Brexit, for once some facts.

PeterL

Esteemed Pedelecer
Aug 19, 2017
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Dundee
Yes, true.. but we're not talking about the EU are we, we're talking about the custom's union and the single market, which is not the EU.

Splitting hairs?

I'm not ignoring anything, I'm just saying that we've committed to lots of things. Deciding to leave the EU doesn't suddenly remove our legal commitment to things we've signed up to in the future. We have to buy out of them, or stay in. That's the nature of the law.

if I move, it doesn't get me out of my phone contract, or my gym membership, or my car lease. All of which are forward spending commitments I've signed up to.

We've said we want out of the EU, so we have to settle our account before we leave, which means paying out of all the deals we've agreed to be a part of.
Of course we need to settle our bills and have said we will, Englishman and his word. But, when we move house we don't start looking for the new home and the job that goes with the need to move after we have settled all outstanding matters with the previous one? I appreciate that I won't get my money for the sale of the house until the bills are paid but that won't stop me preparing for my move - there might be a train crash but not usually the case. Equally, those bills that need to be paid, certainly in this case are fairly complicated and need to be negotiated.
 
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Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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there are many reasons why the EU27 needs to keep the UK 'in the customs union' zone.
1. existing quotas. If the UK is out of the EU zone, quotas have to be renegotiated because of the split and reduction in trade.
2. Trade weight. The EU28 accounts for roughly 20% of world trade, EU27 15%. This is going to be very difficult for the EU27 to rebuild their world weighting.
3. Budget. Besides the net contribution that the UK pays, or will be paying if we remain in the single market, the EU collects 80% of import duty collected by the UK. If we are outside the single market, 15% of the EU programs will have to be chopped.
Yes and there many many more, and not just money. The EU wishes to retain the UK as a full member of the EU 28, and thinks the UK is bonkers for choosing to leave on such flimsy grounds. The gapping hole in the security of Europe .. and of the UK also is an equally valid reason.
Reverting to your first point, one of the first points of agreement between the UK and EU was that they were prepared to offer a full pro rata division of quotas, however the rest of the world is unhappy with that, so the EU would therefore retain all and the UK nothing. In my posting about baby milkfoods, the same scenario with China exists!
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,467
16,925
Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
Reverting to your first point, one of the first points of agreement between the UK and EU was that they were prepared to offer a full pro rata division of quotas, however the rest of the world is unhappy with that, so the EU would therefore retain all and the UK nothing.
That may be one thing that the EU and UK can agree on.
We need less quota on NZ lamb than NZ needs their quota to send their lamb to the EU.
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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Of course we need to settle our bills and have said we will, Englishman and his word. But, when we move house we don't start looking for the new home and the job that goes with the need to move after we have settled all outstanding matters with the previous one? I appreciate that I won't get my money for the sale of the house until the bills are paid but that won't stop me preparing for my move - there might be a train crash but not usually the case. Equally, those bills that need to be paid, certainly in this case are fairly complicated and need to be negotiated.
The difference is that when changing house you will have agreed in writing to the amounts to be repaid on the mortgage from property 1etc and the monies owed on this will be held in trust by a solicitor as a third party and when you get the second mortgage, all the monies owed, as well as the solicitors fees, will be deducted, before you get your hands on the residue. In transactions between the uk and EU, there would be no trusted solicitor and at present no agreement as to what is due.
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
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ok, so give me an example of a treaty then that you think is far from clear or enforceable.
Danidl has pretty much summed this up. There is no provision in the 7 year budget where the issue of a member leaving has been mentioned. If the UK pays for 7 years, then it should follow that the UK will also benefit from EU spending for the full 7 years.
On pension, there is no provision to deal with members leaving. When is the pension contribution due? when the staff starts to get paid or before?
On loan guarantee: should the guarantee be paid upfront or when Ukraine can't pay?

In transactions between the uk and EU, there would be no trusted solicitor and at present no agreement as to what is due.
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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That may be one thing that the EU and UK can agree on.
We need less quota on NZ lamb than NZ needs their quota to send their lamb to the EU.
Perhaps the EU can then accept it's full quota, of lamb, and sell on a small bit to the UK, at a profit of course?
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
20,467
16,925
Southend on Sea
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Perhaps the EU can then accept it's full quota, of lamb, and sell on a small bit to the UK, at a profit of course?
that's exactly the reverse to the current situation. I understand we import at the moment cheap NZ lamb for domestic consumption and export our more expensive lamb to the EU27. After brexit, exports to EU27 may be hit by 30% tariff, we'll be forced to eat better meat!
 
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Danidl has pretty much summed this up. There is no provision in the 7 year budget where the issue of a member leaving has been mentioned. If the UK pays for 7 years, then it should follow that the UK will also benefit from EU spending for the full 7 years.
On pension, there is no provision to deal with members leaving. When is the pension contribution due? when the staff starts to get paid or before?
On loan guarantee: should the guarantee be paid upfront or when Ukraine can't pay?
I don't think you're talking about treaties then are you. You're talking about budget commitments, and I'll agree with you. We're signed up to a host of things with a huge range of benefits. Unpicking them is going to be a nightmare, but I can see it as logical that the EU wants considerable progress on how we're going to settle these financial commitments before it opens up its market to our country. Can you not see the logic in that?
 
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Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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Danidl has pretty much summed this up. There is no provision in the 7 year budget where the issue of a member leaving has been mentioned. If the UK pays for 7 years, then it should follow that the UK will also benefit from EU spending for the full 7 years.
On pension, there is no provision to deal with members leaving. When is the pension contribution due? when the staff starts to get paid or before?
On loan guarantee: should the guarantee be paid upfront or when Ukraine can't pay?
On the face of it, I can agree with that. If you pay you should be allowed play. There is a glitch, I think that a lot of EU programmes, specify that they would occur within EU member states and be subject to ecj arbitration.
If the UK modified their request so as to leave at the end of the budget cycle, then it would seem logical...
 

PeterL

Esteemed Pedelecer
Aug 19, 2017
998
172
Dundee
I don't think you're talking about treaties then are you. You're talking about budget commitments, and I'll agree with you. We're signed up to a host of things with a huge range of benefits. Unpicking them is going to be a nightmare, but I can see it as logical that the EU wants considerable progress on how we're going to settle these financial commitments before it opens up its market to our country. Can you not see the logic in that?
Let me try and answer that. We, that's the UK, are moving on to pastures new and there is a lot to do and prepare for. Why can't we talk about trade and such in parallel? One step at a time will take forever how one-sided is that?

No one is expecting the EU to sign a 'blank-cheque' but neither will we.
 
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Danidl

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that's exactly the reverse to the current situation. I understand we import at the moment cheap NZ lamb for domestic consumption and export our more expensive lamb to the EU27. After brexit, exports to EU27 may be hit by 30% tariff, we'll be forced to eat better meat!

Irish lamb is very sweet, and not frozen, but expensive compared to NZ stuff.
A question.. does the UK import this NZ lamb, as a member of the EU or on the basis of some other arrangement? If the former then does not that quota remain with the EU?
 
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Let me try and answer that. We, that's the UK, are moving on to pastures new and there is a lot to do and prepare for. Why can't we talk about trade and such in parallel? One step at a time will take forever how one-sided is that?

No one is expecting the EU to sign a 'blank-cheque' but neither will we.
We can agree that we are going to owe the EU money, yes? We're also the ones leaving aren't we, yes? So they set the terms, if they want us to agree the debt before they talk trade they can, if we don't like it we have to walk away. I think you're starting to realise we don't have any cards in this game.
 
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PeterL

Esteemed Pedelecer
Aug 19, 2017
998
172
Dundee
We can agree that we are going to owe the EU money, yes? We're also the ones leaving aren't we, yes? So they set the terms, if they want us to agree the debt before they talk trade they can, if we don't like it we have to walk away. I think you're starting to realise we don't have any cards in this game.
I'm not so sure that I am starting to realise that we have no cards to play. There are times when it seems like a loaded casino with just the one high-roller in the place. But, that's not the place I've walked into, or at least that was never my intention and like you say, we can walk away! Once the casino realise that, the odds will change or at least they will begin to butter us up rather than continue to play hardball?
 
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Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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I'm not so sure that I am starting to realise that we have no cards to play. There are times when it seems like a loaded casino with just the one high-roller in the place. But, that's not the place I've walked into, or at least that was never my intention and like you say, we can walk away! Once the casino realise that, the odds will change or at least they will begin to butter us up rather than continue to play hardball?
The uk can walk away in which case wto rules apply.
 
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