PART TWO:
AVIATION
Worst case:
Without legal measures being taken by both sides before March 29, flights between Britain and European destinations could be disrupted when the UK leaves the bloc. Some lobbyists have even suggested that air traffic could be grounded, although that claim is heavily disputed. Flights from the UK to other destinations could also be affected if the right to fly is based on an existing EU-wide agreement.
Best case:
The European Commission announced yesterday that it would table legislation in the new year to allow British airlines access to its airspace and airports for up to 12 months, but with restrictions on transit flights. The British government has prepared the legislation necessary to reciprocate. Both sides say they are now reasonably confident that disruption can be kept to a minimum.
Unknown factor:
The UK’s flying rights to countries such as India, Israel and Vietnam are based on European Union agreements. These will have to be renegotiated and ratified by March to prevent potential disruption. Any EU dispensations will also be temporary and Britain will have to negotiate a long-term aviation deal with the EU.
TRADE DEALS
Worst case:
About 40 of the UK’s trade deals with countries outside Europe are dependent on its membership of the bloc and will fall away in the event of no deal. They include important export markets such as South Korea, Canada and South Africa. The government said last October that these would be transferred into bilateral agreements in time for March in case of no deal. However, just one trading partner, Switzerland, has so far formally agreed to replicate its EU deal for Britain after Brexit. If this process is not completed by March 29 then British exporters could find themselves suddenly paying World Trade Organisation tariffs in key markets, disrupting trade and putting Britain at a significant competitive disadvantage.
Best case:
A number of countries, including Canada and South Africa, have committed to replicating their trade deals by the March deadline even if they have not yet been formally agreed.
Unknown factor:
Until they are published we will not know whether Britain’s trading partners have forced concessions as the price of getting the deals agreed in time. International trade negotiations are unsentimental and, given Britain’s weak negotiating position, the new deals could be less favourable than the current arrangements.
MEDICINE
Worst case:
Every month 37 million packs of medicine enter the UK from the rest of the EU and the pharmaceutical industry is spending hundreds of millions of pounds on extra warehouses to stockpile supplies. However, there is a shortage of the cold storage needed to house modern biological medicines. Delays crossing the Channel are considered the biggest risk to medicine supplies and if disruption continues then stocks built up to last six weeks may not be enough.
Best case:
This is an area of contingency planning that has had the most attention, and early-warning systems are in place to identify shortages before they become critical. The EU would also not want to see drug shortages — and the complex pharmaceutical supply chain would affect drug availability in other European countries.
Unknown factor: Stockpiling plans have been based on normal levels of demand but such supplies could run out much faster if patients try to hoard medicines in fear they could run out. This is why the government has issued rules to allow ministers to control what pharmacies can supply in a worst-case scenario.
TRAVEL
Worst case:
British travellers who want to hire a car in Europe could be turned away unless they have a £5.50 international driving licence that must be applied for in advance from a post office; passengers could also be refused travel if they have less than six months on their passport and will need a US-style visa waiver. The maximum stay for a UK visitor will be three months. Anyone wishing to take a pet will need to make preparations up to four months in advance. Britons travelling to the EU will no longer be covered by pan-European healthcare that allows them to be treated in hospitals free of charge. Hefty mobile phone roaming charges may return.
Best case:
Car rental firms may choose not to rigidly enforce the rules. The government is also hopeful that eventually the EU will recognise Britain as a “listed third country” for pet passports which would result in little change to the current arrangements. Ministers have brought forward legislation to allow the European healthcare insurance card to continue to operate in the UK after Brexit and are hoping that other EU countries will reciprocate. Ministers have also said that in the case of a no-deal Brexit the government would legislate to cap roaming surcharges at £45 per month.
Unknown factor:
Areas such as immigration control and access to healthcare are decided at a national level so the UK will have to negotiate reciprocal deals with each of the 27 member states. These could vary by country, causing confusion for travellers.
