parts an prices from china

[Bonzo Banana]

Brexit is here, nobody disputes that but if you look at the real world since the vote in May 2016, have we done any better?

We left the EU in a hugely damaged state with industry destroyed and horrific debts. We have the opportunity now to recover if we take it and that really is the benefit. Have you seen politicians come up with policies to eliminate our trading deficit and return us to a trading surplus? Brexit is surely a two stage process, leaving and then coming up with policies to sort out the issues with our economy.

Much to my disbelieve the conservatives have spent much time focused on free trade agreements with other countries when we are lacking in manufacturing and other sectors to export.

It's is confusing though as we have had the pandemic and the Ukrainian war to make analysis of Brexit much more difficult.

I'd like to say the huge benefit of Brexit is our debts shouldn't build up at such a huge rate but the Pandemic and war have accelerated our debts unfortunately.

Politically the UK needs a change of direction and a hands on approach to the economy.

 

[Woosh]

I'd like to say the huge benefit of Brexit is our debts shouldn't build up at such a huge rate but the Pandemic and war have accelerated our debts unfortunately.

Brexit relies on cheaper GBP and lower taxation.
Both are fine if you are Sir Radcliffe but not if you work for amazon or uber.

 

[Bonzo Banana]

the graph shows the national debt to GDP ratio. Vertical axis is GDP, the scale is 100% GDP, the horizontal axis is time, so you can see our borrowing against our ability to service the debt.
You can see that our borrowing levelled at around 30% of our GDP during the membership period 1975-2008 until the subprime mortgage crash of 2008.
The EU's treaties are fundamentally there to ensure stability, countries are limited in how much they can borrow (3% of GDP) albeit that they all cheat with creative accounting, like Greece when they wanted to build for the Olympics.
2008-2010, Labour borrowed some to bail out the banks but the real hit is since 2010 until now, all under conservative government because of their low tax policy. Despite their effort to impose austerity on public services, they run such a high budget deficit in order to maintain low taxation on the rich. Imagine if they had taken 5% more tax a year, we wouldn't be where we are now. Large budget deficit has long term consequences. Interest accumulates, next government has bigger interest bills and the cycle will continue unless the next government reverses it.


The structural deficit that you often hear talked about is very real, that is because we voted for conservatives' low tax policy. The facts are all there, if you want to look into this.
Imagine that Nigel Lawson did not abolish the 60% tax bracket for the top earners, corporation tax rate remains at 30%, there won't be any more generous tax free pension contribution up to £5 million a year (think how many people can use that perk) and a myriad of 'investment reliefs' that created a whole industry of tax avoidance.
That particular policy results in more people waiting for treatment and they can't work or worse, choose to go from working and paying taxes to not working and relying on welfare.
I can go on but you see the gist of what I am saying.

Again the GDP figure would be important in that graph and I'm certainly not here to defend the Conservatives but your criticism of them is not the big issue of our economy and the huge level of debt. I don't agree with your overall analysis at all when it comes to the UK economy. My point is about the level of manufacturing and how to return to a trading surplus and payback our debts. Your focus on taxation seems politicised and not relevant to the big picture of our economy. Low taxation would have been hugely beneficial to industry if it made manufacturing more competitive and exports easier.

 

[flecc]

When I look at the EU you can see a huge number of countries like France, Spain and Italy have crippling debts.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

Over the next few years assuming we stay out of the EU these will be the benchmarks to see how our economy compares to theirs. Lets not pretend everything is rosy in the EU its is creating huge debts for many countries there. They are all making huge interest payments and their people are suffering. There was bound to be turbulence as we left the EU and then the pandemic hit adding a huge extra layer of debt. Also if you are comparing growth again this is a ridiculous way of comparing economies. Growth can mean more debt if it results in a higher level of imports. It's a balanced economy we should be looking for and a reduction in imports and increase in exports. Liz Truss's policies of high growth through huge additional borrowing was absolutely moronic. Many EU countries are getting growth through additional borrowing although not on the scale Liz Truss came up with I think. They are kickstarting their economies in a similar way. This might work for Germany or the Netherlands who have done well in the EU but is likely bad news for France, Italy and Spain in the long term.

Time will tell indeed, and it will lead to disappointment for you as our decline continues and the EU overall improves, albeit variably.

Look again at the graph Woosh posted, but this time with an open mind for a change, not ignoring the gains from being in the EU. Initially our debt fell due to North Sea oil, no credit to the EU. But then we enjoyed a long period of lower debt thanks to the benefits of membership trading.

That was brought to an end by the sub prime disaster, the stupidity of the USA and Britain's investing grossly overvaluing property in a fools paradise until the bubble burst. So from 2008 you see a huge increase in debt thanks to vast sums of borrowed money spent in bailing out the banks during the recession the sub prime caused. Nothing to do with the EU where their property markets are infinitely more sensible than ours, the problem caused entirely by ourselves.

And then of course Covid struck and once again we grossly mishandled that, creating anothet billion or so of debt with the idiocy of paying businesses to close and paying people not to work. I argued bitterly against that in the Brexit thread, drawing comparisons particularly with Sweden due to some very similar circumstances. They didn't do what we did, relying largely on voluntary action so not suffering a huge increase in debt. I was proved right since we ended up with 40% more covid deaths than Sweden pro rata, despite all the wasteful spending.

So once again that huge debt increase from Covid was nothing to do with the EU, being entirely of our own foolish making.

The graph says it all, the EU helping us to have a stable lower debt which we wrecked twice with first, sub prime costs, then Covid unnecessary costs.

However I do fully agree with you about the stupidity of living in trading deficit while borrowing to maintain living standards. But the underlying cause there is a our very low productivity making us uncompetitive through high costs, and that certainly isn't the EU's fault.

We've a choice of ways out of our mess, either get a whole lot more competitive in the international markets, or resign ourselve to a much lower standard of living. That's true in or out of the EU.
.

 

[Woosh]

My point is about the level of manufacturing and how to return to a trading surplus and payback our debts.

we can only achieve trading surplus when we can produce more for less per capita. That means we must compete against the top producers in the world. We can't do that with free market economy because the smart money will just move to where production cost is lower. We need a clear industrial strategy and more taxes to fund better education, better heathcare, better childcare, better public transport, better housing.

 

[vidtek]

Brexit relies on cheaper GBP and lower taxation.
Both are fine if you are Sir Radcliffe but not if you work for amazon or uber.

Mmmm, I think the exit of the cheapest Eastern European labour has made a massive difference to those on the lowest wages in our society. For the first time in decades, those on the lowest wages are able to drive harder bargains with prospective employers, that has not been the case with cheap overseas labour for the last couple of decades.

 

[Woosh]

Their gain is mostly negated by Inflation. What's next then?

 

[vidtek]

Time will tell indeed, and it will lead to disappointment for you as our decline continues and the EU overall improves, albeit variably.

Look again at the graph Woosh posted, but this time with an open mind for a change, not ignoring the gains from being in the EU. Initially our debt fell due to North Sea oil, no credit to the EU. But then we enjoyed a long period of lower debt thanks to the benefits of membership trading.

That was brought to an end by the sub prime disaster, the stupidity of the USA and Britain's investing grossly overvaluing property in a fools paradise until the bubble burst. So from 2008 you see a huge increase in debt thanks to vast sums of borrowed money spent in bailing out the banks during the recession the sub prime caused. Nothing to do with the EU where their property markets are infinitely more sensible than ours, the problem caused entirely by ourselves.

And then of course Covid struck and once again we grossly mishandled that, creating anothet billion or so of debt with the idiocy of paying businesses to close and paying people not to work. I argued bitterly against that in the Brexit thread, drawing comparisons particularly with Sweden due to some very similar circumstances. They didn't do what we did, relying largely on voluntary action so not suffering a huge increase in debt. I was proved right since we ended up with 40% more covid deaths than Sweden pro rata, despite all the wasteful spending.

So once again that huge debt increase from Covid was nothing to do with the EU, being entirely of our own foolish making.

The graph says it all, the EU helping us to have a stable lower debt which we wrecked twice with first, sub prime costs, then Covid unnecessary costs.

However I do fully agree with you about the stupidity of living in trading deficit while borrowing to maintain living standards. But the underlying cause there is a our very low productivity making us uncompetitive through high costs, and that certainly isn't the EU's fault.

We've a choice of ways out of our mess, either get a whole lot more competitive in the international markets, or resign ourselve to a much lower standard of living. That's true in or out of the EU.
.

Flecc, agreed with much of this, but as you say it is of our own making. I remember vividly the furore in the media when our captains of industry were tripping over themselves to export whole factories to the far East aided and abetted by Thatcher. Our major problem since the 1970's has always been twofold, firstly the abject failure of all governments since then both tory and labour to properly invest in education and in particular, further vocational education. Secondly the failure of the many industries privatised during the Thatcher years to invest, instead harvesting the profits by increasing shareholder dividends and massive bonuses to executives instead of new plant and equipment. Now even the tory party acknowledges these failings and have actually started back on the path of nationalisation of the railways for instance.

Market forces left to run riot have placed our utility services into dire straits with raw sewage being pumped daily into our rivers and seashores, when I walk along the promenade in Bournemouth it takes me back to when I was a young man in the 1960's, walking the same promenade and seeing the sewage come back in on the turning tide, it's like deja-vu, we haven't learned a thing in the intervening 55 years. The executives of the water companies have really earned their obscene bonus packages haven't they?

 

[vidtek]

Their gain is mostly negated by Inflation. What's next then?

They are now in a far stronger barganing position than previously when one job had many applicants. Now the applicants have many more jobs to choose from, I know which set of circumstances I would prefer as a job applicant.

 

[flecc]

Their gain is mostly negated by Inflation. What's next then?

Even more widespread disillusion, despair and resignation.

The 25% of working age not employed rather than being unemployed might increase still further, since if one is going to be in poverty, there's no point in working for that disbenefit.
.

 

[flecc]

Flecc, agreed with much of this, but as you say it is of our own making. I remember vividly the furore in the media when our captains of industry were tripping over themselves to export whole factories to the far East aided and abetted by Thatcher. Our major problem since the 1970's has always been twofold, firstly the abject failure of all governments since then both tory and labour to properly invest in education and in particular, further vocational education. Secondly the failure of the many industries privatised during the Thatcher years to invest, instead harvesting the profits by increasing shareholder dividends and massive bonuses to executives instead of new plant and equipment. Now even the tory party acknowledges these failings and have actually started back on the path of nationalisation of the railways for instance.

Market forces left to run riot have placed our utility services into dire straits with raw sewage being pumped daily into our rivers and seashores, when I walk along the promenade in Bournemouth it takes me back to when I was a young man in the 1960's, walking the same promenade and seeing the sewage come back in on the turning tide, it's like deja-vu, we haven't learned a thing in the intervening 55 years.

100% agreed.
.

The executives of the water companies have really earned their obscene bonus packages haven't they?

Even worse here where Thames Water are owned by an Australian company. They've reformed it into a complex of companies each carrying out functions for each other and having separate accounting. It all looks like a device for profit expansion and tax dodging.

Here's today's structure of what once used to be just Thames Water Limited:

 

[Woosh]

They are now in a far stronger barganing position than previously when one job had many applicants. Now the applicants have many more jobs to choose from, I know which set of circumstances I would prefer as a job applicant.

I agree with that point of view.
However, our problems remain those of an ageing population, we need more young people to help the aged. Where will we find them?

 

[flecc]

I agree with that point of view.
However, our problems remain those of an ageing population, we need more young people to help the aged. Where will we find them?

In the end we'll have to welcome and keep those arriving in rubber boats.

We should take a leaf out of Germany's book. When desperately short of young men after WW2, they invited in 3 million from Turkey. At the time it wasn't a popular move among the remaining Germans, but since then they've so thoroughly integrated and intermarried that the successive generations are very German now. And since then they've welcomed in successive millions of refugees from Asia, the Middle East and Africa and put them to work too.

And look where they are economically compared to us.

We don't have an immigration problem, only a policies problem.

Some 180,000 young Russian men have fled from conscription, welcoming them would have been a good start and far more welcome than their corrupt oligarchs in residence here. A high proportion of those young men are farm workers too, a perfect fit for our needs.
.

 

[vidtek]

I agree with that point of view.
However, our problems remain those of an ageing population, we need more young people to help the aged. Where will we find them?

Some cynics and conspiracy nuts have intimated the covid epidemic was a strategically designed vehicle to cull the numbers of the aged people in our population in order to reduce the burden of our taxation and social security systems. I personally think that is a bridge too far, but the outcome does make me wonder sometimes.....

As Flecc has said, we need to train our young people properly, and ensure we have fewer economic migrants and more healthy young men and women instead.

 

[vidtek]

100% agreed.
.


Even worse here where Thames Water are owned by an Australian company. They've reformed it into a complex of companies each carrying out functions for each other and having separate accounting. It all looks like a device for profit expansion and tax dodging.

Here's today's structure of what once used to be just Thames Water Limited:

View attachment 50344

Bloomin Aussies they get in everywhere...

 

[flecc]

Bloomin Aussies they get in everywhere... View attachment 50361View attachment 50362

No problem, just leave our water company alone!
.

 

[Woosh]

Some cynics and conspiracy nuts have intimated the covid epidemic was a strategically designed vehicle to cull the numbers of the aged people in our population in order to reduce the burden of our taxation and social security systems. I personally think that is a bridge too far, but the outcome does make me wonder sometimes..

why shouldn't we have the right to decide for ourselves? I know of one case where a care home charges residents' families £7,000 a week for a single bed and 3 meals a day. Some of the residents have early dementia. It's time that we should be allowed to go in the manner we choose.

 

[vidtek]

why shouldn't we have the right to decide for ourselves? I know of one case where a care home charges residents' families £7,000 a week for a single bed and 3 meals a day. Some of the residents have early dementia. It's time that we should be allowed to go in the manner we choose.

My final ambition is to be shot in bed at 85 by a jealous husband. Now that's a fitting way to expire.....

 

[Bonzo Banana]

Brexit relies on cheaper GBP and lower taxation.
Both are fine if you are Sir Radcliffe but not if you work for amazon or uber.

Surely Brexit is about setting your own rules independently to fix the economy and might mean higher taxation in places to create funds for investment elsewhere. A logical approach would be to have higher sales tax on economy damaging products like cars most of which are imported and use that extra taxation to make strategic and structural improvements to our own economy perhaps reducing taxation on manufacturing and investing in factories. If you are making the point about devaluing sterling that is something necessary to compete in the EU because previously we couldn't compete there hence the destruction of industry and huge debts. Outside the EU sterling could be higher if we don't have a free trade agreement with the EU.

Ultimately we have to return to a trading surplus no one not even countries does well by throwing their money away. Focusing on tax or sterling is not a logical approach. Focus on policies to restore a trading surplus so wealth is accruing in our economy to generate social benefits and pay our debts.

 

[Bonzo Banana]

Time will tell indeed, and it will lead to disappointment for you as our decline continues and the EU overall improves, albeit variably.

Look again at the graph Woosh posted, but this time with an open mind for a change, not ignoring the gains from being in the EU. Initially our debt fell due to North Sea oil, no credit to the EU. But then we enjoyed a long period of lower debt thanks to the benefits of membership trading.

That was brought to an end by the sub prime disaster, the stupidity of the USA and Britain's investing grossly overvaluing property in a fools paradise until the bubble burst. So from 2008 you see a huge increase in debt thanks to vast sums of borrowed money spent in bailing out the banks during the recession the sub prime caused. Nothing to do with the EU where their property markets are infinitely more sensible than ours, the problem caused entirely by ourselves.

And then of course Covid struck and once again we grossly mishandled that, creating anothet billion or so of debt with the idiocy of paying businesses to close and paying people not to work. I argued bitterly against that in the Brexit thread, drawing comparisons particularly with Sweden due to some very similar circumstances. They didn't do what we did, relying largely on voluntary action so not suffering a huge increase in debt. I was proved right since we ended up with 40% more covid deaths than Sweden pro rata, despite all the wasteful spending.

So once again that huge debt increase from Covid was nothing to do with the EU, being entirely of our own foolish making.

The graph says it all, the EU helping us to have a stable lower debt which we wrecked twice with first, sub prime costs, then Covid unnecessary costs.

However I do fully agree with you about the stupidity of living in trading deficit while borrowing to maintain living standards. But the underlying cause there is a our very low productivity making us uncompetitive through high costs, and that certainly isn't the EU's fault.

We've a choice of ways out of our mess, either get a whole lot more competitive in the international markets, or resign ourselve to a much lower standard of living. That's true in or out of the EU.
.

I totally disagree with your analysis. It makes no sense and doesn't work with the data at all. It beggars belief anyone can have such a ridiculous viewpoint to be honest. The only way you can accept such a viewpoint is if you are so politicised and locked to your own viewpoint that you ignore the huge number of companies and factories that have disappeared because they couldn't compete in the EU. How on earth can a UK worker who gets a minimum of about £10 an hour compete with a worker paid £4 in a similar factory. It's just absolutely moronic to suggest somehow a UK worker can work 2.5x as fast/hard to compete. Yes companies like Nissan in Sunderland have been shown to have some of the most efficient and productive workers in the world but still the cost per unit of car is high because of wages and other costs to run a factory in the UK. It's just not realistic at all. Somehow the UK had huge industrial capacity before joining the EU but now only has a small fraction of that and according to you that is suddenly because the UK lost productivity purely by coincidence of joining the EU.

I honestly think your viewpoint is beyond ridiculous and heavily politicised and typical of the ridiculous economic analysis you get at the BBC which is probably where you got such a ridiculous opinion.

However again if we are un-productive that is a reason to stay out of the EU not stay in because we will continue to have a huge trading deficit and pay them huge sums we can't afford. Even your ridiculous analysis would suggest staying out of the EU.