Brexit, for once some facts.

Nev

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Years ago, I tried day trading for about 4 months on CMC, mostly on currencies and market indexes. I did OK for a while until I got fleeced.
I've tried day trading several times, and swing trading (this is holding a trade from say a day up to about a week), either broke even or lost a bit every time I tried. Trading short term is extremely difficult, very few people (maybe 1%) succeed over the long term.

I eventually realized that investing over the long term using global indexes and professional managers such as Terry Smith of Fundsmith Equity was the way forward for me. If you can put money away and not draw on it for at least 10 years then the chances are you are going to do a lot better than having it in a bank account where due to the low interest rates you are probably going to lose out to inflation.
 

oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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Indeed, but this extract is worrying though:

"Last week’s health ministry figures may provide further concern for the UK policy. It showed that 42% of Israel’s 834 critically ill patients had already received one shot of the Pfizer vaccine. That figure dropped to 2% after the second jab."

Doesn't look like much immunity after one jab.
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Oh Dear that news has really upset someone's applecart, hasn't it?
And I also find it very alarming, not the sort of news I or any of us want to hear
Let us sincerely hope it is just a blip.
 

oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
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Indeed, but this extract is worrying though:

"Last week’s health ministry figures may provide further concern for the UK policy. It showed that 42% of Israel’s 834 critically ill patients had already received one shot of the Pfizer vaccine. That figure dropped to 2% after the second jab."

Doesn't look like much immunity after one jab.
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I'd want to know a bit more. How long between first vaccine and getting Covid-19? (Even negative time if they were already infected.)

If 834 is a big reduction in absolute number, that would be good.

And how long after second did any get infected and critically ill? How many got infected but NOT critically ill?

And is there any genetic bias - such as between Ashkenazim and Sephardim? (There is possibly greater genetic basis for the Jewish Israeli population than is the case in many other countries.)
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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42% of their 834 critically ill patients had had one Pfizer jab, that dropped to 2% of them after the second shot
I'd want to know a bit more. How long between first vaccine and getting Covid-19? (Even negative time if they were already infected.)

If 834 is a big reduction in absolute number, that would be good.

And how long after second did any get infected and critically ill? How many got infected but NOT critically ill?

And is there any genetic bias - such as between Ashkenazim and Sephardim? (There is possibly greater genetic basis for the Jewish Israeli population than is the case in many other countries.)
It isn't really out of step with makers' figures for first half dose protection though:

Pfizer = 52%

Astra-Zeneca = up to 62%

It all adds up to the advisability of getting the second dose at the right time to get the 90%+ protection, not waiting 3 to 3.5 months for it.

An awful lot of infection and superspreading can go on in three months plus, especially when the vaccine makers don't know what protection, if any, that we'll have after two very widely spaced doses. And even more especially when some people will think one dose has given them enough protection to socialise more.
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oyster

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Both of you have been proved wrong by info from Israel, time you both apologised

42% of their 834 critically ill patients had had one Pfizer jab, that dropped to 2% of them after the second shot
If Israel is giving second dose after 3/4 weeks, I wonder what has happened to those not given the second dose for some reason? How much of the effect is due to longer time since first dose, and how much directly due to the second dose?

Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections
Only 0.04% of people caught virus a week after second dose and 0.002% needed hospital treatment
 
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oldgroaner

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I'd want to know a bit more. How long between first vaccine and getting Covid-19? (Even negative time if they were already infected.)

If 834 is a big reduction in absolute number, that would be good.

And how long after second did any get infected and critically ill? How many got infected but NOT critically ill?

And is there any genetic bias - such as between Ashkenazim and Sephardim? (There is possibly greater genetic basis for the Jewish Israeli population than is the case in many other countries.)
So far Israel has reported 4738 deaths
Total cases 95,290 562k recovered
It isn't really out of step with makers' figures for first half dose protection though:

Pfizer = 52%

Astra-Zeneca = up to 62%

It all adds up to the advisability of getting the second dose at the right time to get the 90%+ protection, not waiting 3 to 3.5 months for it.

An awful lot of infection and superspreading can go on in three months plus, especially when the vaccine makers don't know what protection, if any, that we'll have after two very widely spaced doses. And even more especially when some people will think one dose has given them enough protection to socialise more.
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Absolutely right and that should guide the Government to do the job correctly
 
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oldgroaner

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If Israel is giving second dose after 3/4 weeks, I wonder what has happened to those not given the second dose for some reason? How much of the effect is due to longer time since first dose, and how much directly due to the second dose?

Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections
Only 0.04% of people caught virus a week after second dose and 0.002% needed hospital treatment
I already posted that up as a success remember?
 
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flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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If Israel is giving second dose after 3/4 weeks, I wonder what has happened to those not given the second dose for some reason? How much of the effect is due to longer time since first dose, and how much directly due to the second dose?
But was there a longer time to second dose? Three to four weeks between first and second jab is plenty enough time for 834 people to catch Covid-19 and get seriously ill.
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oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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A reason to be cheerful
"Out of 3.9 million patients at 385 GP practices across England last week, only 35 had the flu. "

And the figures have to be right, they come from the unquestionable source, the British Government

Evidently the laws of probability were somehow left behind at the border of the new Brexit reality
 
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oyster

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Does Johnson care any more?

Johnson poised to appoint Paul Dacre chair of Ofcom
PM’s choice of controversial former Mail editor is part of his election promise to radically overhaul the BBC
 

vfr400

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Jun 12, 2011
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Years ago, I tried day trading for about 4 months on CMC, mostly on currencies and market indexes. I did OK for a while until I got fleeced.
I've made loads of money trading equities. It's one of the few bets, where you always win. In the long term, the markets always have risen since they began. Simple rules will help you. Never bet on anything the press or stockbrokers recommend. Buy shares that pay a good dividend. Even if the share price goes down, you still make a profit. Never sell if the price goes down, since that's when you actually lose money.

Mind, you, when I first started trading in 2001, I didn't know what to do so I bought 1000 Ashstead shares at about £1 each on a recommendation from a newspaper article. Within weeks, they started to go down, and they carried on down to about 4p 2 years later. I forgot about them for 10 years because I considered them the dross in my account and it cost more to sell them than what they were worth. In 2014, when I checked my account, I found out that I had a lot of money in there. The Ashstead shares had risen from the grave to £10 each, so I sold half of them and cashed in a £4000 profit. The other half are now trading at £37 each. I thought of cashing in another half to take another £10,000 profit, but I don't need the money at the moment and they're still rising. The best thing is that wrapped in a nice ISA, so no tax. When i started that ISA, I bought a RBS managed ISA. In 6 years, it went down by £500, while the one I managed myself tripled in value, and that was before the Ashstead shares boomed.. What does that tell you?
 
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Jesus H Christ

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Dec 31, 2020
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But was there a longer time to second dose? Three to four weeks between first and second jab is plenty enough time for 834 people to catch Covid-19 and get seriously ill.
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Once injected, it takes time for immunity to build. It’s not an instant process, you leave the vaccination centre with no protection.

Those that fell seriously ill will have either had Coronavirus prior to the vaccination or caught it very soon after being vaccinated. Once immunity has built, your cool.

Kick back & relax, Van Tan has your back. Don’t buy into the conspiracy theory on here. It’s worse than Facebook.
 

sjpt

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Jun 8, 2018
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I don't think you posted: Only 0.04% of people caught virus a week after second dose and 0.002% needed hospital treatment
As far as I am aware there is NO data about the effectiveness of any of the vaccines more than three weeks after a single dose. The trials all went for the three week gap, and the UK 12 week policy hasn't been going on for long enough to provide useful data yet.

Though the Israel data collection has given lots of extra useful information, it hasn't given information on that particular issue as (like the trials) their policy is the three week second jab.

Is that correct, or have I missed something?
 

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