Brexit, for once some facts.

[Barry Shittpeas]

My point is that were significantly less densely populated than the Netherlands. But unlike t dutch, we are governed and managed by the kind of free marketers who promote unsuitable house building in flood plains

We may have a greater land area, but much of it isn’t habitable, has poor access or isn’t near anywhere suitable to support employment. You can't build houses on Bleaklow Moor for example. Remove those factors and we have lots of people crammed into a much smaller area than initially seems apparent. You make a nonsense argument which quickly falls apart when subjected to brief scrutiny.

 

[oyster]

Prime minister Boris Johnson and estranged wife Marina Wheeler have reached an agreement relating to money following their separation two years ago.

If it has taken him two years to negotiate that relatively trivial agreement, on what basis does he claim anything at the scale of national determination decision making can be achieved in about nine months?

 

[Woosh]

Lots of high ground, but not necesssarily suitable for housing. Often windswept, high rainfall, poor access.

the local authorities can always sub-contract out diversion of flood water to farmers whose farms are upstream to the towns they want to protect.

 

[oyster]

the local authorities can always sub-contract out diversion of flood water to farmers whose farms are upstream to the towns they want to protect.

But the farmers are supposed to farm, to produce food, especially the food we won't so readily be able to get in future. Not to change their fields into lakes and dams.

Mind, I suppose they could grow watercress, fish, maybe even rice...

 

[oldgroaner]

Even in those less densely packed areas, we have a strange habit of building on low level ground like river flood plains and then getting upset when it floods.

It's not as if we are short of higher ground in this country.
.

We are round here! in Hull we are actually below sea level now, according to my Iphone my desk is Zero feet above seal level (Though that could be because it's low tide at the moment!)
If you walk to the river Hull from here you will often find after scaling the bank it is two metres higher than the local land when the tide is in.
And between us and the coast 14 miles away there isn't a decent hill worthy of the name, as the land is literally clay and rubbish left when the last ice age glaciers melted.

 

[oldgroaner]

the local authorities can always sub-contract out diversion of flood water to farmers whose farms are upstream to the towns they want to protect.

Round here they are already ponds!

 

[oldgroaner]

The Greeks and Romans had their superforecasters:

Haruspex (plural haruspices; also called aruspex) was a person trained to practice a form of divination called haruspicy (haruspicina), the inspection of the entrails (exta—hence also extispicy (extispicium)) of sacrificed animals, especially the livers of sacrificed sheep and poultry. The reading of omens specifically from the liver is also known by the Greek term hepatoscopy (also hepatomancy).

How about Sabiskyspicy?

We had one of those super forecasters
I seem to recall he was called Michael Fish.

" he made his final forecast on 6 October 2004 on the BBC Ten O'Clock News bulletin. In a specially extended report[2] fellow forecaster Ian McCaskill paid tribute to Fish in stating that "Michael is the last of the true weatherman you will ever see. Michael can actually interpret the skies – he can do the weather forecast the hard way: the old way that people don't do any more, because nowadays most of the decisions are made by the computer."

A few hours before the Great Storm of 1987 broke, on 15 October 1987, he said during a forecast: "Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way. Well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't!". The storm was the worst to hit South East England for three centuries, causing record damage and killing 19 people.

That was a memorable night, I was attending a think tank at a Fancy place called "Chequers" in Sevenoaks that night, in the morning I think it was down to Three oaks, any way it took me 15 hours to travel back to Hull that day, every road seemed blocked, and half the time I was using farm tracks.

As the song says
"Oh what a night it was,
It really was such a night.!"

Now that's what I call "Superforecasting!"
I couldn't top that effort m'self, and Lord knows I have tried!

 

[flecc]

Lots of high ground, but not necesssarily suitable for housing. Often windswept, high rainfall, poor access.

You'd better let Switzerland know that they are doing it all wrong.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

the local authorities can always sub-contract out diversion of flood water to farmers whose farms are upstream to the towns they want to protect.

Already happening with flood alleviation tidal gated ponds in this area.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

You'd better let Switzerland know that they are doing it all wrong.
.

The largest populated areas in the alps are centred around the valley floors. It's very different terrain to the UK. You aren't comparing the same things.

 

[oldgroaner]

Thought for the day

The New European

@TheNewEuropean
·
3h

Dominic Cummings says people should listen to ‘superforecasters’ rather than ‘ignorant pundits’



Dominic Cummings says people should listen to ‘superforecasters’ rather than ‘ignorant pundits’
Dominic Cummings has told people to listen to superforecasters, like former adviser Andrew Sabisky, rather than political pundits.

oldgroaner
@oldgroaner

Replying to
@TheNewEuropean
Or indeed "ignorant political bandits" like himself

 

[oldgroaner]

Prime minister Boris Johnson and estranged wife Marina Wheeler have reached an agreement relating to money following their separation two years ago.

If it has taken him two years to negotiate that relatively trivial agreement, on what basis does he claim anything at the scale of national detmerination decision making can be achieved in about nine months?

About as much as the same time when applied to the Pregnancy of an Eleephant
Something quite large but not operational

 

[flecc]

We may have a greater land area, but much of it isn’t habitable, has poor access or isn’t near anywhere suitable to support employment. Remove those factors and we have lots of people crammed into a much smaller area than initially seems apparent.

No it's just a lazy approach, taking the easy option. Most of the land is suitable as proven by many very hilly or mountainous countries, the access comes with the building and often the employment too.

My whole 3000 home estate and the next one continuing from it are built on a series of North Downs ridges. The route through the two estates to the area shopping centre is a cyclists nightmare, a continuous series of steep ups and downs and hardly any level. All it took to design it and make it popular was an Italian architect. Here's a Sanoodi image of the 1.7 miles through them:

 

[oldgroaner]

Just been informed that the latest statistics on the virus are
80% are mild cases
14% are serious cases
5% are fatal

Presumably the remaining 1% have evolved into something else?
There's an opening for Government advisers
We certainly need someone with a Lucky streak

 

[Woosh]

5% are fatal

ouch.
are you sure? it looks high to me.

 

[oldgroaner]

One down, two to go

 

[oldgroaner]

ouch.
are you sure? it looks high to me.

Perhaps It includes the ones who starved to death in self isolation because the food ran out and nobody remembered who and where they were?
Am I sre? no, these are supposed to be official figures, and we don't know if Putin hasn't tweaked them for a giggle at our expense.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

No it's just a lazy approach, taking the easy option. Most of the land is suitable as proven by many very hilly or mountainous countries, the access comes with the building and often the employment too.

My whole 3000 home estate and the next one continuing from it are built on a series of North Downs ridges. The route through the two estates to the area shopping centre is a cyclists nightmare, a continuous series of steep ups and downs and hardly any level. All it took to design it and make it popular was an Italian architect. Here's a Sanoodi image of the 1.7 miles through them:

View attachment 34101

I can show you a terrain graph, it means nothing. Here is one from a bike ride I completed last week.



Try building on Bleaklow Moor and see how far you get.

It's hilly around here, that's not a problem, but there are huge swathes of the UK which are unsuitable for building and the more we build on the bits that are suitable, the more we will experience flooding witnessed at the weekend.

 

[flecc]

The largest populated areas in the alps are centred around the valley floors. It's very different terrain to the UK. You aren't comparing the same things.

Precisely, it's much easier to build on the UK's hills than their mountains, but they manage ok. Switzerland has very little flat land, I still remember when they bought a number of Centurion tanks from us. There was nowhere in Switzerland that they could practice with them, so all their training was done in France, the tanks transported there for that purpose each time.

Imagine that, asking an invader if they wouldn't mind having the fight somewhere else!
.

 

[gw8izr]

All that means is where their priority lies.
The difference in spending between one government to the next is usually small, 5% or less.
Tony Blair's government spent and John Major's is less than 5%. Similarly, between Jeremy Corbyn's manifesto in 2015 when pitched against TM's manifesto: 6%.

you can see it is reflected in the quality of public services.

Tory: priority to cut taxes, especially:

a) highest contribution rate, catering for the richest 5%
b) corporation tax > net proceed goes abroad, catering for the richest 1 per thousand.

All other parties: priority to spend more on public services.

what is more important is the result for ordinary people.
Just to remind you, the real incomes of Britons grew 18% during the Blair's years 1997–2006 while it is stagnant in the entire conservative era, the rich gets richer, the poor poorer since the conservatives took over in 2010.

Hang on I never mentioned spending levels. Perhaps I didn’t explain myself properly.

My point was and remains, if you go out to bat with an important policy in your manifesto, and you do this election after election yet choose to do nothing when you have had the opportunity to do so ( especially when facing a very weak opposition where you have the numbers to get your will ) then it is clear what your aims really are. But I’m not picking on the Labour Party, that is simply an example, no party has the moral high ground on manifesto promises that are not lived up to!