E-bikes will not exist in 10 years time

[flecc]

The whole EV category has the potential to be highly disruptive to established way of doing things. I think energy breakthroughs will be akin to breakthroughs in semiconductor technology - smaller, faster, cheaper, cooler.

This is the bit I don't see, there's only so much that can be done with the atoms within a battery case, short of splitting them. The vast gulf between e-vehicles that draw their power from rails or cables and those that carry it around makes the point well, they don't even begin to compare.

Your old steam car point is apt, since at the outset both battery and steam vehicles were well ahead of ic ones in every respect. Over one hundred years later now, they've never at any point been able to keep up and will never get near ic now. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate in the short and medium term, and in the long term our lives will have to change, less travel and that which still exists being mainly on public transport.

 

[lemmy]

As a rule of thumb, I've looked up some relative capacities - petrol provides 12-14 MJ per kilogram mass, the best commercial batteries provide 1.5 MJ/kg but at twice the volume.

So, taking my Kalkhoff 10ah battery, it gives me a range of 27 miles the way I use it. Petrol to the same volume would give around 450 miles on the bike.

It seems to me that further development of battery power is highly necessary for practical replacement of a car's IC engine but for electric bikes, while welcome, is not necessary.

As far as I know, an order of power storage increase of 15 times is not even being envisaged for batteries

Obviously there are other factors to take into account and these are pretty rough figures. I am neither a mathematician or an engineer. But as Flecc says, the future is less travel (already happening in the case of cruises and air travel, due to cost), and more use of public transport.

For we folk sensible enough employ our muscles, electrically assisted or not, the future looks much the same as the present. Get on yer bike

 

[morphix]

I don't know if I replied already..but here's my take on it... although e-bikes may not become a mainstream transport item, I think e-bikes are here to stay regardless of what happens with scooters and battery technology, for one simple reason.. you can do far more with an e-bike (especially a folding one) than you can with a scooter. You can't use scooters on pavements, you can't go cross-country and you can't carry them over your shoulder onto trains or put them into the boot of your car ;-)

This flexibility gives e-bikes a unique place in the market I think and people will always want them for these reasons. Plus I can't ever see bicycle and cycling enthusiasts losing interest in them either which surely must be a sizable market just by itself.

 

[flecc]

The elephant that could be in the future room will be the matter of personal transport. If we have to increasingly abandon private cars eventually, there will be personal mass transport provisions to serve the community's needs.

That could badly dent prospects for all powered two wheelers, especially in view of our UK climate. In my area frequent feeder buses to the interchange and the fairly new tram network are heavily used while bicycles and scooters are notably rare these days.

 

[yselmike]

After a 9-10 hour shift in my kitchen at work a walk to the bus stop and a 30 min bus ride home I totaly seize up.
I was in agony lower back,hips thighs and knees,then my miniscus went as it happens dodging a bike as we both
tried to go through amber lights,had the op and recoverd its as good as its going to be.
The only way that I will have healthy knees keep my weight under control get some fresh air etc etc is on a bike!!!
So an e-bike gets me to and from work a 40km round trip, I really struggle on my road bike its a breeze on my Flyer s.
The other option is we all get e-bikes not they become obselete they work for us older but still working folks, trust me
as we all have to work till our 70s we will need e-bikes they will be the only option to keep us healthy and mobile.

 

[yselmike]

Dont forget there is no bad weather only bad clothing the snow and ice will get me on the bus
and a proper storm but rain is no problem.

 

[flecc]

as we all have to work till our 70s we will need e-bikes they will be the only option to keep us healthy and mobile.

While I agree with much of what you've said, bikes are not the only option. I'm 75, fit, 68 kilos, and for a long time now my main souce of fitness is walking, not cycling. At this time of the year when cycling can be very unpleasant at times through weather and road conditions, walking predominates for me in terms of hours of exercise.

Dont forget there is no bad weather only bad clothing the snow and ice will get me on the bus and a proper storm but rain is no problem.

Maybe for you, personally I hate riding in the rain smothered in waterproofs.
.