Will the transition from fossil fuels be similar to that from Petrol to Diesel?

[eclectic_bike]

We'll deal with the global warming issue as before, international conferences with resolutions but no firm agreed targets. After all, global warming is opening up those important northern waters, slashing navigation costs and accessing vast new oil reserves. This is a gift horse which will not be kicked in the mouth as witness the scramble to claim rights in that area by those powerful countries who want the ice to melt

Dealing with global warming as before is a recipe for disaster, as is pinning our national security on unstable suppliers. If global warming gets to the point of opening up new sea routes then atmospheric warming may well have started to release methane locked up in permafrost, a serious tipping point as CH4 has a global warming potential much higher than CO2. Sea level rise will also threaten low-lying populated areas more than it does now.

A gift horse that enables us to access and burn even more oil in this scenario is a going to be more like a Trojan horse.

 

[Ultra Motor]

I take your point about the drilling and so on but there seems to me to be an absurdity in the 0 emissions statement. People are now being led to believe that electric cars will solve our emission and future energy problems. Wow! No emissions! We can all drive as big a car as fast as we like and there is no penalty! We can all be green!

In the UK, we cannot even agree what type of power stations we will build, let alone build them. To maintain our present electricity supplies we need to invest £200bn over the next ten years. If we add electric cars into the equation, the power demands increase to a level that we could not meet even if the will was there.

Also, when the government starts losing revenue - it collects the best part of £30bn in fuel tax - how long before it imposes a levy on the juice for electric cars.

I don't think the transition from diesel/ petrol to electricity is a logical one at all. The inadequacies of the battery stymie it. What we need is to avoid the sort of quasi-religious argument that we Brits seem to love, the 'petrol bad electricity good' mode. Neither petrol nor electricity have the long term answers to our personal transportation needs as they stand.

My personal feeling is that the answer lies much more in changing our habits than in scrambling around for technology to maintain the status quo.

The people on this site, using low power electrics combined with pedal power are using a truly modern solution to at least part of the problem and its that kind of intelligent solution that is the future in my book.

Hi Lemmy

Compared to running a petrol car, looking at purely emmissions whilst running they are 0. But I appreciate this isn't where it ends and it can't be sold as 0 emissions full stop. Its just the comparison people make that nees clarification.

The government will find it very hard to add fuel duty to electric cars. Because electricity is set at 5%, that will probably never change. They only way they could levy it is through extra taxes on street side or car park located charge station.The other option is a 'pay by the mile' which would invovle huge expenditure but would also reward those who do less miles....

I also agree that a change in habit and switch to electric bicycles for shorter trips etc would be ideal. However we are a car nation, the infrastructure isn't right and until it gets easier and safer to cycle I don't think we will see a huge shift. For now, we need to get as many car drivers on e-bikes and i wholly support 20mph speed zones in residential and pedestrian areas. Before we know it e-bikes will be quicker and more convenient that cars in urban areas. But more importantly safer for the riders

 

[flecc]

Dealing with global warming as before is a recipe for disaster, as is pinning our national security on unstable suppliers. If global warming gets to the point of opening up new sea routes then atmospheric warming may well have started to release methane locked up in permafrost, a serious tipping point as CH4 has a global warming potential much higher than CO2. Sea level rise will also threaten low-lying populated areas more than it does now.

A gift horse that enables us to access and burn even more oil in this scenario is a going to be more like a Trojan horse.

I agree completely, but who will bet against political expediency. It's always won previously.

 

[eclectic_bike]

Also, when the government starts losing revenue - it collects the best part of £30bn in fuel tax - how long before it imposes a levy on the juice for electric cars...........

My personal feeling is that the answer lies much more in changing our habits than in scrambling around for technology to maintain the status quo.

The people on this site, using low power electrics combined with pedal power are using a truly modern solution to at least part of the problem and its that kind of intelligent solution that is the future in my book.

I don't think they will levy electricity as they will be unable to differentiate different electricity usage at home. They will inevitably introduce road pricing with differing charges based on CO2 emissions. The Government have already made tentative moves in this direction but there are massive problems of public acceptance.

Very much agree with your last point. Pedelecs are the sweet spot for making best use of electric power but the infrastructure to encourage mass take-up, i.e. cycle routes and charging points are just inadequate and are likely to remain so.

 

[eTim]

Environmentally friendly is a premium badge in itself and ecar consumers are probably those with a premium badge sat on their driveway.
If I was to commute by car I would be driving an extra 9,400 miles a year, at a leisurely pace that would use 783 gallons of petrol at a cost of £5000. It's not hard to see that having an ecar makes a lot of sense for some people.

What I'm most unsure about is how they are in winter, a cold misted up car isn't going to make many friends. Maybe you could fit an oil fired heater in the boot?

It would be interesting to know the market research that has/should have already been completed into the target market for the current crop of EV cars. It would be interesting to know the sales figures and where these vehicles are (or are not) going. I could only see these cars currently appealing to those with very large disposable incomes that live in cities who are environmentally conscious or go for the novelty factor and I guess this will leave vast swathes of the general public unworried by a potential EV car purchase.

Possibly similar to yourself, I own a gas guzzling 4x4 (Discovery 3) which would cost me a fortune to drive to work everyday (150 mile round trip) so I've offset this cost with a very efficient oilburner (Skoda Fabia), the D3 is relegated to leisure duties only when it is really required. But even if I lived in the city I would not consider an EV based purely on range and high initital cost and the fact that I would use the much cheaper Skoda for leisure journeys also, or a motorbike, or my ebikes and on that last point, EV cars do nothing to ease congestion in cities whereas 2 wheelers do. Lots of rich city dwellers may have a premium badge on the driveway, but I'm sure a lot are using two wheels or public transport to get to work to avoid congestion, rather than consider an EV.

So what is the target market?

 

[flecc]

Britain, France and the US lead the world in all things nuclear and it's easy to forget sometimes that for many years now, there have been warships and submarines sailing the oceans, fuelled by nuclear power plants.

And Russia, their BN800 design is the choice of the USA for longer term future use.

Chernobyl should not be allowed to detract from their achievements since that event was a staff failure to stick to procedures, not a technical fault. Not negligence though, they were trying to improve testing, but as ever, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. That RBMK nuclear reactor type is the most efficient in existence still, and the world's two largest power stations are both RBMKs. Now that they have been fully computer controlled I'd be happy to have a fleet of them.

And of course Russia doesn't only have nuclear warships, their icebreakers are nuclear as well.

 

[eclectic_bike]

I agree completely, but who will bet against political expediency. It's always won previously.

It will be a slow haul to win against vested interests and refusal to accept change. As with most cultural shifts we may have to wait until disaster is loudly knocking on the door before action is taking.

Authoritarian regimes like China don't have this problem which is why they are now the largest producer and user of solar panels and are investing massively in wind power.

You may remember in the 80's there was a series of well-publicised environmental issued that did spur public support but that was in a boom period for the economy.

 

[flecc]

It would be interesting to know the market research that has/should have already been completed into the target market for the current crop of EV cars. -------------- I could only see these cars currently appealing to those with very large disposable incomes that live in cities who are environmentally conscious or go for the novelty factor.

I'm sure a lot are using two wheels or public transport to get to work to avoid congestion, rather than consider an EV.

Whatever the target market, those will be the buyers, wealthy city dwellers wanting the novelty value and environmental cachet.

And many of them are on two wheels, some top bosses ride motorbikes to work in the centre and there are quite a few of the upper echelon who cycle too, including politicians of course.

 

[Straylight]

A case of out of sight - out of mind. Were a commercial manufacturer to propose a nuclear powered plane, there would be uproar...(propellar driven of course).

 

[flecc]

A case of out of sight - out of mind. Were a commercial manufacturer to propose a nuclear powered plane, there would be uproar...(propellar driven of course).

EasyProp to Lanzarote!

A nuclear powered Mars mission has been proposed by US scientists, the huge rocket powered by a continuous stream of nuclear explosions. Yes, really!

 

[eclectic_bike]

EasyProp to Lanzarote!

A nuclear powered Mars mission has been proposed by US scientists, the huge rocket powered by a continuous stream of nuclear explosions. Yes, really!

Yes, I remember that. Project Orion: Project Orion (nuclear propulsion) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Ultra Motor]

It would be interesting to know the market research that has/should have already been completed into the target market for the current crop of EV cars. It would be interesting to know the sales figures and where these vehicles are (or are not) going. I could only see these cars currently appealing to those with very large disposable incomes that live in cities who are environmentally conscious or go for the novelty factor and I guess this will leave vast swathes of the general public unworried by a potential EV car purchase.

Possibly similar to yourself, I own a gas guzzling 4x4 (Discovery 3) which would cost me a fortune to drive to work everyday (150 mile round trip) so I've offset this cost with a very efficient oilburner (Skoda Fabia), the D3 is relegated to leisure duties only when it is really required. But even if I lived in the city I would not consider an EV based purely on range and high initital cost and the fact that I would use the much cheaper Skoda for leisure journeys also, or a motorbike, or my ebikes and on that last point, EV cars do nothing to ease congestion in cities whereas 2 wheelers do. Lots of rich city dwellers may have a premium badge on the driveway, but I'm sure a lot are using two wheels or public transport to get to work to avoid congestion, rather than consider an EV.

So what is the target market?

Target market breaks into two I believe:
1) Early adopter, city lifestyle, 40+, disposable income
2) 'Eco-ist' 35+, concious of their environmental impact and already driving a low impact vehicle, but using a bicycle or similar too.

I heard a figure earlier that there are orders for over 27,000 of the Nissan Leaf...I can't say whether that was UK only or globally though

 

[flecc]

I heard a figure earlier that there are orders for over 27,000 of the Nissan Leaf...I can't say whether that was UK only or globally though

That's worldwide. The USA originally had 20,000 advance orders but many are now falling through for the reasons given on the link below. As at 23rd May, Leaf advance orders in Britain were 550 cars.

US position on Leaf deliveries

 

[Ultra Motor]

That's worldwide. The USA originally had 20,000 advance orders but many are now falling through for the reasons given on the link below. As at 23rd May, Leaf advance orders in Britain were 550 cars.

US position on Leaf deliveries

I thought 20,000 sounded a bit steep for the UK! Despite delays I know 4 people who have got theirs now and its quite cool seeing them whizzing around!

 

[flecc]

I thought 20,000 sounded a bit steep for the UK!

Yes, that would be 1% of all annual car sales here!

When Nissan launched the hugely popular Qashqai, the UK outstanding order tally reached 56,000 at one point with me in the queue, so the 550 Leaf orders here are coincidentally about 1% of that, some consolation at least.

 

[Ultra Motor]

Very true! I looked at a Qashqai once with a GF who was interested and went through 3 very unhelpful Nissan dealers. In the end she bought a Mini! What do you make of it? I thought it was cool and funky!

 

[flecc]

Very attractive in many ways Mark, comfortable though a bit soft handling and it's weight detracted from performance.

However, for me it had a flaw that became so irritating in the end that partly for that reason* I swapped it just short of 3 years old. It has a very high and wide centre console making one feel in a cockpit, no problem in itself, but the gearstick is mounted high on top of it, well to the rear of the usual position and worst of all, on the left hand side to favour left hand drive cars.

At 5' 6", to shift gear I had my arm towards horizontal, well out to the left hand side and to the rear from normal, and that made moving through the gear gate very difficult to get smooth. I've driven everything with wheels on the roads, from motorbikes to over 100 ton heavy transporters, including all sorts of weird things like having the accelerator between the brake and clutch and managed fine, but I never got used to that Qashqai gear lever position. Anyone buying one should be much taller than me so they can have the seat further back and be higher in relation to the stick, or buy an automatic.

They are launching a new version shortly so that might address this issue.

* The other reason to change was that the snow in recent years on my 14% home hill meant I needed a four wheel drive option to stay mobile. So I've now got a Suzuki SX4 SZ5 crossover, 3 mode drive, 2 wheel, 4 wheel intelligent or 4 wheel locked. Not as refined as the Quashqai, but good to drive, a great gearchange and a more sporty biased handling that suits me.

 

[Ultra Motor]

Very attractive in many ways Mark, comfortable though a bit soft handling and it's weight detracted from performance.

However, for me it had a flaw that became so irritating in the end that partly for that reason* I swapped it just short of 3 years old. It has a very high and wide centre console making one feel in a cockpit, no problem in itself, but the gearstick is mounted high on top of it, well to the rear of the usual position and worst of all, on the left hand side to favour left hand drive cars.

At 5' 6", to shift gear I had my arm towards horizontal, well out to the left hand side and to the rear from normal, and that made moving through the gear gate very difficult to get smooth. I've driven everything with wheels on the roads, from motorbikes to over 100 ton heavy transporters, including all sorts of weird things like having the accelerator between the brake and clutch and managed fine, but I never got used to that Qashqai gear lever position. Anyone buying one should be much taller than me so they can have the seat further back and be higher in relation to the stick, or buy an automatic.

They are launching a new version shortly so that might address this issue.

* The other reason to change was that the snow in recent years on my 14% home hill meant I needed a four wheel drive option to stay mobile. So I've now got a Suzuki SX4 SZ5 crossover, 3 mode drive, 2 wheel, 4 wheel intelligent or 4 wheel locked. Not as refined as the Quashqai, but good to drive, a great gearchange and a more sporty biased handling that suits me.

I think we are about the same height, so would have given me a headache too....although I must admit I'm an auto fan! I had a Suzuki as you describe for a day when I was in Cuba and was very impressed....good choice!

 

[lectureral]

US position on Leaf deliveries

It had not occurred to me that US owners would need to get a high (for them) voltage charging point. I do find it interesting, the variation one finds in a simple thing like electricity supply in different countries. The UK oddity, it seems to me, is the hulking great plug we use (compared to, say, the much more streamlined Swiss plug or the two-prong French plug (for lighting) at the same voltage as us). Of course one advantage in the US, given the low voltage there (I assume), is that they can use very lightweight plugs.

 

[flecc]

Yes, our 13 amp plug system has been acknowledged to be long overdue for revision. At least it was a vast improvement on the old situation in some of our homes with triple sockets, 2 amp 2 pin, 5 amp 3 pin and 15 amp 3 pin, plus 5 amp 2 pin plugs to optionally use in the 5 amp 3 pin sockets.

I still have a universal plug with retractable pins on an extension lead that plugs into 13 amp, 5 amp and 15 amp sockets. Made in Ireland, it was soon banned since it had a flexible body that could be squeezed to fit whatever one was trying to plug into, a step too far in consumer control of mains access!