Hybrid cars

[Chris M]

I hear battery technology is due to move forward over the next five years or so. Batteries will become cheaper, carry more power for size and charge more quickly. This will make electric cars more viable for everyone and I expect sales to really take off. Hyundai appear to be somewhere near the front of the pack at the moment developing a solid state Li battery. Others are looking to make batteries out of more abundant materials = much cheaper. The problem is that there are likely to be a number of competing technologies for batteries so it will be a bit like VHS vs Beta vs Phillips for a few years.

I would like to see an annual Lands End to John O'Groats EV run with ordinary everyday production EVs. This would show just how viable or not they really are. It would also show progress over the years as times to complete the journey reduce. I expect that within five or six years the journey time will be very similar to or only say half an hour more than an internal combustion engined car.

As EVs become the norm sales of petrol and diesel will reduce. The reduction in volume will lead to processing and distribution becoming less efficient so the price will start to rise.

At some point in the future ebikes will feel the benefit of the billions that automotive manufacturers are ploughing into battery research.

 

[Benjahmin]

I wish an electric vehicle would suit me, I really do.
I'm 65 and totally debt free. I live rurally (nearest bank branch is now a 28 mile round journey) in a terraced house with no driveway or garage. I've never had the capital, or wish, to own a new car (the initial depreciation I find staggering). Nearest family live a three and a half hour drive away.
So it seems that the only version would suit would be a self charging hybrid, and they just don't make sense to me. Carrying the weight of a standard i.c. engine and drive train (inc. fuel load), plus an electric motor/generator, plus a battery - how on earth does all that weight stack up to lower fuel consumption?
Now the all electric vehicle with range extender idea seems much more viable to me. An i.c. engine tuned to run at the specific revs that a generator needs (say 1000rpm) would surely be far more fuel efficient than one that needs to cover a broad rev/power band. Emissions and noise could then be very tightly controlled. The vehicle would lack the weight of a convential drive train so would be able to achieve very high mpg equivalent, I would think. Alas the need to still plug in to charge would still make this a no go for me.

Also, I wonder what type of second hand market there will ever be for e.v.'s? The used vehicle sales arena generally doesn't have a glowing reputation. 'Honest John' telling me that,'This batteries a minter mate' and offering a 3 month guarentee, isn't going to work here. There's going to need to be some sort of testing/reporting system for the battery condition, that makes sense to the public, yet has transparency - that's a big ask.

I am on the cusp of needing to replace an old vehicle (a long serving Vitara - bought for it's general road/4 wheel/trailor towing ability). Sadly I think it's going to have to be another i.c. car and I fully expect to be having to pay emissions charges when going to see family. I can also forsee such vehicles being banned from an increasing number of cities and towns limiting holiday expeditions.

 

[flecc]

I'm hoping to see an affordable electric with a realistic 250 mile range sometime soon (i.e. before my current car conks out) - that would let me see the grandchildren without having to worry about finding a charging point away from home.

The affordable bit is the snag, it's likely to be around 8 years before the prices of i.c. and e-cars start to match. That's when the various bans on i.c use start to bite more and production of them is reduced as e-car production rises.

There's affordable ones with half that range so it might be worth investigating the available charge points. There's thousands of them now and some places are very well served with numbers of rapid points.

Member Cyclezee is an e-car fan living at Milton Keynes and driving a Renault Zoe and he sometimes drives several hundred miles north without any problems. His car has a warm weather range of up to about 170 miles so he probably charges at about 130 mile intervals.
.

 

[flecc]

idk id probable kill it in 12 months if i could drive pmsl they dont tell you how far it will go at full speed as you dont wanna know lol

Yes they do, my Leaf for example they declare maximum at 89 mph. It's one of the superiorities of e-cars that they don't have to have top speeds far over the legal limits everywhere that an i.c car's engine limitations end up with.

If that seems baffling, I'll happily explain why.
.

 

[Andy-Mat]

I'm genuinely sorry that I've offended you Andy, that was certainly not my intention so I apologise for my perhaps clumsy wording. However I didn't say you were wrong, I said only that I thought you were, so that was my opinion only.

Politicians opinions don't come into my e-car assessment and it was very wrong of you to say I'd been conned by them. I'm somewhat older than you, ex motor trade with lifelong driving experience and plenty of technical experience as a qualified mechanic so make my own judgements on usefulness. For me and many others whose usage is suited to an e-car, they are definitely not a con and I genuinely don't understand how you can say that.

I accept that one is no use to you and other high mileage drivers, but I won't have it that I've been conned when you have no idea of my reasons for driving electric. I've liked the characteristics of e-cars for some years but didn't buy one before since they couldn't meet my needs at the time. But with the advances as of last year a couple of affordable ones did, so I bought and haven't regretted it for one moment since. I will never own an i.c. car again, such is my e-car's superiority for my usage and circumstances.
.

Thank you for the apology.
Over the next 25 to 50 years, better batteries and better cars with very rapid recharging and much more "miles" under the bonnet will be developed. But "NOW" they are simply not good enough for many of us, me included, and I am retired!
I am visiting the UK at this time, and getting here from the middle of Germany only took 8 hours for nearly 800km (Diesel Car!) distance. I am on my own, and tend to stop less, also no caravan on this trip!
Even with a modern e-car, I suggest that it would take at least twice that time, probably with an extra hotel stay = more money!
I usually come to the UK with a 1.5 ton caravan, another impossible feat for an e-car! Furthermore, I live in a country with relatively warm/hot (above 40°C) summers and cold winters,(down to -28°C where I live some winters) needing both AC or heating at the appropriate times, seriously reducing the possible distances to be traveled, before recharging.
A Hybrid is the only "modern" answer that does a reasonable job for all distances, and will probably stay that way, at least till atomic fusion makes some serious breakthroughs ! The Chinese have recently made some important steps, achieving 100 million °C (hotter than the Sun) for 10 seconds!!!
I personally doubt that any really serious changes with batteries will happen till I am long "gone", the need for at least 1000 KM range, and full AC or heating as well!!
Then it will start to become interesting for many more people!!
You are one of the people that the current technology suits. Good for you, but wait till a battery replacement is eventually needed.......the current thought is 5-8 years of life expectancy, then a new /refurbished battery, most likely at a higher cost that the residual value of the car at that time!!!
That will remain until the battery technology is not only at least 10 times better in distance/power and only say a tenth of the current price to replace! Several new battery types in development are sowing promise. Once they appear, the current cars will become valueless!!
There are several examples of the REAL cost of an electric car today, including everything from manufacturing and 10 years approximate usage. They actually cost more over that period, and are just as dirty to make, as many more conventional models! But you have to do your "homework" very very carefully!!!
Plus we should not forget that the batteries can cause serious fires and explosions (a lot of e-bikers have experience that already!). Recently, here in Germany a car transporter caught fire, which burnt the cars as well.
Two of the cars were BRAND NEW ELECTRIC CARS, and once the batteries were on fire, the local fire department could not cool them enough to extinguish them!
They fought the e-batteries on those two cars ONLY, for more than 12 hours.
Autobahn closed, no traffic could use that side of the autobahn, till a huge tank had been procured, transported there, then filled with water, and each car had to be totally immersed and completely cooled down, an hour each car!. That is the first video.

The clean up costs millions after such a fire, and will have to be eventually put on the insurance premiums of such cars, that is now happening in Germany. Insurance costs are certainly starting to "dampen" the speed at which electric cars are being bought! Apparently, most sales are lost this way, IF insurance is checked first....
People have died in car fires since cars were first made, usually due to being in a road accident, but it is happening that e-cars are spontaneously catching fire, NO ACCIDENT, and the people inside did not have time to exit.
I want nothing to do with the current technology on that point alone......burnt to death is not my chosen way of exiting this world!! Even if it is fairly rare, though looking on YouTube, it appears to be not as rare as many owners would hope!!
The poison gases produced by a battery are apparently partly to blame for deaths, disabling the people before they can get out! A good reason to drive a diesel!!
My children are grown up, but they also do not feel that the time is right for this technology either, neither do their spouses!!!
regards
Andy
PS. This may prove interesting to read:- https://ecowarriorprincess.net/2018/09/electric-cars-how-much-they-really-cost-the-environment-3/
The children involved in collecting Cobalt for Lithium battery production in Africa have also a pretty poor time of it as well! Many do not even know this!!!:- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-cobalt-mining-congo-cbsnews-investigation-ziki-swaze/

 

[flecc]

I'm 65 and totally debt free. I live rurally (nearest bank branch is now a 28 mile round journey) in a terraced house with no driveway or garage.

This is a very big problem shared by over 25% of all properties nationwide, no access for home charging. Here in London, the ideal place for e-cars, its some 50% of all properties. However there are solutions here, for example we now have some 400 lamp post charge points from one expanding company and there's many other options.

I've never had the capital, or wish, to own a new car (the initial depreciation I find staggering). Nearest family live a three and a half hour drive away.

Your trouble is the early stage of e-cars, they've only been around for some 8 years so even four year olds have very limited ranges, half of today's, severely depressing their value. Once they 've been around for 30 years or so the market will be consistent and s/h cars more useful

So it seems that the only version would suit would be a self charging hybrid, and they just don't make sense to me. Carrying the weight of a standard i.c. engine and drive train (inc. fuel load), plus an electric motor/generator, plus a battery - how on earth does all that weight stack up to lower fuel consumption?

I agree, it's not just the technical objections you voice but the very high cost of buying dual power chains. The only reason they are enjoying some success at present is the range advantage for long journeys

Now the all electric vehicle with range extender idea seems much more viable to me. An i.c. engine tuned to run at the specific revs that a generator needs (say 1000rpm) would surely be far more fuel efficient than one that needs to cover a broad rev/power band. Emissions and noise could then be very tightly controlled. The vehicle would lack the weight of a convential drive train so would be able to achieve very high mpg equivalent, I would think. Alas the need to still plug in to charge would still make this a no go for me.

It would seem this way, but strangely they have not been very successful. GM's Chevrolet Volt led the way but it has many disadvantages. Firstly its batteries are in a long centre console, reducing it to a four seater only. Secondly, to achieve long range over its up to 80 miles on the battery, it needs a 2 litre charging engine so it's got many of the hybrid disadvantages.

That was followed by China's BYD brand that followed the same pattern with the centre console battery and 2 litre charge engine. However BYD changed tack and are now the world's largest producer of fully electric vehicle with huge numbers on Chinese roads. We have 200 BYD electric only buses in London running some electric only routes and we are buying more. Here's one local to me

Also, I wonder what type of second hand market there will ever be for e.v.'s? There's going to need to be some sort of testing/reporting system for the battery condition, that makes sense to the public, yet has transparency - that's a big ask.

After a long period of a very poor s/h market, it's suddenly bucked up in 2018/9 due to the shortages of new e-car supplies. So it's quite good now with some surprisingly high prices that beat i.c cars. When struggling to find a new one to buy last yearI saw some year old Leafs offered at close to new list price. The new e-car shortages have been very real, I had to go 253 miles to Lancashire in the end to get mine last July.

Knowing second hand battery condition isn't a problem. Some older models have a capacity readout on the dashboard, but since that caused some owners to constantly watch and worry it's been removed. But it can still be checked since by going online the methods to bring it up are freely available and any e-car dealer can check if required. Those checks are part of the routine services anyway.
.

 

[flecc]

Thank you for the apology.
Over the next 25 to 50 years, better batteries and better cars with very rapid recharging and much more "miles" under the bonnet will be developed. But "NOW" they are simply not good enough for many of us, me included, and I am retired!
I am visiting the UK at this time, and getting here from the middle of Germany only took 8 hours for nearly 800km (Diesel Car!) distance. I am on my own, and tend to stop less, also no caravan on this trip!
Even with a modern e-car, I suggest that it would take at least twice that time, probably with an extra hotel stay = more money!
I usually come to the UK with a 1.5 ton caravan, another impossible feat for an e-car! Furthermore, I live in a country with relatively warm/hot (above 40°C) summers and cold winters,(down to -28°C where I live some winters) needing both AC or heating at the appropriate times, seriously reducing the possible distances to be traveled, before recharging.
A Hybrid is the only "modern" answer that does a reasonable job for all distances, and will probably stay that way, at least till atomic fusion makes some serious breakthroughs ! The Chinese have recently made some important steps, achieving 100 million °C (hotter than the Sun) for 10 seconds!!!
I personally doubt that any really serious changes with batteries will happen till I am long "gone", the need for at least 1000 KM range, and full AC or heating as well!!
Then it will start to become interesting for many more people!!
You are one of the people that the current technology suits. Good for you, but wait till a battery replacement is eventually needed.......the current thought is 5-8 years of life expectancy, then a new /refurbished battery, most likely at a higher cost that the residual value of the car at that time!!!
That will remain until the battery technology is not only at least 10 times better in distance/power and only say a tenth of the current price to replace! Several new battery types in development are sowing promise. Once they appear, the current cars will become valueless!!
There are several examples of the REAL cost of an electric car today, including everything from manufacturing and 10 years approximate usage. They actually cost more over that period, and are just as dirty to make, as many more conventional models! But you have to do your "homework" very very carefully!!!
Plus we should not forget that the batteries can cause serious fires and explosions (a lot of e-bikers have experience that already!). Recently, here in Germany a car transporter caught fire, which burnt the cars as well.
Two of the cars were BRAND NEW ELECTRIC CARS, and once the batteries were on fire, the local fire department could not cool them enough to extinguish them!
They fought the e-batteries on those two cars ONLY, for more than 12 hours.
Autobahn closed, no traffic could use that side of the autobahn, till a huge tank had been procured, transported there, then filled with water, and each car had to be totally immersed and completely cooled down, an hour each car!. That is the first video.

The clean up costs millions after such a fire, and will have to be eventually put on the insurance premiums of such cars, that is now happening in Germany. Insurance costs are certainly starting to "dampen" the speed at which electric cars are being bought! Apparently, most sales are lost this way, IF insurance is checked first....
People have died in car fires since cars were first made, usually due to being in a road accident, but it is happening that e-cars are spontaneously catching fire, NO ACCIDENT, and the people inside did not have time to exit.
I want nothing to do with the current technology on that point alone......burnt to death is not my chosen way of exiting this world!! Even if it is fairly rare, though looking on YouTube, it appears to be not as rare as many owners would hope!!
The poison gases produced by a battery are apparently partly to blame for deaths, disabling the people before they can get out! A good reason to drive a diesel!!
My children are grown up, but they also do not feel that the time is right for this technology either, neither do their spouses!!!
regards
Andy
PS. This may prove interesting to read:- https://ecowarriorprincess.net/2018/09/electric-cars-how-much-they-really-cost-the-environment-3/
The children involved in collecting Cobalt for Lithium battery production in Africa have also a pretty poor time of it as well! Many do not even know this!!!:- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-cobalt-mining-congo-cbsnews-investigation-ziki-swaze/

All been gone into by me long ago Andy, and I'm not disagreeing with most of what you've posted, though you have tried to paint the worst possible picture, which won't happen in most cases. For example, Nissan's Leaf is the world's most successful selling e-car and none have ever had a traction battery fire, so that doesn't concern me in the slightest. Meanwhile during the Leafs eight years thousands of i.c cars have burnt out and many people have been burnt to death in them by fires caused in crashes. So why people worry about very rare traction battery fires when they drive around in cars with petrol tanks across the back of their cars and batteries that catch fire under their bonnets baffles me. Tesla in my view have been very irresponsible, taking big risks in their keenness to promote e-cars and automated driving, thus creating much of the problem you illustrate, but they will pay the price for that as other companies like Nissan and Renault continue to show the way.

But all the objections are not going to stop e-cars gradually taking over the market and hybrids will have to disappear as the i.c. car bans bite. It's necessary to stop the gradual poisoning of people and the environment which are already very real and a huge problem in urban areas.

However, I'm sure e-cars will never take on the sort of long journeys you describe and I see a very different future. It's one in which those journeys won't be done or maybe even allowed by car but done by public transport such as trains. I see the anachronism of the caravan on the roads disappearing completely through the unsuitability of towing using batteries for power.

Many of today's people won't like such changes, but to tomorrow's people they will be normal. The days of anyone travelling anywhere by personal car will end.
.

 

[Fat Rat]

flecc can you see the price of e-cars coming down in the next couple of years to that of a similar spec i.c. car? I know they have much lower running costs so over say a 6 or 7 year period the costs are probably very similar. However it is still a big chuck of money (for me anyway) to splash out up front for an e-car in comparison to an i.c. car.

It's not the initial cost that worry's me as I will never buy a new car of any type mainly because of the massive money loss but longevity of course I refer to the battery
Most cars I buy are usually 8yrs old plus so where does that leave the battery state and the cost of the electric vehicle compared to it's i c relative
I personally see a big issue with this at present

 

[tommie]

The days of anyone travelling anywhere by personal car will end.
.

Just can`t see that. People in general want an easy life, step out the door and into a car, off you go.
There`s no way you want to get to some Train Station, Bus Depot or whatever in the worst of british winters.
Public Transport in these islands is archaic, the infastructure is totally out of date.

 

[flecc]

Just can`t see that. People in general want an easy life, step out the door and into a car, off you go.
There`s no way you want to get to some Train Station, Bus Depot or whatever in the worst of british winters.
Public Transport in these islands is archaic, the infastructure is totally out of date.

I agree with the sentiments, but that will have to change to some extent.

Take note I didn't say all car journeys, I only said anywhere, such as Andy's huge transcontinental journey. Most of today's personal car ownership and use will continue, but the very long journeys probably won't as e-cars take over and public transport improves in consequence.

Here's an example as proof. Comparatively wealthy London once had the highest car ownership in the country, yet now it has the lowest. That's happened due to congestion, congestion charging, parking difficulties, car costs, big improvements in public transport and big increases in cycling. At one time all of my many friends in London owned cars, but now only two do, and one of them right on the fringe of Kent. Most find it just not worthwhile any more, frequent public transport and the odd bike riding sufficing at low overall cost. The biggest change is in young driving, a huge proportion not bothering to even start now, aided by public transport being free up to 16 or 18 if in full time education. That inculcates the public transport habit and the young prefer its sociability when in large groups.

Even I as a lifelong car owner and driver chose to use public transport back in 2011 when I had to do several Autumn/Winter journeys into Central London. The route from my outer fringe home meant, bus, tram, surface train, underground and final short walk. Those five stages make it look like it would take for ever, but on average it took about an hour, and it would take that long driving my car in congested London and finding somewhere to park at an inconvenient distance from where I was going.
.

 

[D C]

However, I'm sure e-cars will never take on the sort of long journeys you describe and I see a very different future. It's one in which those journeys won't be done or maybe even allowed by car but done by public transport such as trains. I see the anachronism of the caravan on the roads disappearing completely through the unsuitability of towing using batteries for power.

Many of today's people won't like such changes, but to tomorrow's people they will be normal. The days of anyone travelling anywhere by personal car will end.

If we think sensibly about it this is logically what will be forced upon us.
Spot on Tony.

 

[flecc]

Most cars I buy are usually 8yrs old plus so where does that leave the battery state and the cost of the electric vehicle compared to it's i c relative
I personally see a big issue with this at present

It certainly is, but it's one we'll get used to as the market adjusts and e-cars eventually in the longer term becoming the only option.

We've already got used to it with e-bikes which at three or more years old are only worth a fraction of the new price, simply because we know we'll need to spend hundreds on a new battery.

The same will happen with e-cars, like the e-bikes becoming two part priced, vehicle and battery considered separately for value. That has already happened for most e-Renaults which have battery leasing and only the car bought and sold.
.

 

[anotherkiwi]

Owning a car is so 20th century... I am looking forward to rental fleets of electric cars - the rental should cost less (I bet it won't though...) but the driver still saves on filling the car up.

 

[Nev]

.
How near do you folks think we are to someone bringing out a decent e-motorcycle for around the £10,000 to £12,000 level?

Well things seem to be moving much faster than we thought. I have just been reading in MCN about three new electric motorcycles about to come out.

The bottom of the range is the Lightning Strike Standard priced at £9895, 88 bhp and a top speed of 150 mph with a range of 70 to 100 miles from a 10 kWh battery.

The next model up is the Strike Mid, priced at £12960, has the same bhp as the Standard but with a 15 kWh battery gives a range of 105 to 150 miles.

The top model is the Strike Carbon Edition, priced at £15250, this has a more powerful motor providing 117 bhp, and with a battery of 20 kWh gives a range of 150 to 200 miles.

More information can be found here.
ps://electrek.co/2019/03/28/lightning-strike-electric-motorcycle-launch/

 

[Nev]

If I was to buy the top of the range model do you think I could finally go faster than soundwave?

My money would still be on SW.

 

[soundwave]

If I was to buy the top of the range model do you think I could finally go faster than soundwave?

My money would still be on SW.

 

[vfr400]

How near do you folks think we are to someone bringing out a decent e-motorcycle for around the £10,000 to £12,000 level?

We have the Zero S for about £10,000. The more expensive 14.4kWh version with the range extender battery can do well over 200 miles of city driving. It can also do nearly 100 mph. I think you can still get a £1500 cashback from the government to reduce the price a bit.
https://www.zeromotorcycles.com/eu/zero-s

 

[vfr400]

The top model is the Strike Carbon Edition, priced at £15250, this has a more powerful motor providing 117 bhp, and with a battery of 20 kWh gives a range of 150 to 200 miles.

Be careful of those figures. You can do some simple sums. You need about 12kW to run a medium sized, medium streamlined motorbike at 70 mph, so a 20kWh battery will last for about 90 minutes, so around 110 miles as long as you don't have the wind against you.

 

[Jon Matthews]

I have BMW 330E which I'm delighted with. Its economical, reliable, very fast and comfortable. My usual commute is 20 miles there and 20 back which I can do 95% of time on the battery. I'm lucky as I can charge for free at work. If it wasn't a company car with benefit in kind tax relief, it wouldnt make economical sense. All I'm saving money wise is the cost of 20 miles worth of petrol each day. Not a great saving, but better than a kick in the teeth. Electric vehicles are here to stay, so get used to it. The main point of EV is there's no polution on the road as it's much easier to deal with that at the power station. Electric vehicle are not going to be cheap to run but future legislation will make it a no brianer in future. Just my opinion from an industry insider.

 

[Charliefox]

Quote: e-car services being particularly very low cost. And e-cars don't pay VED (road tax), have a far larger purchase subsidy, sometimes have free car parking and charging and are exempt any congestion/pollution charges and the like.
There is a large fly in the ointment here though, isn't there? For starters, how long do you think the subsidy will last as e-cars proliferate. Ditto the lost VED will have to be replaced somehow and the even greater loss of fuel duty and VAT on top of it. We already have horrible pot holes everwhere, especially on local roads. Then there is the low servicing costs which at present keep the motor trade afloat since they make little from selling new cars. And electric cars may last longer since there is less to go wrong with old age. Think catalysts, exhausts etc. Only the replacement cost of e-car batteries. Which will make the sale of second hand e-cars a problem. I suspect that we may end up with being charged by the mile to use our cars, of any sort, which could cut congestion and unneccessary journeys.