Brexit, for once some facts.

[OxygenJames]

Why on Earth you put your faith is this squalid plot to subvert democracy.

Says the man wanting to subvert democracy.

 

[OxygenJames]

So what happens now? He can’t exit without a deal, he can’t call an election and he says he will not ask the EU for an extension. Where does he go?

The opposition will crack. He'll get his election.

 

[Woosh]

But the biggest difference, of course, is that 31 years after Margaret Thatcher launched the modern Eurosceptic movement with her Bruges speech, her side has finally triumphed. Following the expulsion of the 21 most committed Remainers, Eurosceptics are in almost full control of the Tory party for the first time since the Fifties. If Boris Johnson’s massive, historic bet pays off – by no means certain – he will win the general election by scooping up a fresh demographic attracted by his domestic and European policies.

if Bojo wins big enough, he'll purge the brexiteers as well. Boris works only for Boris.
If you watched his interview on Peston last night, when Peston asked him about removing the whip from rebel tory MPs, how about those who will oppose his deal if and when he brings it to parliament, he blusters a bit and said 'if the sauce is for the goose then..'

 

[oldgroaner]

More o Johnson's lies about negotiations exposed
Johnson exposed yet again as senior EU officials, including chief Michel Barnier, briefed ambassadors of the bloc’s 27 governments reaffirming talks are at an impasse and that UK envoy David Frost has failed again to deliver concrete proposals.

Boris never intended to make an effort to get a deal the GE should be delayed till after he achieves one.

 

[oldgroaner]

The opposition will crack. He'll get his election.

If he does he will lose and there will be a coalition

 

[Woosh]

The opposition will crack. He'll get his election.

the opposition only wants to move the poll date by a few days, at most 3 weeks.
From 15 October to 19 October or after A50 extension.
nobody trusts what Bojo says on TV or even in the HoC.

 

[oldgroaner]

Meanwile in other news Farages personal company pretending to be a political party has been exposed
the Electoral Commission, visited the party on 21 May to review the systems it had in place to receive funds.

A month later, the commission concluded that “the fundraising structure adopted by the party leaves it open to a high and on-going risk of receiving and accepting impermissible donations”.

It made a number of recommendations to the Brexit Party – including that it should check and identify all of the online payments it had received to ensure that the party had not accepted any donations that it was not entitled to, including foreign money.

However, the latest figures published by the Electoral Commission on political party donations and loans have raised concerns as to whether the Brexit Party heeded this advice.

As a result of the watchdog’s visit on 21 May, the Brexit Party altered its funding system to register the identities of donors. In line with this, the filings from the Electoral Commission reveal that a number of prohibited donations occurred rapidly the day after the visit. This is because the changes the visit instigated resulted in illegal payments to the Brexit Party becoming visible and a pattern rapidly emerging.

However, while the filings confirm that vast amounts of impermissible foreign donations were moved through the Brexit Party’s PayPal structure, they also reveal that Nigel Farage’s party has not reviewed any donations it received before the visit by the Electoral Commission on 21 May. Not a single impermissible donation was reported from this period to the watchdog.

Tip of the Iceberg?
When Nigel Farage launched his party on 12 April this year he claimed that, during the preceding 10 days, it had amassed funding at record rates – £750,000, all in small donations of less than £500. He had “never seen anything like it in his 25 years in politics,” he declared.

Under UK electoral law, donations to political parties under £500 can be accepted anonymously as they are exempt from the requirement to store addresses and check that the donor is a UK resident.

As the PayPal function for receiving donors’ addresses on the Brexit Party’s donation system was disabled, it amassed a number of anonymous payments. If several separate payments of £500 or under were made to the party, which actually came from the same source, these would be impermissible.
..................................................
And Farage pretends he represents the leave voters, he's a bigger liar than Boris

 

[oldgroaner]

the opposition only wants to move the poll date by a few days, at most 3 weeks.
From 15 October to 19 October or after A50 extension.
nobody trusts what Bojo says on TV or even in the HoC.

Strange how OJ approved of Proroguing parliament, but not moving the GE date, don't you think?
Now why should that be? the wouldn't be a sinister reason would there?
I can't imagine.... like hell I can't!

 

[50Hertz]

The opposition will crack. He'll get his election.

I don’t think he will. People can see straight through Johnson. They know he’s a lying devious slug, hiding behind the jolly buffoon veneer. The ONLY reason he wants an election is to close parliament until after 31/10. If ever he were to get his election, he would immediately go back on his word and slip the date into the future. Everyone knows this and his word has no value anymore.

Corbyn will get his election, he has no need to take Johnson’s poison bait, just sit it out. Johnson is painting himself into a corner nicely. I’m going to enjoy his further humiliation.

I will vote for Johnson in the next GE, even he will be better than a Corbyn led government. What a state when it comes to this.

 

[oldgroaner]

I don’t think he will. People can see straight through Johnson. They know he’s a lying devious slug, hiding behind the jolly buffoon veneer. The ONLY reason he wants an election is to close parliament until after 31/10. If ever he were to get his election, he would immediately go back on his word and slip the date into the future. Everyone knows this and his word has no value anymore.

Corbyn will get his election, he has no need to take Johnson’s poison bait, just sit it out. Johnson is painting himself into a corner nicely. I’m going to enjoy his further humiliation.

I will vote for Johnson in the next GE, even he will be better than a Corbyn led government. What a state when it comes to this.

Come on then, explain how Johnson is better than a Corbyn led Government?
You seem to be losing the plot again.
First of all Corbyn is unlikely to win a majority so what is your problem? why the rush to side with something you detest and don't want?
Simply vote for someone else, or don't vote at all.
Strange logic to become complicit in something you despise because you haven't the guts to abstain?
That was the way I treated New Labour.

 

[Wicky]

The opposition will crack. He'll get his election.

Threat or promise, you decide, biting BJ on the bum...

"If you put the support for Boris Johnson's Conservatives and the Brexit Party together, the truth is, in a general election, with a clear policy, we'd be unstoppable" says Brexit Party Leader Nigel Farage

Small sample of potential BXP candidates....

Meet the man who wants to win Colchester for the Brexit Party

 

[50Hertz]

Come on then, explain how Johnson is better than a Corbyn led Government?
You seem to be losing the plot again.
First of all Corbyn is unlikely to win a majority so what is your problem? why the rush to side with something you detest and don't want?
Simply vote for someone else, or don't vote at all.
Strange logic to become complicit in something you despise because you haven't the guts to abstain?
That was the way I treated New Labour.

I’ve never not voted in a GE. I think the right to vote is too precious not to use. I believe that Corbyn would confiscate a portion of what I have worked and saved for. I can’t risk that.

So that just leaves Johnson with his hands partially tied. Not ideal, but the best of two pales if shite.

 

[oldgroaner]

From a Dutch Newspaper

 

[oldgroaner]

I’ve never not voted in a GE. I think the right to vote is too precious not to use. I believe that Corbyn would confiscate a portion of what I have worked and saved for. I can’t risk that.

So that just leaves Johnson with his hands partially tied. Not ideal, but the best of two pales if shite.

The right to not support something and make a hypocrite of yourself is more sacred to me.
I commend that to you
Do not make yourself an accomplice in a criminal enterprise out of spite or mistaken pride.

 

[flecc]

he could bribe the SNP with a promise to agree to indyref2 if they support a bill to modify the fixed term parliaments.

I don't think even he would want to be known as the man who broke off part of the United Kingdom and ended the existence of Great Britain.
.

 

[Woosh]

I will vote for Johnson in the next GE, even he will be better than a Corbyn led government. What a state when it comes to this.

Corbyn has the best strategy to resolve brexit. It's unfortunate that he comes with so much baggage.
He'd bring back May's deal with closer to the EU political declaration, put that to a 3 way referendum: WTO, BRINO or remain.
That's something a national unity government can do before end of January.

 

[daveboy]

If he does he will lose and there will be a coalition

I think you might be right....But if the Brexit party chooses not to stand in Tory strongholds and vice versa..The coalition will be Boris and Farage.

 

[Woosh]

I think you might be right....But if the Brexit party chooses not to stand in Tory strongholds and vice versa..The coalition will be Boris and Farage.

If the GE votes are all about brexit, Bojo still won't win.
It's all down to what voters hate or fear the most, that's a WTO brexit, or a 'chlorinated chicken' outcome.
They know that returning Bojo to No 10 after an October or November GE will end in WTO brexit, with or without an implementation period.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

This from Allister Heath.

"The Tory party is dead; long live the Tory party. The seismic realignment that was supposed to take place in 2016 is finally upon us, and a tougher, rougher, non-deferential conservatism is making its explosive debut.

Ruthlessly focused on the public’s priorities, its ideology is complex. In some ways, it will be more pro-capitalist and pro-freedom: especially on tax, motoring and the nanny state. It will be more conservative on law and order, defence and immigration. In yet other areas, such as health and overall public spending, it will back a larger government, as we saw in a Spending Review that increased overall expenditure by 0.5 per cent of GDP over two years.

But the biggest difference, of course, is that 31 years after Margaret Thatcher launched the modern Eurosceptic movement with her Bruges speech, her side has finally triumphed. Following the expulsion of the 21 most committed Remainers, Eurosceptics are in almost full control of the Tory party for the first time since the Fifties. If Boris Johnson’s massive, historic bet pays off – by no means certain – he will win the general election by scooping up a fresh demographic attracted by his domestic and European policies. He will then engineer a real Brexit, ensuring the period between 1973 and 2019 is remembered as a historical curiosity, an aberrant era during which the UK was conned into giving up its self-government.

As such, Remainers’ triumphalism these past two days is misplaced. Their hatred of Boris Johnson and his adviser Dominic Cummings, their inability to look outside of the Westminster bubble and their obsession with the minutiae of process is blinding them to the true state of play. The Remainers may still win in the end, of course, but only if Jeremy Corbyn becomes prime minister, laying waste to everything else many of them believe in.

Right now, Johnson and Cummings are still on a path to success, even if they have had to recalibrate their journey several times as obstacles have emerged. The situation is tense, the PM is feeling the pressure and much of the Cabinet is in a state of shock. But Boris hasn’t been “humiliated”. He hasn’t been “wrong-footed”.

The semi-prorogation didn’t “backfire”: it flushed out his hardcore opponents and allowed him to expel them. He knew he would have to do something drastic at some stage and there was no way that those committed to derailing his plans would ever have been allowed to stand under Tory colours at the election. His party was already split de facto, if not de jure; he was always leading a minority government in all but name. The sackings merely formalised this.

Part of the misunderstanding is that Remainers still see themselves as members of the natural governing class, with the Brexiteers as insolent interlopers. Such ultra-Remainers are so blinded by credentialism, by their hero worship of the likes of Kenneth Clarke – who, as chancellor, helped John Major gift power to Tony Blair – that they cannot understand why their removal actually helps Johnson.

They see the purge of their favourite Tories as a terrible loss of talent, a cataclysmic blow to the credibility of the party, its final death even; yet to Leave voters, losing anti-Brexit irreconcilables, especially overrated establishment figures, is a huge step in the right direction and proof of Boris’s seriousness.

In any case, the Prime Minister needs a party with a single message: every candidate will have to sign up to his plans. This will be the only way that he can fight off the Brexit Party. If he wins, perhaps with a slender majority, Johnson will need to be able to count on every one of his MPs.

In the first few hours after Johnson called for an election, when it became clear that MPs would seize control of Parliament, Remainers were elated: they thought they had crippled their enemy.

But they are now realising, to their horror, that their victory may be ephemeral. The MPs’ vote may not really matter; the PM is ready for an election, and he has in fact guaranteed one by making it clear that he doesn’t have a technical majority any longer. Paradoxically, weakness is strength for Boris. He might have preferred to go to the polls after Brexit, but the present path comes with its own advantages.

Hence Labour’s dithering, and the too-clever-by-half plan by some to try to outfox Johnson by delaying any vote until November or December. Combined with Parliament’s power grab, this could theoretically prevent Brexit on October 31, force Johnson to break his promise and ensure his destruction, with the help of a resurgent Brexit Party.

It won’t work: Labour will be forced to blink first. Such scheming implies Corbyn believes Johnson would win on October 15 – not a good look, as they say on Twitter. Delaying the election for months will prolong the life of a useless, unworkable, anarchical Parliament. The Government would relentlessly tell voters that Labour and the Lib Dems are blocking any progress and have decided to pay MPs not to work, reinforcing the Boris vs the establishment narrative.

Johnson may not get the blame for delaying Brexit either. Tory supporters and Leave voters increasingly hold his opponents responsible for the chaos, and that is even before he spends months repeating his mantra that Corbyn is a coward for refusing to face the electorate. The PM’s description of the Leader of the Opposition as a “chlorinated chicken” is a harbinger of things to come. Labour can’t go on refusing an election for much longer.

Last but not least, engineering a delay in Brexit would simply encourage the Government to go for broke. If they were to back a no-deal Brexit, Nigel Farage would step aside and the Leave vote would unite. I am sure those in No 10 genuinely and rightly want a deal. But they may not have a choice if furious voters begin to turn to the Brexit Party again. Do the Remainers really want to goad Downing Street in this way?

Johnson’s gamble was breathtaking in its ambition: he would take over a fatally divided Tory party with no majority, forcibly reform it in his image and gain a pro-Brexit majority. For all of the madness of the past few days, I’m still predicting that he will pull it off."

Your perception of Johnson as an ideologue, or for that matter someone who has ever had guiding principles or beliefs is so far removed from reality its beyond hysterically funny

 

[daveboy]

If the GE votes are all about brexit, Bojo still won't win.
It's all down to what voters hate or fear the most, that's a WTO brexit, or a 'chlorinated chicken' outcome.
They know that returning Bojo to No 10 after an October or November GE will end in WTO brexit, with or without an implementation period.

If the GE votes are all about brexit, Bojo still won't win.
It's all down to what voters hate or fear the most, that's a WTO brexit, or a 'chlorinated chicken' outcome.
They know that returning Bojo to No 10 after an October or November GE will end in WTO brexit, with or without an implementation period.

I hope you are right but I fear you are not. My local MP is Yvette cooper and she is hated by most of the 69% of her constituents that voted leave, Most of them would never vote Tory (Mining community) but they would vote for the Brexit party. If Boris does a deal, the Brexit party could pick up most of the Tory votes and a lot of the Labour ones.