Brexit, for once some facts.

jonathan.agnew

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in 2017, Labour and tories benefited from tactical voting.
This time, if GE is before brexit, Labour and Tories will lose out to LibDems and the BXP but Labour will lose more than Tories, if GE is after brexit, Labour will be trounced because remainers will blame JC's inaction.
In either scenarios, beating JC is easier than last time.
In 2017 may patronised the electorate too much. Boris's lack of substance may take him the same way. I am not at all sure undecided voters wouldnt blame boris more, not least for the financial haemorrhage we may be beginning to witness
 

Woosh

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In 2017 may patronised the electorate too much. Boris's lack of substance may take him the same way. I am not at all sure undecided voters wouldnt blame boris more, not least for the financial haemorrhage we may be beginning to witness
Bojo may promise a lot but delivers little until now, beside the £1 billion extra cash to prepare for WTO brexit and it's still not all spent.

It shows that he's much better than TM at electioneering.
Remainers need MPs like Jeremy Hunt and Rory Stewart to fight Bojo.
 

Woosh

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I am not at all sure undecided voters wouldnt blame boris more, not least for the financial haemorrhage we may be beginning to witness
Most financial decisions will create winners and losers but would Bojo screw it up? don't be so sure, and it will take years to happen, if at all. The Pound loses ground at the moment because of uncertainty but it will soon recover I think.
 

jonathan.agnew

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Bojo may promise a lot but delivers little until now, beside the £1 billion extra cash to prepare for WTO brexit and it's still not all spent.

It shows that he's much better than TM at electioneering.
Remainers need MPs like Jeremy Hunt and Rory Stewart to fight Bojo.
Perhaps it stems from us being on different parts of the political spectrum (I dont mind a corbyn government). One thing I would say is that hubris did it for may. And boris has truckloads of that. As well as dodgy emotionally unstable advisors with serious narcissistic issues (Cummings, May had that too). The term groupthink doesnt come close to describing how badly this combination can go wrong.
 
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oldgroaner

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Boris is enjoying a bounce in the polls, they are calling it the Boris Bounce. It's the novelty factor, new hope, tough talk, bold promises. It's all vapour-wear, he's done nothing that you can see, feel or touch, but it is having a positive effect. This can only last for a very very short time because he stands no chance of delivering anything he has promised with such a weak majority. People will start to realise this extremely quickly and the Boris bounce will disappear as fast as it arrived. The votes will then flow back to BXP.

If he pounces on an election now, he might just win it with a workable majority. It's his only chance of clinging on for a full term. If he leaves it until October, he's had it.

Look at the way he is behaving, touring the country, pledging new train lines, promising more constables. This is a man in the middle of an election campaign, but Corbyn hasn't cottoned on yet and will be caught with his trousers down.

Just my observations.
Excellent news I hope he gets a large majority and its a no deal
 
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oldgroaner

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Is this true Gerald?
Well it was on his site and I saw it there, but these days who is to say he actually posted it?
Someone could perhaps have set him up?
More on this thread

And considering this video, I'm not surprised at anything he says

After all if you confuse the Red Sea with the Irish Sea, you are better qualified that Boris to be Foreign Secretary.
 
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Danidl

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Most financial decisions will create winners and losers but would Bojo screw it up? don't be so sure, and it will take years to happen, if at all. The Pound loses ground at the moment because of uncertainty but it will soon recover I think.
I think the reason the pound is dropping is not uncertainty, but increasing certainty,that there will be a Crashout.
 

50Hertz

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Excellent news I hope he gets a large majority and its a no deal
I'm shocked. I had no idea you had changed your mind over Brexit.

I'd got you down as the most stubborn & intransigent man to have ever existed, incapable, even for one pico-second, of entertaining the tiniest "cell level" filament of an alternative viewpoint. Clearly, as shown by your recent decision to back leave and no-deal, I was wrong. :)
 
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Woosh

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I think the reason the pound is dropping is not uncertainty, but increasing certainty,that there will be a Crashout.
I still think that on balance of probability, A50 will be extended yet again until end of this year.
If parliament ratifies the WA, it'll need time to pass secondary legislation.
if not, it's because parliament votes for no confidence. In that case, A50 will need to be extended.
 

Fingers

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Well it was on his site and I saw it there, but these days who is to say he actually posted it?
Someone could perhaps have set him up?
More on this thread

And considering this video, I'm not surprised at anything he says

After all if you confuse the Red Sea with the Irish Sea, you are better qualified that Boris to be Foreign Secretary.
No. I meant is English your first language?
 

Fingers

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In 2017 may patronised the electorate too much. Boris's lack of substance may take him the same way. I am not at all sure undecided voters wouldnt blame boris more, not least for the financial haemorrhage we may be beginning to witness

They won't screw it up this time.

But I am of the belief there will not be a ge. I'm at millbank tomorrow so will ask Laura and John what they reckon.
 
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Danidl

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I still think that on balance of probability, A50 will be extended yet again until end of this year.
If parliament ratifies the WA, it'll need time to pass secondary legislation.
if not, it's because parliament votes for no confidence. In that case, A50 will need to be extended.
Woosh, The UK has run out of rope on this one. The EU might be willing .. although not a slam dunk, to extend the extension yet again, if there were a decision from the UK,and stating No No Deal does not cut it. Also the UK has to REQUEST the extension, and who speaks for the UK if not the PM?. If the UK were by some miracle or catastrophe (depending on ones view point),to enact the WA, then,any extension would be irrelevant as the negotiations would be moving into the next phase.
 

oldgroaner

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I'm shocked. I had no idea you had changed your mind over Brexit.

I'd got you down as the most stubborn & intransigent man to have ever to existed, incapable, even for one pico-second, of entertaining the tiniest "cell level" filament of an alternative viewpoint. Clearly, as shown by your recent decision to back leave and no-deal, I was wrong. :)
Very droll! You have known all along that the only reason I like the idea of a no deal brexit is for it to provide the fastest route back into the EU due to the harm it will do.
Since cancelling brexit simply isn't going to happen I have supported this idea since the early days after the referendum.
I appreciate your attempt at humour, though
 
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flecc

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I'm shocked. I had no idea you had changed your mind over Brexit.

I'd got you down as the most stubborn & intransigent man to have ever to existed, incapable, even for one pico-second, of entertaining the tiniest "cell level" filament of an alternative viewpoint. Clearly, as shown by your recent decision to back leave and no-deal, I was wrong. :)
OG was the only one at the start of this thread to correctly predict that the referendum would be won by Leave.

And since then he's consistently said he hopes we do leave to teach the leave voters a lesson with the consequences. That's partly what he's doing in the post you answered, not becoming a leaver himself.

There's far more to OG than many in this thread realise.
.
 

Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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Very droll! You have known all along that the only reason I like the idea of a no deal brexit is for it to provide the fastest route back into the EU due to the harm it will do.
Since cancelling brexit simply isn't going to happen I have supported this idea since the early days after the referendum.
I appreciate your attempt at humour, though
Dont like to dampen your chips OG but it wasnt humour. It was as near to factual as we get on here.
 

Zlatan

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OG was the only one at the start of this thread to correctly predict that the referendum would be won by Leave.

And since then he's consistently said he hopes we do leave to teach the leave voters a lesson with the consequences. That's partly what he's doing in the post you answered, not becoming a leaver himself.

There's far more to OG than many in this thread realise.
.
Oh, yes ofcourse, he picked winner in a 2 horse race. Nostradamus lives in Hull and sells bogs for a living.
To be fair to Gerald he has posted more on here than Nostradamus wrote in Les Prophities, when you post so much, something by laws of averages must be right. His sharing out of fishing cash was one of his low ebbs.
 

50Hertz

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Jan 2, 2019
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OG was the only one at the start of this thread to correctly predict that the referendum would be won by Leave.

And since then he's consistently said he hopes we do leave to teach the leave voters a lesson with the consequences. That's partly what he's doing in the post you answered, not becoming a leaver himself.

There's far more to OG than many in this thread realise.
.
He's awesome. :)
 
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50Hertz

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Jan 2, 2019
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Very droll! You have known all along that the only reason I like the idea of a no deal brexit is for it to provide the fastest route back into the EU due to the harm it will do.
Since cancelling brexit simply isn't going to happen I have supported this idea since the early days after the referendum.
I appreciate your attempt at humour, though
My original thoughts were correct then?
 
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