Brexit, for once some facts.

Danidl

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Yet we in London, Heathrow's city, continue to outperform the rest of the country in respect of Covid-19, probably because of such as this, as I've already posted.

To protect the NHS the politicians wanted us to keep the infection rate low by isolating, but that was always impossible in our crowded city of London. Therefore it was a stupid and pointless policy, proving if ever it needed proof that one size never fits all.

So as I've been posting for weeks we broke all their silly rules and did our own thing here in London, ignoring politicians and police to suit our very different circumstances. That's been very effective, since we quickly had the highest infection rate by far and the highest consequences of course.

In other words, we got the first phase of the pandemic over quickly and may not even have a second phase. Those of us who were most likely to get infected got infected, the vulnerable who were likely to die anyway, did die.

So for a while now we are leading the country with very low rates and our NHS never got overwhelmed despite our cavalier attitudes. Indeed our hospitals have had to appeal for patients with other conditions to return for treatment to give them something to do, even A & Es being empty. The NHS struggled to find ANY patients for our 4000 bed Nightingale emergency hospital which has been a horribly expensive and ill advised white elephant.

I honestly wonder if it had been better to have never had any lockdown, carried on going to work and schools as usual, taken what would have been only a slightly bigger hit and saved the economy rather than the NHS.

That would have avoided the very long period of economic suffering we are now facing, which itself will result in a higher sickness and death rate of its own.
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Flecc.. I suspect you will not have to wonder for much more time. As London reduces its lockdown strategy, and people get back on the underground, the surge is 3 weeks away. The assumption you are making that those who would have died have died anyway , is erroneous. What fraction of the London population have diabetes ,or are obese? Each of these are known complications . The majority of ICU interventions are with these categories.
And I for one am not anti London, I have a cousin living near Hendon and a brother in Ascot
 

RossG

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London is doing much better than it did because basically those most likely to have caught covid have and now it's on it's way out. I well remember the Asian flu back in the sixties, I caught it but my parents didn't although we all lived together in the same house, it came it went. I believe this will be the same and by the time a safe vaccine appears few will have it anyway so you can decide if you want a jab or not.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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we don't know this for a couple of weeks.
the ONS will publish the percentage of infected population.

Once this information is available, we can calculate more or less exactly when this crisis is over (or not as the case may be).
That doesn't matter what that percentage is, it's too late again. People have gone back to work, lots more functions and facilities are operational again and lockdown is falling apart.

Personally I only care about my London region and immediate surrounding area. We're doing well as I predicted long ago, and I'm guessing that will continue with our approach.
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Danidl

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I've agreed with the rest of your post but disagree with this.

You and Danidl would have been more right if we'd acted immediately as South Korea did.

We didn't, we left it far too late so we now have to take the hit as we've been doing in London, until a vaccine arrives.

We've already done immeasurable harm to our very vulnerable economy, so further lockdown, and repetitive lockdown cycles would cripple us so badly that with Brexit thrown in, we could end up in a third world economy not worth living in.

The shortened lifespans and deaths from increased illnesses then could dwarf anything Covid-29 might do at present.

Anyway, London is conducting the experiment of living with Covid-19 now with considerable success, so you won't have to wait long for the outcome to know what's best in our current circumstance.
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"The shortened lifespans and deaths from increased illnesses then could dwarf anything Covid-29 might do at present.".. That is the very serious question. Nobody has done the calculus on that.
 

flecc

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As London reduces its lockdown strategy, and people get back on the underground, the surge is 3 weeks away.
You still aren't getting it, but you should, given your criticisms of how we've been behaving.

We haven't really been in a proper lockdown, which is why we've got our first phase over so quickly. I'm betting your "surge" prediction will be very minor indeed and possibly barely evident.
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flecc

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"The shortened lifespans and deaths from increased illnesses then could dwarf anything Covid-29 might do at present.".. That is the very serious question. Nobody has done the calculus on that.
It would be stupid to try.
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RossG

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A few Pubs & Restaurant's here in town have already started serving customers outside of their buildings. Some are getting round any legal restraints by giving beer away but you make a donation.
Some are moaning about it while others give it the thumbs-up, it's a very polarised society we live in is it not ?
 

oldgroaner

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Sorry folks, but I'm not buying the notion that the Nightingale Hospital wasn't needed as it was, but wasn't used.
The truth is it was obviously all smoke and mirrors and never actually even partially operational for a very simple reason
Not enough trained staff or not enough ventilators and other equipment.

Ask yourself a very simple question
Those most at risk are we are told the elderly and weak . Why then rather than being shipped into the Nightingale Hospital piecemeal where they shipped off to die in care homes?

Given that the purpose of the Nightingale hospital was for those most in need
Which blithering idiot decided on the policy husbanding the capacity for a future hypothetical need by allowing the ones who really needed it to die?
No Medical authority or government with a shred of humanity about it would do that.
So the question is, are with dealing with genocide as a policy, or just lethal incompetence?

The answer is, that while there were plenty of beds in this Nightingale hospital it was incapable of taking the numbers of those who fell seriously ill a fact that should be obvious, just saying they were saving the beds collapses on this one point, as they never even tried to put them into use did they?
If the beds were for those most in need, why did they deliberately send those very people off to care homes to die just in case things got hectic later?

Either we were witnessing a deliberate Cull

Or the Nightingale Hospital was bogus when it comes down to actually having more than a handful of fully staffed and operational ICE beds
In other words another Government big lie to reassure the public and they hoped to get away with it.
All a big sham to pretend that something was being done, Four mortuaries notwithstanding.
 

Woosh

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in the month of April, COVID kills 25 times more people compared to prostate cancer.
CV kills more than all the other underlying causes put together, except old age.
and CV has affected so far only a small proportion of the population. If the disease is widespread and we still don't have a vaccine, it can easily be 10 times worse.
 
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oldgroaner

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Well you can’t argue with the numbers, London is currently doing well. I would not have believed this possible and my instinct would have been that London would be overwhelmed with cases and many unnecessary deaths.

Sadly the above is leading me towards Boris Johnson having been thinking along the right lines with herd immunity.
Sorry 20,000 deaths through lack of taking action early another unrinate on that bonfire
 

Nev

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I get the message from Oyster, Barry and yourself, you don't like it that London is doing so well, such is London's unpopularity elsewhere in the country, so you look for reasons why it could just have happened anyway.
Strange that you should come to that conclusion. I am extremely please that London is doing so well, not least because I have a son that lives and works in London. It would be good if there were lessons there that could be applied to the rest of the country.
 
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oldgroaner

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Not particularly, the difference in average age to the rest of the country is 3.8 years. (35.5 years to 40.3 years)

It would need at least a decade of difference to even shift much onto the Covid-19 vulnerable regions of old age and poor health.

And anyway, our living conditions and air quality are among the worst anywhere in the UK, easily offsetting any small age gain.

I get the message from Oyster, Barry and yourself, you don't like it that London is doing so well, such is London's unpopularity elsewhere in the country, so you look for reasons why it could just have happened anyway.

The truth is blindingly obvious to us here. The official lockdown policies that most of you have been following were often impossible to follow here, so we did our own thing and it's paid off.

We got the first phase over quickly while your lockdown has spread yours over time "to save the NHS" as the politicians said and wanted. Maybe that was right for you, but it wasn't for us in our very different situation.
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flecc, London simply got lucky, let's hope that continues, after the missing and unaccounted for start to smell.
 
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Woosh

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That doesn't matter what that percentage is, it's too late again. People have gone back to work, lots more functions and facilities are operational again and lockdown is falling apart.
we can still calculate for those strategies (with or without lockdown).
 

Danidl

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You still aren't getting it, but you should, given your criticisms of how we've been behaving.

We haven't really been in a proper lockdown, which is why we've got our first phase over so quickly. I'm betting your "surge" prediction will be very minor indeed and possibly barely evident.
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There are images from Sky dated 12 May, ie a week ago, showing increased numbers on the underground Jubilee line . About 40% of the people are masked/ face covered. Mayor Khan says that capacity is at 5% to 15% . There is no way that the social distances can be maintained on the tube. So regrettably I am anticipating a rise in the infection rate ..from end of this week.
 

sjpt

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The naivest comment from BBC in a while (in 'Coronavirus: Isle of Wight contact-tracing app trial - a mixed verdict so far' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52709568 by Rory Cellan-Jones.)

though we may have a clearer idea following a Commons statement by the Health Secretary Matt Hancock this afternoon.

It would certainly be a first if anything became clearer after a statement by Mike Hancock.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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Sorry folks, but I'm not buying the notion that the Nightingale Hospital wasn't needed as it was, but wasn't used.
The truth is it was obviously all smoke and mirrors and never actually even partially operational for a very simple reason
Not enough trained staff or not enough ventilators and other equipment.
That's simply not true. They did have enough staff and equipment for quite a few cases but just lacked the demand since the usual hospitals coped so well that they had spare capacity and had to appeal for patients with other conditions to return for treatment. It was only after the press kicked off about the ExCel Nightingale not being use that they migrated 15 Covid patients in.

The whole issue is one of overreaction and hysteria, building far too much emergency capacity, rushing other patients out of hospital into care homes, infecting and even killing them to create bed spaces that weren't needed, cancelling operations to leave surgeons and theatre staff free to work as doctors and nurses in Covid areas without the necessary skills.

I repeat, overreaction and hysteria.
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