Brexit, for once some facts.

[Danidl]

I have read and re read the available bumf on this deal, and frankly it looks as if Boris has simply surrendered to the EU!

On the face of it goods from the EU come into NI tariff free, but goods out to them have tariffs applied?
This Customs Union business appears to favour the EU, though it is all so confusing, perhaps someone can put me straight on that?

Long term it looks like the end for a divided Ireland.

My take on the divided Ireland bit is actually the reverse. There is no reason now,as far as an NI person is concerned,to promote a political union South and North. In fact as the process washes through,and the financial advantages of remaining aligned but separate will become more apparent,there will be a strong incentive for the NI Assembly to stay as they are.
I do however expect that there will need to be inspections on goods leaving Ireland , originating from beyond RoI, on ferries to France.

 

[Woosh]

I do however expect that there will need to be inspections on goods leaving Ireland , originating from beyond RoI, on ferries to France.

that's the job for our border force.
I guess a free trade deal will ensure that the UK regulatory regime will remain aligned to the EU. Anything having an EU label with be accepted duty free.

 

[oldgroaner]

Dominic Raab acidentally tells the truth as detailed in this tweet
"

Rob Merrick@Rob_Merrick

Very revealing.....Dominic Raab hails a “cracking deal” for Northern Ireland because it will keep “frictionless access to the single market” That’s EXACTLY why the rest of the UK will be left poorer, of course

 

[oldgroaner]

Thought for the Day
17.4 Million people's willies wanted Brexit!
This is why certain parts of the anatomy have specialised functions.

 

[Danidl]

from 2021, NI remains in the EU CU and SM with some exceptions.
There will be a panel formed by EU's and UK's officials to supervise VAT and duty on goods coming into NI from the UK. Some goods are deemed to be consumed only in NI, not going South, will be let through without EU's duty levy. Some will pay full tariff if destined for the ROI. Some fish if landed directly to a NI port will be exempted even sold on to the ROI. The rest will rely on traders' estimates, how much they reckon will be sold on to the ROI or EU, that portion will pay EU duty.
Take sugar for example: if a trader buys x amount of sugar then sell 50% to the shops in NI and 50% of that sugar to a soft drink factory in NI. That soft drink company has a historic trading pattern that is 50/50 split between NI and the ROI, then the trader should declare that 25% of his shipment will end up in the ROI, he'll pay EU duty only on that 25%.
Clear as muck.

..and of course myself and all the Louth, Cavan and Monaghan shoppers travel north to Sainsbury's in Sprucefield,and buy that sugar, and the iced biscuits . But this is just peanuts in the great scheme of things, ..It is what happens with the bulk containers on the Rosslare Le Havre ferry that matters.
Seriously,it is materials like pharmaceutical active product which are the concern. There is big money in this. Even a couple of Kgs of the active ingredient, is millions.

 

[Woosh]

Dominic Raab acidentally tells the truth as detailed in this tweet
"

Rob Merrick@Rob_Merrick

Very revealing.....Dominic Raab hails a “cracking deal” for Northern Ireland because it will keep “frictionless access to the single market” That’s EXACTLY why the rest of the UK will be left poorer, of course

via NI.

 

[flecc]

from 2021, NI remains in the EU CU and SM with some exceptions.
There will be a panel formed by EU's and UK's officials to supervise VAT and duty on goods coming into NI from the UK. Some goods are deemed to be consumed only in NI, not going South, will be let through without EU's duty levy. Some will pay full tariff if destined for the ROI. Some fish if landed directly to a NI port will be exempted even sold on to the ROI. The rest will rely on traders' estimates, how much they reckon will be sold on to the ROI or EU, that portion will pay EU duty.
Take sugar for example: if a trader buys x amount of sugar then sell 50% to the shops in NI and 50% of that sugar to a soft drink factory in NI. That soft drink company has a historic trading pattern that is 50/50 split between NI and the ROI, then the trader should declare that 25% of his shipment will end up in the ROI, he'll pay EU duty only on that 25%.
Clear as muck.

That's as leaky as a colander, the Irish on both sides will take advantage of every one of the many loopholes.
.

 

[Woosh]

..and of course myself and all the Louth, Cavan and Monaghan shoppers travel north to Sainsbury's in Sprucefield,and buy that sugar, and the iced biscuits . But this is just peanuts in the great scheme of things, ..It is what happens with the bulk containers on the Rosslare Le Havre ferry that matters.
Seriously,it is materials like pharmaceutical active product which are the concern. There is big money in this. Even a couple of Kgs of the active ingredient, is millions.

I don't think we are going to brexit anytime soon.
In the next couple of years, the smoke will be cleared. It will become self evident that the only deal that matters is with the EU. People will understand how much was promised and how much can concretely be achieved.
Then a more lucid decision can be arrived at.

 

[50Hertz]

What happens to the £39 billion?

 

[Danidl]

What happens to the £39 billion?

It is part of the 520 pages left untouched. The new 64 pages is just the backstop replacement text, all the rest remains. Now was that short enough for you?.

 

[Danidl]

That's as leaky as a colander, the Irish on both sides will take advantage of every one of the many loopholes.
.

Yes of course. But the ability of the Irish to consume much is very limited. It is what happens with the majority of product flowing into a 500 million market or eastwards into a 60 million market that matters.

 

[50Hertz]

It is part of the 520 pages left untouched. The new 64 pages is just the backstop replacement text, all the rest remains. Now was that short enough for you?.

Perfect. Thank you very much.

 

[oldgroaner]

So that's the game is it?
"BBC Newsnight
“There’s been a fundamental improvement in this deal… if there’s no deal struck in the transition period up to December 2020, the UK has the right, with the Northern Ireland provisions in place to leave on no-deal terms.” Brexiteer MP John Baron on the PM’s deal

Leave on No deal terms? this is becoming insane.

 

[oldgroaner]

The BBC are doing their bit for the cause, in the news just now they interviewed people in Barnsley and concluded that there is no change in the solidity of the leave vote support.
Boris will be pleased with them.

 

[oldgroaner]

Insane times we live in. For example

The real question is what percentage actually understand it?
And this
YouGov
@YouGov

BREAKING: Snap YouGov poll finds that by 41% to 24%, Britons want Parliament to pass Boris Johnson's Brexit deal. Two thirds (67%) of Leave voters want the deal passed

There you have it, incontrovertible proof that leave Voters and indeed the general public, do in fact vote for things they do not understand.
It simply doesn't bother them!

 

[Woosh]

So that's the game is it?
"BBC Newsnight
“There’s been a fundamental improvement in this deal… if there’s no deal struck in the transition period up to December 2020, the UK has the right, with the Northern Ireland provisions in place to leave on no-deal terms.” Brexiteer MP John Baron on the PM’s deal

Leave on No deal terms? this is becoming insane.

it's still up to parliament to stop Bojo taking us out on no deal by voting for another Benn Act.

 

[50Hertz]

The BBC are doing their bit for the cause, in the news just now they interviewed people in Barnsley and concluded that there is no change in the solidity of the leave vote support.
Boris will be pleased with them.

I don’t think you should read too much into this. In general, the people of Barnsley speak with a ridiculous accent, the sound of which equalls the stupidity of the people living there.

They don’t know why they want Brexit, what Brexit means or how they will benefit from Brexit. They are just plain old plenty stupid them Barnsley folk.

 

[50Hertz]

it's still up to parliament to stop Bojo taking us out on no deal by voting for another Benn Act.

I think he’s going to get the deal through. Minister for anything that’s easy to do, Sarah Champion has said she will now back it. I think there will be more like her too. Get it through, keep my seat, continue to campaign for a greater variety of bra sizes for pregnant goats, or similar.

 

[50Hertz]

Interesting that workers rights have been moved from a mandatory part of the deal to an aspirational one. Now why would they want to do that? Removing workers rights was a biggie for the Jacob Reece Mogg types.

Barnsley knob-head man will be thinking it’s because Reece Mogg wants to be free to reduce his working week, pay him more money and bring forwards his retirement date.

I think tomorrow will see the carefully chartered path straight into the iceberg happen. We can then get on with the sinking. Sorry Barnsley knob-head man, all the lifeboats are full and I’ve got one of the seats. Get your trunks on and good luck. We tried to tell you.

 

[oldgroaner]

Ah well, it was inevitable that May's deal would make a comeback, what is left to play for tomorrow is of course a confirmatory referendum, otherwise this is going to be a long rough ride!