Brexit, for once some facts.

Barry Shittpeas

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And 1.07 to the euro.

Near to proving my forecast at the time of the referendum, that the pound would sink to parity with the euro.

Now we can painlessly rejoin the EU, plus the euro this time. :)
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If the Pound has lost value against the Dollar and the Euro, it goes without saying that those two currencies have gained against the Pound, which illustrates how fragile and lacking in resilience our economy is.

I wonder how many champagne corks are popping this week? This currency and stock market instability means some people are going to add another fortune to the fortunes they already possess.
 

Nev

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May 1, 2018
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I didn't see the start of the PMs daily briefing today, so perhaps there was an explanation. Does anyone know why the guy who normally stands on the PMs right hand side had been replaced with his deputy?

I heard on the radio this morning that one of the experts from UCL who had provided the model that caused the government to take all this a lot more serious had caught the virus and I wonder if he had passed it on to the chap missing from the briefing today.
 

Wicky

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What Boris isn't frankly telling us...


16 March 2020, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand

We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.

...

To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more. Adaptive hospital surveillance-based triggers for switching on and off population-wide social distancing and school closure offer greater robustness to uncertainty than fixed duration interventions and can be adapted for regional use (e.g. at the state level in the US). Given local epidemics are not perfectly synchronised, local policies are also more efficient and can achieve comparable levels of suppression to national policies while being in force for a slightly smaller proportion of the time. However, we estimate that for a national GB policy, social distancing would need to be in force for at least 2/3 of the time (for R0=2.4, see Table 4) until a vaccine was available.
:eek:
 
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Barry Shittpeas

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 1, 2020
2,325
3,210
I didn't see the start of the PMs daily briefing today, so perhaps there was an explanation. Does anyone know why the guy who normally stands on the PMs right hand side had been replaced with his deputy?

I heard on the radio this morning that one of the experts from UCL who had provided the model that caused the government to take all this a lot more serious had caught the virus and I wonder if he had passed it on to the chap missing from the briefing today.
I can never work out if it’s Ant or Dec who stands on the right. My guess would be that it’s Ant who’s missing, but don’t quote me on that.
 

oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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I can never work out if it’s Ant or Dec who stands on the right. My guess would be that it’s Ant who’s missing, but don’t quote me on that.
No. it's just that De Pfeffel is having an outbreak of "Experts" and they come in all shapes and sizes, but as soon as they say something to upset Cummings get booted out :cool:
 
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Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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What Boris isn't frankly telling us...
0.9% IFR (overall infection fatality rate), much worse for pensioners.



and the peak of the disease is in December 2020. Until then, the number will rise faster and faster.
There won't be enough hospital beds.

 
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oldgroaner

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And in other jolly news
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/18/people-blood-type-may-greater-risk-coronavirus-say-scientists/

People with blood type A may be at greater risk from coronavirus, say scientists
Researchers are urging medics and governments to consider blood types when assessing the risk to a patient

They found that those with blood type A were more vulnerable to contracting the disease and tended to develop more severe symptoms, while those with blood type O had a "significantly lower risk" of getting the disease.
 
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oldgroaner

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Better news
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/18/coronavirus-cure-hope-79-year-old-italian-man-successfully-treated/
Coronavirus cure hope as 79-year-old Italian man successfully treated with experimental drug
The drug, remdesivir, was first developed by US drug firm Gilead to treat Ebola

The broad-spectrum antiviral was developed by US drug firm Gilead for Ebola and was used to treat the Scottish nurse Pauline Cafferkey when she suffered a relapse 18 months after being cleared of the disease which she contracted while volunteering in Sierra Leone.

Currently remdesivir is being tested in five Covid-19 clinical trials including by the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) on 13 patients hospitalised after contracting coronavirus on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan.
 

oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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De Pfeffel and co don't want this because it's European

Your reminder that the UK govt is STILL refusing to participate in the daily EU health minister conference call (which even non EU Switzerland are joining) to help share information & best coordination on Coronavirus.... ...because...”it’s European”.
Idiots
 
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oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
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And in other jolly news
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/18/people-blood-type-may-greater-risk-coronavirus-say-scientists/

People with blood type A may be at greater risk from coronavirus, say scientists
Researchers are urging medics and governments to consider blood types when assessing the risk to a patient

They found that those with blood type A were more vulnerable to contracting the disease and tended to develop more severe symptoms, while those with blood type O had a "significantly lower risk" of getting the disease.
Paper on which that was based:

34425
 
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oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
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0.9% IFR (overall infection fatality rate), much worse for pensioners.



and the peak of the disease is in December 2020. Until then, the number will rise faster and faster.
There won't be enough hospital beds.

From a very personal point of view, the 60-69 group is considerably worse but the worry only seems to start at 70. (Though 65 has been talked about in the USA.)
 
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oyster

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Eventually we'll have to relax the restrictions if this is ongoing, opting for herd immunity. So what this means ironically is that it may have been the right way in the first place after all.
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Not if vaccines and treatments become available.

Leaving all other considerations aside (however unrealistic), delaying and delaying gives a greater window in which to identify, manufacture and deploy the vaccines and treatments. (Though whether a hundred years would be enough for Johnson to get some ventilators manufactured is a question that we might never see answered.)

And they need to be mindful that delay is not procrastination.
 
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Woosh

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my immediate problem is when to put the prices up.
I am paying for new supplies at £1 = $1.11 today.
 
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Woosh

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My point was, if it's ongoing while waiting a long time for vaccines, then we may get herd immunity first anyway.
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if it goes like flu, immunity may not last for more than 1 to 2 years.
 

Barry Shittpeas

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Jan 1, 2020
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I am a committee member on both a local cycling and running club. It is very interesting to see the behaviour of our members based on age group.

Those members under 30 seem to be ignoring government advice. Both clubs have officially stopped hosting any organised rides or runs. However, the under 30s, in both clubs, are organising their own group runs / rides via Facebook and other social media. They seem to be going to great lengths to circumvent any advice. When I cancelled the AGM earlier this week, I had people (under 30) sending me messages, with photographs attached, of them holding a pint pot in a pub saying, it’s all calming here!

Members in their 40s, seem to be adhering to government advice as and when it is issued, but not before. Our lady members seem particularly good at adhering to advice

Those in their 50s, seem to be about one week ahead of the game. Many of our members in their 50s, last week or earlier, made it clear that they wouldn’t be coming to the clubs for the foreseeable future, or until the situation improves.

Members in their 60s and above have stopped attending the clubs since the outbreak was in single figures.

To me, it seems that we have the biggest problem with our 30 year old population. In a way, they have a lot to lose because many of them have eye watering mortgages, rent to pay, leased cars and hideous credit card debt. Statistically, their health is less likely to be severely affected by the virus, but their livelihoods and security could be severely affected. They simply do not seem to get it.
 

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