Brexit, for once some facts.

Jesus H Christ

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 31, 2020
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I've just heard some stats being quoted on the radio in relation to vaccines and blood clots. In this country you have a 1 in 600,000 chance of getting a clot with the AZ vaccine. In Europe you have a 1 in 100,000 chance of getting a clot with the AZ vaccine. We are dealing with such small numbers that perhaps that difference is not significant, also if Europe had been using the AZ vaccine on younger people (until recently) that might explain the difference.

If you get Covid 19 then the chances of getting a clot are 1 in 6 (I must admit I did not know it was that high). If the 1 in 6 figure is anything like accurate then if the chances of getting a clot from the vaccine are 1 in 600,000 or 1 in 100,000 then most people would choose the vaccine I would have thought.

There have been a couple of blood clots in this country in people who have been vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine this compares with about 30 in the UK who have had the AZ, again these are such small numbers I am not sure if anything can really be concluded from them. Also I think some of these rare blood clots occur naturally anyway, so its very difficult to see just what is going on.

I had the AZ vaccine and I was glad to have had it, if I had been given a choice between the AZ vaccine and the Pfizer vaccine at the vaccination center I would have chosen the Pfizer. This would not have been because I was worried about blood clots or which one was the more effective. It would have been because anecdotally Pfizer seems to have less side effects than the AZ vaccine.
shhhh. You aren’t supposed to say anything negative about the PB vaccine, it doesn’t contain the word Oxford.
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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There is plenty to indicate that a woman taking a contraceptive pill (or HRT) and flying multiple times (whether on holiday or for work) has a massively higher likelihood of a blood clot. (Albeit, more often not this specific brain clot issue.)

"They found that women who had taken HRT tablets were 58 per cent more likely to develop a blood clot within 90 days than those who hadn’t taken HRT. To put this into context, each year about 16 women in every 10,000 who had not taken HRT developed blood clots. In those who had taken HRT tablets, there were an extra nine cases per 10,000."
https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/behind-the-headlines/hrt-and-blood-clot-risk

It must be devastating for someone to die from a clot apparently associated with the vaccine. But it is pretty devasting to die from Covid or a blood clot from other avoidable (or unavoidable, for that matter) causes.
What Zatlan /Susan and JHC both ignore is the huge difference between public health and private risk. Everything seems to indicate that public health is served by giving the vaccines, and if there is some collateral damage, it is manageable ..from a public health perspective.
To the private individual, taking these vaccines is a 100% risk and for the majority low reward. The global death rate from confirmed CV19 is 3%, but that risk is concentrated at the elderly ,with a young population the individual risk of death is at least 70 perhaps 100 times less. ..So the risk of death is now 0.03%. For that young person
Giving and taking the vaccination means injecting a noxious material into the body with a significant risk of discomfort, and maybe death. Remember all these deaths were caused by a odd reaction ..not yet understood, in normal healthy people. It is therefore absolutely imperative for the regulatory authorities to investigate exhaustively all the potential paths to minimise the risk.
For me and my son the risk reward ratio is overwhelmingly in favour of any vaccine. It is not so for my 30 year old daughter.
 

Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
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I've a hunch this wont wash on the thread, but here goes: I think having the freedom to interpret the law for oneself, have the freedom to make decisions and live with the consequences are vital for living a meaningful life. Smoke cannabis at uni, drive too fast (not be prohibited from it), act on ones impulses and make sense of what one did afterwards as part of living out what's inside. I'd hate not to have made (and had the opportunity to make) any of the mistakes I've made.
I, m afraid it's that very attitude that has led to many deaths of young blokes on motorbikes. Simple fact is our road network is for public and commercial transport. Historically its seen by many as a sports venue. It isn't. If folk want to take risks, drive fast, wheelie down road get on race track.
I agree taking risks is all about growing up, I, ve taken more than my fair share but we should all learn from an early age our public roads are simply not the place to do it. Never have been, never will be.
There are ample places and activities to get adrenaline fixes, doing so in cars and on motorbikes is just an easy way out for people too lazy to go to right places and the risk they take is nearly always carried by somebody else.
PS
I raced Caterhams/Westfields for 15 years. Never had a speeding ticket, accident, or even a bump in 45 years on road.
Track doesn't have kerbs(edges) kids jumping out, traffic lights, oil on road, prams crossing and stuff coming at you in opposite direction. It's safer.
Road cars should be fitted with a great big spike out of steering wheel. We all might give cars and other road users the respect they deserve then. Road cars are designed to give you a feeling of isolation from noise, weather, and danger. Drive a 7 without a windscreen to see what's actually going on.
 
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Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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What Zatlan /Susan and JHC both ignore is the huge difference between public health and private risk. Everything seems to indicate that public health is served by giving the vaccines, and if there is some collateral damage, it is manageable ..from a public health perspective.
To the private individual, taking these vaccines is a 100% risk and for the majority low reward. The global death rate from confirmed CV19 is 3%, but that risk is concentrated at the elderly ,with a young population the individual risk of death is at least 70 perhaps 100 times less. ..So the risk of death is now 0.03%. For that young person
Giving and taking the vaccination means injecting a noxious material into the body with a significant risk of discomfort, and maybe death. Remember all these deaths were caused by a odd reaction ..not yet understood, in normal healthy people. It is therefore absolutely imperative for the regulatory authorities to investigate exhaustively all the potential paths to minimise the risk.
For me and my son the risk reward ratio is overwhelmingly in favour of any vaccine. It is not so for my 30 year old daughter.
Risk to a 40 year old of dying from Covid is 0.1%...1 in a thousand. Now repeat your maths.
And that's before we examine effects of long covid.
What you call it is irrelevant.
Its simply how many will die if /when they contract covid against how many might die from vaccine. You complicate stuff so much you get lost.
I wonder how many of the 126,000 deaths we could have saved had we had AZ vaccine 18 months ago. And, you are always telling us how many deaths have happened in UK, yet when a working solution to prevent them is rolled out you throw up all these negatives.???
 

jonathan.agnew

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Dec 27, 2018
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You are a Public Nuisance.

Advanced driving course attendees are the worst drivers on the road. You should know from your course content not to drive at 90 mph. More proof that you require enhanced government control.
Now now, calm down. Find a comfy chair and take one of those benzos the nice doctor gave you. You abused the freedom the state gave you to vote for brexit and boris. And made yourself complicit in the avoidable traumatic deaths of tens of thousands of inocent fellow citizens. And we accept you (despite your gross lack of insight and self awareness). And you're even allowed to roam the streets. And there isnt any form of identification or test to protect us against your very special kind of stupidity. Now isnt that something to celebrate?
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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30,647
I, m afraid Flecc that is purely hypothetical. Had we adopted a more relaxed stance I suspect our death rate would have been even worse.
I strongly disagree, the outcomes are factual and result from our respective handling of the crisis. Sweden held its nerve and held to a consistent policy while we panicked and lurched from relaxed to strict control and back and forth again repeatedly. We are still doing that and it's stupid as most of us have stated. Every policy has advantages and disadvantages and repeatedly switching midstream stands a good chance of missing any advantages and gathering more disadvantages. Gambling once again.

Its strange that you and OG seem not to disagree over this issue when OG insists many policies have been late or helped to cause our death rate,whereas you see lockdown as being over restrictive.
Nothing strange at all, we do indeed disagree. OG sees it as an issue of saving life at any cost. I disagree and see it as an issue of a life/cost balance which we've got spectacularly wrong, spending a vast sum to still fail to control the virus while achieving a very high death rate.

Like Sweden I would have spent virtually none of that money and still had the deaths we have. What you fail to realise is that the money we spent almost certainly increased our death rate by paying people to stay off work and go home. Of course they didn't stay at home staring at four walls, they went out socialising far more than they would have done at work. Remember the crowds on the beaches and in the parks enjoying that fine 2020 Spring and Summer? Remember the hordes gathering at beauty spots with crowded car parks? We all criticised them didn't we. Most would have been safer at work getting on with their jobs and keeping our economy going.

We got it very wrong and you simply can't admit that an EU member got it very right after both of us made the identical bad start.
.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,258
30,647
That’s a ridiculous idea. How would I know it belongs to you? You might have forged it or borrowed it off someone. The vaccine passport needs to be digital, use biometric identity data and be linked to a central government server. A piece of cardboard isn’t good enough.
The world you aim for would eventually reduce us all the lives of the Hymenoptera.

No life at all.
.
 
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Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
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I strongly disagree, the outcomes are factual and result from our respective handling of the crisis. Sweden held its nerve and held to a consistent policy while we panicked and lurched from relaxed to strict control and back and forth again repeatedly. We are still doing that and it's stupid as most of us have stated. Every policy has advantages and disadvantages and repeatedly switching midstream stands a good chance of missing any advantages and gathering more disadvantages. Gambling once again.



Nothing strange at all, we do indeed disagree. OG sees it as an issue of saving life at any cost. I disagree and see it as an issue of a life/cost balance which we've got spectacularly wrong, spending a vast sum to still fail to control the virus while achieving a very high death rate.

Like Sweden I would have spent virtually none of that money and still had the deaths we have. What you fail to realise is that the money we spent almost certainly increased our death rate by paying people to stay off work and go home. Of course they didn't stay at home staring at four walls, they went out socialising far more than they would have done at work. Remember the crowds on the beaches and in the parks enjoying that fine 2020 Spring and Summer? Remember the hordes gathering at beauty spots with crowded car parks? We all criticised them didn't we. Most would have been safer at work getting on with their jobs and keeping our economy going.

We got it very wrong and you simply can't admit that an EU member got it very right after both of us made the identical bad start.
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So did Sweden. Its neighbours did far better
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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Risk to a 40 year old of dying from Covid is 0.1%...1 in a thousand. Now repeat your maths.
And that's before we examine effects of long covid.
What you call it is irrelevant.
Its simply how many will die if /when they contract covid against how many might die from vaccine. You complicate stuff so much you get lost.
I wonder how many of the 126,000 deaths we could have saved had we had AZ vaccine 18 months ago. And, you are always telling us how many deaths have happened in UK, yet when a working solution to prevent them is rolled out you throw up all these negatives.???
And a 20 year old and a 25 year old or in my case a 30 year old ?. Yes the risk is age related.. 40 is middle aged!. . I choose not to query why the UKs rates of reported blood clots is significantly and statistically lower than EU rates. It could be different data sets or it could be jingoistic The point is that you want others to put themselves at risk for a reward you gain. Again I say I will be happy to take whatever vaccine is available because the reward risk ratio is very high for me and my brothers and families. It is not as balanced for a 30 year old female.

Had we has ANY of the vaccines 13 months ago, there would have been a global death toll measured in thousands not millions.. and well you know that. Had Island countries actually quarantined, effectively in March a year ago, their death tolls would have been in hundreds ..with ir without vaccination.
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,258
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Wholly inadequate security.

Almost anyone could produce them by the thousand as a reasonable facsimile.

And nothing to link the card to the person holding it.
That always happens anyway, no matter how sophisticated the documents.

The only thing that works for good security is online confirmation, like that with vehicle tax, MOT and insurance, plus finger print reading and/or facial recognition with personal items like a vaccine card.
.
 

Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
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Sweden and UK are different countries.. People insist on comparing UK with utterly different countries with regards almost every metric. And Sweden hasn't handled pandemic as well as its neighbours. Look on worldometer for upto date data.
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,258
30,647

So did Sweden. Its neighbours did far better
For goodness sake engage your brain, that is not relevant to my argument. They did as well as us without spending enough to wreck their future.

If we'd done the same we wouldn't have been £400 billions of debt worse off, our economy would have been in far better shape, our kids education wouldn't have been seriously damaged and their exams would have been taken. All with no more deaths than we already suffered, and possibly less.
.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,258
30,647
The issue I have with that is you are endangering people around you by traveling at 90 mph as opposed to 70 mph.
Utter rubbish, the 70 limit is nothing to do with safety.

It was trialled for two years in the late 1960s and when it made no difference to any accident rates it was withdrawn.

Then when the Arab oil crisis happened in the early 1970s the 70 limit was reintroduced as an economy measure, together with the national 60 mph limit for the same reason. There was no mention of safety in that legislation.

Those two limits were never withdrawn so they remain an economy measure that by default already also applies to the newer electric cars.

As always, one needs to know the subject well enough to comment.
.
 

Jesus H Christ

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 31, 2020
1,363
2,206
What Zatlan /Susan and JHC both ignore is the huge difference between public health and private risk. Everything seems to indicate that public health is served by giving the vaccines, and if there is some collateral damage, it is manageable ..from a public health perspective.
To the private individual, taking these vaccines is a 100% risk and for the majority low reward. The global death rate from confirmed CV19 is 3%, but that risk is concentrated at the elderly ,with a young population the individual risk of death is at least 70 perhaps 100 times less. ..So the risk of death is now 0.03%. For that young person
Giving and taking the vaccination means injecting a noxious material into the body with a significant risk of discomfort, and maybe death. Remember all these deaths were caused by a odd reaction ..not yet understood, in normal healthy people. It is therefore absolutely imperative for the regulatory authorities to investigate exhaustively all the potential paths to minimise the risk.
For me and my son the risk reward ratio is overwhelmingly in favour of any vaccine. It is not so for my 30 year old daughter.
Point 1: You can’t name three people and refer to them as, “both.”

Point 2: Long Covid

Point 3: The threat from the virus > the threat from the vaccine.
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
14,609
West West Wales
Point 1: You can’t name three people and refer to them as, “both.”

Point 2: Long Covid

Point 3: The threat from the virus > the threat from the vaccine.
Given that the Kent variant was both more infectious and, we now read, more likely to cause hospitalisation and death, we need to factor that into the equation.

The death rate could worsen very significantly due to further/different variations. If any vaccine provides at least some protection, thus keeping hospitalisation and death rates down, then its worth would appear to rise very considerably.

Whereas the danger of the AZ vaccine is unlikely to change. And we just might find some factor which, if addressed, could reduce dangers further.
 
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Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
8,086
4,290
Utter rubbish, the 70 limit is nothing to do with safety.

It was trialled for two years in the late 1960s and when it made no difference to any accident rates it was withdrawn.

Then when the Arab oil crisis happened in the early 1970s the 70 limit was reintroduced as an economy measure, together with the national 60 mph limit for the same reason. There was no mention of safety in that legislation.

Those two limits were never withdrawn so they remain an economy measure that by default already also applies to the newer electric cars.

As always, one needs to know the subject well enough to comment.
.
Not quite true. There was a bit of a fracas in parliament over an AC Cobra doing 150 mph on a newly opened stretch of M1... An E type (a factory version) had also been tested to a similar speed...
I don't actually think raising speed limit to 85 or so(its that at moment really) would affect overall figures much but accidents are more damaging with only slight increases in speed.
Its perhaps not the speed limit but our attitude. 100 mph in some places is fine... 25 in others too fast.. Only point I was making is that roads are not race tracks for anybody in answer to JA saying it was normal to take risks driving. It shouldn't be.
And to be fair drivers in UK are without doubt best in EU... French roads are lethal and their death figures suggest same. They still (some anyway) still work to their old right of way system on roundabouts. ie) going onto roundabout you have priority. There used to be an old chap everyday drive from Boulou to Argeles, drove onto roundabouts oblivious to anyone on there. How he didn't kill anyone I don't know... End of day he do same going back.
 

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