yes, that's what he said then.
We all know by now that he has always been easy with the truth.
Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
- Start date
We all know by now that he has always been easy with the truth.
Deal: 30
No deal: 20
It's a foregone conclusion.
that's difficult to say.
The 20% who wanted no deal already thought that Bojo 's deal is rubbish anyway, 8 or more out of 20 would rather remain and fight another day.
If that happens, the result would be to remain.
rebel alliance takes control this Saturday.
Time to reintroduce new amendment for second referendum?
Time to reintroduce new amendment for second referendum?
I don't know the arithmetic in the HoC, but my reading is this
.
1. DUP will vote No.
2. The Majority of Labour will vote No.
3. The Majority of Tories will vote Yes..and may include a majority of tge people expelled.
4. The others SNP, etc. will split 50% 50%
The Irish view is cautious optimism. The best course of action for the DUP would be abstain, because voting NO is deeply unpopular even with their core. I don't think they have that level of cop on in their DNA.
Donald Trusk has stated no extension..but that is because he believes,or is prepared to give the benefit of a doubt to the British PM. Were it to fail, I could imagine another extension, but with a demand for a second referendum. Now D.Trusk leaves office in a fortnight, so no extension is an obvious position. Honourable people try not to leave a mess behind them.
So all in all Saturday will be a great day for Sport England Australia as the starter, . .. Ireland All Blacks in the morning as the Entree and the HoC as the dessert
.
1. DUP will vote No.
2. The Majority of Labour will vote No.
3. The Majority of Tories will vote Yes..and may include a majority of tge people expelled.
4. The others SNP, etc. will split 50% 50%
The Irish view is cautious optimism. The best course of action for the DUP would be abstain, because voting NO is deeply unpopular even with their core. I don't think they have that level of cop on in their DNA.
Donald Trusk has stated no extension..but that is because he believes,or is prepared to give the benefit of a doubt to the British PM. Were it to fail, I could imagine another extension, but with a demand for a second referendum. Now D.Trusk leaves office in a fortnight, so no extension is an obvious position. Honourable people try not to leave a mess behind them.
So all in all Saturday will be a great day for Sport England Australia as the starter, . .. Ireland All Blacks in the morning as the Entree and the HoC as the dessert
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it is exactly what he said in 2018. Every time he appears in public, or attends any interview, he should not be allowed to get past that statement he made in 2018 until he provides a satisfactory explanation.
SNP will vote No, Bojo will have about 300 MPs assuming he has half of the whipless tory MPs with him, well short of 325 to be sure.
That's why he needs 30 Labour MPs voting for his deal. They could name their price, if it's just money then it will be easy but I suspect they would want a second referendum as insurance.
Labour will now back a second referendum. They will have all the opposition parties backing a second referendum plus about half of the whipless tory MPs . I reckon they'll get the number by now.
Bojo at least does not have to die in a ditch.
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I don’t think he can promise anything which will persuade / bribe MPs to vote with him. His credibility, his word and his trust are all completely shot through.
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Mr Farage has said that he would prefer another extension than this now current deal ..due to be voted on Saturday. We must be doing something right.
What many in the UK,and that may include some posters here, may not understand is that the DUP does not speak for NI. Leaving aside the polite terminology that Ms Foster is First Minister..which has not been tested,since the NI assembly has not met in 1001 days,and unlike Westminster,the assembly elects the FM. There are a plethora of different Unionist groupings even before the quasi republican / labour side is considered.
There is still , I suspect a majority in favour of political Union with the UK, but not necessarily for DUP.
What the agreement struck today means is that a simple majority in NI will determine whether the new arrangement will continue indefinitely,or will cease. I can see it continuing indefinitely.
What the DUP probably cannot get their heads around, is that they have lost the battle, but won the war. When the electorate in NI wake up to the fact, that this arrangement is much more beneficial, than either full UK,like Scotland or full EU like Southern Ireland, they will not be voting for a United Ireland.
What many in the UK,and that may include some posters here, may not understand is that the DUP does not speak for NI. Leaving aside the polite terminology that Ms Foster is First Minister..which has not been tested,since the NI assembly has not met in 1001 days,and unlike Westminster,the assembly elects the FM. There are a plethora of different Unionist groupings even before the quasi republican / labour side is considered.
There is still , I suspect a majority in favour of political Union with the UK, but not necessarily for DUP.
What the agreement struck today means is that a simple majority in NI will determine whether the new arrangement will continue indefinitely,or will cease. I can see it continuing indefinitely.
What the DUP probably cannot get their heads around, is that they have lost the battle, but won the war. When the electorate in NI wake up to the fact, that this arrangement is much more beneficial, than either full UK,like Scotland or full EU like Southern Ireland, they will not be voting for a United Ireland.
a lot of details will have to be worked out in the transition period, not just VAT and import duty. A lot of paperwork will be needed to justify to both UK and EU authorities.
I don't think this deal is as good for NI as TM' deal. Keeping UK close to the EU is the best way to preserve the current state. Don't forget that for NI, trade with the UK is nearly twice as important as trade wit the EU.
Don't forget that Ireland's position was even worse than that at 90% to UK and 10% rest of world, prior to EU membership..now it is the reverse. Unless you are actually here, you cannot appreciate the volume of NI trade,services, etc within the Island of Ireland. The majority of white vans with tradesmen I see daily have NI plates. NI is in a unique position within the UK to capitalise on EU trade. ..It is as close as walking across the street.
Reading through the 25 pages again the so called Political agreement, it all seems somewhat vague, not helped by many clauses being preceded by the word "should", which is by far the most frequently used prefix
Sorry but this looks as watertight as a string vest.
Read it for yourself
Frankly it's just nowhere near a commitment by either side to do anything!
I wonder when we will get to see the actual WA so we can compare it with May's deal?
Sorry but this looks as watertight as a string vest.
Read it for yourself
Frankly it's just nowhere near a commitment by either side to do anything!
I wonder when we will get to see the actual WA so we can compare it with May's deal?
Here is a slightly larger document that runs to 64 pages
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7583709/Boris-Johnsons-Brexit-deal-Read-text-Britains-agreement-EU-here.html
So what became of the other 490?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7583709/Boris-Johnsons-Brexit-deal-Read-text-Britains-agreement-EU-here.html
So what became of the other 490?
the ERG is doing the hard sell for Bojo's deal this morning on TV claiming that Bojo 'performed a micracle'.
Expect to see St Boris coming home on his zip wire to lead them to victory tomorrow.
In fact, as one journalist pointed out, it's choosing between meat and fish on the EU menu.
Bojo decided to shaft NI to gain distance from the EU, something that TM could not bring herself to do.
He may win tomorrow though because apparently, JC is happy that his MPs can vote for the deal tomorrow.
I have read and re read the available bumf on this deal, and frankly it looks as if Boris has simply surrendered to the EU!
On the face of it goods from the EU come into NI tariff free, but goods out to them have tariffs applied?
This Customs Union business appears to favour the EU, though it is all so confusing, perhaps someone can put me straight on that?
Long term it looks like the end for a divided Ireland.
the WA treaty won't be ready until December, it's being redrafted at the moment then translated into 26 other languages. Don't expect it to be ratified before Christmas.
I reckon it will be just as thick as before.
Parliament won't vote on the WA tomorrow.
What MPs will be asked to do is to cancel the Benn's Act to allow Brexit to happen at the end of the month.
Estimates say that 318 for Bojo, 323 against but JC will know.
from 2021, NI remains in the EU CU and SM with some exceptions.
There will be a panel formed by EU's and UK's officials to supervise VAT and duty on goods coming into NI from the UK. Some goods are deemed to be consumed only in NI, not going South, will be let through without EU's duty levy. Some will pay full tariff if destined for the ROI. Some fish if landed directly to a NI port will be exempted even sold on to the ROI. The rest will rely on traders' estimates, how much they reckon will be sold on to the ROI or EU, that portion will pay EU duty.
Take sugar for example: if a trader buys x amount of sugar then sell 50% to the shops in NI and 50% of that sugar to a soft drink factory in NI. That soft drink company has a historic trading pattern that is 50/50 split between NI and the ROI, then the trader should declare that 25% of his shipment will end up in the ROI, he'll pay EU duty only on that 25%.
Clear as muck.