Excellent article (completely ON-topic) about Brexit - the current situation.
I realise some of your are not interested in the facts - so you can skip this.
(split into a few posts as there is a limit to size)
PART ONE:
"There are only 45 parliamentary working days before Britain leaves the European Union on March 29.
In that time MPs and peers have the power to set the terms of the country’s departure by either endorsing
Theresa May’s Brexit deal or setting an alternative course.
If they don’t, Britain will still leave the EU but without a deal and in a manner with no precedent. That is not to say Britain and Europe have not planned for such an outcome.
Thousands of man-hours in Whitehall and Brussels have been spent war-gaming scenarios and drawing up contingency plans to minimise disruption resulting from the end of 40 years of political, legal and economic co-operation. There is only so much that can be done, however, because neither side has an accurate idea of what it will face.
To opponents of Brexit a
no-deal scenario would be little short of Armageddon. Supermarket shelves would empty, sterling would crash, firms would go out of business and patients would be denied life-saving medication.
Supporters accept that there will be disruption but it would be temporary and mitigated by new legal freedoms and opportunities born of being completely outside the EU’s orbit.
So what are the most realistic best and worst-case scenarios for individuals, businesses and sectors of the economy, and, as importantly, what are the factors that each side cannot plan for?
FREIGHT TRANSPORT
Worst case:
At present an unlimited number of hauliers based in the UK can ship goods across the EU and about 38,000 UK-registered goods vehicles, carrying 20 million tonnes of freight a year, travel to the continent. Without a deal operators may have to apply for an international road haulage permit for each vehicle and Britain’s quota is only 4,000. The Department for Transport has announced plans for a “lorry lottery” to allocate the permits and business leaders have warned that the shortfall would result in severe disruption to cross-channel trade.
Hauliers may find it hard to get a permit to deliver freight to the Continent.
Best case:
The EU has announced it will ensure that freight transport can continue in the immediate aftermath of a no-deal Brexit to limit the impact on 50 million tonnes of freight that travels from Europe to the UK. Britain has secured membership of the Common Transit Convention after Brexit, which means that hauliers will need permits only for their end destination, not the countries through which they pass.
Unknown factor:
Bilateral transport agreements cannot be negotiated until after Brexit and no one knows how long these will take.
CITIZENS’ RIGHTS
Worst case:
The UK has said it will guarantee the rights of the EU citizens living in Britain broadly in line with the commitments already made in the withdrawal agreement. However, without a deal the UK is reliant on each EU member state reciprocating.
The European Commission has urged all countries to “take measures so that all UK nationals will continue to be considered as legal residents of that member state without interruption”. Some conceivably might choose not to, or offer less generous terms than those offered by Britain.
Best case:
Members states move swiftly to provide legal certainty and the same rights to all British citizens living in their jurisdictions. Most countries are putting legislation into effect to ensure that happens.
Unknown factor:
Pensions, social security payments and the healthcare of expats are also affected by Brexit. UK citizens may find that not all their existing rights are safeguarded in a no-deal scenario but that will vary on a country by country basis.
AGRICULTURE
Worst case:
Exports of food and drink from the UK to Europe are worth £13.2 billion a year, so any disruption to trade could be devastating for British farmers. In 2014, 82 per cent of the UK’s total exported meat and 75 per cent of its dairy produce went to the EU. This means that any delays could rapidly slow the entire supply chain in both directions, forcing Europeans to source food elsewhere and putting farmers’ livelihoods at risk. This is especially true in Northern Ireland where food, beverages and tobacco account for 49 per cent of the cross-border manufacturing trade, and a quarter of all milk produced in the province is exported for processing south of the border. About 90 per cent of Welsh lamb exports go to Europe. Outside the single market all food and agricultural products crossing between Britain and Europe would, by law, be subject to veterinary and food safety checks. In a no-deal scenario the UK would need to hire more vets to process export health certificates proving that food and livestock comply with the appropriate EU standards and regulations.
Best case:
It is unlikely that the EU would want to impose draconian checks in the short-term as it would damage consumers in a tangible and dramatic way. They are more likely to quickly list the UK as a third country to ensure there is no abrupt ceasing of imports in either direction. However, it is hard for the EU to say that it probably will not impose checks, for fear that it could incentivise Conservative ministers to push for a “managed no deal”.
Unknown factor:
Even if it is in Britain’s and the EU’s interests to avert checks initially, that may not be sustainable in the medium term if regulations and standards diverge. Both the UK and EU member states have a shortage of vets to process export health certificates. The Dutch government has used the bloc’s rules on free movement to recruit staff from Eastern Europe. The UK cannot do the same."
TO BE CONTINUED