I think it will be a miracle if infection rates in London don’t start rising fast, I can’t see what will stop that happening.
I hope I am proven wrong.
Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
- Start date
I hope I am proven wrong.
Why do you say that? There's been crowds on the tube throughout, such are the numbers of essential workers, indeed I believe you've commented on that yourself.
That, and all the other crowded circumstances we have, is why we've had our peak much earlier in London.
Why is no-one in here getting that very obvious fact?
The added travellers now aren't likely to make much difference since they haven't exactly been isolating during their long unexpected holiday anyway.
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I believe the virus works like this, I am no expert on these things, so I am more than happy to be proven wrong.
On day one when the chink ate a batshit sandwich or whatever it was, that person was the only infected person in the world. The virus needs a supply of fresh people with no immunity to replicate and spread, on days one, two, three and so on, that was possible and the virus spread around the world very quickly.
Then everyone started social distancing and basically throttling the supply of fresh people with no immunity. This throttling affect meant that the virus could not spread as rapidly and it could on day one, two .... with the result that the rate of infection started to fall. There are still plenty of people around with no immunity for the virus to feed on, it's just that they have been hiding from it. Therefore, to my mind, the peak that you talk about being over, was a synthetic peak, a peak created by initially doing nothing (rising cases) and then doing something (lockdown), which brought the cases down.
With so many people knocking about with no immunity, people wandering around carrying the disease and mixing basins like busses, trains and tube transport, offices, parks etc, I can not see how the virus will not start to feed on the fresh meat again. It has to? Doesn't it? As far as I know, London hasn't reached a natural herd immunity peak, so I can se no other outcome to the one I have outlined.
As I say, I sincerely hope that I am wrong.
Regardless or not whether you believe lockdown works it's interesting to compare the fatalities in coastal towns with other parts of the country. Southampton, Portsmouth, Brighton all with populations of just over 200k but averaging only about 80-90 deaths each. That's not good news but it smokes many other places that have chosen not to enforce lockdown as toughly as they could/should have done. One place I read about has even shut off it's coastal road to Cyclists ! I am still technically on lockdown and will remain so probably for some weeks yet and will immerge when I don't have to join a 100 mtr long queue to go into Poundland.
Still not getting it, we haven't had any such increase in lockdown, quite the opposite as Londoners rebelled against it and still are increasingly doing so.
Danidl first said we'll be hit in three weeks time, now says one week. You think we'll quickly get another hit.
Just be patient and we'll see.
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Yes, time will tell. Good luck, I’ll be very happy to be proved wrong.
Very high.
Living just a few miles from the sea, I am hoping that being coastal helps! And also hoping that I'll be able to go and get wet feet again soon.
Saw somewhere average work commuting distance was 9 miles or so
Esp after years of town planning based on folk getting around by car - with big stores / supermarkets ending up on town outskirts accordingly.
Though they might be slowly waking up to alternatives
Electric bikes 'could help people return to work'
A rise in electric-bikes would extend the range of cyclists using them to commute, a study finds.
www.bbc.co.uk
No BSP, I believe that in the fundamentals you are correct. The growth is exponential throttled only by the the number of people within spitting distance. However the actual focal point of patient zero could have been anywhere in the world. China is only the major suspect, because there are more Chinese. If could have been Wuhan, it coukd have been Tibet, it could even have been San Francisco or Paris,
Not into London though. The last time I had a commute under 14 miles was when I still lived in inner London over 50 years ago.
A very high proportion of commuters into London live in the Home Counties, Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Surrey and Kent. Still more commute from Sussex and Oxfordshire and some even commute from Hampshire, Dorset, Suffolk and Norfolk.
And then we have the intermittent commuters from even more distant places like Devon, Gloucestershire and further afield.
I don't know how some of them stand it, I'd rather be poorer with less time travelling.
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I have tried to make sense of these tables, but the complier is not great in statistics. Raw numbers are ok, but the population of each if these regions needs to be included. 20 deaths in a population of 11 million is small, whereas 20 in a region of 1 million is larger.I think this sums up how London has faired so far during this Pandemic....thank Christ I live on the coast.
Coronavirus: Which regions have been worst hit?
Reality Check examines the weekly deaths figures for nations and regions across the UK.www.bbc.co.uk
"Londoners will commute over 141,000 miles
The average London commuter makes a daily round trip of 13.42 miles. They will travel 141,427 miles by the time they retire, or 161 times the distance from Land's End to John O' Groats." Total jobs website.
The ONS web site has probably been mentioned before on here but it's worth a look again. Halfway down the page you can zoom right into the very town or area where you live and see how many people have fallen victim to covid.
For some I suppose that could be reassuring, others not so much.
For some I suppose that could be reassuring, others not so much.
Deaths involving COVID-19 by local area and socioeconomic deprivation - Office for National Statistics
Provisional counts of the number of deaths and age-standardised mortality rates involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) between 1 March and 17 April 2020 in England and Wales. Figures are provided by age, sex, geographies down to local authority level and deprivation indices.
www.ons.gov.uk
Quite a lot more than the 9 miles each way mentioned by Nev, and since it's continuously increasing with housing costs and shortages making people move out, I doubt your quoted figure is still correct, being always in arrears of the continuous changes.
Perhaps you should be worrying about N.I. on your doorstep now that groups of up to six can meet outdoors there.
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My understanding is that it takes around 10 days for an infection to be acquired, and then develop to the stage of requiring treatment. In some people it can be as low as 5 and in others upward of 14 days. For a period of perhaps 3 days the person is infectious without even being aware.
Now if you have had a quasi lockdown, the rates of infection are supressed. For instance my daughter and 3 or 4 others were sharing a 3 carriage train ,so basically had a huge area to each person .. that suppresses the transmission. Now that has started to edge up to 6, 7 , and she now wears a face covering. If it grows to 50 passengers , we might need to t make different arrangements . However the probability of infection is now low.
My point is that if the Sky story is accurate ,and more and more people started taking the tube starting 11 May, you can expect to see a modest increase in positive cases, within 2 weeks , and an acceleration thereafter. Since one week has passed , I expect the numbers to become apparent after a further week.
Sorry flecc.. but 11.6 Round trip is smaller than 18 . My concern at present is not really NI, since it is outside my allowed area of travel. 5Km, current limit. It does not really concern me for my daughter either, as except for the train, she is in an isolated lab setting, and travels by bike the 3 miles to and from the railway station.
Cancel my previous nominationfor the title of "Tweet of the Day" this one literally blew it out of the water
Sheer Genius this chap should replace Cummings on the Sage panel
Sheer Genius this chap should replace Cummings on the Sage panel
7 per 100,000 here.
57 per 100,000 in Newport, Gwent.
Anglesey so low they don't publish the numbers.
Powys has gone up a lot - now 17 per 100,000. Mind, as they have no real hospitals, I did wonder if there cases were appearing in other areas - such as Shrewsbury.