Brexit, for once some facts.

[flecc]

It would certainly help if the financially weaker could devalue their own currency but unfortunately that would necisatate two distinct currencies.

Of course there would have to be two currencies but not by going back to their old currencies. Just a secondary currency introduced which could have different levels aginst the euro while enabling a return to the euro once alignment is achieved.

As AK has said, all that's really necessary is for the weaker members to clean up their act. They are in fact very rich and successful economies, but damaged by corruption and mismanagement.

If the Italian establishment ran Germany, that would be a basket case too. Conversely, if Italy was as law and regulation abiding as Germany, they'd have a very successful economy.
.

 

[Zlatan]

Of course there would have to be two currencies but not by going back to their old currencies. Just a secondary currency introduced which could have different levels aginst the euro while enabling a return to the euro once alignment is achieved.

As AK has said, all that's really necessary is for the weaker members to clean up their act. They are in fact very rich and successful economies, but damaged by corruption and mismanagement.

If the Italian establishment ran Germany, that would be a basket case too. Conversely, if Italy was as law and regulation abiding as the Germany, they'd have a very successful economy.
.

That's only fiddling with the issue. The big problem for euro is simple fact it is not a centralised fiscal system. Taxes benefits etc etc are collected centrally in USA distributed accordingly. Prevents spiralling down of poor performers. Eg. A firm goes bust in Alabama, its work force are effectively paid from taxes on California. In effect its a redistribution of wealth. In case of Greece they simply rely on short term hand outs with conditions. (ie Austerity) Folk in Alabama can jump on a bus and work in California with no language issues. It's a centralised work force. EU is not.
EU needs to be a centralised system with one Sovereign control. It's members will not give up their control to let system work.
It (the Euro) is doomed one way or other long term.
EU contains 28 automonous Countries with 28 disparate fiscal policies. USA has just one. Yes, the individual states have lots of freedom within set limits but ultimately answer to a single government. Personally don't think the half way EU is trying to operate actually can.
I, d actually support the a complete change in system to become a full USE, with a single fiscal policy, central taxes and centralised welfare but that in reality is not on offer.
USA went to war with itself to get it.

 

[oldgroaner]

That's only fiddling with the issue. The big problem for euro is simple fact it is not a centralised fiscal system. Taxes benefits etc etc are collected centrally in USA distributed accordingly. Prevents spiralling down of poor performers. Eg. A firm goes bust in Alabama, its work force are effectively paid from taxes on California. In effect its a redistribution of wealth. In case of Greece they simply rely on short term hand outs with conditions. (ie Austerity) Folk in Alabama can jump on a bus and work in California with no language issues. It's a centralised work force. EU is not.
EU needs to be a centralised system with one Sovereign control. It's members will not give up their control to let system work.
It is doomed one way or other long term.

You have just lauded the benefits of a European Super State!
Without a doubt the very same nonsensical arguments were put forward by the individual German states before they merged under Prussian leadership.

 

[Woosh]

Of course there would have to be two currencies

The idea that competitive devaluation will help dealing with budget deficit is often incorrect. You need to have spare production capacity to take advantage of the lower value of your currency.
that solution is worse than quantity easing which benefits the vast majority in different ways.

 

[Zlatan]

Not sure what's funny about that OG but each to his own.
And yes, I have put forward an argument for a superstate. It's that or 28 disparate countries. There really is no half way solution as I m fairly sure time will demonstrate.The EU should have remained simply a trading block as was originally intended. It should not have become a political entity.The Euro should never have been introduced until EU was a single superstate. It was premature. Many ecomists said so at time and the argument is still true.
Its like a child taking out a mortgage before it has either the cash to pay instalments or independence .

 

[Zlatan]

The idea that competitive devaluation will help dealing with budget deficit is often incorrect. You need to have spare production capacity to take advantage of the lower value of your currency.
that solution is worse than quantity easing which benefits the vast majority in different ways.

The devaluation provides stimulus to get over production. Devaluation fosters inward investment from abroad again helping stimulate production.
Devaluation promotes tourism and hence increases capital. Its exactly the mechanism Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal were robbed of in 1999. Well it was bought off them. When the money (,credit in Greece,,) ran out that's when problems surfaced. They have been bought off again. What next time? As explained in earlier post Italy is a ticking fiscal bomb. (it will dwarf the 2008 collapse if it implodes)

 

[oldgroaner]

Not sure what's funny about that OG but each to his own.
And yes, I have put forward an argument for a superstate. It's that or 28 disparate countries. There really is no half way solution as I m fairly sure time will demonstrate.The EU should have remained simply a trading block as was originally intended. It should not have become a political entity.The Euro should never have been introduced until EU was a single superstate. It was premature. Many ecomists said so at time and the argument is still true.
Its like a child taking out a mortgage before it has either the cash to pay instalments or independence .

The EU was always intended to be a superstate right from the start
Your last paragraph describes the UK's situation after brexit very accurately.
Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

 

[Woosh]

The devaluation provides stimulus to get over production. Devaluation fosters inward investment from abroad again helping stimulate production.
Devaluation promotes tourism and hence increases capital. Its exactly the mechanism Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal were robbed of in 1999. Well it was bought off them. When the money (,credit in Greece,,) ran out that's when problems surfaced. They have been bought off again. What next time? As explained in earlier post Italy is a ticking fiscal bomb. (it will dwarf the 2008 collapse if it implodes)

zlatan, the Pound was effectively devalued by about 13% after the referendum.
Did we export more? if you count exports in Pounds, yes, so it seems. If you use an international basket of currencies or the Euro as a yardstick then no, we haven't because we need to sell 13% more Pounds just to remain static. The net result of referendum devaluation is that our GDP ranking in the world goes from 4th place to 5th, now firmly behind France.
Devaluation is not a replacement for a proper industrial and skill strategy.
The point about helping Greece to cope with debts is debt reduction, that's a fiscal transfer, easier if the Eurozone is a superstate.

 

[flecc]

And yes, I have put forward an argument for a superstate.

Agreed, and that is what the EU is working towards. The EU could never have begun as a modern superstate of course, they have to develop over time, just as the USA did. Meanwhile there's problems which will gradually be dealt with.

Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Treaty of Rome's ambitions will similarly take time.
.

 

[oldtom]

Will hard/no deal 'Brexit' improve or exacerbate this situation?



Tom

 

[Zlatan]

Will hard/no deal 'Brexit' improve or exacerbate this situation?

View attachment 26172

Tom

Personally think they are not related. Necessity for food banks at any level merely points to society not working properly.
China has to be applauded for lifting millions out poverty. Don't think measures they have used could be replicated in or out the EU.
Its not as tho EU has eradicated poverty in EU, look at Greece.
Seems to me every time its mentioned EU have not improved our lot socially europhiles say its responsibility of individual countries. Yet on other hand they claim situation will be worse outside EU.

 

[Woosh]

Will hard/no deal 'Brexit' improve or exacerbate this situation?

if it does, not much.
as zlatan said, 'Necessity for food banks at any level merely points to society not working properly. ' - I agree with him.
the use of food banks increases over the years for many reasons:

- more organisations help to collect and distribute unsold food rather than letting the latter to go to landfill.
- people lose their inhibition regarding joining food banks.
- more collection points than before.
- more choice, better quality of stuff given out.

I wouldn't mind using food bank myself if I see it would otherwise go to landfill.

 

[oldgroaner]

If that damages trade it's hard to see how things can't be worse, that should be obvious even to you

Personally think they are not related. Necessity for food banks at any level merely points to society not working properly.
China has to be applauded for lifting millions out poverty. Don't think measures they have used could be replicated in or out the EU.
Its not as tho EU has eradicated poverty in EU, look at Greece.
Seems to me every time its mentioned EU have not improved our lot socially europhiles say its responsibility of individual countries. Yet on other hand they claim situation will be worse outside EU.

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

 

[oldgroaner]

Civilised nations don't create beggars

if it does, not much.
as zlatan said, 'Necessity for food banks at any level merely points to society not working properly. ' - I agree with him.
the use of food banks increases over the years for many reasons:

- more organisations help to collect and distribute unsold food rather than letting the latter to go to landfill.
- people lose their inhibition regarding joining food banks.
- more collection points than before.
- more choice, better quality of stuff given out.

I wouldn't mind using food bank myself if I see it would otherwise go to landfill.

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

 

[flecc]

Seems to me every time its mentioned EU have not improved our lot socially europhiles say its responsibility of individual countries. Yet on other hand they claim situation will be worse outside EU.

The individual countries have the management of the economy, the EU can only give grants, it can't control the details of the spending. That's the difference.

But the EU grants can and do make a huge difference, as West Wales is now realising. Recipients of a generous annual grant which greatly improved their standards, they foolishly voted Leave. Now they are anxiously trying to find out if our government will make good the same huge amounts they got from the EU. All they are getting so far are some vague reassurances, and I'm betting they will have to get used to disappointment and pulling their belts in.
.

 

[wheeler]

i

I wouldn't mind using food bank myself if I see it would otherwise go to landfill.

I'm not sure that you understand how food banks work.

Would you be happy to be identified as "in crisis" by a care professional in order to be given a food bank voucher so that you could prevent food going to landfill?

As food banks require donations of non-perishable, in-date food I don't think they save anything from landfill, however they do save people from family breakdown, falling into crime, housing loss and health problems.

wheeler

 

[oyster]

From what I have read over the past two years, one defining characteristic of sovereignty is the freedom to make deals and trade with whomsoever we wish.

When Trump spouts 'Trade with Iran and you won't trade with US' it is impinging on our sovereignty.

I'd rather argue that from within the EU than as one of many countries each of which can so readily be picked off one at a time.

 

[Woosh]

Civilised nations don't create beggars

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they are not beggars - they are referred.
Beggars are those who do not do any normal work, 6 of them sit in around Sainsbury's in London Road, Southend, within 100 yards of one another, 3 on each side of the road, asking if you have any change.

 

[Woosh]

I'm not sure that you understand how food banks work.

Would you be happy to be identified as "in crisis" by a care professional in order to be given a food bank voucher so that you could prevent food going to landfill?
wheeler

in the context of perishable food.

 

[wheeler]

asking if you have any change.

Just tell them "No change, I've still got the big house, the Range Rover, sports car, and yacht"

wheeler