Brexit, for once some facts.

Wicky

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I, m afraid I don't see it like that. Mhra are not under Boris's jurisdiction. Neither are JVCI and first person to publicise vaccine regime, allegedly after consulting vaccine specialist, was Tony Blair. Hardly a Boris supporter.
With Tories having an 80 seat majority I can't see point in politicising BJs decisions. Besides Starmer has endorsed them.
There's been previous chopping and changing on common sense / pragmatic expert advice to general public based on ultimate political delivery/ filtering for instance on use of masks early on when they were short in supply to healthcare settings. The same applies to prioritisation of vaccine application / methodology. What will happen to Boris if his gamble fails/wins? Considering he's aleady had CV and his gamble is on other people's lives.

Boris Johnson admits face mask U-turn inspired by 'sensible' Scottish decision


 
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Woosh

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Over a thousand people died today, had they had vaccine 6 weeks ago how many would still be with us?
you are looking at first jab only for which we have no record of protective rate, my guess 50%. Work it out: 2kk of us vaccinated * 50% protective rate / 65kk = 1.5% fewer casualties, statistically speaking, it's a small percentage.
We'll see a bigger effect when the pool of candidates for contagion gets smaller. R is proportional to (1-S) with S= percentage of vaccinated people.
Lockdown can be removed as soon as 25+% of us are vaccinated.
Life will gradually return to some semblance to normality from April/May.
 
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Zlatan

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you are looking at first jab only for which we have no record of protective rate, my guess 50%. Work it out: 2kk of us vaccinated * 50% protective rate / 65kk = 1.5% fewer casualties, statistically speaking, it's a small percentage.
On the entire population it is. But its not entire population dying of it. And 88% of hospitalisation are in top 4 groups. In 7 weeks, 3 weeks after those groups are vaccinated we should reduce hospital admissions by around 80%. With targeted use of vaccine and fast roll we can save hundreds of lives. ( Average age of those dying is 82,unfortunately average age of ICU patients is 62,so deaths and hospitalisations should drop fast. ICU usage will be last to drop because over 60s won't be vaccinated until post 2nd for those in higher groups)
Its a race Woosh. No matter how you look at it.
PS
Both vaccines claim no hospitalisations /deaths 3 weeks after first dose. The efficy rates are for infections. People can still be infected post vaccine but (allegedly) will not need hospital treatment.???
ie) For keeping folk out of hospital vaccine is 100% efficient.??? Even on a single dose. (as claimed by both Stephen Powys and JVT)
Its the crux of argument around single dose, to get through those first 4 groups ASAP. Then get second done..
 
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Wicky

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Death not the only bad outcome

"We talk about deaths as the only bad outcome," Dr Alwan said.
But she suggested "previously healthy people" could be left with disabilities that affected their ability to work and care for their families.

Prof Danny Altmann, an immunologist at Imperial College London, said it was a "chapter of the medical textbooks that hasn't yet been written and it needs to be".
"It's a real kind of Russian roulette," he said.
Even if you are "low risk and might not die... you do not know if you will be better in a few weeks or one of the ones on crutches or in a wheelchair".
 

Woosh

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Its a race Woosh. No matter how you look at it.
I look at the number of fatalities as the measure of the problem.
Less than 500 a day, lockdown can be removed.
As you are interested in France, last report shows 19,752 new cases and 452 new deaths in France.
 

Wicky

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Friend of mine for an otherwise healthy 50 year old this past week -so far he's okay but with what long term consequences.

"Just a little update because we know how worried people are and you have no idea how much your messages mean. After a phone consu!t last night at 6.15 with 111, the doctor referred Steve to paramedics. It was a busy night and they came at 4.50 am. His O2 sats were 92. They have given him some oxygen and he is going to require assessment at Colchester A&E. It doesn't mean he will be admitted but he needs it done. So after giving him the O2 they took him in about 15 minutes ago. Prayers and all positive thoughts welcome. Steve has his phone too."
 

oyster

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USA is getting some very heavy language - from people who matter:

(CNN)America's most senior military leaders condemned the violent invasion of the US Capitol last week and reminded service members of their obligation to support and defend the Constitution and reject extremism in a statement that underscored the unprecedented challenges facing the country in the aftermath of the January 6 insurrection attempt by President Donald Trump's supporters.
"We witnessed actions inside the Capitol building that were inconsistent with the rule of law. The rights of freedom of speech and assembly do not give anyone the right to resort to violence, sedition and insurrection," said the statement, released Wednesday and signed by America's most senior general, Mark Milley, and the entire Joint Chiefs of Staff, which is comprised of the heads of each military branch.
 

vfr400

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Some well known fascist acts and policies attacking the public interests that gullible clowns have constructed into a conspiracy.
Redwood is another small right wing group nutter.
No international mega crime syndicate such as you suggest would be so dim as to be so patently obvious and broadcast their intentions for the public to read.
If they actually exist, use incompetent agents like him and are that easy to find they are a pretty dumb outfit with appalling ideas of security
But you have your little buzz words "Great Reset" and millions will no doubt think themselves clever when they immerse themselves in the myth and glamour of it all.
What we have is nothing more complicated than something easier to describe
International Fascism
You need look no further than read the history of the Third Reich.
How can you guys say it's a hoax or conspiracy, when it's published on the WEF website and in Time magazine? Are you in denial or something? It's even on the BBC. I like the way they're trying to blame Covid. Schwab was making speeches about it in 2016, and it was on the WEF website long before they even released the virus:
 
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Wicky

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How can you guys say it's a hoax or conspiracy, when it's published on the WEF website and in Time magazine? Are you in denial or something? It's even on the BBC:
Well it must be the worst secret ever conspiracy of unnamed world leaders who want to make us all disenfranchised crusties that only you know (please tell us who they are) that you are privvy from parlaying on parler with those in on it , so that it's so well known about I can wiki / bbc it.
 

RossG

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Look vfr it's like this (an example) way back their was much talk of an exit from Europe, eventually a vote and leavers won the day. Everyone discused about what should then happen and some guy sitting in an office decided to call the whole damn silly nonsense Brexit as in Britain Exiting Europe, he was on tv talking about it but you didn't see it because you don't watch tv and good on you for that...very wise.

The Great Reset is exactly the same thing, some daft sod thought the term up now it's caught on. If you think about it when life does get back to normal many people will have to reset themselves, I wont because I'm already Mr Normal so never need re-setting.
 

oldgroaner

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Agreed there must be checks and consent but when the mechanisms are slowing roll out to extent in France something is wrong. Suspect its double edged, the more checks put in place by medical system the less faith it seems they have in the vaccine itself.
Personally think I, m all for slipping it in my fish and chips.. As long as I get it..
Going into lockdown late or coming out early are debatable points but its without question a slow roll out will cost lives.
Who has it right? Israel or France. Personally I, d choose Israel's approach but perhaps UK's is a decent compromise somewhere between the two.
Roll out in France is causing a lot of questions. Got many friends around Perpignan grumbling and wondering why they are about last to get going.???
Don't forget Israel has vaccinated a quarter of their population. Uk around 4%, France around 1/10 of 1%...???
At least we are being told these things
 
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oldgroaner

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I, m afraid I don't see it like that. Mhra are not under Boris's jurisdiction. Neither are JVCI and first person to publicise vaccine regime, allegedly after consulting vaccine specialist, was Tony Blair. Hardly a Boris supporter.
With Tories having an 80 seat majority I can't see point in politicising BJs decisions. Besides Starmer has endorsed them.
It wasn't BJ who decided to delay 2nd dose. Believe it was JVCI. c
But I see logic as to why it could be put at BJ's feet but I don't think he, or his government, are in such a weak position to have to go out on such a limb. I think you over play his hand. You are suggesting JVCI and Mhra are staking their futures and hard earned trust on a decision made by BJ essentially in contradiction to their own beliefs. Its approaching a conspiracy theory.
JVCI and Mhra would have to make decision. But who knows. World went bonkers years ago.
Was JVT the same JVT in the video posted earlier saying face masks don't help?
Or have I got the wrong man?
Sorry if I have, but I don't actually see verification of a persons qualifications if they ignore the actual manufacturers explicit instructions on vaccine dosage dates and change their minds about facemasks
For example the earlier statements that facemasks don't work makes you wonder why they are worn by surgeons in operating theatres.
It is far too easy to take qualifications as indication of wisdom and being able to resist being pressured into following a political agenda.
You end up with Mengele
 
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oyster

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you are looking at first jab only for which we have no record of protective rate, my guess 50%. Work it out: 2kk of us vaccinated * 50% protective rate / 65kk = 1.5% fewer casualties, statistically speaking, it's a small percentage.
We'll see a bigger effect when the pool of candidates for contagion gets smaller. R is proportional to (1-S) with S= percentage of vaccinated people.
Lockdown can be removed as soon as 25+% of us are vaccinated.
Life will gradually return to some semblance to normality from April/May.
Trouble is that all these formulas are like going back to 19th century physics.

Smooth, continuous variables/functions do not explain the photo-electric effect. Virus infection appears to be far more quantum. Which makes sense to me.

Yes, I know that there appears to be a swing towards classical physics when you look at big things with vast numbers. But that doesn't deny the underlying quantum nature of the phenomena. And you keep finding things that don't make sense if you persist with classical physics.

(The apparent craziness of the quantum world doesn't make it any easier to understand!)
 

Woosh

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S and R are just ratios, you get them by dividing two large numbers.
Quantum is both particle and wave and time dependent probability.
 
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Zlatan

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S and R are just ratios, you get them by dividing two large numbers.
Quantum is both particle and wave and time dependent probability.
As part of my degree half a century ago we had to do units on Thermodynamics, Quantum Physics and Theory of Relativity.
Only thing I learned from it all was if this is all true absolutely anything from ghosts to aliens could be.
Explaining time dilation to disinterested students years later only added to the mystery.
(I should add trying to explain, it's inexplicable)
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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For example the earlier statements that facemasks don't work makes you wonder why they are worn by surgeons in operating theatres.
This practice had long been questioned since there's a lack of evidence of it having any value, it can even be harmful:

Information Link

Current NICE guidelines no longer require masks to be worn during surgery.
.
 
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