We need to have some perspective. The chances of any of us dying from COVID-19 are only about the same as dying of any cause over the next 12 months. About 600,000 people die every year in the UK. That's around 1700-1800 deaths per day at this time of year. There may be 1000 deaths per day of people with COVID-19 but that is not the same as 1000 people dying each day of COVID-19. We don't know yet how many excess deaths there will be this year due to COVID-19 but it will be somewhere between zero & 600,000.
The danger of COVID-19 is not really to the individual. The danger is in vast numbers of very sick patients overwhelming the NHS & the effects on the economy & society of anything up to 600,000 deaths over the next month or two. The whole point of the lockdown is to reduce the rate at which the infection spreads & to keep deaths & seriously ill to a manageable level. It will not reduce the total numbers who die. Only a vaccine can prevent the disease. The NHS has so far been able to manage well & if this continues then we can start progressively easing off on the lockdown.
We are still only months into covid-19 and even the simplest level of observation of its effects is very incomplete.
For those who die, obviously, the chapter has closed. For those who survive, who knows what longer term effects might be?
I offer a selection of some of the better-known effects of some viral infections on at least some people. (Yes, these are not all strictly my words – collected from various places and re-assembled to make sense.)
The film Awakenings is about what is now widely believed to be the effects of the 1915-1926 encephalitis lethargica pandemic. Post-encephalitic syndromes varied widely: sometimes they proceeded rapidly, leading to profound disability or death; sometimes very slowly; sometimes they progressed to a certain point and then stayed at this point for years or decades; and sometimes, following their initial onslaught, they remitted and disappeared. Post-encephalitic Parkinsonism is perhaps the most widely recognized of such syndromes.
Shingles is a very well-known and unpleasant viral disease which sometimes (much more often in older patients) results in Postherpetic neuralgia. Several types of pain may occur including continuous burning pain, episodes of severe shooting or electric-like pain, and a heightened sensitivity to gentle touch which would not otherwise cause pain (mechanical allodynia) or to painful stimuli (hyperalgesia).
More generally, influenza and other viruses can cause a diverse array of physical and psychological symptoms. The effects of pro-inflammatory cytokines can cause a diverse array of physical and psychological symptoms. When this happens it is referred to as sickness behaviour.
We have already seen widespread discussion of the theory that a cytokine storm is the actual cause of death in many cases. Specifically, fingers have been pointed at IL-6 and the use of IL-6 inhibitors as a treatment.
Even if the death rate falls to nothing, I’ll not be surprised if covid-19 has further fallout potentially affecting many who have survived infection, possibly even with mild symptoms.
