awhile,they are coming through the system,many people are very stretched it would not take much to really hurt,some of the price rises and revenue drops are ugly,hope redundancies are kept to a minimum.
KudosDave
