Prices of the electricity we use to charge

Ghost1951

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The cautionary note is of course that we don't know how long a shutdown might take as humanity has never carried out this fossil fuels experiment before. Future generations will learn that in due course.
True enough for the first point, but the planet itself has transformed itself many times in pretty dramatic ways. Most of the last half billion years Earth was MUCH warmer than it is now. Paradoxically, long term, we are living in a cool period. Not the coolest, but VERY far from the warmest.

I have often posted this graph which I found on the NOAA website - National Oceanographic and Aeronautical Administration. It is obviously drawn using temperature proxies, but then so is everything which is older than a couple of hundred years.


61978
Earth's average surface temperature over the past 500 million years. For most of the time, global temperatures appear to have been too warm (red portions of line) for persistent polar ice caps. The most recent 50 million years are an exception. Image adapted from Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History.
 
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Peter.Bridge

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Comparing the Big Freezes of 764, 1684, 1740, 1881, 1940, 1947, 1963 and 1973.
No mention of Global Varming or Klimate Change, ah yes, hadn't been invented yet, no kerching.
There's a very interesting article on the Institute of Physics by Spencer Weart "The Discovery of Global Warming"


"Calculations made in the late 1960s suggested that in the next century, as CO2 built up in the atmosphere, average temperatures would rise a few degrees. But the models were preliminary, and the 21st century seemed far away."
 
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matthewslack

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As far as humanity is concerned, there's no comfort in such deep history. The current situation is unprecedented in the human era, and the rate of change
There's a very interesting article on the Institute of Physics by Spencer Weart "The Discovery of Global Warming"


"Calculations made in the late 1960s suggested that in the next century, as CO2 built up in the atmosphere, average temperatures would rise a few degrees. But the models were preliminary, and the 21st century seemed far away."
I first became aware of it roughly in year 2000, was lucky enough to meet and work with some people with good understanding and excellent communication skills a few years later.

2025 seemed far away then!
 

Ghost1951

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As far as humanity is concerned, there's no comfort in such deep history. The current situation is unprecedented in the human era, and the rate of change

I first became aware of it roughly in year 2000, was lucky enough to meet and work with some people with good understanding and excellent communication skills a few years later.

2025 seemed far away then!
I don't share the pessimistic outlook I think I detect here.

What is done is already done and there is little we can do about the 2 trillion tons of co2 already added to the atmosphere. It is easy to work out how much co2 we have added, because we only need to know how much coal has been burned, and oil and methane gas. We know exactly how much co2 is produced by burning any amount - at least any chemist does. Methane for example when burned combines with oxygen in the air (a molecule of CH4 adds to oxygen and makes two water molecules and one of co2).

The other thing of course is that we have no control of what the big emitters do. The Chinese, Russians and Americans are not going to stop burning carbon. Anyone who thinks they are is just not awake, so although I have reduced my carbon output dramatically, it makes no difference. If the UK sank below the waves tomorrow, China would take up the slack in carbon emission by next year. People protesting oil and gas fields in the UK are protesting in the wrong place. They need to go to China and Russia, or America and Canada where emissions are vastly higher.

However - the human species has always lived in a changing world and has been more than capable of adapting to every possible harsh living environment from desert to rain forest to frozen tundra. No way will a rise of even five degrees end human life, let alone all of life. The planet was never fuller with life than during the Cretaceous and other ancient hot periods. Remember that palaeontologists dig up the bones of large fossilised animals such as crocodiles in the arctic and the remains of forests in Antarctica.

I am not suggesting warming will not lead to wholesale disruption and death. It will, but I just laugh at the fools like the mad eco-granny that I used to know who think the planet will turn into a dried up cinder, devoid of life. They just haven't thought about what the planet was like when life began. The mean global temperature back then was not 15.3 like now - it was somewhere around 30 to 35c.

The human species is breeding like rats right now and it has been for too long. The population of the planet has doubled in about forty years. This is mad. We are beyond due for a big cut back.

61981
 
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MikelBikel

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For those interested in "AI", this is said to be one that uses Real data, rather than hearsay. And funnier still, one of the fake AI's quoted his real research when uploaded, hehe. GIGO, garbage in, garbage out.:cool:
 

Woosh

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What was it somebody here said about Trump being a worn out old man in cognitive decline?
it was possibly me. I was proven wrong.
He's still wrong to pick on his neighbours to start a tariff war though.
He said America has been ripped off but that's not true. The USA government run a budget deficit for so long that private savings are no longer enough to make up for the shortfall. The general equation is trade deficit = total savings - investments.
A lot of his supporters will wake up that he sides with the billionaires and not them.
 

MikelBikel

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So all that money "spent" and nothing to show for it.
It's almost as if there's other factors at play, hehe.
Fun if there was forensic accounting to see where the greenwashing money Really went. Drill Baby drill! :cool:
 

Woosh

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Drill Baby drill!
Do you know that oil and gas will run out in about 50 years?

It's a shame that coal and oil can only form during a very special period in the planet's history: the carboniferous period. It will never come again. Once all the oil is burnt, that is it.

The air will then be cleaner than now.
 

matthewslack

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The American dollar is the world's reserve currency. They never have to pay back their debt. If that ever changed, that would be seismic.
 

matthewslack

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Oil and gas go way beyond 50 years if we are that stupid. Not Saudi wells, but fracking and oil sands. As long as the money adds up, there is plenty of it.

Remember ASPO, from before fracking came of age?


And a bemused regional heating oil company...

 

Woosh

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The American dollar is the world's reserve currency. They never have to pay back their debt. If that ever changed, that would be seismic.
That's only true if Trump weren't the president. He's so obsessed with the US trade deficit that he has started the tariff war. In order for the Dollar to be used for trade, you have to encourage people to see the dollar is safe. That's not what Trump is doing. He has already upset the G7 countries, including the UK, Canada, Germany, France and the EU. Who is going to stand with the USD as long as Trump is at the WH?
The BRICS have already setup an alternative to the international settlement system with their own digital currency. I can easily ask for quotes and pay in RMB instead of USD.
Expect the BRICS and JAPAN to dump US Treasury bills at record levels.
 

saneagle

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it was possibly me. I was proven wrong.
He's still wrong to pick on his neighbours to start a tariff war though.
He said America has been ripped off but that's not true. The USA government run a budget deficit for so long that private savings are no longer enough to make up for the shortfall. The general equation is trade deficit = total savings - investments.
A lot of his supporters will wake up that he sides with the billionaires and not them.
If you keep away from the BBC and the Guardian, you'll be fine, but you're still on them, so it's making you think wrong yet again. Take a few deep breaths and learn from the master.
 
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Woosh

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Oil and gas go way beyond 50 years if we are that stupid. Not Saudi wells, but fracking and oil sands. As long as the money adds up, there is plenty of it.
There will still be a small amout of oil and gas but more and more difficult to reach in such places as Greenland and Antartica.
Renewables are already much cheaper than burning gas and oil for electricity generation, it won't be long before investment in oil will dry up and get displaced toward renewables.
 

Woosh

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If you keep away from the BBC and the Guardian, you'll be fine, but you're still on them, so it's making you think wrong yet again. Take a few deep breaths and learn from the master.
Yes, Obiwan.
 
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matthewslack

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In recent hist
There will still be a small amout of oil and gas but more and more difficult to reach in such places as Greenland and Antartica.
Renewables are already much cheaper than burning gas and oil for electricity generation, it won't be long before investment in oil will dry up and get displaced toward renewables.
Your 50 years is conventional oil (1.6 trillion barrels) at current rate of consumption (47 billion barrels per year). Shale oil reserves are about 4 times as big.

We'd be stupid to use it, but it is there.
 

Ghost1951

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People who were supposed to know were saying that oil would run out in fifty years since I was a schoolboy in the 1960s. It is no more true now that it was then. The 'easy' oil may get more scarce, but there are vast amounts more under the earth. Whether it gets produced, depends more on whether we need it and what the costs of extracting it are. The USA used to be a major importer of oil. They started using other ways of getting at what they have and are now a massive supplier of hydrocarbons to the rest of the world.

Volumes of oil and gas produced depend on the world price. The recent drop is not about running out, but profitability of production.

61982




61984
61983
 

Woosh

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People who were supposed to know were saying that oil would run out in fifty years since I was a schoolboy in the 1960s. It is no more true now that it was then. The 'easy' oil may get more scarce, but there are vast amounts more under the earth. Whether it gets produced, depends more on whether we need it and what the costs of extracting it are. The USA used to be a major importer of oil. They started using other ways of getting at what they have and are now a massive supplier of hydrocarbons to the rest of the world.

Volumes of oil and gas produced depend on the world price. The recent drop is not about running out, but profitability of production.
When it stops to be very profitable like it is at the moment, there is investment going in. As soon as renewables can provide all the electricity we need, I bet government will allow civil actions against petrol companies for all the harm burning fossil has done. Money will dry up, the oil will stay in the ground. We have 300 year reserve of coal and we have stopped digging for it .