With your reasoning, I should say a car has 100's of millions of parts if you want to take each and every transistor and threads of a wire into account and an ebike has hundreds of thousands. Maybe your not happy at that level either and want to get into the atomic or even quantum measurements? And yes, I have taken many bikes apart and built many bikes - I been doing that since childhood, it's just like Lego.
Devil's advocate
- Thread starter verntern
- Start date
I have a Lafree bought 6 years ago & the only thing that has every gone wrong was the Panasonic charger! I am lost without this bike, my hips & knees can't stand big walks now & the bike takes the weight off them.
Derrick - Llanberis
Derrick - Llanberis
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Given the latest breed of economical, cheap to run, affordable cars that are now reaching the market, it's likely that less people will be worrying about fuel prices and will not be seeking alternative methods of transport in the near future. We have just had a leap in fuel prices and governments imposing strict tax implications for high polluter's which has prompted manufacturers to improve the efficiency of their cars. When these cars start to become more mainstream it will take another leap in fuel prices to start worrying people about fuel prices again.
As an example I have just ordered an estate car that does 83mpg with zero road fund tax (89g/km CO2) for use as my company car, fleet buyers must be watching this market with interest, given the austerity period we find ourselves in I can see lots of company car drivers opting for these types of cars because of their low tax implications (13% for diesel, 10% for petrol). In real terms for a company car driver paying basic rate tax, the cost to them would be approx £350/year, now that is extremely cheap motoring:
Skoda Fabia Estate Greenline on sale in the UK - Automobiles Review
Skoda Fabia Estate 1.2 TDI CR 75 Greenline II 5dr Summary - What Car?
given that a 45 litre tank will carry you 800 miles, your leisure cyclist could have a 400 mile round trip for 25litres diesel @ £30 at todays prices. Already most modern small cars are capable of 50-70mpg. Suddenly motoring becomes a cheap option, in fact with this car I will be spending about the same on fuel that I was in the year 2000 with a car that did approx 35mpg when fuel prices were accordingly about half what they are today.
Given that the majority of the population are lazy, cycling is seen as a leisure activity, ebikes are stigmatised and anything ebike costs £hundreds more than non-ebikes, the economy argument won't hold up for much longer. For those with long commutes or business journeys spending on a bike for transport is not an option, only those that live in congested cities or have short journeys or those that cannot afford to buy a car or cannot drive for some reason will really benefit economically from ebikes, for the rest of us it will be mainly fitness and well-being benefits that will have to be used as the main arguments for buying an ebike.
Ebike advertising and marketing will need to be more focussed to be effective.
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Great car Tim, I had a Fabia 1.2 for over five years and just changed it for the sake of change. Taking all factors into account I think it could be the best car I've ever had, and I've had 25 of them (anti-car brigade throw fit!).
I'm quite sure you are right that everything favours people sticking to cars in future and I see little chance of e-bikes ever being more than niche vehicles in most markets.
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I'm quite sure you are right that everything favours people sticking to cars in future and I see little chance of e-bikes ever being more than niche vehicles in most markets.
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Actually Tim there is another way to view the e-bike market...As the rise in the cost of running a 'fun car' - (big, stylish, unfashionably sporty 
) has increased dramatically, they are becoming cheap as chips on the second hand market. At my age, and in my area, insurance costs are not a big worry, so If I buy one and use it just for fun, but do all my regular commuting on a bike (and/or ebike), I get the benefits of cheap commuting, keeping fit AND the ability to have a blast on occaisions in a car which I couldn't afford to buy a couple of years back, or to run as an everyday motor. That's what I call a result .
Phil
) has increased dramatically, they are becoming cheap as chips on the second hand market. At my age, and in my area, insurance costs are not a big worry, so If I buy one and use it just for fun, but do all my regular commuting on a bike (and/or ebike), I get the benefits of cheap commuting, keeping fit AND the ability to have a blast on occaisions in a car which I couldn't afford to buy a couple of years back, or to run as an everyday motor. That's what I call a result .Phil
Phil, ahem, I will have to join you in the club thereActually Tim there is another way to view the e-bike market...As the rise in the cost of running a 'fun car' - (big, stylish, unfashionably sporty) has increased dramatically, they are becoming cheap as chips on the second hand market. At my age, and in my area, insurance costs are not a big worry, so If I buy one and use it just for fun, but do all my regular commuting on a bike (and/or ebike), I get the benefits of cheap commuting, keeping fit AND the ability to have a blast on occaisions in a car which I couldn't afford to buy a couple of years back, or to run as an everyday motor. That's what I call a result
Phil
, however I will be putting minimum miles my 'fun car' and using the Skoda as much as poss whilst still enjoying commuting/leisure by ebike.Flecc, I knew I was onto a good thing and you are the proof
If I could get away without having a car I would, unfortunately it is a neccesity (and enjoyable in my part of the world).
One thing about this forum, it has changed my opinion of electric cars and hybrids, I think they are an expensive waste of the earths rare resources (Tesla notwithstanding as that is just an expensive 'fun car') given that manufacturers are now forced into making oil based cars as efficient as possible. Lithium, rare earth metals, poor recycling, poor efficiency and very high retail prices will conspire to keep these cars as niche as ebikes (IMO
).Tim,
I'm with you there, I've long held that view. My opinion of the Toyota Prius (previously aired) was not been terribly well received, hence I've not pursued the arguement. Haven't changed my mind though ...
Phil (Tin hat and body armour ready....
).The highly fuel efficient modern diesel car (I have one) comes after more than 100 years development of the internal combustion engine.
Yet we will write off the electric car after just a few years serious development. We will know if the electric car will be viable in maybe 20 years - until then we are all guessing.
People have always thought they know the future. Mostly they don't. Open minds are in order.
Yet we will write off the electric car after just a few years serious development. We will know if the electric car will be viable in maybe 20 years - until then we are all guessing.
People have always thought they know the future. Mostly they don't. Open minds are in order.
Sorry Lemmy, have to disagree and I'm not guessing. Electric cars were often preferable to petrol ones at the start of motoring and led them in refinement and technically. Electric vans persisted and were still common right up to WW2 and some leading companies like Harrods and John Lewis used them post WW2 right up to the 1980s The ic cars and vans overtook them and have never looked back since.
So as you see, electric cars have had the same development period as petrol ones and a far longer development than diesel ones. The fact is that they have proved inferior and will remain so for many years yet, possibly for ever.
Equally steam cars enjoyed many years of development including intensive efforts in the 1970s and 1990s in the USA, but have also failed to be viable.
No open mind needed, just knowing the history.
.
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OK, maybe I should rephrase that, to say that 'at the moment, I think they are an expensive waste of the earths resources' my mind is indeed open.
However, the internal combustion engine efficiency has only really changed in recent years as the political process has moved us all into wanting/needing a more greener/cleaner/cheaper fueled world.
I'll embellish on an opinion I read recently: As we have relatively stable oil supplies in terms of securing oil resource in trouble spots around the world. And now the emphasis is changing to electric vehicles and with it will come a much greater demand for lithium etc that is buried deep in the earth and may exist in politically unstable regions. Nobody seems to know the truth about Afghanistan and why we are really there, is it to secure the region for mining, possibly? Here is a link to recent NY times article to Lithium in Afghanistan http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html?_r=1&pagewanted=1&hp
The Chinese are aggressive in roaming the planet and securing coal and oil for their domestic market, are they doing the same with lithium and other future potential resources that may be needed [to ensure they have enough to manufacture goods and sell to the West] ?
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in the short term more for securing safe transit routes for petrochemicals bypassing the former SU, as well as an attempt at a "show of strength" to the wider Islamic world (albeit with questionable efficacy) - in the medium to long term there are potentially very large deposits of minerals including lithium there.
Yes. They aren't beating up Tibetans simply to "look hard". They are also heavily investing in Africa to obtain rare metals , whilst jealously guarding their own supplies.
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Yes, I just updated my post with a recent article from the NY times ref Lithium deposits.
I enjoy riding my e-bike. I worked out that the cost per mile is about equal to using the car taking everything into account. The e-bike allows me to exercise which is good and on commutes to work I can save a lot of time. Also no problem with parking if in the city. As time rolls by my e-bike has the potential to become even better than it was because new battery performance is likely to exceed to original specification.
If it were legal, would e-bike enthusiasts switch to alternative fuel/power sources? If the e-car was cost effective would the e-bike market survive?
The e-bike allows me to exercise which is good and on commutes to work I can save a lot of time. Also no problem with parking if in the city. As time rolls by my e-bike has the potential to become even better than it was because new battery performance is likely to exceed to original specification. If it were legal, would e-bike enthusiasts switch to alternative fuel/power sources? If the e-car was cost effective would the e-bike market survive?
Probably not if history is anything to go by. The petrol assist bicycle was killed right off by scooters like the Vespa and Lambretta as soon as they became affordable, then in turn the scooters almost disappeared for a while when most people began to afford cars. Scooters renamed as mopeds have returned to some extent for economy and traffic congestion reasons, but are hugely outnumbered by cars of course.If the e-car was cost effective would the e-bike market survive?
The car is king and will remain so for the foreseeable future, nothing else comes close to having it's numerous advantages.
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If you think an e-bike battery is expensive at £500 then just think what a car battery would cost.
It's all a question of energy density and the poor old battery can't hold a candle to fossil fuel (erm, not that it should, that wouldn't be a good idea at all )
I forget the figures now but they did say what the energy density of petrol was per kg compared to any other source of power. It was astronomical.
Petrol has approximately 12.9 kWh/kg in comparison to batteries. I suppose my 14Ah battery weighs about 2kg without the case etc., so that would be 7Wh/kg. Batteries for cars have got a very long way to go. Mind you, if weight could be reduced
On the other hand, several thousand pounds every couple of years or so doesn't bear thinking about, how many of us have let out a sharp ouch! when it came time to replace our batteries (a 'pleasure' I have yet to experience).
I would love a cheap, reliable electric car but I've nowhere to charge it and the running costs (batteries) would leave me - well - running! I think the e-bike does well to squeeze out the mileages that they do.
Thinking that my old Powabyke with 36V, 14Ah SLA managed a meagre 18-20 miles and my Lithium powered Wisper easily manages in excess of 30 miles is no small achievement. In fact, my SLA batts were dead in less than a year. My lithium battery at 18 months old is still exceeding 30 miles.
It seems that e-bikes are where the technology is moving along at a good pace as motors and batteries become more efficient.
The next major change would come with even higher energy density batteries. I wonder what that would be?
Best regards.
Vikki.
It's all a question of energy density and the poor old battery can't hold a candle to fossil fuel (erm, not that it should, that wouldn't be a good idea at all
)I forget the figures now but they did say what the energy density of petrol was per kg compared to any other source of power. It was astronomical.
Petrol has approximately 12.9 kWh/kg in comparison to batteries. I suppose my 14Ah battery weighs about 2kg without the case etc., so that would be 7Wh/kg. Batteries for cars have got a very long way to go. Mind you, if weight could be reduced
On the other hand, several thousand pounds every couple of years or so doesn't bear thinking about, how many of us have let out a sharp ouch! when it came time to replace our batteries (a 'pleasure' I have yet to experience).
I would love a cheap, reliable electric car but I've nowhere to charge it and the running costs (batteries) would leave me - well - running! I think the e-bike does well to squeeze out the mileages that they do.
Thinking that my old Powabyke with 36V, 14Ah SLA managed a meagre 18-20 miles and my Lithium powered Wisper easily manages in excess of 30 miles is no small achievement. In fact, my SLA batts were dead in less than a year. My lithium battery at 18 months old is still exceeding 30 miles.
It seems that e-bikes are where the technology is moving along at a good pace as motors and batteries become more efficient.
The next major change would come with even higher energy density batteries. I wonder what that would be?
Best regards.
Vikki.
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That's astonishing, my e-bike doesn't cost anywhere near what my car cost to run. Taking into account a battery every 2 years and electric I came out at £25 a month. My car was £150 a month. The train is £60 a month. I'm not counting the cost of the bike or the car. My bike was paid for in 8 months of not running a car.I enjoy riding my e-bike. I worked out that the cost per mile is about equal to using the car taking everything into account.
You could discount the battery cost and treat it as the cost of two yearly MoTs.
Best regards.
Vikki.
Batteries will never get remotely close to petrol in terms of energy density.
When it's considered that the lead acid battery basis has been with us for around 200 years and lead acid is still the dominant high discharge battery in worldwide use (vehicle batteries), the sheer lack of progress in battery development is brought into sharp focus.
Its also not true that lead acid is shorter lived, they only fail early in e-bikes through being grossly underspecified for weight reasons. Vehicle batteries in constant use with charge going in and out daily and massive discharges when starting, typically last for four or five years, often longer. No e-bike lithium battery gets remotely near to that.
So after a couple of hundred years of rechargeable battery development we haven't really made any progress worthwhile enough to justify changing the lead acid vehicle battery for anything else. A sobering thought which should be borne in mind when tempted to rashly forecast future battery development.
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Sorry, Flecc, didn't mean to give the impression that I was rashly forecasting battery development (I was indicating the opposite). Perhaps I should have said very, very, very (followed by a 'lazy-eight') long way to go (never getting there). I thought my figures showed that. Unless, of course, some super element is found in deep space
The next major change I mentioned was exactly that, I wonder what it will be and would it just be a doubling of e-bike range. I think they've struggled with lithium so God knows how long it will be to the next leap forward.
I watched a program where they were making lithium batteries for cars and it was very complicated, they must cost an absolute fortune
Have you read about those nano-motors that use butane to run a microscopic engine that turns a microscopic genny to power portable equipment like a phone? Wonder how far they'll get with that? Amazing what they play with these days.
Best regards.
Vikki.
The next major change I mentioned was exactly that, I wonder what it will be and would it just be a doubling of e-bike range. I think they've struggled with lithium so God knows how long it will be to the next leap forward.
I watched a program where they were making lithium batteries for cars and it was very complicated, they must cost an absolute fortune
Have you read about those nano-motors that use butane to run a microscopic engine that turns a microscopic genny to power portable equipment like a phone? Wonder how far they'll get with that? Amazing what they play with these days.
Best regards.
Vikki.
Not my world
The new Fabia Estate costs only £13 740. ONLY!!! People who say things like this don't live in the world that I live in!
Derrick - Llanberis
The new Fabia Estate costs only £13 740. ONLY!!! People who say things like this don't live in the world that I live in!
Derrick - Llanberis
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