Brexit, for once some facts.

[Woosh]

For us to extend A50, as far as I am aware, all the other country's have to agree.
It would only take one of the 27 to vote against and we would be back at no deal.

extending the first time is probably OK, the second time not, it would be between no deal or no brexit.

And that also fails!.
The assumption that the EU is lining up waiting to give the UK an extension is potentially flawed. While some in the centre eg Junkers, Barnier and Our Leo would be wishing it so, it is NOT a fait accompli. All it requires is one country, out of 27 to stick their oar in and the facade collapses...(great mixing of metaphors there). And there is only One week available, otherwise it becomes illegal.
The problem with a rule based system is that there are rules.

It could well be that May's deal, No Deal and extending A50 won't command a majority of MPs.
In that case, no brexit may be the only possible answer when we arrive at the eve of 29-March.
It may be the best way out, wait until 2022 GE and re-run the referendum.

 

[Woosh]

the Government is making plans to pay billions of euros to Brussels to settle large parts of the £39bn Brexit divorce bill even in the event of a ‘no deal’

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/25/government-planning-pay-billions-brussels-even-event-no-dealbrexit/

 

[flecc]

the Government is making plans to pay billions of euros to Brussels to settle large parts of the £39bn Brexit divorce bill even in the event of a ‘no deal’

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/25/government-planning-pay-billions-brussels-even-event-no-dealbrexit/

Of course, at least £11 billions are legal liabilities.
.

 

[Fingers]

12-March: meaningful vote. If that fails, 13-March: No Deal motion.
If that fails, 14-March: Extending A50 motion.
What if that also fails? second referendum?

She wants to kick the can down the road till June now.

She seems to think that the hard drop off is the EU elections and this will instill the level of urgency she thinks the MPs are lacking.

She is quite deranged.

 

[Woosh]

She wants to kick the can down the road till June now.

She seems to think that the hard drop off is the EU elections and this will instill the level of urgency she thinks the MPs are lacking.

She is quite deranged.

If her deal wins, she needs a couple of months to sort out the legislation, nothing change to the real deadline: 1/1/2021.
If you think her deal is hopeless, no deal is even more hopeless, even if the ERG convince themselves that they can live with a couple of months from the cliff edge.
People begin to see that no deal is no good for the vast majority:
1. we still pay a large chunk of the £39 billions
2. prices will go up, not down
3. the country will be paralysed

 

[jonathan.agnew]

If her deal wins, she needs a couple of months to sort out the legislation, nothing change to the real deadline: 1/1/2021.
If you think her deal is hopeless, no deal is even more hopeless, even if the ERG convince themselves that they can live with a couple of months from the cliff edge.
People begin to see that no deal is no good for the vast majority:
1. we still pay a large chunk of the £39 billions
2. prices will go up, not down
3. the country will be paralysed

All very true. But how many brexit voters have you met that are interested in the facts, or financial impact? And has the dalek mantra of we won get over it increased or decreased over the recent weeks? It's obvious to me this is really about a political coup and that it will take far more than a few billion quid or raised prices to change that

 

[Fingers]

All very true. But how many brexit voters have you met that are interested in the facts, or financial impact? And has the dalek mantra of we won get over it increased or decreased over the recent weeks? It's obvious to me this is really about a political coup and that it will take far more than a few billion quid or raised prices to change that

It's never going to happen.

I have said all along we will never leave.

The establishment simply will not allow it to happen.

 

[oldgroaner]

All very true. But how many brexit voters have you met that are interested in the facts, or financial impact? And has the dalek mantra of we won get over it increased or decreased over the recent weeks? It's obvious to me this is really about a political coup and that it will take far more than a few billion quid or raised prices to change that

The truth is that the referendum was simply one part of a right wing international plot to eliminate modern socially aware states and put the clock back to the early days of the industrial revolution where people were just work units with no rights.
The wheel will turn of course in time, but for now the puncture in the tyre hasn't reached the bottom yet.
Future Historians will look back and marvel that men like Boris Johnson could write a book where he claims that the NHS should be privatized and all treatment charged for, as "Anything people get for nothing they will abuse" And yet stand in from of the red bus and convince millions of people that the "Money we send to the EU could be spent on the NHS"

Two quotes seem appropriate to a greater or lesser degree

Democracy substitutes election by the incompetent many for appointment by the corrupt few. George Bernard Shaw
That one I fully agree with

The next one was something I disagree with (mostly) with the exception of when as now the other quote applies!

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. Winston Churchill

 

[oldgroaner]

It's never going to happen.

I have said all along we will never leave.

The establishment simply will not allow it to happen.

Which establishment would that be?

 

[Woosh]

Which establishment would that be?

the conservative party.
both sides have billionaire backers.

 

[Fingers]

Which establishment would that be?

Whoosh is right but it transcends mere political parties.

 

[gray198]

they gave us a vote that they didn't want to accept the result of and now they are scrambling to overturn it by any means possible. In the words of Trigger 'Why Ask'

 

[Wicky]

Oh what cheery reading > Brexit: No-deal impact assessment published

I wonder how long May has been sitting on this - I hope there's a delay not just for a couple of months but a 100 years!

The government has published its assessment of the impact of a no-deal Brexit on business and trade.
The report said "some food prices are likely to increase" and customs checks could cost business £13bn a year in a no-deal scenario.

It also said there was "little evidence that businesses are preparing in earnest".

It repeated analysis suggesting a no-deal scenario could leave the UK economy 6.3% to 9% smaller after 15 years, compared to what it would have been.

It said the worst-hit areas economically in a no-deal scenario would be Wales (-8.1%), Scotland (-8.0%), Northern Ireland (-9.1%) and the north east (-10.5%).

It also warned that a no-deal Brexit would "affect the viability of many businesses across Northern Ireland", and said some businesses could relocate to the Republic of Ireland.

 

[oyster]

It also said there was "little evidence that businesses are preparing in earnest".

Today I was talking to a chap who pretty much is the UK branch of a French company. Preparations for brexit? None. He has next to no idea what is going to happen which makes it very difficult to do any preparation. I suspect that an awful lot of small companies are in the same boat.

 

[Wicky]

H.M. Government has it all in hand for March 29th with this Brexit public information poster campaign...

 

[Fingers]

Oh what cheery reading > Brexit: No-deal impact assessment published

I wonder how long May has been sitting on this - I hope there's a delay not just for a couple of months but a 100 years!

The government has published its assessment of the impact of a no-deal Brexit on business and trade.
The report said "some food prices are likely to increase" and customs checks could cost business £13bn a year in a no-deal scenario.

It also said there was "little evidence that businesses are preparing in earnest".

It repeated analysis suggesting a no-deal scenario could leave the UK economy 6.3% to 9% smaller after 15 years, compared to what it would have been.

It said the worst-hit areas economically in a no-deal scenario would be Wales (-8.1%), Scotland (-8.0%), Northern Ireland (-9.1%) and the north east (-10.5%).

It also warned that a no-deal Brexit would "affect the viability of many businesses across Northern Ireland", and said some businesses could relocate to the Republic of Ireland.

Wow. If only they could have predicted these forecasts in 1993 we could have prepared for the bank crisis 15 years in the future!

Why didn’t they do that? I’m gutted. It would have saved so much misery. Tut tut. Sleeping on the job I suppose. Or maybe they were too busy playing with their tamogachis?

The key word is could. Could. They have no more clue of the future than anyone else.

Anything could happen. Could being the operative word.

Are we prepared? No. How can we be? We have been programmed to believe leaving the EU is going to be a disaster.

As is said by many in here. We can always rejoin if it is. But why not see if we can make a go of it? Why not honour the democratic process?

Oh yes. We’re not allowed free will.

When did the spineless, simpering ones get to rule us despite democracy?

 

[Fingers]

The truth is that the referendum was simply one part of a right wing international plot to eliminate modern socially aware states and put the clock back to the early days of the industrial revolution where people were just work units with no rights.
The wheel will turn of course in time, but for now the puncture in the tyre hasn't reached the bottom yet.
Future Historians will look back and marvel that men like Boris Johnson could write a book where he claims that the NHS should be privatized and all treatment charged for, as "Anything people get for nothing they will abuse" And yet stand in from of the red bus and convince millions of people that the "Money we send to the EU could be spent on the NHS"

Two quotes seem appropriate to a greater or lesser degree

Democracy substitutes election by the incompetent many for appointment by the corrupt few. George Bernard Shaw
That one I fully agree with

The next one was something I disagree with (mostly) with the exception of when as now the other quote applies!

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. Winston Churchill

No it wasn’t. The plot was to stave off leaving the EU not stop membership.

Don’t be so silly. You are so blinkered it’s frightening.

UKIP were killing the Tories. Cameron had to reach out. But he never believed in a million Sundays, with the entire establishment and government behind him, with more money, 40 years of history, project fear that he would ever lose.

Arrogance.

It’s an Eton trait. Well a public school boy trait but eton more. They are never wrong. The answer to kill off the Europe question within the Tory party was to win the referendum and put it to bed for a generation or 3 and by then it would be impossible.

He never thought he would lose.

You are dumb my friend. Dumb when it comes to Tories and their agenda.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

Whoosh is right but it transcends mere political parties.

Having fell for the tories agenda, what are you? Transcend isn't the right word. Brexit is grubby and contrived and about appealing to the publics basest instincts, including bigotry in blaming others, who contribute most to our communities, like eu migrants, for our own self inflicted malaise. You, my friend, in voting for brexit, and supporting it are dumb, very dumb, and have damaged this country in ways your progeny will remember you for for several generations. What, exactly, did it take to make you not see what the EU gives the UK, how much more it can be in it than on its own?

 

[oldgroaner]

Clarity Corbyn style

Wow. If only they could have predicted these forecasts in 1993 we could have prepared for the bank crisis 15 years in the future!

Why didn’t they do that? I’m gutted. It would have saved so much misery. Tut tut. Sleeping on the job I suppose. Or maybe they were too busy playing with their tamogachis?

The key word is could. Could. They have no more clue of the future than anyone else.

Anything could happen. Could being the operative word.

Are we prepared? No. How can we be? We have been programmed to believe leaving the EU is going to be a disaster.

As is said by many in here. We can always rejoin if it is. But why not see if we can make a go of it? Why not honour the democratic process?

Oh yes. We’re not allowed free will.

When did the spineless, simpering ones get to rule us despite democracy?

You asked this

Why not honour the democratic process?.

Because there wasn't one, was there?the result was unlawfully obtained and void.

And then you came out with a classic inversion
"
Anything could happen. Could being the operative word.

Are we prepared? No. How can we be? We have been programmed to believe leaving the EU is going to be a disaster.

Brexit was sold to the public with "We could" and "lets"wasn't it?

and Boris Johnson stood in front of the bus lying through his teeth
This is from his Book "lend me Your ears"

You were lied to and they are still taking advantage because you can't accept you were gullible.
No one has programmed you into believing leaving the EU will be a disaster.
It's obvious to anyone who engages their brain even momentarily, and living in a dreamworld won't change that so obvious fact.

You have confused your Brainwashed state with "Free" will

 

[Woosh]

JRM is changing his view on the backstop to less hostile. TM may win after all.

Found this:

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/nov/09/mystic-mogg-jacob-rees-mogg-willam-predicts-brexit-plans

In the spring of 1997, shortly before Tony Blair took power, William Rees-Mogg, ex-editor of the Times, leading Eurosceptic, pinstriped self-publicist and father of Jacob, published a book that claimed to see the future of the world. The Sovereign Individual: The Coming Economic Revolution and How to Survive and Prosper in It opened with a quote from Tom Stoppard’s play Arcadia: “The future is disorder.”

For 380 breathless pages, Lord Rees-Mogg and a co-author, James Dale Davidson, an American investment guru and conservative propagandist, predicted that digital technology would make the world hugely more competitive, unequal and unstable. Societies would splinter. Taxes would be evaded. Government would gradually wither away. “By 2010 or thereabouts,” they wrote, welfare states “will simply become unfinanceable”. In such a harsh world, only the most talented, self-reliant, technologically adept person – “the sovereign individual” – would thrive.