Transport plan? What transport plan?

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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Not as much typical as one might think.

"Campaigners say meeting these legally binding targets will be possible only with a drastic reduction in motor traffic, which could make many new road projects financially unviable."

As I've spelled out at length previously, it is precisely governments intention to drastically reduce the numbers of cars on the roads, whether we like it or not:

The program includes the ban on car ic engine sales shortly.

They are encouraging ev makers to go upmarket, making car prices out of reach for half the population.

This also suits the manufacturers who are co-operating, since they would rather make far less cars with higher profit margins than make cheap ones with no profit. GM and Ford have already said so, GM getting out of Europe already since it's mainly a small car market.

Once the ban on ic sales is in, they'll gradually start introducing more scrappage schemes for the older ic cars, the excuse being the environment.

That in turn will be reinforced with more of the "pay to enter" ultra low emission or congestion zones, making driving ever more expensive.

They have already stopped the subsidies on e-car purchase and home charge point installations.

They have already announced that e-cars will also have to pay full VED (road tax) from 2025.

I'm willing to bet there will be more toll roads and bridges amongst the new roads.

The ever growing spread of 20 mph zones in whole town and city areas is already making driving slower and more miserable, bringing car speeds down to bus speeds.

It's clear to see the future they are aiming for, the high costs and growing inconvenience of owning, running and driving a car making them out of reach for a very large proportion of the population.

But electorally they daren't openly say it, hence hiding the truths.
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WheezyRider

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Apr 20, 2020
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Not as much typical as one might think.

"Campaigners say meeting these legally binding targets will be possible only with a drastic reduction in motor traffic, which could make many new road projects financially unviable."

As I've spelled out at length previously, it is precisely governments intention to drastically reduce the numbers of cars on the roads, whether we like it or not:

The program includes the ban on car ic engine sales shortly.

They are encouraging ev makers to go upmarket, making car prices out of reach for half the population.

This also suits the manufacturers who are co-operating, since they would rather make far less cars with higher profit margins than make cheap ones with no profit. GM and Ford have already said so, GM getting out of Europe already since it's mainly a small car market.

Once the ban on ic sales is in, they'll gradually start introducing more scrappage schemes for the older ic cars, the excuse being the environment.

That in turn will be reinforced with more of the "pay to enter" ultra low emission or congestion zones, making driving ever more expensive.

They have already stopped the subsidies on e-car purchase and home charge point installations.

They have already announced that e-cars will also have to pay full VED (road tax) from 2025.

I'm willing to bet there will be more toll roads and bridges amongst the new roads.

The ever growing spread of 20 mph zones in whole town and city areas is already making driving slower and more miserable, bringing car speeds down to bus speeds.

It's clear to see the future they are aiming for, the high costs and growing inconvenience of owning, running and driving a car making them out of reach for a very large proportion of the population.

But electorally they daren't openly say it, hence hiding the truths.
.
Sounds like a bit of a conspiracy :) and I don't think governments (particularly ours) are that organised, too many factions pulling in different directions. Many, even now see EVs as a simple swap for ICEs. The majority in government won't be looking much beyond the next election in a couple of years, hence this little mess.

A year or so ago, it was full steam ahead, build roads, roads, roads, we'll replace the ICE fleet with EVs...while we throw a few crumbs to the active travel lot...now it's a case of, we need the money, so take away all EV subsidies and start taxing EVs. Then finally they realise the grand plan for growth that involved road building will be a disaster..."Bugger, we'd better bury it somehow, kick it into the long grass until we figure out what our policy is actually going to be..."

So my impression is there isn't any grand plan at the moment.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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Sounds like a bit of a conspiracy :) and I don't think governments (particularly ours) are that organised, too many factions pulling in different directions. Many, even now see EVs as a simple swap for ICEs. The majority in government won't be looking much beyond the next election in a couple of years, hence this little mess.

A year or so ago, it was full steam ahead, build roads, roads, roads, we'll replace the ICE fleet with EVs...while we throw a few crumbs to the active travel lot...now it's a case of, we need the money, so take away all EV subsidies and start taxing EVs. Then finally they realise the grand plan for growth that involved road building will be a disaster..."Bugger, we'd better bury it somehow, kick it into the long grass until we figure out what our policy is actually going to be..."

So my impression is there isn't any grand plan at the moment.
It's not just us, others are working along the same lines.

Governments have long realised what a huge mistake it was to allow mass car ownership. They've been gradually chipping away at that freedom and the combined advent of e-cars and the environmental issue has been a golden opportunity which they won't miss.

Never take your impressions from the shambles of the political government on display. There is always long term policy on major issues created by and maintained by the civil service ministries which appointed ministers largely follow.

And of course our transport policy isn't only ours anyway, it's EU policy which we have agreed to continue with for obvious reasons.
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soundwave

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the corporations run the governments of the world and use the governments as there puppets and do as there told.
 
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WheezyRider

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It's not just us, others are working along the same lines.

Governments have long realised what a huge mistake it was to allow mass car ownership. They've been gradually chipping away at that freedom and the combined advent of e-cars and the environmental issue has been a golden opportunity which they won't miss.

Never take your impressions from the shambles of the political government on display. There is always long term policy on major issues created by and maintained by the civil service ministries which appointed ministers largely follow.

And of course our transport policy isn't only ours anyway, it's EU policy which we have agreed to continue with for obvious reasons.
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So are you saying it's all a conspiracy of a cabal of evil bureaucrats we can do nothing about as we can't vote them out? What's the solution then, call in the Proud Boys to "Make Britain Great Again!"? :p

Seems to me like you are stretching the facts to try and fit your theory, without providing any meaningful evidence to back up your claims.

The point of this thread was to show that the government has committed itself to large, expensive road building schemes despite its other commitments to the environment and now it is realising the whole business case for road building isn't there either and it doesn't know what to do yet.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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So are you saying it's all a conspiracy of a cabal of evil bureaucrats we can do nothing about as we can't vote them out? What's the solution then, call in the Proud Boys to "Make Britain Great Again!"? :p
Here you go again with conspiracy. How can the things that are already happening and continuing to happen be conspiracy theory when they are present fact.

You seem to have been missing what is actually happening recently in so many ways.

And your mention of voting government out is even more unrealistic. Since when has that made any difference? We voted out the Tories to get Blair's "New Labour", both Blair and the Party then turning out to be pseudo-Labour tories.

And what do we get now pretending to be Labour? Keir Starmer, yet another wealthy barrister like Blair.

As already said, the erratic behaviour and policy changes of governments is irrelevant. All long term policy on major matters is administered by the civil service who carry it forward through successive governments. That is essential in a world where governments can collapse in weeks and why we have the Treasury and the Bank of England who are the final arbiters.
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soundwave

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we got plenty of bombs and missiles for Ukraine to fire off at Russia must be the zero emission ones.

good money to be made tho :p
 

soundwave

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WheezyRider

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Here you go again with conspiracy. How can the things that are already happening and continuing to happen be conspiracy theory when they are present fact.

You seem to have been missing what is actually happening recently in so many ways.

And your mention of voting government out is even more unrealistic. Since when has that made any difference? We voted out the Tories to get Blair's "New Labour", both Blair and the Party then turning out to be pseudo-Labour tories.

And what do we get now pretending to be Labour? Keir Starmer, yet another wealthy barrister like Blair.

As already said, the erratic behaviour and policy changes of governments is irrelevant. All long term policy on major matters is administered by the civil service who carry it forward through successive governments. That is essential in a world where governments can collapse in weeks and why we have the Treasury and the Bank of England who are the final arbiters.
.

I say conspiracy, because what you are saying sounds like one. I am still waiting for facts from you to prove there is any basis behind what you are suggesting. Where is the government white paper saying that any government's policies over the last 25 years will deliberately target and reduce the movement of people in this country? Where are the memos from the faceless civil servants pulling the strings? The only thing you present is your interpretation of what may be behind certain events, which can also be interpreted in many other different ways. Until I see solid facts, it remains a conspiracy theory to me.

For example, car manufacturers deciding to focus on high value models. I think this is because car manufacturers are in an uncertain position and don't know what to do for the best. For years they have tried to ignore EVs or pay lip service to them. Then along comes Tesla and disrupts the market and they are playing catch up. Then there is the push to diesels, only for us then to realise diesels are just plain "evil" and then governments start setting deadlines for ICE phaseout...we have had the pandemic, no one was driving or buying cars, then when things re-open you just can't get a lot of parts, so you can't make a lot of cars easily. So car manufacturers seriously do not know what to do for the best, it is like being on a raging sea, clinging on waiting for things to calm down. A lot of these manufacturers will also not want to make the first move, it's best to move into the market second after someone else has made the mistakes...so they are waiting for the competition.

I completely agree with you about British party politics. Unfortunately we do not have a meaningful democracy in this country, it is a sham democracy. Unless you live in a marginal seat your vote counts for nothing.

All major parties are very much alike and just as useless as each other. Why are they alike? Because they take a popularist path in order to get elected. I once asked a Lib Dem councillor if he would campaign to remove on street parking in the area to make space for active travel. His response was that he couldn't do it, it was electoral suicide.

The establishment doesn't really care whether people move around this country or not, so long as they can keep tabs on them, hence ANPR on every main road in this country and data kept for years and people essentially "made" to carry mobiles with them everywhere so they can be tracked and monitored.

The current forecast is for significant increases in traffic into the future:

 

soundwave

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most ppl cant afford a electric car and why the government is pushing them hard, watch the video but as these things are gps computers and will be able to drive them self means they can track you via the cars computer limit the speed it can go on roads or just remote shut it down.

it is all about control and data and expensive electric cars most wont be able to afford in the first place.

just look at china you can get a cheap ecar for about 3-5k and has the most electric cars in the world yet charge them all with coal power stations.

and use slaves in south Africa to mine for the stuff they use in batt production but like anything you cant dig it up out the ground forever.

just buy a horse :p
 
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flecc

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I say conspiracy, because what you are saying sounds like one. I am still waiting for facts from you to prove there is any basis behind what you are suggesting. Where is the government white paper saying that any government's policies over the last 25 years will deliberately target and reduce the movement of people in this country? Where are the memos from the faceless civil servants pulling the strings? The only thing you present is your interpretation of what may be behind certain events, which can also be interpreted in many other different ways. Until I see solid facts, it remains a conspiracy theory to me.

For example, car manufacturers deciding to focus on high value models. I think this is because car manufacturers are in an uncertain position and don't know what to do for the best. For years they have tried to ignore EVs or pay lip service to them. Then along comes Tesla and disrupts the market and they are playing catch up. Then there is the push to diesels, only for us then to realise diesels are just plain "evil" and then governments start setting deadlines for ICE phaseout...we have had the pandemic, no one was driving or buying cars, then when things re-open you just can't get a lot of parts, so you can't make a lot of cars easily. So car manufacturers seriously do not know what to do for the best, it is like being on a raging sea, clinging on waiting for things to calm down. A lot of these manufacturers will also not want to make the first move, it's best to move into the market second after someone else has made the mistakes...so they are waiting for the competition.

I completely agree with you about British party politics. Unfortunately we do not have a meaningful democracy in this country, it is a sham democracy. Unless you live in a marginal seat your vote counts for nothing.

All major parties are very much alike and just as useless as each other. Why are they alike? Because they take a popularist path in order to get elected. I once asked a Lib Dem councillor if he would campaign to remove on street parking in the area to make space for active travel. His response was that he couldn't do it, it was electoral suicide.

The establishment doesn't really care whether people move around this country or not, so long as they can keep tabs on them, hence ANPR on every main road in this country and data kept for years and people essentially "made" to carry mobiles with them everywhere so they can be tracked and monitored.

The current forecast is for significant increases in traffic into the future:

So your response is also as much opinion, but with inaccuracies and failures to mention what IS actually happening.

The DfT forecast is about traffic, not cars, there is a big difference and it is only private cars I have been posting about. We've already got that difference, fact. For example there has been an explosion in supermarket deliveries with hordes of their vans running about. That has meant huge numbers of customer journeys to the supermarkets no longer exist, fact.

Equally the huge growth of online shopping has brought us record numbers of courier and similar vehicle deliveries with a corresponding fall in car trips to shops, fact.

In other examples, for only the second time since WW2 the number of new cars registered has been drastically falling for at least three years. In addition the number of SORN registrations has been rising to record levels, presumably because people are no longer able to afford to run their cars. These two alone have meant less car use, this being officially acknowledged by the DfT.

In another trend, road pricing has dramatically reduced car use, fact. Small in overall scale nationally, in London it is very real. First the congestion charge, now costing £11.50 every day, has made car commuting for tens of thousands prohibitive. Now the enlargement of the Ultra Low Emission Zone to the whole of London between the North and South Circular roads is elevating that daily cost to as much as £24, depending on the type of car.

The congestion zone alone has produced 300,000 commuters on bicycles instead of using cars, not to mention all those travelling on our now DOUBLED number of low fare buses instead of their cars.

London now has by far the lowest rate of car ownership in the country due to the plentiful and often very low cost public transport. All these things also reduce the car of use of others in and beyond London fringes. For example, I used to drive further into London regularly at one time, but no longer. When needing to do so I leave the car in the garage and use public transport and this is very common practice here.

And in case you are tempted to say "Well that is only London", remember that the recognised supercity of London at over 13 millions that these things apply to is 20% of the whole of the UK. Since many of things that supercity of London first introduced to our roads, such as Parking Meters, Traffic Wardens under various names, "Smart" motorways, Red Routes, Mini Roundabouts, Cycle Lanes etc have spread elsewhere, it is entirely reasonable for me to assume that the trend will continue. Not conspiracy theory, just a greater awareness of the facts.

Speaking of facts, Tesla did not lead the industry with e-cars. Elon Musk happened upon a successful e-sports car design by some entrepeneurs and copied it onto a Lotus Elan two seater chassis, announcing it in 2008 at a ridiculously prohibitive price. At that point the Nissan, Renault, Mitsubishi Alliance were already far advanced with their designs, releasing wholly practical family cars from 2010 onwards and affordable for many.

It was another two years before Tesla launched the S model, their first practical car, but again at elevated prices from over £50,000 to £90,000, depending on version. In fact the Nissan Leaf led the worldwide e-car sales for well over a decade until the Tesla model 3 very recently took that crown. Even BMW beat most of Tesla's models to the market with their i3 and i8 e-car sales, as did Smart and Ford.
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soundwave

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May 23, 2015
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it is like the 1890s again when horses were replaced with cars but buy 1908 most were off the road and in a bun.

and it is the same thing now just with electric transport as if they make the change then no more ice will be made on mass and only expensive brand batts and motors for the rich for the corporations as thats what they want and government agenda to save the planet for profit as no other choice or sit in ur box.

49824

still gets me a dog can crap on the floor and you could get fined for it yet a horse can crap where it likes in the middle of the road and not a problem :oops:

if i took a crap in the middle of the road it would be in the local paper and a threat to humanity and thrown in prison for 50 years :p
 
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Danidl

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So your response is also as much opinion, but with inaccuracies and failures to mention what IS actually happening.

The DfT forecast is about traffic, not cars, there is a big difference and it is only private cars I have been posting about. We've already got that difference, fact. For example there has been an explosion in supermarket deliveries with hordes of their vans running about. That has meant huge numbers of customer journeys to the supermarkets no longer exist, fact.

Equally the huge growth of online shopping has brought us record numbers of courier and similar vehicle deliveries with a corresponding fall in car trips to shops, fact.

In other examples, for only the second time since WW2 the number of new cars registered has been drastically falling for at least three years. In addition the number of SORN registrations has been rising to record levels, presumably because people are no longer able to afford to run their cars. These two alone have meant less car use, this being officially acknowledged by the DfT.

In another trend, road pricing has dramatically reduced car use, fact. Small in overall scale nationally, in London it is very real. First the congestion charge, now costing £11.50 every day, has made car commuting for tens of thousands prohibitive. Now the enlargement of the Ultra Low Emission Zone to the whole of London between the North and South Circular roads is elevating that daily cost to as much as £24, depending on the type of car.

The congestion zone alone has produced 300,000 commuters on bicycles instead of using cars, not to mention all those travelling on our now DOUBLED number of low fare buses instead of their cars.

London now has by far the lowest rate of car ownership in the country due to the plentiful and often very low cost public transport. All these things also reduce the car of use of others in and beyond London fringes. For example, I used to drive further into London regularly at one time, but no longer. When needing to do so I leave the car in the garage and use public transport and this is very common practice here.

And in case you are tempted to say "Well that is only London", remember that the recognised supercity of London at over 13 millions that these things apply to is 20% of the whole of the UK. Since many of things that supercity of London first introduced to our roads, such as Parking Meters, Traffic Wardens under various names, "Smart" motorways, Red Routes, Mini Roundabouts, Cycle Lanes etc have spread elsewhere, it is entirely reasonable for me to assume that the trend will continue. Not conspiracy theory, just a greater awareness of the facts.

Speaking of facts, Tesla did not lead the industry with e-cars. Elon Musk happened upon a successful e-sports car design by some entrepeneurs and copied it onto a Lotus Elan two seater chassis, announcing it in 2008 at a ridiculously prohibitive price. At that point the Nissan, Renault, Mitsubishi Alliance were already far advanced with their designs, releasing wholly practical family cars from 2010 onwards and affordable for many.

It was another two years before Tesla launched the S model, their first practical car, but again at elevated prices from over £50,000 to £90,000, depending on version. In fact the Nissan Leaf led the worldwide e-car sales for well over a decade until the Tesla model 3 very recently took that crown. Even BMW beat most of Tesla's models to the market with their i3 and i8 e-car sales, as did Smart and Ford.
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The microanalysis is fine, but the macro analysis is not supported. The reason why EVs are in the luxury bracket is because that is where the profit is.
It was always so. I was purchasing classloads of IBM compatible PCs at 4K a throw, back in the day.( That's a purchase of 22 machines each time) And that was about 6 months salary at the time. Now that type of computer performance is superceded by 50 quid Kindles. I followed the entire price war as It moved downwards .,and could list each of the contestants over the 80s and 90 s . During the early phases. The amount of luxury ... Dealer support, documentation, was serious. Nobody was going to waste a valuable 80286 on a 300 qid machine.

At the moment the limiting factor in EVs is the chemistry of Lithium,and it's availability. So obviously make the cars luxury items . As other chemistries take over, prices will drop. Whether they will drop enough depends on market appeal..and that brings up the notion of customer interest
You possibly cannot see how effective peer resolve and urban living changes perception. .. Of my 3 adult children only one drives, and the others don't even have licenses. They simply don't need them. Taking a taxi or using me as a taxi has greater appeal. In my grandfather's time, the train held a mythical fascination and for my father's generation the car.. I only ever saw it as a tool , and my children see it as an inconvenience.
 

soundwave

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these evs need computers to work.

and every single computer i have bought has gone in to the bin, so i can buy a new faster one :p
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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At the moment the limiting factor in EVs is the chemistry of Lithium,and it's availability. So obviously make the cars luxury items . As other chemistries take over, prices will drop. Whether they will drop enough depends on market appeal..and that brings up the notion of customer interest
I strongly disagree on the basis of far more substantial history than that of computing. Some 120 years ago with the advent of road going e-vehicles there was a desperate need for better batteries than lead-acid. But it took all that time before we've finally got them, though still barely adequate. Given the even greater need and effort now but still with almost no progress, it's likely that most of us alive now won't see anything which is better but much cheaper as well.

For a decade or two e-cars will be lithium batteried and far more expensive than the to-be-banned ic cars, and they will last for a further 20 years at least. By then the new car economy of restricted privileged access will be well established in accordance with government's desires. You and I won't see that happen, but all the evidence says it will.

You possibly cannot see how effective peer resolve and urban living changes perception. .. Of my 3 adult children only one drives, and the others don't even have licenses. They simply don't need them. Taking a taxi or using me as a taxi has greater appeal. In my grandfather's time, the train held a mythical fascination and for my father's generation the car.. I only ever saw it as a tool , and my children see it as an inconvenience.
Really Danidl, have you even read my posts? How dare you say "You possibly cannot see", yet then go on to repeat the point I was making about London's low car ownership, due to the same lack of need of your children. Obviously I very clearly do see and have long done so, since that is precisely one of the many points I am making in arguing that car ownership will substantially drop.
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soundwave

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when i got my bike in 2014 i thought buy now i could double the capacity of the batt in the same size case and it has not happened let alone can bus bs.

they have just got bigger and more expensive and dont see this changing in the next ten years either.

and as my bike is now obsolete motor wise the new ones will not work with my motor as software locked not 2 yet i can and will get another ten years out of it even if it means ill rip the bloody controller and bms out of it and use one i can programme my self.

yet over the years every one that has seen or had a go on my bike wants one but they just cant afford it and these days some are pushing 15k which is crazy.

my electric car will be a 400bhp mobility scooter diy :p
 
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soundwave

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soundwave

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jonathan.agnew

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when i got my bike in 2014 i thought buy now i could double the capacity of the batt in the same size case and it has not happened let alone can bus bs.

they have just got bigger and more expensive and dont see this changing in the next ten years either.

and as my bike is now obsolete motor wise the new ones will not work with my motor as software locked not 2 yet i can and will get another ten years out of it even if it means ill rip the bloody controller and bms out of it and use one i can programme my self.

yet over the years every one that has seen or had a go on my bike wants one but they just cant afford it and these days some are pushing 15k which is crazy.

my electric car will be a 400bhp mobility scooter diy :p
Dont give up hope, prices are plummeting
apparently in part as a result of cheaper new ev deals
In our post truss reality the ev market will look like china's in a few years (cheap and cheerful) as companies follow profit
 
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