Brexit, for once some facts.

[oyster]

I think Herd Immunity is an interesting strategy which of course would not work as it requires at least 70% of the population to catch covid then become immune. You then have to assume 70% actually want to catch it and if like me they don't then it would take a very long time to achieve, apparently it takes 1-2 years to achieve herd immunity anyway. People are coming out of their shells now lockdown is partially lifted but they would soon scurry back in again if the death rate shot up unexpectedly God forbid, so what price herd immunity then.

Just read flecc's post above and I would concede for London it probably is the best outcome, but of course London is but one city. How about Manchester, Birmingham and other large cities what would be best for them ? ok if you don't live there it doesn't matter directly to you but it would if people travelled from those places to your town/city bringing it with them. Some towns had signs lit up on major roads saying to would be visitors and holiday makers "Don't Come Here" to stop covid spreading, almost unbelievable really.

I am currently concerned that areas like here, which have been low to very low, will fairly suddenly jump in cases if/when lockdown is eased. Given the low level of health facilities, it is all too likely to locally overwhelm services.

Someone I communicate with daily lives in a small but popular seaside town up the coast. The police have been rounding up and fining people daily - many from the West Midlands area but not exclusively. A day or two ago, one was identified and fined after he went up to a policeman to ask directions to the public toilets. (Not suprisingly, they are currently shutdown.)

 

[oldgroaner]

Looking for advice? ask Alexa

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1265346131858542593

 

[flecc]

Flecc, I don't think the herd immunity notion has any credibility. I suspect that Londoners are not flocking to underground stations, are socially distancing in so far as they can, probably holding their breath while passing close to other people . Obviously I am not there to check, but the few video images I see goes not show hoards.

That's not so, making your story fit the inconvenient facts?

In fact some in here have reposted photos of th crowded underground, some buses and crowded parks, which I'm sure you've seen in this thread. Indeed they were frequently criticising us about our obvious lack of social distancing at times. It's an undeniable fact that we live in crowded circumstances and I've described in detail why I'm unable to always achieve distancing even in my area of my outer borough.

The numbers tell the same story, London has quickly changed from being by far the worst hit part of the UK into by far the least now with us forecast to be perhaps free of the virus in June. That's not magic, we just took a far bigger hit early.

If you look at my post you'll see I made no mention of herd immunity since I don't believe in it either. We simply took a hard hit early which reduced the opportunities for the virus later, so our infection and death graphs have a steeper downslope.

As I've posted more than once, it's an undeniable fact that London hasn't done what the government wanted by spreading the infection rate over time, in our circumstances we've just taken it as it came and it's paid off.

Sorry it doesn't fit your assumptions, but you can't bend the numbers to suit. Here's the ONS figures:

• When adjusting for size and age structure of the population, there were 36.2 deaths involving COVID-19 per 100,000 people in England and Wales.
• London had the highest age-standardised mortality rate with 85.7 deaths per 100,000 persons involving COVID-19; this was statistically significantly higher than any other region and almost double the next highest rate.
• The local authorities with the highest age-standardised mortality rates for deaths involving COVID-19 were all London Boroughs; Newham had the highest age-standardised rate with 144.3 deaths per 100,000 population followed by Brent with a rate of 141.5 deaths per 100,000 population and Hackney with a rate of 127.4 deaths per 100,000 population.

Deaths involving COVID-19 by local area and socioeconomic deprivation - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths and age-standardised mortality rates involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) between 1 March and 17 April 2020 in England and Wales. Figures are provided by age, sex, geographies down to local authority level and deprivation indices.

www.ons.gov.uk

.

 

[flecc]

I find that difficult to believe when the official national new daily cases still running at 2000-3000 a day.

Another one like Danidl trying to deny the evidence because it doesn't fit your predictions?
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[Woosh]

No doubt that London is hardest hit by CV, but how many people have caught it?
The formulas are simple:

S: percentage of susceptible population + I : percentage of immune population = 1
Re = R0*S

R0 was 2.5, determined times and times again in Wuhan and other very large cities.
For Re = 0.4, if you want herd immunity, you need S = Re/R0 = 0.4/2.5= 0.16

That's 84% of the population to be immunised either with a vaccine or a brush with CV.

I suspect that the low Re is partly down to lower pollution in our towns and the general good weather this month.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

That's not so, making your story fit the inconvenient facts?

In fact some in here have reposted photos of th crowded underground, some buses and crowded parks, which I'm sure you've seen in this thread. Indeed they were frequently criticising us about our obvious lack of social distancing at times. It's an undeniable fact that we live in crowded circumstances and I've described in detail why I'm unable to always achieve distancing even in my area of my outer borough.

The numbers tell the same story, my own borough of Croydon being London's hardest hit and London has quickly changed from being by far the worst hit part of the UK into by far the least now with us forecast to be perhaps free of the virus in June. That's not magic, we just took a far bigger hit early.

If you look at my post you'll see I made no mention of herd immunity since I don't believe in it either. We simply took a hard hit early which reduced the opportunities for the virus later, so our infection and death graphs have a steeper downslope.

As I've posted more than once, it's an undeniable fact that London hasn't done what the government wanted by spreading the infection rate over time, in our circumstances we've just taken it as it came and it's paid off.

Sorry it doesn't fit your assumptions, but you can't bend the numbers to suit.
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When it returns to London, I hope we are using the hot spot lockdown model. If the track & trace is working as promised, that should be possible.

 

[oyster]

I really don't get this local lockdown idea.

Surely everyone will just leave the hotspot for their family homes? Thus enjoying not being locked down and able to go out and about like everyone else?

After all, it is unlikely that, say, Islington and Durham will both be hotpots at the same time.

 

[Woosh]

Another one like Danidl trying to deny the evidence because it doesn't fit your predictions?
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nothing to do with denying any evidence.
In the absence of specific evidence regarding the number of new confirmed cases in London, we use the national figure * percentage of population living in London = 2500 * 9M/65M = 346 new cases a day.
A very long way from 24.

 

[Nev]

I don't like cummings and think he should go, but am morbidly confident that he and boris will be replaced by far right stooges like jrm, or worse.

I would be astounded if the Tories were to select JRM. During the last election they hid him away from the public after his gaff over the Grenfell tower tragedy. If I had to put money on it I would think the next Tory leader will be Rishi Sunak, he is the only minister that has looked half competent during the entire virus crisis.

I agree with you though that Boris will not fight the next election, I don't think he will want to. He has achieved his ambition of getting to the top of the greasy pole, he will now cash in on that. He will publish his memoirs, he will get on the speaking circuit for ex leaders. Probably earn over a £100,000 for each speaking engagement he attends, he will have numerous news paper columns etc. He will easily be earning several million pounds a year, which is many times what he would be able to earn if he remained Tory leader.

Boris does not have an ounce of public service in him, its all about Boris even his closest allies wont argue with that. Now if what's good for Boris also happens to be good for the public then he is happy with that, but Boris puts himself first second and third, the public are only an afterthought to him.

 

[Nev]

Did anyone hear the following on the radio this morning. An expert was talking about copper, he said that surfaces made out of copper or have a copper coating do not allow the virus to survive on them. The ions in the copper kill the virus in seconds, so things like metal door handles of shops could either be fitted with a copper handle. Or the existing handle be sprayed with a copper coating and that would avoid people getting catching the virus off the handle. I don't know if this is true or not, but the expert sounded like he knew what he was talking about.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

I really don't get this local lockdown idea.

Surely everyone will just leave the hotspot for their family homes? Thus enjoying not being locked down and able to go out and about like everyone else?

After all, it is unlikely that, say, Islington and Durham will both be hotpots at the same time.

I agree, it would be difficult, and that is why it is important that government messages are taken seriously and people follow the guidelines. Sacking Cummings would help in this regard, it would reinforce that this is a no nonsense situation.

When the second wave hits London, it would seem unfair to place the same lockdown on say, Leicester if there were zero cases there. Of course this would require strict personal commitment from the population, and whilst ever Cummings is around, I don’t think the government will get it.

 

[oyster]

Did anyone hear the following on the radio this morning. An expert was talking about copper, he said that surfaces made out of copper or have a copper coating do not allow the virus to survive on them. The ions in the copper kill the virus in seconds, so things like metal door handles of shops could either be fitted with a copper handle. Or the existing handle be sprayed with a copper coating and that would avoid people getting catching the virus off the handle. I don't know if this is true or not, but the expert sounded like he knew what he was talking about.

Have seen this discussed over many years in the context of other nasties. Yes, 'tis well known. Think that brass and bronze and silver are also effective.

One of the problems is that everyone went for stainless steel (or chrome, etc.), or coated the metal in a lacquer of some sort, in order to avoid having to clean and polish. Tarnished metals can look horrible. Bug laden metals which are not tarnished look fine!

I guess we need green kryptonite to prevent the survival of Cummings?

 

[Danidl]

Have seen this discussed over many years in the context of other nasties. Yes, 'tis well known. Think that brass and bronze and silver are also effective.

One of the problems is that everyone went for stainless steel (or chrome, etc.), or coated the metal in a lacquer of some sort, in order to avoid having to clean and polish. Tarnished metals can look horrible. Bug laden metals which are not tarnished look fine!

I guess we need green kryptonite to prevent the survival of Cummings?

There was that standard cowboys trick of leaving a silver dollar in a water bag to keep the water sweet.

 

[flecc]

nothing to do with denying any evidence.

Yes it is, see below.

In the absence of specific evidence regarding the number of new confirmed cases in London, we use the national figure * percentage of population living in London = 2500 * 9M/65M = 346 new cases a day.
A very long way from 24.

So your made up calculated theory number is better than an actual one from a pair of reputable bodies?

Did you even bother to look at the ONS numbers? London took an earlier hit so much greater that it was up to double the rest of the country. That's why we are getting over it so much faster now and leading the country, many more of our vulnerable were infected early.

So at the moment we are worse off overall, but no longer suffering the protracted infections that the rest are suffering. Where I think we'll gain is in any second phase with less infection since we've already dealt with the most vulnerable and which we might even miss out on. The signs are promising.
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[Danidl]

Another one like Danidl trying to deny the evidence because it doesn't fit your predictions?
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That comment is unworthy of you flecc.

 

[flecc]

I suspect that the low Re is partly down to lower pollution in our towns and the general good weather this month.

Even truer in regional towns and cities outside of London, yet they lag way behind London in Re.
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[Danidl]

That comment is unworthy of you flecc.

Again from a distance , what public events have taken place in London in the month of May?. What theatres , Football finals, music festivals flower shows, proms ,boat races, .airline flights ( note I would see the contrails for UK flights from here). If you don't provide the opportunities for people to gather , their common sense prevails

 

[flecc]

That comment is unworthy of you flecc.

It was wholly justified. Frankly I'm surprised at how far you'll go to avoid the facts when they don't fit, concocting a belief in Londoners behaviours that even contradicts what you've been posting previously.

Why is it so difficult to understand that the very high early numbers of infections and deaths meant less later with a faster decline? It was after all what the government were trying to avoid and what we failed to avoid due to our circumstances.

If you and Woosh are not prepared to accept the numbers from the ONS and research by respected bodies like Public Health England and Cambridge University, preferring your own theoretical calculations and beliefs , there's really no point in discussion.
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[flecc]

Again from a distance , what public events have taken place in London in the month of May?. What theatres , Football finals, music festivals flower shows, proms ,boat races, .airline flights ( note I would see the contrails for UK flights from here). If you don't provide the opportunities for people to gather , their common sense prevails

You really are making yourself look very silly now. That is true everywhere, so cannot account for the huge discrepancies between London and National outcomes.
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[Danidl]

You really are making yourself look very silly now. That is true everywhere, so cannot account for the huge discrepancies between London and National outcomes.
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Except of course that Londoners have now serious first hand knowledge of the damage and are more wary. There is nothing like a hanging to concentrate the mind. One point ,you make ,I can accept is that the most vulnerable have already been plucked .
One can hope that improved therapy will reduce the mortality rates in the next wave.