Brexit, for once some facts.

Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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Then I suggest a visit to Specsavers would be a good idea.
there is no better way to bridge the divide and avoid the race to the bottom.
 

Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
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Just in case you missed it......

The first, and biggest, concession is buried in paragraph 49 of the 15-page report published early on Friday morning. Its implications will be anything but quiet in the weeks to come, for it undermines the prime minister’s previous insistence that Britain will be leaving the single market.

It states clearly: “In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union.” In other words, the UK may not be a member of the single market, or have any direct ability to shape its rules in future, but it could yet have to play by them in perpetuity.

Much will be made of the “in the absence of agreed solutions” caveat, yet what it means in practice is that the UK hopes to flesh out this pledge through a wider free trade agreement with the EU. If the other 27 members were reluctant to allow any wriggle room in the first phase of talks, they are even less likely to budge now that this principle is established as a back-stop.

When the agreement was first drafted on Monday, there was much concern that the promise of maintaining regulatory “alignment” might only apply to Northern Ireland, but the Democratic Unionist party has succeeded in removing any ambiguity and forced Downing Street to spell out that alignment stretches right across the Irish sea.

“The United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom,” says the text now – unless, by some miracle, the Northern Ireland assembly were to decide it did, after all, want to be cut off.

Based upon May/Davis negotiations so far,the first paragraph will be the deal....we will maintain full alignment with the customs union and the single market....May was hoping to restrict this just to Northern Ireland but the DUP saw through that and it now applies to the whole of the UK.
With this deal the EU dont need to negotiate any further,they just need to wait for the fall back position,which is pretty much staying in the EU,which is what the EU wants.
Despite the assurances that our negotiating position was strong,it wasnt,we have agreed to all the demands of the EU,no wonder Tusk and Juncker looked pleased with themselves.
KudosDave
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,049
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It states clearly: “In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union.” In other words, the UK may not be a member of the single market, or have any direct ability to shape its rules in future, but it could yet have to play by them in perpetuity.
I read the publication from top to bottom this morning thanks to the link that shemozzle provided and my understanding of it is quite different.
Firstly, the agreements contained in the paper are subject to successful negotiation, a lot of uncertainties would have been removed by then and secondly, there is a fair bit of latitude in the word 'alignment'.
I suggest you look at the Swiss model, they are aligned to the SM and yet enjoy a fair amount of freedom in choosing how to implement new EU directives, at the same time, are able to do deals with other countries.
The EU has just concluded an FTA with Japan. It is now the most connected market place in the world. It's in our best interest to stay as integrated in this market place as possible while not joining the US of E.
 
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oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
It seems to me that the 'Brexidiots' have been 'had over' or as the vernacular has it in my part of the UK, 'Done up like a kipper!'

I shall wait to see how this plan is fleshed out as we move towards 2019, but I just get the feeling that, regardless of how it is spun and prettied up for the masses via the usual propaganda channels, it won't just be the clowns who voted for secession who will lose out, everybody loses as a result of this surrender by May.

It must be another piece of magic that allows an insoluble Irish border problem on the 7th December to simply disappear on the morning of the 8th.......where did that problem go? How was it solved? Can everybody just get rid of their problems in life simply by ignoring them?

Is she still Prime Minister?

Tom
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
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Can everybody just get rid of their problems in life simply by ignoring them?
yes when the problem is mostly artificial.
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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suggest you look at the Swiss model, they are aligned to the SM and yet enjoy a fair amount of freedom in choosing how to implement new EU directives, at the same time, are able to do deals with other countries.
So did we
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,049
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What race and what bottom?
the race to the bottom: when you have regulatory divergence.
hard brexiters would like regulatory divergence. For example, the hard brexiters prefer turning the UK into some kind of low regulation tax haven for mutinationals, family trusts and the likes while the EU looks for ways of taxing them or stopping them avoiding taxes.
soft brexiters want regulatory convergence, maintaining the same standard as the EU.
TM agrees on regulatory convergence, that's the better choice for the many.
 
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Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
8,611
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Ireland
Just in case you missed it......

The first, and biggest, concession is buried in paragraph 49 of the 15-page report published early on Friday morning. Its implications will be anything but quiet in the weeks to come, for it undermines the prime minister’s previous insistence that Britain will be leaving the single market.

It states clearly: “In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union.” In other words, the UK may not be a member of the single market, or have any direct ability to shape its rules in future, but it could yet have to play by them in perpetuity.

Much will be made of the “in the absence of agreed solutions” caveat, yet what it means in practice is that the UK hopes to flesh out this pledge through a wider free trade agreement with the EU. If the other 27 members were reluctant to allow any wriggle room in the first phase of talks, they are even less likely to budge now that this principle is established as a back-stop.

When the agreement was first drafted on Monday, there was much concern that the promise of maintaining regulatory “alignment” might only apply to Northern Ireland, but the Democratic Unionist party has succeeded in removing any ambiguity and forced Downing Street to spell out that alignment stretches right across the Irish sea.

“The United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom,” says the text now – unless, by some miracle, the Northern Ireland assembly were to decide it did, after all, want to be cut off.

Based upon May/Davis negotiations so far,the first paragraph will be the deal....we will maintain full alignment with the customs union and the single market....May was hoping to restrict this just to Northern Ireland but the DUP saw through that and it now applies to the whole of the UK.
With this deal the EU dont need to negotiate any further,they just need to wait for the fall back position,which is pretty much staying in the EU,which is what the EU wants.
Despite the assurances that our negotiating position was strong,it wasnt,we have agreed to all the demands of the EU,no wonder Tusk and Juncker looked pleased with themselves.
KudosDave
Despite themselves, the DUP will have done the UK a great service. In time , I hope the majority in mainland Britain will agree.
Is it not interesting to note that the wave of anti Irish hysteria has now abated. This proves that it was orchestrated.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,054
30,510
It's in our best interest to stay as integrated in this market place as possible while not joining the US of E.
TM agrees on regulatory convergence, that's the better choice for the many.
She does now, completely abandoning her Brexit means Brexit stance.

All the indications are that there won't be anything like Brexit, we'll still be in the EU in all but name. Eventually we probably won't be alone in that position, since not all the 26 will join a future US of E, but long before that is reached there will in effect be division into a two speed Europe.
.
 
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Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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It seems to me that the 'Brexidiots' have been 'had over' or as the vernacular has it in my part of the UK, 'Done up like a kipper!'

I shall wait to see how this plan is fleshed out as we move towards 2019, but I just get the feeling that, regardless of how it is spun and prettied up for the masses via the usual propaganda channels, it won't just be the clowns who voted for secession who will lose out, everybody loses as a result of this surrender by May.

It must be another piece of magic that allows an insoluble Irish border problem on the 7th December to simply disappear on the morning of the 8th.......where did that problem go? How was it solved? Can everybody just get rid of their problems in life simply by ignoring them?

Is she still Prime Minister?

Tom
It is the second best option, , keeping to EU norms. The best option A IMHO ( or not so humble) would keeping to EU norms while having a place at the table.
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
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I just hate all the hassle and expense to basically stay where we are now,without a seat at the table.
that seat at the table costs about half of our current net contribution plus that bill of £40 billions.
Best to pay half just for access, we don't have much to say on EU integration aims anyway.
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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that seat at the table costs about half of our current net contribution plus that bill of £40 billions.
Best to pay half just for access, we don't have much to say on EU integration aims anyway.
.. not the bill of 40billion, if the UK were in it wouldn't be paying it. There is a lot more discussed around the table than European integration, and does the UK not have a view on that also? . In future its opinion, council, its approval will not be sought. If it going to maintain regulatory convergence or at least avoid divergence, it needs to be cognisant of what's going on, but without the influence to affect it.
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,049
16,741
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
.. not the bill of 40billion, if the UK were in it wouldn't be paying it. There is a lot more discussed around the table than European integration, and does the UK not have a view on that also? . In future its opinion, council, its approval will not be sought. If it going to maintain regulatory convergence or at least avoid divergence, it needs to be cognisant of what's going on, but without the influence to affect it.
I think you read too much into the word 'convergence'. It should be read as the UK agrees not racing to the bottom. The world economy in 10 year time will be much different, China will be top, ASEAN second, USA third, then EU27. We may still align to EU regulations on goods but possibly less on services and would have achieved trade gains outside the EU sphere.
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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the race to the bottom: when you have regulatory divergence.
hard brexiters would like regulatory divergence. For example, the hard brexiters prefer turning the UK into some kind of low regulation tax haven for mutinationals, family trusts and the likes while the EU looks for ways of taxing them or stopping them avoiding taxes.
soft brexiters want regulatory convergence, maintaining the same standard as the EU.
TM agrees on regulatory convergence, that's the better choice for the many.
But a very poor second to cancelling Brexit outright.
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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and would have achieved trade gains outside the EU sphere.
Really? making and selling what exactly and funded owned and managed by more Foreigners?
There is absolutely no reason to assume that the British Government will be any less clueless on protecting the economy than it is now, and as for investing in industry? unless they can sell it abroad there will be no industrial investment, just a closing down sale.
Outside of the EU its a case of the "loonies taking over the Asylum"
We failed before we entered the EEC and we will again after leaving the EU, till we get back in again.
There is absolutely no evidence available to lead to a different outcome.
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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She does now, completely abandoning her Brexit means Brexit stance.

All the indications are that there won't be anything like Brexit, we'll still be in the EU in all but name. Eventually we probably won't be alone in that position, since not all the 26 will join a future US of E, but long before that is reached there will in effect be division into a two speed Europe.
.
The Eloi and the Morlocks, guess which side we have picked?
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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As reported in the "Independent"
"
The European Commission’s negotiators have cast doubt on Theresa May’s ability to take the UK out of the single market and customs union if she follows through on her solution to the Northern Ireland border issue.

An internal EU communiqué from its negotiators to the EU27 member states of the European Council says it is difficult to see how Ms May could still be planning on leaving the two institutions given what she agreed in the early hours of this morning.

The Prime Minister told reporters in Brussels this morning that Britain would still be leaving the single market and customs union, as she had pledged in her Lancaster House speech at the start of the year."

What the hell is the truth here?
 
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