Will the transition from fossil fuels be similar to that from Petrol to Diesel?
- Thread starter Ultra Motor
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Of course a Twizy equipped with Honda's very civilised and quiet CB250 engine would also be attractive and would probably sell much better, same level of power but no high battery costs or range restriction.
It would also suit all the many who only have on-road parking or remote garages without electricity.
It would also suit all the many who only have on-road parking or remote garages without electricity.
My Peugeot diesel 207 has slightly better emission figures than an electric equivalent (given that 80% of UK electricity comes from fossil fuels), has a range of over 600 miles on tank full. It takes less than five minutes to refuel and can be refuelled 24/7 anywhere it can be driven. Oh yes, and unsubsidised it costs £15,000 less than a subsidised electric car.
If electric cars were the norm, we'd all be be falling over one another to go diesel (or petrol, for that matter).
Electric cars are a good decade from being overall useful in my view. The idea that you'd have an electric car for town and local use and hire one for longer journeys, that is just too complicated for most people. Who wants to pay nearly twice as much for an electric car and then have the cost of hiring a car on top if you want to go to Brighton and back from London?
I think electric power is great for bicycles with pedals but the range is too short and unpredictable for solo electric power. That much vaunted '100 mile' range looks a bit different with a 2 year old battery on a sub-zero winter day.
In the UK, there is no 'transition' from fossil fuels - petrol to diesel or diesel to electric is all fossil to fossil. It's just that the transition of energy from fossil to electricity, then many miles along cables to a battery and thence to the road wheel is a great deal less efficient than just bunging it in your tank and burning it on demand.
If electric cars were the norm, we'd all be be falling over one another to go diesel (or petrol, for that matter).
Electric cars are a good decade from being overall useful in my view. The idea that you'd have an electric car for town and local use and hire one for longer journeys, that is just too complicated for most people. Who wants to pay nearly twice as much for an electric car and then have the cost of hiring a car on top if you want to go to Brighton and back from London?
I think electric power is great for bicycles with pedals but the range is too short and unpredictable for solo electric power. That much vaunted '100 mile' range looks a bit different with a 2 year old battery on a sub-zero winter day.
In the UK, there is no 'transition' from fossil fuels - petrol to diesel or diesel to electric is all fossil to fossil. It's just that the transition of energy from fossil to electricity, then many miles along cables to a battery and thence to the road wheel is a great deal less efficient than just bunging it in your tank and burning it on demand.
Yeah but then there's no tail pipe emissions on top of the fossil fuels used in power stations.
Also if you started using electric alot you can look into more renewable sources. Either way its alot of development.
It would also be more effcient to have a power station use up the fossil fuels. As certain cars use up more fossil fuels to do the same distances.
Electric in an ideal world where infastructure is different and batterys were cheap would be perfect. But we have gone down the fossil fuel route so will have to stick at it for a good while longer.
Also if you started using electric alot you can look into more renewable sources. Either way its alot of development.
It would also be more effcient to have a power station use up the fossil fuels. As certain cars use up more fossil fuels to do the same distances.
Electric in an ideal world where infastructure is different and batterys were cheap would be perfect. But we have gone down the fossil fuel route so will have to stick at it for a good while longer.
With the twin pressures of peak oil and climate change increasing with each year there is no prospect of oil being available in sufficient quantity to meet transport needs for the next 50 years. We have recently discovered that the previous Labour government were told the realities of peak oil two years ago but were dismissive of it:
Peak oil: 'Nothing to worry about'
I believe this is the natural tendency of governments who generally only see the future in electoral cycles. It is the same myopia that allowed the financial crash even though it was plain that irresponsible and unsustainable lending was endemic.
The future therefore has to be something other than oil. Biofuels are unlikely as they compete with food crops. Hydrogen is also fraught with problems of distribution infrastructure, it's storage and fuel cell technology not yet fully developed. EVs do seem the only current viable option. The well known limitations of batteries, cost, range and charging times are significant but with the right infrastructure, such as universal charging points and battery swapping, it can be made to work.
Peak oil: 'Nothing to worry about'
I believe this is the natural tendency of governments who generally only see the future in electoral cycles. It is the same myopia that allowed the financial crash even though it was plain that irresponsible and unsustainable lending was endemic.
The future therefore has to be something other than oil. Biofuels are unlikely as they compete with food crops. Hydrogen is also fraught with problems of distribution infrastructure, it's storage and fuel cell technology not yet fully developed. EVs do seem the only current viable option. The well known limitations of batteries, cost, range and charging times are significant but with the right infrastructure, such as universal charging points and battery swapping, it can be made to work.
Whilst I agree with a lot of your comments, I have driven pretty much all of the latest e-cars and they are phenominal. Even looking at the Technology we are employing for some of our new models there are some serious improvements taking place already.
I agree on infrastructure, I worked in the wind (turbine that is!) industry for 3 years and the UK are very slow. But with the feed in tariff now available we are seeing more and more home generation and many companies will now install and maintain solar PV FOC. All adding to the grid supply (admittedly only small at the moment).
There will be a shift, cars are getting too expensive to run. I own a £4000 car and I worked out that it costs me over £200/ month to insure, tax, service and put tyres on. Thats on the basis I own it, it isn't depreciating and no fuel costs. I think the switch will start with businesses first and the research supports that, but consumers will follow suit ultimately.
Not so successful. The production and sales of this hybrid from BYD have been a long way short of plans. Even Warren Buffet will get things wrong once in a while. And note it's a hybrid petrol-electric, not an e-car.
Yes, but what people dont look at is the cost of drilling to get the oil, then transport for refining, refining the oil, then delivering to a central station in the distribution country, then delivering to a refuelling station and then the carbon cost of running that refuelling station. If you look at an e-car and a petrol or diesel car like for like on emissions the e-car emits 0 and the petrol or diesel emits 60/70g/km minnimum
What if batteries were available at the service station? The battery you exchange is then charged for some other customer in a battery charge and store facility. Would require some standardization. Wouldn't be able to have Cytronex bottle batteries and Daahub battery docks etc ...etc ...
Peak oil is the myth it's always been. No-one will know the point that peak oil has been reached until well after it's been reached and thus established. There are still huge reserves, much of it as yet unknown, and there will be plenty for fifty years yet. The first time this myth of peak oil was being widely accepted was over 40 years ago now, at that time we were being told we'd all be driving electric by year 2000! In another 40 years probably only a small minority will be driving e-cars.
It's not the infrastructure you mention that's in the way, it's the generation and mass distribution of double our present total electricity that's blocking widespread e-car adoption, for that's what's needed for e-cars to replace fossil fuel ones. Even 5% of cars switching to electricity would leave Britain in a mess with widespread frequent power cuts since we are already on a generating knife edge.
We already face a huge problem in just replacing our worn out power station fleet for current needs, both fossil fuel and nuclear, let alone having to replace them twice over to supply e-cars as well.
It can only be solar energy. Earth receives something like 8,000 times more energy from the sun than all of us get from fossil fuel.
As you say Mark, the supplement of power from those sources is small, and I see that always being the case relative to need.
I agree that any e-car adoption will be business led and that has already happened. The small experimental fleets of Think e-cars and Smart e-cars are both restricted to suitable chosen business users.
But as far as widepread adoption of e-cars is concerned, every supporter dodges the impossible problem of delivering the required currents to drivers, even if we were able to generate it. My point about a large substation bigger than the "fuel" station being required is unavoidable if cars are to be used as at present but with en-route high speed charge filling.
The alternative of accepting the restricted range of home charging overnight is unlikely to meet what drivers need and will still require the distribution network to be replaced. With e-cars at all homes and more than one in many cases, overloading the present supply network will be inevitable.
Yep, I agree- it won't be simple switch from fossil to electric, its a process which will take time, and probably longer than predictions, but not 50 years. Fossil fuels will get more and more expensive and as this happens infrastructure will change and develop. in turn e-car use will grow and hopefully not exceed the infrastructure growth rate and supply of power!
From all the info I hear from the industry its not all hype there are real targets and plans to make this succeed one step at a time
I think ultimately the problem will be the politicians and their politically motivated dithering, coupled with and partly caused by public attitudes re: Nimbyism and nuclear.
My 50 years is based on past history. When the peak oil concept was first proposed, most of the oil fields now familiar to us were not even known, North Sea, Mexican Gulf, Alaska, Nigeria, Venezuela, the "-stans" on the Russian fringe.
Now we see a similar opening up of new and often very big resources, Libya, Namibia, China, the southern oceans, the arctic ocean and Siberia all in prospect, plus others we haven't imagined yet.
My only regret is that I won't be around to drive up in my petrol car in 2060 to say "I told you so!"
My 50 years is based on past history. When the peak oil concept was first proposed, most of the oil fields now familiar to us were not even known, North Sea, Mexican Gulf, Alaska, Nigeria, Venezuela, the "-stans" on the Russian fringe.
Now we see a similar opening up of new and often very big resources, Libya, Namibia, China, the southern oceans, the arctic ocean and Siberia all in prospect, plus others we haven't imagined yet.
My only regret is that I won't be around to drive up in my petrol car in 2060 to say "I told you so!"
What you you mean by peak oil? the time when production level has peaked? or the time when demand outstrips supply so much that it's just too stupid to keep burning fossil fuel to heat our homes and have hot running water? If it's the former, we may still not reach peak oil (or generally fossil fuel) for maybe a hundred years or more but if you go with the latter, e-cars will make economical sense pretty soon.
So you're saying that the oil used to make electricity doesn't need delivery, drilling, refining etc?
I don't know how many cars use my local Tesco to refuel each day, but let's say 1,000. If each fill up was from empty to full, that'd be about 60 litres average. So invested in fuel would be 60x1000x£1.40 £84,000.
Each battery costs (very) conservatively £10,000. Invested in batteries, £10,000,000. Hmmmm....
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